1. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies .This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary to its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy.Find out more.
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Dismiss Notice
  3. Follow Casinomeister on Twitter | Facebook | YouTube | Casinomeister.us US Residents Click here! |  Svenska Svenska | 
Dismiss Notice
REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do diddly squat without having been registered!

At the moment you have limited access to view most discussions: you can't make contact with thousands of fellow players, affiliates, casino reps, and all sorts of other riff-raff.

Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Casinomeister here!

Seems odd?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by zman, Aug 10, 2005.

    Aug 10, 2005
  1. zman

    zman Dormant account

    Occupation:
    NA
    Location:
    Home
    This is the 17th losing sessions i have had at this casino.
     
  2. Aug 10, 2005
  3. zman

    zman Dormant account

    Occupation:
    NA
    Location:
    Home
    BTW I am playing perfect BJ.....

    Is this normal at MG casinos?
     
  4. Aug 10, 2005
  5. ftg

    ftg Banned User - bogus claim - violation of <a href="


    Your result is very normal in general.
     
  6. Aug 10, 2005
  7. jamiester

    jamiester Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Overnight dispatcher
    Location:
    Hampshire County, MA
    normal?

    I count 4 wins and 16 losses. I know it is a very small sample but that still is a pretty horrible result. What are the odds of hitting 4 in 20 even bets?

    I get 9690 * .5 to the 20th power

    err.. I think I get a probability of .00924 or just less then 1 in 100 for 4 wins in 20 tries at 50/50 odds. My stats is rusty so maybe someone will correct me, but a 1 in 100 result is not that amazingly bad actually.
     
  8. Aug 10, 2005
  9. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    The probability for 4 wins or less on 20 bets with 50 % win probability is 0.59 %.
     
  10. Aug 10, 2005
  11. jamiester

    jamiester Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Overnight dispatcher
    Location:
    Hampshire County, MA
    thanks...

    Is my calculation correct for exactly 4 wins in 20 tries?

    Also could you show me the caclulation you did to get .0059 for at most 4 wins? Sorry I guess this should've been a PM :oops:
     
  12. Aug 10, 2005
  13. raol

    raol Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Sweden
    No, the probability for exactly 4 wins is 0.462 %. You seem to have missed a factor of 2.

    The probability for exaktly k wins in n trials if the win probability is p is
    n!/(k!*(n-k)!) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
     
  14. Aug 17, 2005
  15. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    MG Blackjack

    I am running an experiment on this game for 100,000 hands. I am not looking at number of wins, but the overall outcome of 100,000 hands of perfect BJ with unit stake per deal.
    I have subdivided the trial into 20,000 hand blocks, and tabulated the change in balance after each 1000 hands (this will show the streaks, good or bad, and the 20,000 and 100,000 hand results will show the overall results).

    The interesting calculation will come at the end though, how close to expectation is the end result, and is it statistically significant in terms of identifying a bias in favour of the dealer (or player!) in the long term.

    Vegas Strip, played perfectly, is the closest to 100% payout found online, and MG swear by the random nature of the games, and Price Waterhouse have verified publically that specifically MG Blackjack is random over the long term, and also does not show bias over the medium term.

    This may have changed though, as MG updated the games, and have updated the BJ tables strategy guides. My experiment is using this updated table, which is verified on wizardofodds and correct. The MG table has a few extras though, as the strategy can vary according to the number of cards present in the players hand, not just the value of the hand against the dealers up-card.
    If the game is random, I should lose some of my bonus, possibly all of it!

    Can anyone post the probability that I will end this 100,000 hand experiment at MG Vegas Strip in profit on my unit stake of 1 per initial deal?
     
  16. Aug 17, 2005
  17. scrollock

    scrollock Senior Member

    Occupation:
    google
    Location:
    boro, uk
    from my recent results at MG's that is very normal.

    i'm glad to know that its not just me that has noticed the difference in MG BJ recently, there has been some kind of tweaking going.

    my last 10 sessions on MG BJ, all of which have been 500+ hands have shown a loss ratio of at least 5%.

    i.e. my best session out of the 10 was a still loss of 5%
     

Share This Page