Probabilities

[brianzz]

Programmed random? NOT

What is non-sense about it? I hate you tell you but it's called a random number generator for lack of a better name. How can it be random if it's programmed? Has nothing to do with coins. It's programmed to win a majority of the time for the casino but in short terms some RNGs win for the player more than was played in the machine. It's a proven fact, I've seen data sheets from machines that do it with my own eyes. This might not happen at online casinos because most slot machines have returns set so low that something like this will never happen. At real casinos where players expect competition casinos have to put machines on the floor that have a hold of 1% or 2%, online casinos don't have to worry about this because they know other players can't walk up and watch you play this machine so they can get away with machines that hold 20% 30% 40%, they don't have to answer to anyone so they can practically do what they want.

Online casinos can throw those PWC reports up every month but I'm not impressed by that, in fact it proves nothing to me with the exception of adding bounses and progressive wins can balance the books. Now if a casino wants to publish a monthly report represents depostied monies - bonuses given by the casino = actual coin in + wins to the player - progressive jackpot wins = actual return of the machine. Awhile back I noticed the PWC reports showed a small spike in "returns" when several casinos were offering buy $50 get $200 free and a little less spike when they offered "play an hour on us" for a deposit bonus.

 

[BlackjackInfo]

Perhaps I wasn't clear in what I was contesting in your post...
Yes, games sometimes pay unusually high amounts. In your example, a month where the aggregate was 250%. That's randomness for you.

What I disagree with is that the machine will subsequently "tighten up and get it back later". Unless the casino management changes the game to be tighter, the game's not going to change it's expected hold. If the game is set for an average return of 97% and one month it has a 200% payout instead, the next month's AVERAGE return is still the same 97%. Of course, in reality it may pay out 90% or 200% or 500%. The more play the game gets, the more likely the result will be near the expected 97%.

Steering this thread ever further from the original topic, I'll point out an interesting irony that results from this fact. Many Microgaming casinos publish the payout percentages from PWC. If we assume that all Microgaming slot payouts are set the same (I don't know if that's true or not, but it seems likely), then we're virtually guaranteed to find the highest PWC-audited payout percentage at the less popular casinos.

Why? The popular casinos get enough play that their game payout percentage should be near the theoretical hold, while the casinos with fewer players stand a better chance of bucking the odds and posting a big payout number.

 

[Zoozie]

Here is the newest version of the slot analyzer program and it is now fully functional.
The GUI is still butt-ugly because I am not a GUI programmer.

It comes with the following slots: Tally Ho, Thunderstruck and Loaded.
But you can always define you own from scratch.

And it has 3 functions:
1) Analyze payout% excact
2) find maximum win combination for a given slot/number of lines played
3) Full simulation. (Do a few million autospins, and see how much you lost, or maximum bankroll and when it happened etc.)

In next version it will be able to simulate Harveys. I need to change the core program so it can handle the left to right 'scatters' which is a new type of symbols. But it will be at least 2 weeks before this is ready. I also want to add a few more functions.

Then I will probably declare it finished.

Please report any input/feedback/bugs before the final release. I just need 1 or 2 people to give it a small test.

Unzip all files (it creates a new folder). No virus/adware/registry entries. Pure Java!

Zoozie

 

[tiger2006]

Great work.

Can you do the same with the Moonshine Slot?

LG tiger2006

 

[Awai]

Hi,
not sure whether it matters, I use a tool called Hypercam (www.google.com) to create Screenshots and Screenshot movies . Saves all spins or any motion on screen as AVI/MPG movie including chats with support folks or whatever
Cheers
Feif

very interesting topic guys...i've just run a test using screen cap software on my editsuite (i run a multimedia company) and am able to frame accurately scan the reels - i did the test with Thor but in theory it should work with an online slot which doesnt "mask" the spin with cartoony fx. i'll check the layout i create tomorrow against a 50 spin play test - if the results are of interest or use i'll post them here.

in theory if it works it'll cut down the play time for "cracking" the reel sequence to about 20mins...

Awai.

 

[Zoozie]

Okie, here is an update.

I improved the program to handle 'left to right' scatters since another member had found the reels on 'Harveys'. The program did work, however it was useless since there are two unknowns in 'Harveys'.

1) The number of free spins won
2) The multiplier.

To simulate 'Harvery' I needed the average of these two. (actually I only need the product of these two). However the number has very high influence on the payout and even small changes can make the payout% jump 5%. But I found out that this number was much lower than I had expected. So if you feel you win 6 or 10 free spins all the time and the multiplier is rarely higher than *2 or *4, then it is by design!

Next, about Moonshine.
I do not think Moonshine has the same problem. Can anyone confirm the
number of different squares in the bonus picking game always is the same?
Ie.
2 stop
4 multiplier +1
9 freespin +1

If the picking game is fair I can find the average by mathematics.
But I need someone to find the reels of Moonshine first.

Many of the new slots have new features and it would take me too long to
implement them all, and the simulator was just intended to pry out the mechanics of MG slots.

Still the reels of 'Isis' is #1 on my wish list. The program only needs a very small change (20,25,30 freespins won) instead of always the same number.
And 'Isis' is also one of the few slots I ever play.

Zoozie

 

[tiger2006]

@Zoozie

Here is a good site to see information about moonshine and other slots
Old / Expired Link

or Old / Expired Link

LG tiger2006

 

[Zoozie]

@Zoozie

Here is a good site to see information about moonshine and other slots
Old / Expired Link

or Old / Expired Link

LG tiger2006

Thanks, but it is really no use. It is just the paytable.
I need the reels. (or actually just how many times each symbols occour on each reel)

 

[MrVan]

Thanks, but it is really no use.

Not true.... the mystery food is crayfish

 

[tiger2006]

What about your project now?
Can you do the same with the RTG Series Real Slots?

LG tiger2006

 

[Zoozie]

What about your project now?
Can you do the same with the RTG Series Real Slots?

LG tiger2006

A few people have complained the program was a little hard to use, and this is probably right since the 'help' section was never written. Maybe I should do that and release it again. And also explain what the different numbers in the output means and how to read them.

The RTG slots can be analysed right away if they are standard free-spin/multiplier. But it can take hours to find the reels, but you are welcome. Before you start, you better post what slot you are cracking the reels for, because then I can check it is one of those the program can handle as it is now. RTG slots are not that hard to find the reels for as you can often see a sequence of 5 symbols at a time. (one above and below the reels if you are fast). Solving the puzzle from fragments this big is easy.



Zoozie

 

[Lord_Have_Mercy]

Zooie, wouldn't it be easier if one would capture the spins on video and play them back in slow motion and write down the patterns?

 

[Zoozie]

Zooie, wouldn't it be easier if one would capture the spins on video and play them back in slow motion and write down the patterns?

For the old MG slots the graphics are blurred, it not something moving fast.
So it does not really work here.

For the new style MG slots (Witch Doctor etc.) the symbols are actually moving and can be caught on video. The same goes for RTG slots.

 

[Lord_Have_Mercy]

You're a good man, Zooie! You are very smart. Question? Do you actually gamble online? I havent seen many Winning Screen Shots from you. But I would bet that you do pretty well if you do. You seem to have the knowledge of numbers down pack! I bet you know just went to bet $20 on that up coming spin.

 

[bridgehajen]

Interesting thread ..

Oh, memories

I did some work myself a few years back figuring out the reels in Thunderstruck. I managed to get the reels but I never really got my program to properly calculate the result like Zoozie did in this thread. I suspect that the bug was in the calculation of the free spins but I never really had the time or enthusiasm to debug it. I'm happy to see that you guys made it all the way. Also, it's nice to see that the payout is about 95% which is not too awful for a slot machine.

I had planned to analyze all of the multiline slots so I did a lot of automation; one program to press the spin button and analyze screenshots; one program to string together all the three symbol subsequence for a given reel; one program to do a thorough analysis (never quite finished this one). The result didn't really please me as it wasn't as automated as I would have liked it to be. The Java code is now hidden under three inches of dust and for all I know it's quite hideous ...

Anyway, kudos to Zoozie for his contributions to this thread. I take it that you work professionally within software development? I also take it that you must be an "educated player" with a very good understanding of strategies and expected returns ..

 

[Zoozie]

You're a good man, Zooie! You are very smart. Question? Do you actually gamble online? I havent seen many Winning Screen Shots from you.

I do gamble online a lot - mostly playing Video-poker and NL cash-games.

I only play slots if I get a bonus since I feel the 5% house egde is not really worth the entertainment though it is fun. But since Big Dollar casino opened I play a lot more slots since they give 100% bonuses every week. If online slots with payout >98% existed, then I might play slots without bonuses for entertainment. I also only play 5-reel slots since 3-reel slots do not excite me at all.

I have posted a lot of screenshots. I just only post a screenshot from slots if it is something really special. 5 scatters/wilds of 1000+ bet-size wins. Recently I also posted a pat RF from 10-line VP.

Oh, memories I managed to get the reels but I never really got my program to properly calculate the result like Zoozie did in this thread. I suspect that the bug was in the calculation of the free spins but I never really had the time or enthusiasm to debug it.

Anyway, kudos to Zoozie for his contributions to this thread. I take it that you work professionally within software development? I also take it that you must be an "educated player" with a very good understanding of strategies and expected returns ..

Hi! I remember you from casino.dk, right?

Earlier in this thread you can read how to calculcate the contribution to the payout% from the freespins. If retriggers was allowed this was not trivial. I do work with software development, but unfortunately not gaming/casino software. It would be more fun.

I rarely play a game if I do not have +EV, which you can get with bonuses. Only exception is VP, I can live with the small house egde for the entertainment value.

Zoozie

 

[bridgehajen]

Hi! I remember you from casino.dk, right?

Yes, I have been quite active on the Danish forums but not so much these days since I haven't placed any bets anywhere for about a year. Still, the math of casino bonuses thrills me. Besides, I'll be moving to Norway shortly, and I suppose that this will bring some new bonus opportunities.

Earlier in this thread you can read how to calculcate the contribution to the payout% from the freespins. If retriggers was allowed this was not trivial. I do work with software development, but unfortunately not gaming/casino software. It would be more fun.

I work in software development as well. I quite like doing a bit of software in my spare time, especially the part about designing things from the bottom. At the job, I'm mainly dealing with maintenance projects where I can only design a widget here and a gizmo there. Alas, spare time is a scarce commodity.

 

[Mousey]

I do gamble online a lot - mostly playing Video-poker and NL cash-games.

I only play slots if I get a bonus since I feel the 5% house egde is not really worth the entertainment though it is fun. But since Big Dollar casino opened I play a lot more slots since they give 100% bonuses every week. If online slots with payout >98% existed, then I might play slots without bonuses for entertainment. I also only play 5-reel slots since 3-reel slots do not excite me at all.

Zoozie

Not to me, they don't. They have sent me 0 offers since I signed up and deposited (losing deposit & sign up bonus in record time, I might add). I even made another bonus free deposit after signing up but still no offers. Are these guys affiliated with Grand Prive by any chance?

 

[Zoozie]

A few people wanted the sources code, so here it is.

But I still plan to make a release where the help-file is actually not empty.

Zoozie

 

[jamiester]

yes!!!

im pretty sure that the spin is just a graphic, and that the reels are not actually spinning - the outcome has already been decided as soon as the spin button has been pressed

unless you can prove otherwise vinylweatherman

You are exactly right. The reels aren't really spinning. It is just animation. Much easier just to write down the results of each spin. The sequences will become clear after a while, especially if you are good at puzzles. NOTE: the animated reels must = the virtual reels for this method to work. Many sites (Slotland, Lasseters) don't show the virtual reels.

 

[jamiester]

ohhh

For the old MG slots the graphics are blurred, it not something moving fast.
So it does not really work here.

For the new style MG slots (Witch Doctor etc.) the symbols are actually moving and can be caught on video. The same goes for RTG slots.

I did not know this. That would make mapping easier.

 

[jamiester]

just wanted to say excellent!

This is Real information. I posted the same about a year ago (but in much less attractive fashion and about a much less popular casino) and I am glad to see that people have gotten down to actually figuring out the underlying structure (virtual reels) of slots and, hence, the payouts. Very well done. This is excellent stuff:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy

 

[Zoozie]

After a long break I worked 1 hour more on the program. I am trying to add so the number of scatters give different number of freespins . Ie. 'Isis/Madhatters' style. The problem I am having is with the math behind calculating the exact average number of freespins each feature, but maybe I will make progress.

However I did simulate(so not exact values, but close!) Thunderstruck with the following modification:
3 scatters= 15 freespins
4 scatters= 20 freespins
5 scatters= 25 freespins

And I was surprised to see how little effect this actually had.

With the modification:
Average #spins/feature:17.07
Average feature win(in bet size):35.98
Payout%: 95,5-95.6%

Normal Thunderstruck:
Average #spins/feature:16.76
Average feature win(in bet size)::35.33
Payout%~95,05%

However changing the number of freespins won with just 3 scatters does really effect the payout, but the casinos can change the number for 4 and 5 scatters without changing payout% much.

Zoozie

 

[vinylweatherman]

You are exactly right. The reels aren't really spinning. It is just animation. Much easier just to write down the results of each spin. The sequences will become clear after a while, especially if you are good at puzzles. NOTE: the animated reels must = the virtual reels for this method to work. Many sites (Slotland, Lasseters) don't show the virtual reels.

In the MGS files, there are two sets of symbols held for each slot, one set are blurred, and one not. I suspect the blurred ones may well be the actual virtual reels, but with the blurred symbols being used until the reels come to rest, when they are substitited with the clearly defined ones.

 

[Zoozie]

I have now finally made it into an applet so it is easy accessible and I can update it with the latest versions etc.

It still needs a little improvement. Etc. a progress bar when analyzing. And I needs to write something in the help files also. I now have 3 gambling applets on my page.

Btw. what happened to the www.gamblingtools.com homepage? It used to have several usefull applets like mine as well. In fact I wrote to them 1 year ago offering them my slot analyzer, but I never got any reply and a few months later the page was just the gambling link/affiliate site it is now.

Well, here is the slot analyzer in applet form:
Old / Expired Link

Zoozie