my horse racing system in the uk.

[philderby]

stay positive mu friends

im sure that tomorrow the price will be better, and now we have £101 bank! remember rome wasnt built in a day, let you know the next horse by 12.30 pm tomorrow..

 

[BingoT]

A commercial break til the next race.
I think it's time to have a good smoke after a great thread about horse racing.

 

[philderby]

A commercial break til the next race.
I think it's time to have a good smoke after a great thread about horse racing.
View attachment 41909

hahahaaaa

 

[Andy Walker]

A commercial break til the next race.
I think it's time to have a good smoke after a great thread about horse racing.
View attachment 41909

With all due respect his system is no worse than Aries revolving around Uranus with Libra charging in for balance?

 

[Mozaik]

im sure that tomorrow the price will be better, and now we have £101 bank! remember rome wasnt built in a day, let you know the next horse by 12.30 pm tomorrow..

So basically you're risking 20 english pounds to win 1 pound? In my opinion such bets are really not worth it, because sooner or later it will go wrong. And I doubt you will win 20 times in a row under those odds before your horse fails.

 

[Andy Walker]

So basically you're risking 20 english pounds to win 1 pound? In my opinion such bets are really not worth it, because sooner or later it will go wrong. And I doubt you will win 20 times in a row under those odds before your horse fails.

The strange thing is gambling is all relative to your bankroll and willingness to risk.

If for instance you earn £200 a week and wagered this and won £20 then we obviously see a 10% return.

If you were to bet £2 and achieved a 20 pence return then they are the same?

Does this make sense?

 

[Nifty29]

This is a horse that is racing in an event way below it's class. The bookies know this, and that unless something exceptional happens, it is sure to win. My Dad would spot such races, but would rarely bother with them.
The problem is that just having 2 losers at these odds and 18 winners would still leave you with a loss.

The other thing to watch out for in the bigger races are horses entered as "pacemakers" for a trainers prime selection. They are pushed hard from the start to set the pace, and often lead for much of the way, however they quickly fade in the final stages, often coming in close to last. They can win though, because the jockey cannot deliberately slow them down to make way for another (the stewards would spot it and launch an inquiry), and it could be on better form than the trainer thought, and actually follow through and take the race.

Ummm....ANYONE with any basic knowledge of horse racing considers things such as class, sectionals, metro/rural, distances, track grade history, etc etc. I mean....maybe that's why it was 1/12...??

Rocky also pointed out....and its a very real consideration....that dishonesty and cheating/fixing still goes on everywhere in some form or another, which presents yet another obstacle to the "system" malarkey.

I'm still stunned that people who claim to be intelligent think that there IS some form of money making foolproof system to beat the bookies. Its not too far from being a "flat earther" in my book. Just astonishing.

The fact that Vinyls dad (RIP) took FIFTY years to develop his system and it STILL didn't/doesn't work gives any logical person a HUGE clue as to the validity of punting systems.

Ever been to the races? You'll notice that pretty much all the expensive cars are owned by the bookies, owners, jockeys and trainers. Ever wondered why that might be?

Bookies are smart....the odd one that isn't doesn't last a month. All they have to do is set THEIR odds LOWER than the REAL odds on the good horses and they cannot lose.....and things like offering over the odds on good horses they know can't/won't win due to insider knowledge etc.

The term "mug punter" is very apt, as they just do not have the inside knowledge and personal contacts and sources that the bookies etc do, so they are flying blind half of the time.....and half of the time is all a good bookie needs to take their money.

 

[philderby]

todays selectiom

good morning followers! yesterday I made a mistake, the return would of been £2 from a £20 wager. today is 2.00 at yarmouth and the selection is superboat @ 1/4 (paddypower & betfair) so following the system 20% of £102 is a stake of £20.40

 

[BingoT]

Rock Up
Superboot
Honeymoon Express
Or
Rock Up
Honeymoon Express
Superboot

 

[philderby]

lost today that gives a new balance of £81.60 better luck with the selection tomorrow ^^

 

[vinylweatherman]

lost today that gives a new balance of £81.60 better luck with the selection tomorrow ^^

This is the problem with a system that relies on "dead certs" that have very short odds. It will take quite a few winners to claw back this loss. It's like a Martingale system for the horses, large bets for a small return when successful, but where a loss can be a serious setback.

A better system would target horses that have been underestimated by both punters and bookies, and who beat the "dead cert" odds on favourite in a race. To succeed, you have to be at the track on the day, and have an in depth knowledge of horses as animals, looking at them before the race to judge how they are on the day, and whether they are likely to overperform, or underperform, expectations the bookmakers have used in determining the odds they offer. Most of the "pro" punters visit the track in person, and place substantial bets at a number of different bookies to ensure they get the best odds. Some even have teams placing bets at the bookies on their behalf so that bookies cannot easily figure out that one punter has placed a very big bet, which might frighten them into slashing the odds, fearing that inside information has been involved.

Bookies DO get stung, but usually it's where all the favourites win at a big event, and there are loads of winners of relatively small amounts not balanced by a long odds horse that hardly anyone has backed winning and ensuring the bookie has made far more from the losing bets on the favourites than they have paid out on the few winners who backed the long odds selection.

 

[philderby]

I want to carry on but i feel that from some of the posts are quite negative, so what im going to do, if you are genuinely interested PM me and I will send out PMs daily from now on regarding the daily selections. happy betting

 

[Nifty29]

This is the problem with a system that relies on "dead certs" that have very short odds. It will take quite a few winners to claw back this loss. It's like a Martingale system for the horses, large bets for a small return when successful, but where a loss can be a serious setback.

A better system would target horses that have been underestimated by both punters and bookies, and who beat the "dead cert" odds on favourite in a race. To succeed, you have to be at the track on the day, and have an in depth knowledge of horses as animals, looking at them before the race to judge how they are on the day, and whether they are likely to overperform, or underperform, expectations the bookmakers have used in determining the odds they offer. Most of the "pro" punters visit the track in person, and place substantial bets at a number of different bookies to ensure they get the best odds. Some even have teams placing bets at the bookies on their behalf so that bookies cannot easily figure out that one punter has placed a very big bet, which might frighten them into slashing the odds, fearing that inside information has been involved.

Bookies DO get stung, but usually it's where all the favourites win at a big event, and there are loads of winners of relatively small amounts not balanced by a long odds horse that hardly anyone has backed winning and ensuring the bookie has made far more from the losing bets on the favourites than they have paid out on the few winners who backed the long odds selection.

Thankyou for finally admitting that "systems" for the home punter are a complete waste of time.

I know for a fact that pro punters DO have their own computer analysis software....however it is only a PART of how they ply their trade, and they cannot make a living relying on that alone. If they could...they would be doing it.

I want to carry on but i feel that from some of the posts are quite negative, so what im going to do, if you are genuinely interested PM me and I will send out PMs daily from now on regarding the daily selections. happy betting

To be fair Phil, if you're going to post something about systems etc, you should expect a fair amount of negativity and opposite POVs. In fact, it applies to just about anything anyone posts in a forum.

I wouldn't mind putting some money on how long it will take you to get back to $100 taking incredibly short odds runners.

 

[just play]

Ummm....ANYONE with any basic knowledge of horse racing considers things such as class, sectionals, metro/rural, distances, track grade history, etc etc. I mean....maybe that's why it was 1/12...??

This applies to greyhound racing as well.

Blood lines are the most important. Which class they are running in and why. (had a bad last race, got knocked over, etc.) Distance is also another important factor, some dogs do better with short races, some better in long. Hubby could post about this in length better than I could. He has written articles for some greyhound sites about his charting system. He also does a "pick of the day" just for fun.

My husband has been charting greyhound races for about 30 years, he is one of the best around, he plays in contests and to date he has won the same contest 7 years in a row. (That's not by accident, or luck, his "system" "charting abilities" works.) And this is with the "professional" charters, race announcers, people that have been in the business forever, etc.

He went and met some guys last year with my dad at a track, one guy does make money at this, but he bets $300-$500 per race, not something we can afford.

Unlike horse racing, greyhounds are running on their own, no one holding them back, no human interference. Can they be fixed, of course there are ways. BUT, there are proven charters who know what they are doing and do very well.


***Now after saying all that, he makes barely any money from it, the favorites do no pay well. If he does a $24 bet, he may actually lose money. You have to pick the winner and hope that a long shot is in the money. (he only plays trifectas) The contests he does are for free, and you don't win any money. Except one contest that's coming up again this year. I forget how much it is, but again it's not big money. ***


edit...

I know for a fact that pro punters DO have their own computer analysis software....however it is only a PART of how they ply their trade, and they cannot make a living relying on that alone. If they could...they would be doing it.

In greyhound racing, yes you CAN make a living at it. Hubby knows many. Also, hubby uses no analysis software at all, it's all by hand and in his head.

(Not sure if any of this is relevant to horse racing)

 

[just play]

So of course I was wrong...hahahaha. This is hubbys response when I asked him what is important in your charting.

Most important thing when charting on greyhounds is...post position, early speed (because the percentage of dogs that are 1st, 2nd, 3rd to the turn is high in regards to finishing first or second) class (because there's grade distinctions) form, especially recent form, racing lane, track variant (gives a day to day numerical value of track speed, very few people use this)

Some people use...age, weight, kennel, winning percentage.

He also informed me that besides his 7 year winning record in that yearly contest, he also holds an all time win contest. There are too many to mention, he's rattling off a bunch.

His thoughts on "systems" are only the elite can do it. They need time, consistent wagering system, money.

I asked how come you don't make money at this and how come you don't do it for a living...he doesn't have the time, (you really need A LOT of time)he's better at handicapping than wagering. Those are 2 distinct things, just because you are good at handicapping doesn't mean that your going to make money, you need to take that information and put it into a wagering system and be successful at it.

Again, I'm not sure if this is relevant to horse racing, I just thought I would throw it out there because "systems" do work in greyhound racing. And if you ask the professionals they will tell you nothing. Literally they will give you NO INFORMATION.

 

[vinylweatherman]

So of course I was wrong...hahahaha. This is hubbys response when I asked him what is important in your charting.

Most important thing when charting on greyhounds is...post position, early speed (because the percentage of dogs that are 1st, 2nd, 3rd to the turn is high in regards to finishing first or second) class (because there's grade distinctions) form, especially recent form, racing lane, track variant (gives a day to day numerical value of track speed, very few people use this)

Some people use...age, weight, kennel, winning percentage.

He also informed me that besides his 7 year winning record in that yearly contest, he also holds an all time win contest. There are too many to mention, he's rattling off a bunch.

His thoughts on "systems" are only the elite can do it. They need time, consistent wagering system, money.

I asked how come you don't make money at this and how come you don't do it for a living...he doesn't have the time, (you really need A LOT of time)he's better at handicapping than wagering. Those are 2 distinct things, just because you are good at handicapping doesn't mean that your going to make money, you need to take that information and put it into a wagering system and be successful at it.

Again, I'm not sure if this is relevant to horse racing, I just thought I would throw it out there because "systems" do work in greyhound racing. And if you ask the professionals they will tell you nothing. Literally they will give you NO INFORMATION.

Please thank your husband for referring to me as "the elite"

 

[just play]

Please thank your husband for referring to me as "the elite"

Hehehehehe.


Additional thoughts from hubby (now I got him going he'll be talking about this all night now)


He won a satellite tournament consisting of 200 people, where out of 15 races he had 9 wins and 4 seconds. That got him into the greyhound handicapping world series, where he finished 11th.

On his 7 yearly titles, each month was at a different track, yet he used the same system.

 

[Nifty29]

This applies to greyhound racing as well.

Blood lines are the most important. Which class they are running in and why. (had a bad last race, got knocked over, etc.) Distance is also another important factor, some dogs do better with short races, some better in long. Hubby could post about this in length better than I could. He has written articles for some greyhound sites about his charting system. He also does a "pick of the day" just for fun.

My husband has been charting greyhound races for about 30 years, he is one of the best around, he plays in contests and to date he has won the same contest 7 years in a row. (That's not by accident, or luck, his "system" "charting abilities" works.) And this is with the "professional" charters, race announcers, people that have been in the business forever, etc.

He went and met some guys last year with my dad at a track, one guy does make money at this, but he bets $300-$500 per race, not something we can afford.

Unlike horse racing, greyhounds are running on their own, no one holding them back, no human interference. Can they be fixed, of course there are ways. BUT, there are proven charters who know what they are doing and do very well.


***Now after saying all that, he makes barely any money from it, the favorites do no pay well. If he does a $24 bet, he may actually lose money. You have to pick the winner and hope that a long shot is in the money. (he only plays trifectas) The contests he does are for free, and you don't win any money. Except one contest that's coming up again this year. I forget how much it is, but again it's not big money. ***


edit...

In greyhound racing, yes you CAN make a living at it. Hubby knows many. Also, hubby uses no analysis software at all, it's all by hand and in his head.

(Not sure if any of this is relevant to horse racing)

Some parts are relevant, but dogs behave in a predictable manner. Also, horse racing involves the human element of jockeys, and involves VERY much larger amounts of money....which means stiffer competition.

Add to that the normally larger fields, and handicapping etc, and you have a form of racing with FAR more permutations and factors than greyhounds.

Its much easier to make tables for the hounds as you can predict what kind of start they will have according to their box draw, and also what the other dogs are likely to do and hence whether your dog will likely be checked at the first turn etc. A dog that might be a HUGE chance from box 1 might struggle from box 5 etc. Whilst barrier draws are sometimes important with horses, they have jockeys who can race them in such a way that negates a poor barrier draw as much as possible....a dog will just do what is usually does, which is why tables etc are much easier to rely on for that form of racing.

You'll also find that those who employ a system seldom reveal their true results. Its very easy for someone to fudge figures or only talk about wins (like some here do with slots). I would be skeptical of anyone who made a long term reasonable profit from plain stats systems, because they don't allow for many variables, which is why the pros are at the track at 4am each day and why they sometimes never lay a bet all day at a meeting.

Systems should be treated as a bit of fun, as the time you need to invest in maintaining one is seldom covered by your long term profit.

 

[just play]

I want to carry on but i feel that from some of the posts are quite negative, so what im going to do, if you are genuinely interested PM me and I will send out PMs daily from now on regarding the daily selections. happy betting

Why don't you check out some horse racing forums? I don't mean stop posting here, I mean so you can talk about horses with other people who enjoy it as much as you. My husband enjoys it immensely, talks with the other guys about similar interests. Something I don't think you will find so much of here. So then you can talk about horses there, and casinos here.

I come from a family of racing lovers. My dad owned race horses in the 80's and early 90's, my brother raced his '69 Camero, and my husband and father own greyhounds currently.


To quote Nifty

Systems should be treated as a bit of fun, as the time you need to invest in maintaining one is seldom covered by your long term profit

Hubby disagrees with this very much. He has many friends in the greyhound business (after being in the business for over 10 years) he started naming all the people who do indeed make money in the long term, (that's their job) he went on for some time. Your opinion is these systems don't work, and that's your opinion, nothing anyone can do or say to change your mind. But when someone is in this business (I'm assuming your not) says these systems work, and don't work a "regular" job, well, they must be doing something right, not just getting lucky.

I agree with you on which is "easier", it's of course dogs, no human involvement.

Hubby did another contest this week of over 300 people for money and finished 10th tonight, he needed to be in the top 3 to receive money. That's not luck. He does what you say...he does it for fun and maybe a little money. I asked him what he thought his winning percentage was over 30 or so years (I've only known him 14) he said 40-50%. The average person like him is about 33%. So he does do this for fun, not to make money.

 

[Nifty29]

Why don't you check out some horse racing forums? I don't mean stop posting here, I mean so you can talk about horses with other people who enjoy it as much as you. My husband enjoys it immensely, talks with the other guys about similar interests. Something I don't think you will find so much of here. So then you can talk about horses there, and casinos here.

I come from a family of racing lovers. My dad owned race horses in the 80's and early 90's, my brother raced his '69 Camero, and my husband and father own greyhounds currently.


To quote Nifty



Hubby disagrees with this very much. He has many friends in the greyhound business (after being in the business for over 10 years) he started naming all the people who do indeed make money in the long term, (that's their job) he went on for some time. Your opinion is these systems don't work, and that's your opinion, nothing anyone can do or say to change your mind. But when someone is in this business (I'm assuming your not) says these systems work, and don't work a "regular" job, well, they must be doing something right, not just getting lucky.

I agree with you on which is "easier", it's of course dogs, no human involvement.

Hubby did another contest this week of over 300 people for money and finished 10th tonight, he needed to be in the top 3 to receive money. That's not luck. He does what you say...he does it for fun and maybe a little money. I asked him what he thought his winning percentage was over 30 or so years (I've only known him 14) he said 40-50%. The average person like him is about 33%. So he does do this for fun, not to make money.

There is a huge difference between a 'System", like VWM and others have touted, and actually studying the form intensely, going to all the meets, getting to know the people, getting to know the trainers etc etc.

The people your hubby refers to would NOT be true "systems" punters. What these people are is professional gamblers, who, as you said, make a living out of it. The stuff the Vinyl and co are on about is NOT what professional punters do.....tables and numbers only count for a portion of what a professional punter considers. I know, because I have one in the family who has made a lot of money, but he works HARD and it has cost him his family.

You are comparing apples with oranges here.

One also cannot judge one's ability as a pro punter who consistently makes money on occasional contests based on specific events over a short period. Unless you hubby has kept meticulous records of every bet, he cannot know his true win rate. Also, win rate isn't all what it's cracked up to be either, as if most of your winners are short-priced (and any decent hound IS short-priced most of the time), your bet amounts have to be large to make a worthwhile profit...which means losses cost a LOT.

Again, participating in a "who picks the most winners" contest with NO money amounts involved is a VERY different animal to actually placing your own cash at risk and knowing how much to place to be an overall winner etc.

The world is full of successful pro punters...they are kept in business by the 99.9% who are mug punters..including those who use only stats and numbers to pick winners i.e. a SYSTEM player. A good example is phil's system. He puts 20% of his bankroll on a 1/12 odds horse of which he most likely knows very little about save for what's in the newspaper etc. It's based on very short odds runners and mathematics etc. Pro punters DO keep meticulous data about results and runners etc, but it is only one TOOL amongst many that they use to be successful.

 

[just play]

There is a huge difference between a 'System", like VWM and others have touted, and actually studying the form intensely, going to all the meets, getting to know the people, getting to know the trainers etc etc.

The people your hubby refers to would NOT be true "systems" punters. What these people are is professional gamblers, who, as you said, make a living out of it. The stuff the Vinyl and co are on about is NOT what professional punters do.....tables and numbers only count for a portion of what a professional punter considers. I know, because I have one in the family who has made a lot of money, but he works HARD and it has cost him his family.

You are comparing apples with oranges here.

One also cannot judge one's ability as a pro punter who consistently makes money on occasional contests based on specific events over a short period. Unless you hubby has kept meticulous records of every bet, he cannot know his true win rate. Also, win rate isn't all what it's cracked up to be either, as if most of your winners are short-priced (and any decent hound IS short-priced most of the time), your bet amounts have to be large to make a worthwhile profit...which means losses cost a LOT.

Again, participating in a "who picks the most winners" contest with NO money amounts involved is a VERY different animal to actually placing your own cash at risk and knowing how much to place to be an overall winner etc.

The world is full of successful pro punters...they are kept in business by the 99.9% who are mug punters..including those who use only stats and numbers to pick winners i.e. a SYSTEM player. A good example is phil's system. He puts 20% of his bankroll on a 1/12 odds horse of which he most likely knows very little about save for what's in the newspaper etc. It's based on very short odds runners and mathematics etc. Pro punters DO keep meticulous data about results and runners etc, but it is only one TOOL amongst many that they use to be successful.

Hubbys at work so my answer may be different than his, lol. He of course knows wayyyy more than I do.

I wasn't really comparing anything, just posting about what hubby does and who he knows. I think you misunderstood the winning percentage part. Before he was married his winning percentage was even higher. (again all about time) And it's small bucks. No he doesn't keep meticulous records, as I said he does it for fun, and bets very small. But I'd assume it's pretty simple mathematics to figure it out, when I asked him he said his percentage without skipping a beat, so he must know. He also came up with the average guys percentage without skipping a beat.

He's a numbers/percentage guy.
I don't why you go on saying he has no idea about his winning percentage because he hasn't kept meticulous records, it really doesn't matter if he was a few off does it? (instead of 40-50% say it was really 40-45%) He isn't boasting about how he made millions, he is saying he doesn't make much money at all. (we don't have the money to make big bucks) We were talking about his system and that it works, I have no idea what the professionals do, but I'm sure he does.

I already said earlier that my husband said handicapping and betting are different. He's better at handicapping. But if you think holding a record for 7 straight years in one contest isn't good, or isn't special because he isn't betting real money, then so be it. He and I are very proud of that as we should be.

Keep in mind he nor I say he is a professional, I/he, are just sharing his experiences. I have no idea about VWM or Phil, but I do have an idea about my husband. I would say he is a professional handicapper, if there's such a thing, lol, not sure if he would say that, he's a pretty humble guy.

You always say on here people come to you asking questions about online casinos, he's the you on his sites. He even goes a bit further being asked to write articles. He's that good.

 

[Nifty29]

Hubbys at work so my answer may be different than his, lol. He of course knows wayyyy more than I do.

I wasn't really comparing anything, just posting about what hubby does and who he knows. I think you misunderstood the winning percentage part. Before he was married his winning percentage was even higher. (again all about time) And it's small bucks. No he doesn't keep meticulous records, as I said he does it for fun, and bets very small. But I'd assume it's pretty simple mathematics to figure it out, when I asked him he said his percentage without skipping a beat, so he must know. He also came up with the average guys percentage without skipping a beat.

He's a numbers/percentage guy.
I don't why you go on saying he has no idea about his winning percentage because he hasn't kept meticulous records, it really doesn't matter if he was a few off does it? (instead of 40-50% say it was really 40-45%) He isn't boasting about how he made millions, he is saying he doesn't make much money at all. (we don't have the money to make big bucks) We were talking about his system and that it works, I have no idea what the professionals do, but I'm sure he does.

I already said earlier that my husband said handicapping and betting are different. He's better at handicapping. But if you think holding a record for 7 straight years in one contest isn't good, or isn't special because he isn't betting real money, then so be it. He and I are very proud of that as we should be.

Keep in mind he nor I say he is a professional, I/he, are just sharing his experiences. I have no idea about VWM or Phil, but I do have an idea about my husband. I would say he is a professional handicapper, if there's such a thing, lol, not sure if he would say that, he's a pretty humble guy.

You always say on here people come to you asking questions about online casinos, he's the you on his sites. He even goes a bit further being asked to write articles. He's that good.

Oh. OK.

 

[just play]

Oh. OK.

Oh ok what?

Apparently your word means nothing huh? I figured.

 

[maxd]

Guys, I sense some "drama" about to happen here. Let's not, 'kay?