Rusty
Banned User - repetitive flaming
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2006
- Location
- Manchester UK
Hey Rusty, would you be kind enough to explain "weighting" to me. I am sure it is here somewhere but I know not where to look.
Sure Cynth,
Weighting is a term used that describes artificially altering the probability of the outcome of a random event.
Pretty much every 3 reel slot uses weighting.
For example If you play a 3 Reel slot with a bonus symbol on the 3rd reel you will notice that the bonus symbol lands above and below the payline with much more frequency than on the payline, this is a result of weighting.
So there may be 20 symbols on the virtual reel but these do not all have a 1 in 20 chance of hitting.
It may be that the bonus symbol has a 1 in 200 chance and the Jackpot symbol a 1 in 100 chance for example.
The reason for this is to artificially make it more difficult to hit certain higher paying combinations but overall the return should still be around 95% or whatever.
These games though weighted can still be perfectly fair as long as the weighting remains the same and the player knows the probability of each combination. Of course the flip side is there is plenty of scope to make the game unfair without it being obvious by altering the weighting.
For example making the higher paying symbols and bonus symbol less likely to hit by increasing the weighting.
To make this clear I will give you a very simplistic example;
I have a 3 Reel slot with 3 symbols on each reel. (Cherry,Seven,Bar)
My RNG is giving a number from 1 to 3 for each reel stop position, say the 1=cherry,2=Seven,3=Bar.
This means there 27 total combinations of reel stop positions (3x3x3) In reality there are often Millions.
If I award a prize for 3 of a kind then there will be 3 winning combinations (3 symbols the same) and 24 losing.
1,1,1=3 cherries 2,2,2=3 Sevens 3,3,3=3 Bars.
Now lets say we want this slot to be more interesting so we decide to make each of the 3 symbols award a different prize for 3 of a kind.
We make the cherries pay 1/1 (bet back)
The Sevens pay 10/1 (10Xbet)
The Bars as Jackpot pay (100Xbet)
Now we have a serious problem as our Casino is losing a lot of money because people are winning fortunes on our slot.
In 27 spins, a full cycle of combinations, their expected return is
24X0 (losses) 1X1 ( 3 Cherries) 1X10 (3 Sevens) 1X100 (3 Bars)
So they have bet 27 and the slot has returned 1+10+100=111
That is just over 400% return! Oops we need to weight our slot.
To do this we need to artificially alter the probability of each symbol hitting from the natural 1 in 3 (1 stop position, 3 symbols to each reel) so that the higher paying symbols hit less frequently.
We achieve this by artificially increasing the amount of combinations possible while keeping the slot the same by having our RNG return a number from 1 to 100 instead of 1 to 3 as before, even though there are still the same symbols on the reel.
Now we have 100X100X100=1 Million possible outcomes from the RNG.
OK now to balance our slot.
Let us say each time the RNG returns a number from 1 to 10 inclusive the Bar will hit.
This means the probability of 3 Bars is hitting is now
10/100 X 10/100 X 10/100 (10 numbers which=Bar/ 100 possible numbers)
so we can cancel that down to 1/10 X 1/10 X 1/10= 1/1000 or a probability of 1 in 1000
We will also say each time the RNG returns a number from 11 to 30 inclusive the Seven will hit.
This means the probability of 3 Sevens hitting is now
20/100 X 20/100 X 20/100 (20 numbers which=Seven/ 100 possible numbers)
so we can cancel that down to 1/5 X 1/5 X 1/5= 1/125 or a probability of 1 in 125
Finally We will say each time the RNG returns a number from 31 to 100 inclusive the Cherry will hit.
This means the probability of 3 Cherries hitting is now
70/100 X 70/100 X 70/100 (70 numbers which=Cherry/ 100 possible numbers)
so we can cancel that down to 7/10 X 7/10 X 7/10= 343/1000 or a probability of 1 in 3 (2.91545...)
So now
In 1 Million spins, a full cycle of RNG, their expected return is
477,000X0 (losses) 343,000X1 ( 3 Cherries) 8000X10 (3 Sevens) 10,000X100 (3 Bars)
So they have bet 1 Million and the slot has returned 343,000+80,000+100,000=523,000
That is just over 52% return! Oops we made our slot a little tight.
Not to worry the punters will never know
And this where the story really starts
OK so now you understand One form of weighting but the same results can be achieved using different methods but they all use the same principle.
You can also see why Three Reel slots might use weighting because the programmers/designers were to lazy to incorporate more reel positions even though they do for 5 reel sots which are obviously more work (That makes no sense does it? Tell it to the shills)
Now the Daddy;
We are told that 5 Reel slots do not use weighting, that the amount of symbols and their order remain the same and the probability of outcome for each and any of the combinations are all exactly equal and remain unaltered.
This is possible by using much longer reel strips and incorporating variance (The frequency and size of wins) into the design.
The return of the slot is only alterable through changes in the paytable (awarding more or less for winning combinations) or by a redesign of the virtual reels.
At least that is what I would say if I worked for One of the Software companies.
The big problem for these purveyors of misinformation though is that unlike 3 Reel slots, where we are not privy to how the weighting is applied and so can not calculate how fair the game is, we can find out the Reel layout of 5 Reel slot and because they tout it as unweighted we can check to see if indeed each combination appears to always have an equal probability as every other.
This is where we find many anomalies in the results that show conclusively either the RNG is faulty or the slots use weighting.
Software developers are becoming very aware of this and they are already trying new methods where weighting would be less conspicuous.
Ever wondered why virtual slot reels are getting longer and longer?
The more combinations there are the harder it is to prove the results are anomalous.
New slots can now have Several Hundred Million combinations, try to pick the anomalies out of that.
There is your answer.
Of course it could be argued that although software developers are too lazy to design 3 Reel slots with a relevant virtual reels they just love the extra work of designing 5 Reel slots with Reels that incorporate over 50 symbols.
That would be a very silly argument indeed but then Casinos and software companies have been making them for Years.
Sorry for putting people through such a hideously long post.