Question How relevant is an RTP?

[hoff1985]

Hey guys,

Most times i only play the same slots for maybe 15-30 minutes... Now i'm asking myself: How relevant is the RTP value for me? Would i really have more wins if i stick to the slots with the highest RTP's? I just imagine that the influence of the RTP is very very small when you're just doing 100-500 spins on a slot, it's probably more about the momentum = how good pays the slot right at this moment...

I just ask myself if i really should care that much about an RTP value of a slot?!

What so you guys think?

 

[Seventh777]

In Before Chopley .

To answer the question, they are very important upto a point, but bear this in mind - A low variance slot can behave like a high variance and in most cases vice versa, there are some people that look or swear by certain slots to beat a w/r, this is sheer fallacy, if there were certain slots nigh on guaranteed to beat a w/r, casino`s would go bust plain and simple, if the software decides that today is the day for you - No matter what variance slot you play you will win.

 

[Nifty29]

New CM shorthand = IBC (In Before Chopley)


RTP is really an indication (not a guarantee) of the value for money one can expect.

Looking at it over 500 or even 5000 spins is a waste of time, but if you choose higher RTP games over the long term your returns will be better (except for skiny )

 

[Seventh777]

I will explain in more detail - Recently I received a free £10 NDB from AllJackpots, this had a x60 w/r (£600), after hitting saphs and wilds on BDBA and thinking today could well and truly be my day I started to play TSII for the max bet I could under the T&C`s which was 10% and in this case .90p, I started with £290 and played exactly 600 spins, the other spins were features x4 Valkyrie x2 Loki with additional spins, my overall RTP was 300% from a slot catalogued at around 95%, also, the previous slot I played - BDBA, started with £10 and after 100 spins ended up with £290 an RTP of 2900%.......







Now, are we to assume that I have stumbled across the best ever slots to combat a rather high w/r?, or as stated earlier is this down to it being my day, with the slots being super generous until that time they turn it off?.

Draw your own conclusions .

 

[Seventh777]

New CM shorthand = IBC (In Before Chopley)

Right next to IBN .

 

[nisosbar]

This is where statistical transparency is useful, IMO.

For example, 3Dice will publish a slot's lifetime biggest wins. That is, data has been compiled since the inception of any particular slot, and published on their Zeitgeist page, where you can find all the biggest wins ever on that slot. So rather than a theoretical percentage, you have actual data to look at in terms of, for example, if you look at the high variance slots (such as Moolah), you'll see really big wins like 2000x, 4000x even 12,000x bet size. Meanwhile, the low variance slots are 400x, 600x or a high win of 1100x bet (on Slotronomicon). Thus, Moolah will most of the time seem cold as ice, but there will be that one session where it returns wins of big multipliers. Meanwhile, Slotro will usually give me a bonus round, but many times it amounts to 5x bet, or 10x or 30x. Smaller wins, but more frequent wins.

 

[skiny]

New CM shorthand = IBC (In Before Chopley)


RTP is really an indication (not a guarantee) of the value for money one can expect.

Looking at it over 500 or even 5000 spins is a waste of time, but if you choose higher RTP games over the long term your returns will be better (except for skiny )

The problem is nobody knows what "the long term" is. It's like saying the next watering hole is "over yonder."

If over yonder is a 10 minute walk I'm fine, if it's a 16 hour ride I might want to bring a canteen.

The reality is you'll never know what your RTP will be 20 or 20,000 spins from now regardless of the theoretical RTP.

Theoretically, a higher RTP gives you a better chance of winning. Realistically, you could win or lose no matter where you play or how long you play there. It's all a matter of luck. If you don't believe in it you probably shouldn't be spinning slots. In the end it's the only thing that's going to let you win.

 

[Pocketdiggers77]

, for example, if you look at the high variance slots (such as Moolah), you'll see really big wins like 2000x, 4000x even 12,000x bet size.

Some of those huge wins on Moolah are misleading. I started digging around to try and find out what the person (Seanski , I believe) hit to get those HUGE 6000, 10000, and 12000 times wins and I found a screenshot of his playing one line for .10 hitting the pigs with 2 or 3 wilds that paid $600.00. Add another sun and it would be 12000x or $1200. It is impossible to get those 10000x wins playing 30 lines. Not that it matters to this thread but I was intrigued by the recent influx of humungous wins on Moolah at very even, exact amounts but I was also a little dissappointed b/c I wanted to see a $100,000 hit .

 

[mattsgame]

exact amounts but I was also a little dissappointed b/c I wanted to see a $100,000 hit .

Well you won't see that at 3Dice as the max single win on 1 line on Moolah is $9,000 that is at the default max bet.

Either hitting 5 wilds at $300 x 30 = $9,000 or 1 dragon and 5 suns $12.50 x 30 x 24 = $9,000.

So even if you have requested a higher max bet it would have to be $90 before you got close to $100,000.

As for RTP, I do try and find out the RTP of certain slots, it won't make a huge differenced to me unless its way under 90% odd. Coming from were our land based slots are set well below that 90%+ mark is a god send.

I take more notes and notice of a slots variance/volatility.

 

[Nifty29]

The problem is nobody knows what "the long term" is. It's like saying the next watering hole is "over yonder."

If over yonder is a 10 minute walk I'm fine, if it's a 16 hour ride I might want to bring a canteen.

The reality is you'll never know what your RTP will be 20 or 20,000 spins from now regardless of the theoretical RTP.

Theoretically, a higher RTP gives you a better chance of winning. Realistically, you could win or lose no matter where you play or how long you play there. It's all a matter of luck. If you don't believe in it you probably shouldn't be spinning slots. In the end it's the only thing that's going to let you win.

Choosing higher RTP games gives you a better chance of losing less....its not up for debate it is a fact.

You seem to be pressing on about how many spins etc but it doesn't matter....there is no set amount of spins and you know it. The fact remains that if you have 2 hats, one containing 8 red and 2 blue chips, and the other having 9 red and 1 blue chips, your chances of drawing a red chip are ALWAYS better using the second hat. It's a mathematical fact. We aren't talking about who pays faster or gives better bonuses etc, its just T-RTP.

Casinos KNOW how much money they will make from the TRTP of the game.....for you to say it doesn't mean anything means they're all stupid and you know better than they do, and presumably why the casinos win and the players lose.

Of course luck is a factor, but the longer you play, the less luck influences your overall position because....wait for it.....the TRTP kicks in.

 

[Redbet-Andy]

I take more notes and notice of a slots variance/volatility.

Does anyone publish those?
I know that the games providers have that info (obviously) and circulate it (they provide it to operators) but I've never seen anyone publish it.
I like the idea of knowing the volatility and the % payouts assigned to main game, bonus game, free spins etc.
Is there really a reason to guard this info closely?

Andy

 

[hoff1985]

We'll also what helps me a lot is that on some slots when you check the paytable, they tell you how much you can win with the "picking" or other features (as example). That helps a lot, because some slots only give you x5-10 on bonus features and that is totally ridicoulous even when they retrigger a lot.

To find good slots i always check slotjunkies.net (Thanks Simmo / slotbeaters.com or /thepogg.com/slots-reviews/

I also tend more to pay attention to slot variance than RTP...

 

[KasinoKing]

Does anyone publish those?
I know that the games providers have that info (obviously) and circulate it (they provide it to operators) but I've never seen anyone publish it.
I like the idea of knowing the volatility and the % payouts assigned to main game, bonus game, free spins etc.
Is there really a reason to guard this info closely?

Andy

Well 3Dice and RTG have variance/volatility guides within the casino - but how they determined those is a mystery; as far as I know, they haven't explained that anywhere.

I personally think 3Dice's definitions are way off - if they are supposed to be in comparison to slots on other softwares. (i.e. Maybe comparing within their own slots only, they could be accurate).

To the original question: Basically I agree with everything Nifty said.
i.e. I don't think the RTP is nearly as important as just plain and simple good luck!
With good luck you can win on ANY slot, and with bad luck you can also lose on ANY slot.

KK

 

[skiny]

Choosing higher RTP games gives you a better chance of losing less....its not up for debate it is a fact.

You seem to be pressing on about how many spins etc but it doesn't matter....there is no set amount of spins and you know it. The fact remains that if you have 2 hats, one containing 8 red and 2 blue chips, and the other having 9 red and 1 blue chips, your chances of drawing a red chip are ALWAYS better using the second hat. It's a mathematical fact. We aren't talking about who pays faster or gives better bonuses etc, its just T-RTP.

Casinos KNOW how much money they will make from the TRTP of the game.....for you to say it doesn't mean anything means they're all stupid and you know better than they do, and presumably why the casinos win and the players lose.

Of course luck is a factor, but the longer you play, the less luck influences your overall position because....wait for it.....the TRTP kicks in.

True but we're not talking about a difference between 8:2 and 9:1. It's usually 95:5 or 97:3 so the difference is usually negligable. If there was a 15% difference I would agree 100% but for a 2% difference, 1 lucky spin out of 100 could change that. So I prefer to look for a casino that'll pay me now and not two weeks from now. I prefer to gamble when I'm spinning the slots and not when I'm trying to make a withdrawal. I also prefer some softwares over others because of the games themselves.

Now if you're playing at a casino that pays fast, uses a software you like and still has a higher RTP then you're all set.

 

[Nifty29]

True but we're not talking about a difference between 8:2 and 9:1. It's usually 95:5 or 97:3 so the difference is usually negligable. If there was a 15% difference I would agree 100% but for a 2% difference, 1 lucky spin out of 100 could change that. So I prefer to look for a casino that'll pay me now and not two weeks from now. I prefer to gamble when I'm spinning the slots and not when I'm trying to make a withdrawal. I also prefer some softwares over others because of the games themselves.

Now if you're playing at a casino that pays fast, uses a software you like and still has a higher RTP then you're all set.

Yes, ONE lucky spin out of 100 COULD change that.....but only at THAT moment. The TRTP dictates how "lucky" that lucky hit will be i.e combinations may pay more if hit at a different casino, or be more likely to hit due to adding/removing stops. So, once again the RTRP is involved and DOES make a difference. Whilst we aren't talking about the difference between 8:2 and 9:1, you would still be a fool to choose the first hat.....yeah, you might fare better for a while, but over time you almost certainly will not. It's a fact, Jack.

You can use the hat idea with 100 chips and compare 97 to 95 and it still stands true....your chances of drawing a red chip ARE better with the hat that contains 97 than the one with 95.

Remember, over $100,000 wagered, you can expect to lose $3000 on a 97% slot, and $5000 on a 95% slot. We aren't talking about deposits just wagers, and $100,000 wagered is easier than you think and easily done over and over for a fair chunk of players. I don't know about you, but the likelihood of having $2000 more in my pocket, or at least quite a bit more, is enough to make me choose the 97% slot. The argument about payment is a different kettle of fish....TRTP is not concerned with such things and is not affected by it in any way whatsoever. If 2 casinos pay fast but one is 95% and one is 97%, then only a fool would play at the former.

We've been arguing over mathematics for weeks in regards to TRTP, and I can't think of anything else I can say to convince you and a very few others that these are FACTS not opinions. Statements about what games one likes playing or how long payouts take or how good promotions are fall under the opinions category, and none of them affect TRTP, and until they are seperated in the minds of some, they will never understand TRTP properly.

 

[rockycatt]

i skimmed over this thread ,but one thing i think is missing is that players here are focused on the games R T P
AND not there own return to bankroll = R T B
so if you start with 50$ and work it up to 250$ that is a 400% RTB, so think about exiting there unless and i do believe some peeps play to loose subconsciously.

so before we all start to play a session we should have a exit strategy $$$ ahead

TY VM RC

 

[Osloking]

My lifetime RTP (17months) at 32red is the following :

lifetime RTP 92%
280K$ staked and paid out 258K$
38K$ down
avrage bet 0.75

circa 370000spins

so the 2-4 % RTP count very much in long term as Nifty says...

 

[Nifty29]

i skimmed over this thread ,but one thing i think is missing is that players here are focused on the games R T P
AND not there own return to bankroll = R T B
so if you start with 50$ and work it up to 250$ that is a 400% RTB, so think about exiting there unless and i do believe some peeps play to loose subconsciously.

so before we all start to play a session we should have a exit strategy $$$ ahead

TY VM RC

Knowing when to cash out is, as you say, very important. However, it has no effect on TRTP.

It DOES have an effect on your individual win/loss position.

 

[bpb]

My lifetime RTP (17months) at 32red is the following :

lifetime RTP 92%
280K$ staked and paid out 258K$
38K$ down
avrage bet 0.75

circa 370000spins

so the 2-4 % RTP count very much in long term as Nifty says...

Did you have 38k worth of fun?

 

[hoff1985]

Did you have 38k worth of fun?

That's what i thought... Am i the only middle class guy here???

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Oh the agony to arrive late to a thread about my favourite subject!

Nifty has basically covered all the bases here and I see that skiny is still is doing the mathematical equivalent of trying to read tea leaves.

I will say this about T-RTP in this thread and try to keep it brief, as we basically did this a couple of weeks ago and I ran my mouth off there quite a bit

https://www.casinomeister.com/forum...age-you-ever-had-in-a-10-15-day-period.51540/

T-RTP is the single most important thing to the player. Indeed, in the end, it is literally EVERYTHING, and therefore it is the ONE SINGLE THING that you should pay the most attention to.

(Unless you like to lose more and lose faster, of course, so eccentric millionaires might not have to worry about it too much.)

Over enough time and enough spins, T-RTP will make itself felt and the player's results will gravitate towards it.

If you play lower RTP slots more you will lose more, and you will lose faster, than you will lose playing higher RTP slots.

(Incidentally, losing in the long run is an absolute mathematical certainty.)

Of course variance is a big factor but if we say that BDBA and Munchkins have the same 95% RTP, you will achieve 95% RTP on both slots over enough spins, variance just affects the up and down swings along the way, it does not influence the RTP in any way at all.

Wagering large amounts of cash over tens of thousands of spins isn't that hard, I have personally wagered over £200,000 at Tropica Casino in the last couple of weeks, so as a very simple example:

£200,000 at 95% RTP = £190,000 returned to player

£200,000 at 99% RTP = £198,000 returned to player

Drop down to Jackpot Party levels of RTP (just 92% on the base games):

£200,000 at 92% RTP = £184,000 returned to player

That's a potential £14,000 difference in the return to player, over just a couple of weeks of 'normal pattern' slotting.

Anyone still think RTP doesn't matter that much?.......

I'm quoting myself from the previously linked thread here:

Think of your entire online gambling career as ONE SINGLE EXTENDED SLOTS SESSION, whereby your RTP is the combined RTP of every single spin you've ever played on every single slot - and that is the figure that is your long-term 'real' RTP.

This is why RTP matters, because over enough spins your RTP will always approach the T-RTP of the slots you're playing. Play high RTP slots and over time you'll lose less, play lower RTP slots and you'll lose more, that's all there is to it.

Let's say Casino X pays out at 90% RTP and Casino Y pays out at 95% RTP.

If you only ever played at Casino Y, your RTP over the long term would be 95%. If you only ever played at Casino X, your RTP over the long term would be 90%. (i.e. you would lose more if you only ever played at Casino X).

If you mixed up your play between Casino X and Casino Y (which would be what a normal player would do in real life), your RTP will be a combination of the two. But the simple fact of the matter is that the more you play at Casino X compared to Casino Y, the more you will lose.

The ONLY way this won't be the case is if either or both casinos are not offering fair and entirely random games, so this is where you get into the realms of the theories of MG 'streakiness' and suchlike.

Put it this way, personally speaking I limit my play at Jackpot Party for the simple reason that all their base reel games pay out at 92% (I only play there at all because I really like the WMS slots), at the other end of the scale I can play NetEnt slots at 96-99% or the slots at Pinnacle at 97.5% - so to me it's absolute madness to get too involved at Jackpot Party and voluntarily chuck my money away, because over time that low 92% RTP WILL hurt my bankroll.

This is why I make such a big fuss about RTPs in general, and very much prefer to play at casinos where RTPs are listed on a game-by-game basic, because I know that over time, and enough spins, the T-RTP for any given slot is what my RTP for that slot will approach. 'Bad and good' sessions are erroneous data and should be discarded, the only figure that matters is the T-RTP, because in the end, that's what you'll get - guaranteed.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Hey guys,

Most times i only play the same slots for maybe 15-30 minutes... Now i'm asking myself: How relevant is the RTP value for me? Would i really have more wins if i stick to the slots with the highest RTP's? I just imagine that the influence of the RTP is very very small when you're just doing 100-500 spins on a slot, it's probably more about the momentum = how good pays the slot right at this moment...

I just ask myself if i really should care that much about an RTP value of a slot?!

What so you guys think?

Basically a copy and paste from the other thread but it does very much answer your question hoff.

Think of every spin on every slot at every casino you ever play at as a single extended gambling session, as that's what they effectively are, since they have no influence on each other, they have no 'memory' and they don't 'plan for the future' either.

As such, your RTP over a lifetime of gambling is governed by the T-RTPs of the games you choose to play, you don't particularly have to worry about whether or not you ever achieve the T-RTP on any particular slot, as it's not relevant. What WILL happen is that over time your overall RTP will gravitate towards the T-RTPs of the games you're playing, the more low RTP games you chuck into the mix, the lower your return will be over time and the more you'll lose.

Making a playing choice based on other factors ('they pay me quickly' or 'I like the games') is entirely reasonable and a personal choice. I still play the odd session at Jackpot Party just because I really like the WMS slots, but I do so in the knowledge that the low 92% RTP on the base games is going to hurt my bankroll more over time than playing at Pinnacle, where all the slots are up at 97.5% RTP. That's why I tend to limit myself to small individual deposits at Jackpot Party and don't get involved in long sessions, because the longer I play, the more that 92% RTP will inevitably hurt me.

Playing lower T-RTP games will absolutely and inevitably cost you more in the long run than playing higher T-RTP games. That's not to say that anyone's reasons for choosing lower RTP games are invalid - (as I said, I readily admit to playing lower RTP games at Jackpot Party just because I really like the slots) - but you must understand that the lower the RTP of the slots you choose to play, the more you will lose, and you'll lose faster.

 

[skiny]

This was taken from the Ontario Lottery and Gaming commission's website.

"The theoretical RTP% is calculated from the mathematical design of the game and represents the expected return from a large volume of game play - the game cycle."

Notice they use words like "theoretical" and "expected" and not words like "gauranteed" or "fixed?"

Your ODDS may be better. Your CHANCES may be better but I don't care what anyone says, if ANYTHING is guaranteed it is NOT random.

And YES you will eventually reach the TRTP if you play long enough but you'll also reach 10% under it, 5% under it, 3.5% under it and hopefully 50% over it if you're lucky. I just don't understand this "if you play long enough you'll reach it TRTP." Then what? You sit there? You spin again and now you're at a different RTP and if you're above it or below it is entirely luck.

I never once said your odds were the same if the TRTP is 95% here and 97% there. Of course they're not the same. They're 2% different. The question is - is that 2% enough to get you to decide where you want to play? For me it's not. I could spin where it's 97% for a year and never see 95% or I could spin where it's 95% and be sitting at 130% after the first night. The question for me is "Do I want to play Penguin Power (RTG) or Pengiun Vacation? (Playtech) Once I know which games I feel like playing then I decide where to play based on that casino's reputation for giving (or not giving) people a hassle when they win.

And like I said, if THAT casino happens to have a slightly higher payout percentage then you have an even better chance of winning... not much better but better all the same.

If all you want to do is bog yourself down in the mathematics, be my guest but personally I think that just takes the fun out of it.... And I even enjoy math.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

This was taken from the Ontario Lottery and Gaming commission's website.

"The theoretical RTP% is calculated from the mathematical design of the game and represents the expected return from a large volume of game play - the game cycle."

Notice they use words like "theoretical" and "expected" and not words like "gauranteed" or "fixed?"

This was already covered by Jufo in the other thread, where he said that to 'guarantee' an RTP you do effectively have to go to infinity, but that the Law Of Large Numbers (he even linked the Wiki page for it) demands that any player, playing any game, for a significant length of time, will get closer and closer to the T-RTP.

This is why roulette always makes money for casinos in the long run, and it's also why any casino who bans a player for using a 'system' or being 'too lucky' is managed by idiots - random numbers, as contradictory as it may initially sound, are one thing you can absolutely rely on.

And YES you will eventually reach the TRTP if you play long enough but you'll also reach 10% under it, 5% under it, 3.5% under it and hopefully 50% over it if you're lucky. I just don't understand this "if you play long enough you'll reach it TRTP." Then what? You sit there? You spin again and now you're at a different RTP and if you're above it or below it is entirely luck.

I've said this before skiny but I'll repeat it just in case you're on a 'not paying much attention streak' at the moment - variances above and below RTP are expected, that's what makes any sort of gambling worthwhile, there are wins and there are losses, otherwise no one would ever bother.

However, the CAST IRON CERTAINTY is that eventually, T-RTP will be achieved, whereby the player has lost and the casino has made its profit.

I never once said your odds were the same if the TRTP is 95% here and 97% there. Of course they're not the same. They're 2% different. The question is - is that 2% enough to get you to decide where you want to play? For me it's not. I could spin where it's 97% for a year and never see 95% or I could spin where it's 95% and be sitting at 130% after the first night. The question for me is "Do I want to play Penguin Power (RTG) or Pengiun Vacation? (Playtech) Once I know which games I feel like playing then I decide where to play based on that casino's reputation for giving (or not giving) people a hassle when they win.

Seriously dude, we've covered this before and the facts don't change. You're choosing convenience over payback, by all means play whatever games you wish to, for whatever reasons you want to. You may even decide that every Wednesday you only want to play slots that have the letter 'y' in the title, that's fine and it's your choice.

But choose lower RTP slots over higher RTP slots and over time, you WILL lose more and you WILL lose faster.

 

[Nifty29]

Don't bother any more chops.

Skiny is smart and I always take his views seriously as they often have merit, but like some others around here he will keep saying red is blue regardless of any and all facts and evidence to the contrary.....which is kind of a shame, as I think admitting you're wrong when you're wrong is a character strength and has always given me cause to respect someone who does so even more.

Whilst someone is ignoring facts, its an argument that can never progress. Just let skiny and others lose their extra $,000's and move on, like I am, to other topics where we might learn something.

Skiny....don't take it the wrong way. It's just that I've seen these kinds of discussions get very ugly, and I've found it best to depart and explain why when it is clear there is nowhere else to go but down.

 

[PenDragyn21]

T-RTP is the single most important thing to the player. Indeed, in the end, it is literally EVERYTHING, and therefore it is the ONE SINGLE THING that you should pay the most attention to.

This is an opinion. The player decides what's most important to a player and what they want to pay most attention too. Or else everyone would be playing blackjack or even better full pay deuces wild.

Given most players bankroll sizes and time constraints compared to a casino's, variance is usually what does them in first.

PD

 

[skiny]

You made my point when you said "infinity."

The catch is everyone keeps saying to be guaranteed the TRTP you have to either play for 10 minutes or forever. Saying something is guaranteed if you do it forever is obvious. If I rolled 50 dice at once there's a pretty slim chance they'll all land on the same number but if I did it for an infinite amount of rolls eventually it will. It has to. It might take a billion years or 5 rolls. It's the whole "You're guaranteed to win more often if you play forever" that I find pointless.

We're talking about a 2% CHANCE of winning more. If you play at X casino for a year with a 97% TRTP instead of Y casino for a year with a 95% TRTP it does NOT guarantee that you will end the year with 2% more money. Random just doesn't work like that.

Yes, you have a better chance. A 2% better chance. You have NO guarantee you'll ever win anything no matter where you play.

 

[TheLastCylon]

Does anyone publish those?
I know that the games providers have that info (obviously) and circulate it (they provide it to operators) but I've never seen anyone publish it.
I like the idea of knowing the volatility and the % payouts assigned to main game, bonus game, free spins etc.
Is there really a reason to guard this info closely?

There's only one that I know of: Galewind. They published their variance numbers, along with an extended discussion on the language of gaming data itself in an epic thread: https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/slot-statistics-critiques-requested.49985/.

I don't really see any reason to keep variance data secret. T-RTP data makes tons of sense to keep secret, since it determines how much a casino is earning. So if they have set it low to earn more money, they would want to keep that information from users.

But the variance data would actually be helpful to everyone involved. It lets users know what slots are the type that they enjoy, thus facilitating their ability to pick out and play slots that are most likely to keep them playing; it's a win-win. I suspect that the reason why casinos don't publish their variance data is because, as is evidenced by my linked post, the data is very hard to deliver in a meaningfully understandable way.

As to the question of the OP, there is nothing that can be said that hasn't already been. T-RTP is the most important number to a player. I only play at casinos that post them, and in addition, think that all respectable casinos should have statistical tests of their games done to ensure their accuracy.

 

[PenDragyn21]

As to the question of the OP, there is nothing that can be said that hasn't already been. T-RTP is the most important number to a player. I only play at casinos that post them, and in addition, think that all respectable casinos should have statistical tests of their games done to ensure their accuracy.

Is it fair to just consider T-RTP as existing in a vacuum independent of anything else? If anything T-RTP is a value that gets plugged into any given players utility equation (i.e. what they think is important). If a casino in the rogue pit had posted high RTPs. I think most players (on this forum at least) would stay away no matter how high they were. In that case the most important number is the chances of getting paid.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

This is an opinion. The player decides what's most important to a player and what they want to pay most attention too. Or else everyone would be playing blackjack or even better full pay deuces wild.

Given most players bankroll sizes and time constraints compared to a casino's, variance is usually what does them in first.

PD

Fair comment, I suppose if you like slots play as I do (video pokers and blackjacks are good as an insomnia cure for me but not much else) then you have to accept giving away some RTP in return for playing the kinds of games you like, and that basic principle can hold true in other directions I guess.

It's just the 'flat earth' arguments about RTP that gets my back up, the idea that it 'doesn't really matter' or 'doesn't make much difference'.

But yes PenDragyn, a fair comment there.

 

[Jasminebed]

Well, I think you will find that both Skiny and I are in some agreement that a large difference in RTP makes a serious difference in how our bank rolls fare. Go play pennies at one of the OLG casinos at under 83%, you will see that you sure get a lot more play out of $100 anywhere online most times.

Silc who has been playing RTG a very long time over a large number of spins won her first random recently. It was not all that large relative to betsize, nor all that large in terms of cash to boast her own personal RTP very far I wouldn't think... probably not anywhere near to the 1.5 percent every real series slot spin has contributed to for years.

I do like having T-RTP available to me. But sometimes there is only a small difference between similar slots, less than .1 percent difference. If I enjoy the colours and sounds on the game that pays 97.69 percent more than the one paying 97.72 percent, I won't alter my play based on that.

For an extended period of time, selected new slots were introduced at 100% payback for a period of time at Rideau Carleton slots and trots. I think I only once walked away from any of them a winner, and no big win to bring me back, even for the session.

Lacked luck at 99.6 percent slots on my one trip to AC also.

Incentives like loyalty points, free chips, cashback insurance bonuses, may make the same slots more attractive at one casino over the other.

The only way to have a Guaranteed RTP would be to have slots like a giant box of Nevada Tickets, or Pull-Tabs. And unless you assigned each player their own unique "box", they probably wouldn't achieve an individual RTP unless they ended up buying the entire "box" at some point. Individual players would chase losses, as their odds increased with more losers out of the way, and some would give up and not return. Others would hit the one and only big win and stop. If they understood the system, never to return. If the giant box was even more giant, and across all slots and replenished every time it was completely empty, the Casino would have a guaranteed RTP at the conclusion of every "Box"

 

[Nifty29]

Well, I think you will find that both Skiny and I are in some agreement that a large difference in RTP makes a serious difference in how our bank rolls fare. Go play pennies at one of the OLG casinos at under 83%, you will see that you sure get a lot more play out of $100 anywhere online most times.

Silc who has been playing RTG a very long time over a large number of spins won her first random recently. It was not all that large relative to betsize, nor all that large in terms of cash to boast her own personal RTP very far I wouldn't think... probably not anywhere near to the 1.5 percent every real series slot spin has contributed to for years.

I do like having T-RTP available to me. But sometimes there is only a small difference between similar slots, less than .1 percent difference. If I enjoy the colours and sounds on the game that pays 97.69 percent more than the one paying 97.72 percent, I won't alter my play based on that.

For an extended period of time, selected new slots were introduced at 100% payback for a period of time at Rideau Carleton slots and trots. I think I only once walked away from any of them a winner, and no big win to bring me back, even for the session.

Lacked luck at 99.6 percent slots on my one trip to AC also.

Incentives like loyalty points, free chips, cashback insurance bonuses, may make the same slots more attractive at one casino over the other.

The only way to have a Guaranteed RTP would be to have slots like a giant box of Nevada Tickets, or Pull-Tabs. And unless you assigned each player their own unique "box", they probably wouldn't achieve an individual RTP unless they ended up buying the entire "box" at some point. Individual players would chase losses, as their odds increased with more losers out of the way, and some would give up and not return. Others would hit the one and only big win and stop. If they understood the system, never to return. If the giant box was even more giant, and across all slots and replenished every time it was completely empty, the Casino would have a guaranteed RTP at the conclusion of every "Box"

Yes, I agree, but the discussion is about TRTP.....individual RTP is a different kettle of fish, which is what skiny can't/won't see.

You could go to a casino where every slot is set to 105% ONCE and still lose....two, three, even ten times is possible, but the more you visit, the more your results will gravitate towards the 105%. If you decide to visit the 95% casino instead, or even a 102% casino, your chance of winning is LESS. Now, it might be that the latter casinos are 20 mins away and the 105% one is 6 hours away, so you decide its not convenient or worth it to drive 12 hours and the gas to get a few % extra......which is fine, but it is a personal choice that does not change ANYTHING about TRTP and what it means.

If casino A pays 96% and casino B pays 95%, but casino A pays instantly and has better service and promotions, you might decide that casino A is the better deal. It doesn't change the fact that your chances of winning are better at casino B. The thing is, if you're going to make that choice it is VITAL (if you care about your bankroll) to consider TRTP, as for every $100,000 you wager, you are likely to lose $1000 extra playing at casino A, so you need to decide if the fast payments and promos are worth $1000 to you.

It's not about certainty at any given moment.....you could hit a jackpot on either....its about what happens as you wager more and more which we all do. The casino KNOWS that the longer they operate the closer they come to TRTP, which is why they WANT you to keep playing. Without knowing TRTP, a casino would go broke in a very short time, and the same goes for the player over time.

Ignore TRTP at your own peril.

 

[TheLastCylon]

Is it fair to just consider T-RTP as existing in a vacuum independent of anything else? If anything T-RTP is a value that gets plugged into any given players utility equation (i.e. what they think is important). If a casino in the rogue pit had posted high RTPs. I think most players (on this forum at least) would stay away no matter how high they were. In that case the most important number is the chances of getting paid.

That is true, but I assume when we are talking about casinos that there is a baseline of credibility. If a casino is in the rogue list, then nothing else quantifiable matters.

 

[skiny]

This is the fact. If you play where the TRTP is 2% higher you have a 2% better chance of winning. You have no guarantees you will see any RTP unless you play to infinity.

If you wager 100,000 dollars you have a 2% better chance of winning. It does not mean you WILL or WON'T win any set amount after the 100k is wagered.

There is absolutely no way while playing a random game that you can state how much you will win after any amount of wagers.

I have agreed time and time again that your chances are 2% better but the only way you can state exactly how much you will win after any amount of spins is if the games are not random.

And the word gravitate doesn't really apply to something that's moving all over the place. It will be way over the TRTP and way under it and then way over it and then way under it and everywhere in between if you play long enough. That's hardly a gravitational pull since it's moving in both directions constantly. If gravity worked that way I'd be constantly banging my head on the ceiling.

 

[Nifty29]

This is the fact. If you play where the TRTP is 2% higher you have a 2% better chance of winning. You have no guarantees you will see any RTP unless you play to infinity.

If you wager 100,000 dollars you have a 2% better chance of winning. It does not mean you WILL or WON'T win any set amount after the 100k is wagered.

There is absolutely no way while playing a random game that you can state how much you will win after any amount of wagers.

I have agreed time and time again that your chances are 2% better but the only way you can state exactly how much you will win after any amount of spins is if the games are not random.

And the word gravitate doesn't really apply to something that's moving all over the place. It will be way over the TRTP and way under it and then way over it and then way under it and everywhere in between if you play long enough. That's hardly a gravitational pull since it's moving in both directions constantly. If gravity worked that way I'd be constantly banging my head on the ceiling.

I did say I would bow out, but the post above is proof positive that you simply do not understand the mathematics, even though you state that you enjoy it. Not only do you not understand the TRTP idea, but don't understand the impact it DOES and WILL and HAS on yours and everyone else's gambling.

Below are some very pertinent extracts from an explanation of the Law of Large Numbers (which thus far has more scientific recognition than skinys Law of Meaningless Numbers):

According to the law,the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closeras more trials are performed.

The LLN is important because it"guarantees"stable long-term results for randomevents.Forexample,while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome bythe parameters ofthe game. Itis important to remember that the LLNonly applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observationsare considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will converge to the expected value orthat a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others. See the Gambler's fallacy.

 

[incrediblestuff]

Interesting discussion:
Without butting in, i want to point out Nifty, that i understood your example, but you made a little error:
If casino A pays 96% and casino B pays 95%, but casino A pays instantly and has better service and promotions, you might decide that casino A is the better deal.
Of course it's If casino A pays 95% and B pays 96%
For good measure, and if it's not too late, i'd edit that


Btw, i'm a big believer in the "Law of the large numbers"
If theres any galactic thruth, i'd say it's this one, and Murphy's law completes it.
Think about it...

 

[Nifty29]

Interesting discussion:
Without butting in, i want to point out Nifty, that i understood your example, but you made a little error:
If casino A pays 96% and casino B pays 95%, but casino A pays instantly and has better service and promotions, you might decide that casino A is the better deal.
Of course it's If casino A pays 95% and B pays 96%
For good measure, and if it's not too late, i'd edit that


Btw, i'm a big believer in the "Law of the large numbers"
If theres any galactic thruth, i'd say it's this one, and Murphy's law completes it.
Think about it...

LOL

Thanks for that....yeah reverse the A and B

 

[Tirilej]

I do believe in the Law of Numbers.
But I believe you can only refer to it for the casinos.
For them it's extremly important that they in the long run only will pay out 95% or 97% to players, or they will not do so well.
A certain amount spins from all players together in their specific casino.
So for each casino, but not for the players.

We are still jumping around, different games and different casinos, with different RTP and everything else different.
No casino is the same as any other.

So I still don't agree with you experts

 

[Jasminebed]

I'm not too sure how large large numbers need to be. As I understand it, the higher the variance, the larger the large number needs to be. But few casinos truly inform us about variance.

I know even the smallest of casinos have more players spinning than just me.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I do believe in the Law of Numbers.
But I believe you can only refer to it for the casinos.
For them it's extremly important that they in the long run only will pay out 95% or 97% to players, or they will not do so well.
A certain amount spins from all players together in their specific casino.
So for each casino, but not for the players.

We are still jumping around, different games and different casinos, with different RTP and everything else different.
No casino is the same as any other.

So I still don't agree with you experts

With all due respect Tirilej you can't 'opt out' of the LLU, it's mathematical fact and over time it's a mathematical certainty that it will make its presence felt in your results at online casinos.

You may as well decide you don't agree with the law of gravity. You can do that if you wish of course, but it won't stop things falling to the ground when you drop them

No casino is the same as any other.

The LLU is the same everywhere and it ALWAYS applies, that's the key point.

 

[Tirilej]

With all due respect Tirilej you can't 'opt out' of the LLU, it's mathematical fact and over time it's a mathematical certainty that it will make its presence felt in your results at online casinos.

You may as well decide you don't agree with the law of gravity. You can do that if you wish of course, but it won't stop things falling to the ground when you drop them



The LLU is the same everywhere and it ALWAYS applies, that's the key point.

With all due respect Chopley, you and a few others are talking here as if you are God's.
You can say it's fact, but I have heard others saying that about statistics, mathematics and other things before, that they have been proven wrong on later.
We don't share the same believe in it.
I can agree to a certain point, but then our opinions are split.

I'm not, and others that don't see it like you do stupid, we just don't believe in everything you or your friends say as facts. End of story, at least for me...

 

[LaHutti]

I did not really want to get involved in this, but this post......
It's not like religion, where you can choose to believe in it, or not. Now a virgin giving birth, you can rightfully question, but the law of large numbers IS facts... I don't think anyone is stupid, but ... hello ?
Whether you want to take it into consideration when you gamble, is your choice, but the effect of it CAN not be questioned.
Calling people, who do understand the math names, also won't change the facts.
Chopley's example with the law of gravity, really says it all. You CAN choose not to believe in it, but I wouldn't suggest you jump off a cliff, to prove your point.

With all due respect Chopley, you and a few others are talking here as if you are God's.
You can say it's fact, but I have heard others saying that about statistics, mathematics and other things before, that they have been proven wrong on later.
We don't share the same believe in it.
I can agree to a certain point, but then our opinions are split.

I'm not, and others that don't see it like you do stupid, we just don't believe in everything you or your friends say as facts. End of story, at least for me...

 

[Seventh777]

I did not really want to get involved in this, but this post......
It's not like religion, where you can choose to believe in it, or not. Now a virgin giving birth, you can rightfully question, but the law of large numbers IS facts... I don't think anyone is stupid, but ... hello ?
Whether you want to take it into consideration when you gamble, is your choice, but the effect of it CAN not be questioned.
Calling people, who do understand the math names, also won't change the facts.
Chopley's example with the law of gravity, really says it all. You CAN choose not to believe in it, but I wouldn't suggest you jump off a cliff, to prove your point.

I could open up a huge can of worms here but I won`t, and I agree with whoever stated that thesis regarding gravity, nothing shows people`s reluctance to believe in something that their brains just cannot handle better than the film - Independence Day, the guy who says he was abducted by Aliens - Deemed a fucktard upto and including when he dies, just a film it may be, but, the film`s portrayal of the general consensus is spot on.

The planet is getting attacked by aliens, and yet, he is still scorned, priceless, absolutely priceless .

 

[skiny]

With all due respect Tirilej you can't 'opt out' of the LLU, it's mathematical fact and over time it's a mathematical certainty that it will make its presence felt in your results at online casinos.

You may as well decide you don't agree with the law of gravity. You can do that if you wish of course, but it won't stop things falling to the ground when you drop them

Actually I have a pretty serious problem with Einstein's reasons for gravity but that doesn't mean the math doesn't work.


The LLU is the same everywhere and it ALWAYS applies, that's the key point.

The LLU does apply and I don't recall one time saying that it didn't. I did say that it might take an infinite amount of spins before it does apply in every single possible scenario.

Casinos know that the LLU applies but they have millions of spins to work with. Most players do not spin slots daily. If I played 50 bucks a week I might only get 3, 4 or 500 spins out of it even at minimum bet. Even if I played 200 in a week my game play might amount to less than 1500 spins. It would take one hell of a long time spinning 500 or 1500 spins a week for the law of LARGE numbers to have much effect on my game play.

What you people don't seem to grasp is that unless you're talking about an infinite amount of spins the casino's TRTP or even a specific slot game's TRTP does not guarantee each and every individual player a set win to wager ratio even over an amount as thousand 100 thousand spins. And because you're dealing with random numbers and slots usually designed with medium to high or even very high variance you could sit as low as 70% RTP for a month and then be sitting at 120% one good free spin bonus later, never seeing the TRTP of 97% at any given time in between.

You have thousands of players playing at these casinos. Many of them have been playing for years and have spun their hundred thousandth spin long ago. Do you mean to tell me that they're all sitting at or around 97% at the same time because that's what the TRTP dictates will happen? The range of personal RTP's is all over the map and it always will be because the results are random. The casino's total RTP doesn't fluctuate nearly as much for long periods of time because the games at busy casinos nearly never stop spinning.

 

[Jufo]

My lifetime RTP (17months) at 32red is the following :

lifetime RTP 92%
280K$ staked and paid out 258K$
38K$ down
avrage bet 0.75

circa 370000spins

so the 2-4 % RTP count very much in long term as Nifty says...

I have to say that your results actually look pretty bad. In 370 000 spins the RTP range for 1 standard deviation is around 1% for typical medium-variance Microgaming slots. This means that 95% of time your results should be within 2% of T-RTP after 370,000 spins. Typical Microgaming slots have a T-RTP around 95% - 96.6%, which means that your overall long-time RTP (and 370,000 spins is already long-term) is about 4% lower than T-RTP. This equals a difference in RTPs of 4 standard deviations, which equals about 1 in 30,000 chance so your result seems extremely unlikely. However, this calculation is only a rough estimate about the order of magnitude of your result.

I could look into this closer: Could you specify which slots you played the most and how much did your bet size vary? Have you contacted 32Red about your low RTP and what did they say?

As I have made a simulator for several Microgaming slots, I could run your stats on the simulator to see how extreme your result really is. The simulator plays the slot like the real game so it's results are accurate. So what I would do here is to set the simulator to play 370,000 spins, record the RTP at the end, and repeat this very many times. From these records I will see how many of the 370,000 spin sets ends up with a RTP of 92% of lower.

 

[Nifty29]

With all due respect Chopley, you and a few others are talking here as if you are God's.
You can say it's fact, but I have heard others saying that about statistics, mathematics and other things before, that they have been proven wrong on later.
We don't share the same believe in it.
I can agree to a certain point, but then our opinions are split.

I'm not, and others that don't see it like you do stupid, we just don't believe in everything you or your friends say as facts. End of story, at least for me...

1. Nobody has called anyone stupid.....not even close. You are trying to make this a "smart vs dumb" issue and it is clearly not. If you "feel" stupid, then that's your personal issue entirely which nobody here has contributed to and nobody can assist you with.

2. You're entitled to your opinion like anyone else. You can opine that we don't need oxygen to survive, but I wouldn't go holding your breath to test it. Like LaHutti said.....don't go jumping off any cliffs to support your opinion about TRTP.

3. You could learn a lot from this thread. I know I have, and I'm sure others have as well.

 

[skiny]

Typical Microgaming slots have a T-RTP around 95% - 96.6%, which means that your overall long-time RTP (and 370,000 spins is already long-term) is about 4% lower than T-RTP.

That's supposed to be guaranteed not to happen.

 

[Tirilej]

1. Nobody has called anyone stupid.....not even close. You are trying to make this a "smart vs dumb" issue and it is clearly not. If you "feel" stupid, then that's your personal issue entirely which nobody here has contributed to and nobody can assist you with.

2. You're entitled to your opinion like anyone else. You can opine that we don't need oxygen to survive, but I wouldn't go holding your breath to test it. Like LaHutti said.....don't go jumping off any cliffs to support your opinion about TRTP.

3. You could learn a lot from this thread. I know I have, and I'm sure others have as well.

True about the stupid thing, except that when you take the example as you did in number 2, you try to make me look like it anyway. I don't mind. I didn't expect anything else.

The only thing more I have to say is that it's a theory we are talking about.
You can't prove it!

 

[LaHutti]

No...it's not guaranteed, but it is...as Jufo pointed out.... extremely rare. You can even tell excactly HOW rare, if you have all the data, and provided the data is accurate (Which I suspect is not the case here, to be honest). Let's do the gravity again....it COULD happen, if you do decide to jump off a cliff to prove your point, that a really strong wind will catch you, and put you safely on the ground....I personally still wouldn't try.
I really think you know all of this, and that you keep going, just for the sake of argument.

That's supposed to be guaranteed not to happen.

 

[Osloking]

I have to say that your results actually look pretty bad. In 370 000 spins the RTP range for 1 standard deviation is around 1% for typical medium-variance Microgaming slots. This means that 95% of time your results should be within 2% of T-RTP after 370,000 spins. Typical Microgaming slots have a T-RTP around 95% - 96.6%, which means that your overall long-time RTP (and 370,000 spins is already long-term) is about 4% lower than T-RTP. This equals a difference in RTPs of 4 standard deviations, which equals about 1 in 30,000 chance so your result seems extremely unlikely. However, this calculation is only a rough estimate about the order of magnitude of your result.

I could look into this closer: Could you specify which slots you played the most and how much did your bet size vary? Have you contacted 32Red about your low RTP and what did they say?

As I have made a simulator for several Microgaming slots, I could run your stats on the simulator to see how extreme your result really is. The simulator plays the slot like the real game so it's results are accurate. So what I would do here is to set the simulator to play 370,000 spins, record the RTP at the end, and repeat this very many times. From these records I will see how many of the 370,000 spin sets ends up with a RTP of 92% of lower.

Hey Jufo, thanks for your reply. i contacted them and i have to wait for the reply on mail, once i get the information i will provide you with them