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How is variance created

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by baabaa006, Jul 20, 2009.

    Jul 20, 2009
  1. baabaa006

    baabaa006 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Programmer
    Location:
    Australia
    I noticed the below quote from 'Rusty' in a thread about 'Allstar Slots'

    I used my own personal method to map the reel layouts and became apparent that the reels are changed dynamically.
    For example a bonus symbol may be added or removed for certain periods.
    (Frog on Happily ever after for instance)

    Well this not so different to RTG and Rival but still a bit disappointing that variance and RTP is not left alone during play.


    I used to work with a guy who had previously worked for a land based pokie machine (slot) company. I whinged to him one day about hitting the feature after I had only a few cents left. He informed me that the reels were fixed based on the bet amount. So if I changed my bet it would also effect the reels, therefore I would not have got the feature if I had been betting my previous amount.

    Anyway I was wondering if anybody out there in Casinomeister land, knew how different online casino's generate there variance. Based on Rusty's assessment above it sounds like some software do this dynamically (which doesn't sound good to me), as it means you can be betting with an extremely low likelihood of winning when the dynamic adjustment is for the negative.

    It would be great if any Casinos reps responded to this.
     
  2. Jul 20, 2009
  3. Rusty

    Rusty Banned User - repetitive flaming

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    Manchester UK
    Hi baabaa.
    Since you quoted me I will reply to your question.

    First of all the majority of software operators would contend that the variance and/or return of their slots are altered.
    I obviously believe otherwise and you will find several threads that examine the weight of evidence (pun intended) with arguments from myself and those that are either affiliates or represent the software in some way.

    For example in the RTG threads you will see discussions between Dogboy (representing RTG) and myself but there are similar discussions on Rival and MGS.
    There is some good information in there for slots players.

    So how to answer your question?

    Assuming that a video slot is not weighted and completely fair then variance is basically your bet/return ratio.
    By necessity it is a very exact science in slot design because you need to have a balance between a slot being fun to play (plenty of wins) but still being meaningful (you can win something worthwhile).

    The lowest variance possible would be to get 95% of your bet back every spin (95% return slot)
    The highest possible variance would be to have just One winning combination out of the total combinations possible which would pay 95% of the total wager when it hits. (95% return slot)
    Of course neither of those are viable slot designs so designers look for something in between (the sweet spot that keeps us playing) and add bonus rounds to increase the excitement.

    Of course these bonus rounds need to be incorporated into the overall variance but have their own variance (how often they hit - how many times bet are they likely to pay - how wide is the range) so things can get quite complicated.
    That is where it gets interesting and why bonus rounds are predetermined and yes free spin rounds too though again some still dispute this.
    The logical question is though- why have predetermined bonus rounds and yet have no control over random free spin rounds with large multipliers?
    It is a no brainer.
    Mostly the prize you win is dictated by an algorithm or probability table but basically a range is set according to previous results but it will generally retain a random element. Think of it like rev limiter on a car.

    In the example in which you quote me I give a specific example of dynamic weighting but as far as I know no software supplier as far as I am aware has admitted to adding/removing symbols in real time.
    Only RTG say that they have different versions of the same slot which have slightly different reel layouts that alter the theoretical return.
    From my extensive play I have to say my sincere belief is these changes appear real time.
    I have witnessed the same thing in land based casino slots and as far as I know it is not against UKGC regulations providing the slot retains the stated overall return percentage over a set number of spins.
    I think it is bad practice because even though the slot states 93% you may well be playing it when it is at 65% for example because the slot is designed to take X in before paying Y out or to take x in after paying Y out.
    They are just like sophisticated versions of the old UK AWP slots only they retain a random element.
    The problem is worse in remote casinos because this type of weighting can be so easily manipulated and more volatile.
    That is why I would like to see software designers think outside the box when designing bonus slots and remove any weighting in favour of design that relies solely on mathematics and probability for control and variance. That may need to be a fairly low variance slot but so be it.

    No doubt there will be people who disagree with some of that but I hope that gives you some insight into how variance works and how you can alter variance while retaining the same theoretical return percentage.
     
    4 people like this.
  4. Jul 20, 2009
  5. jelsmith

    jelsmith Zombicidal Maniac PABnononaccred

    Occupation:
    Special Effects Make-up Artist
    Location:
    nashville tn
    Variance...LOL here are some really nice stats of mine from 3dice....what kind of variance is this :eek:


    Game Bets Average Bets Percentage Profit/LossTutankhamon 290 1.45$ 54.45% -192.12$HappyValley 425 1.66$ 72.15% -196.35$Industria 611 1.01$ 85.19% -91.81$MoolahLight 170 1.38$ 43.89% -131.96$SuperSuits 276 1.07$ 78.96% -62.21$FortuneFalls 142 1.50$ 82.65% -36.96$OldGlory-ROR 56 0.50$ 23.42% -21.25$PentaPay-ROR 51 0.75$ 37.91% -23.75$Aztec 35 1.23$ 40.70% -25.5$

    I live on 72% there....I like the games...so I have not closed my account yet. lol
     
  6. Jul 20, 2009
  7. Deeplay

    Deeplay New World Order CAG mm1 webmeister

    Occupation:
    Works For Self
    Location:
    The biG Eu
    Ouch!
     
  8. Jul 20, 2009
  9. chuchu59

    chuchu59 gambling addict CAG PABnonaccred

    Occupation:
    EXECUTIVE
    Location:
    SOMEWHERE IN ASIA
    If I were you, I would go and ask Anna or one of their support staff to top up the difference with ND bonuses so that you can live on say 92%:D
     
  10. Jul 20, 2009
  11. Slotster!

    Slotster! I predict a riot. CAG

    Occupation:
    al Hazard
    Location:
    Location, Location!
    This has been strenuously denied by a number of operators...

    Vinylweatherman drew his own conclusions when he was hitting five rams for fun at Thunderstuck .18p...

    Of course 1000x your wager at 4p is a lot easier for a casino to swallow overall than the same hit at 18... But then are there just more people betting the lower amount therefore, statistically, it will always hit more?

    It's one of those that we'll never know the real answer to I guess.
     
  12. Jul 20, 2009
  13. jelsmith

    jelsmith Zombicidal Maniac PABnononaccred

    Occupation:
    Special Effects Make-up Artist
    Location:
    nashville tn
    Granted they will throw me a free chip now and then.....but not enought to up the difference thats for sure....My stats are almost always that low there...they def are not like that anywhere else.....:confused:
     
  14. Jul 20, 2009
  15. bb28

    bb28 Meister Member

    Occupation:
    Customer Service
    Location:
    US
    Something I've always wondered about concerning variance, especially the high variance slots at Rival, example Scary *itch. Is it just my imagination or does anyone else think that the reels are weighted in such a way that you get bigger wins and more often wins when the bet is low vs higher bets? Rusty I'd appreciate if you'd chime in on this since you have a good understanding of the variance issue. :)
     
  16. Jul 20, 2009
  17. Rusty

    Rusty Banned User - repetitive flaming

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    Manchester UK
    If you flat bet I doubt the level of your wager affects the return or bonus round probability.
    That would be a rigged slot.

    This is my understanding.

    If you wager high say $45.00 a spin and have a poor run then lower your stake to say 9c then it is quite possible the bonus round is more likely trigger and will pay a higher multiple of your bet.

    This does not mean the slot is rigged it is just a side effect of how the bonus round variance is tied to the overall return percentage.

    Do you get a pause on MGS slots when you press spin after changing your bet level?

    Do you have long spells where you never see a bonus symbol and suddenly they start to appear in abundance until the bonus round is triggered?

    Just how contrived and open to manipulation these variance controls are in the various software is open to debate but I have no doubt they exist and are an accepted practice (not by me:mad:) in slot design.
    As always you are at the mercy of the operators and most casinos are not famed for their philanthropic tendencies.
    The trouble with us slot junkies is we have an illogical urge to play slots even though we know we can not win long term. It is a strange masochistic pleasure for most of us.

    That is fortunate for Casinos because when we break it down all we are doing when playing remote casinos is giving a complete stranger our money and saying give me back what you want.
    Unsurprisingly the majority will give you as little back as they think they can get way with.
    So being aware and checking your stats is never a bad thing.;)
     
    4 people like this.
  18. Jul 20, 2009
  19. bb28

    bb28 Meister Member

    Occupation:
    Customer Service
    Location:
    US
    Thanks for the reply Rusty. :thumbsup:

    Rusty said, "The trouble with us slot junkies is we have an illogical urge to play slots even though we know we can not win long term. It is a strange masochistic pleasure for most of us."

    Love that line..........and that is so true!:notworthy
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Jul 20, 2009
  21. silcnlayc

    silcnlayc Just one more spin pleez! CAG MM PABnonaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    IT Director of Operations
    Location:
    Left Hungary
    Try it in fun mode and it will convince you to continue in fun mode or delete the darn thing...

    I have been testing a lot of the games in fun mode and tossing a few coins in them and it is helping me weed out the money suckers and put them in closed mode or permenant fun mode. The others stay in real money mode that have given fair play both ways.

    I actually am down to around 7-8 casinos that I have withdrew from this last month at least once from each ...up to around 4-5 on a few. It has become fun again and I am cleaing up the garbage casinos as I speak. Let 2 more go last night (closed permenantly).

    It has been a breath of fresh air to release those that weren't paying (burdensom) and moving on and beyond them without looking back. Not that anyone cares but it has bought some peace and fun back to my gaming finally! Hope others find their niche in playing soon too!

    .
     

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