Horse Racing & Tips Thread

[colinsunderland]

4.05A not sure what to do here. Kauto Riko originally had Brian Hughes booked to ride and I thought he was massively overpriced at 33/1, as I thought he should be about 10's, but he's not riding it now and is at Sedgefield (where he might win a few races) and Sean is now onboard. As much as I like Sean as a jockey, there are some tracks where I don't think he does well, and this is one of them. So in two minds what to do here, as it was my initial selection for the race. The other one I liked at big odds is Robin Des Foret so will probably go with that one at 28/1 and watch Sean's romp in

1.45A Kateson, Tom Scudamore's only ride of the day. Ran well and won here beating On The Blind Side but has had two poor runs since. Only 4 pound higher than his last win at Aintree. Not a 40/1 shot for me.

5.15A Dear Sire I honestly thought this would be in the top 3 of the betting, so being 25's+ is concerning, however Derek O'Connor's booking suggests McCain is serious about this one. Top rateed on RPR's too.

tldr: EW Lucky 15 on

4.05A Robin Des Foret 28/1 7 places (Hills)
1.45A Kateson 40/1 5 places (Hills)
5.15A Dear Sire 25/1 5 places (Hills)
4.40A Streets Of Doyen 17/2 4 places (Hills)

Good luck today all

 

[geordiecolin]

I toyed with taking tiquer in the 405 but its odds put me off for to stick in my lucky 15 so I've taken it on it's own ew. Solwara one in the first. I'll post my full bets once I get home. Gl all

 

[Slottery]

Did i hear right from comments that Tronador who won by many lengthts was only Irish trained horse in this race with BSP 31.3?

 

[geordiecolin]

Meh. I've been nobbled by non runners so I have stuck a second bet on

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

6. Dusart
5/2
9th Apr AINTREE 14:20 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 0f 103y - Each Way
Starting Soon
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
1. Dashel Drasher
13/2
9th Apr AINTREE 15:25 EVENT 2m 3f 200y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
5. Modus
11/1
9th Apr AINTREE 16:05 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y - Each Wa
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places
15. Topofthecotswolds
28/1
9th Apr AINTREE 16:40 NOVICES' HURDLE 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
17. Copperless
9/2
9th Apr AINTREE 17:15 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 0f 103y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
Best odds

Plus this

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way
L
14. Solwara One
10/1
9th Apr AINTREE 13:45 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f 0y - Each Way
13:45 09 April 2021
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
1. Dashel Drasher
13/2
9th Apr AINTREE 15:25 EVENT 2m 3f 200y - Each Way
15:25 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
8. Livelovelaugh
7/1
9th Apr AINTREE 16:05 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 19y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places
V
5. Cape Gentleman
4/1
9th Apr AINTREE 16:40 NOVICES' HURDLE 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
16:40 09 April 2021
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
17. Copperless
9/2
9th Apr AINTREE 17:15 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 0f 103y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
Best odds

 

[geordiecolin]

4.05A not sure what to do here. Kauto Riko originally had Brian Hughes booked to ride and I thought he was massively overpriced at 33/1, as I thought he should be about 10's, but he's not riding it now and is at Sedgefield (where he might win a few races) and Sean is now onboard. As much as I like Sean as a jockey, there are some tracks where I don't think he does well, and this is one of them. So in two minds what to do here, as it was my initial selection for the race. The other one I liked at big odds is Robin Des Foret so will probably go with that one at 28/1 and watch Sean's romp in

1.45A Kateson, Tom Scudamore's only ride of the day. Ran well and won here beating On The Blind Side but has had two poor runs since. Only 4 pound higher than his last win at Aintree. Not a 40/1 shot for me.

5.15A Dear Sire I honestly thought this would be in the top 3 of the betting, so being 25's+ is concerning, however Derek O'Connor's booking suggests McCain is serious about this one. Top rateed on RPR's too.

tldr: EW Lucky 15 on

4.05A Robin Des Foret 28/1 7 places (Hills)
1.45A Kateson 40/1 5 places (Hills)
5.15A Dear Sire 25/1 5 places (Hills)
4.40A Streets Of Doyen 17/2 4 places (Hills)

Good luck today all

Lovely start Col. Good luck with the rest. I keep getting nobbled by last minute non runners!

 

[geordiecolin]

Did i hear right from comments that Tronador who won by many lengthts was only Irish trained horse in this race with BSP 31.3?

I didnt see the first race but yes it was the only Irish trained horse in the race

 

[Kenji85]

Have a small double on chantry house and fakir doudairies at 9/1.

Also one against the field in the 4.05.
Kauto Riko at 25/1 each way at PP 6 places.
Back him at same price on Skybet or will hills if you can as they pay 7 places. Unfortunately I cant use Will Hill and and I closed my Skybet account before so PP it is for me one place less paid. Wont matter if he wins lol.




4th on his only run this season in the PaddyPower Gold Cup. I'm not sure he'll get much bigger in price but I think at 25s he will likely give a very good run for money.



EDIT to say I notice Colinsunderland tipped the same one. We know how this ends

 

[geordiecolin]

Have a small double on chantry house and fakir doudairies at 9/1.

Also one against the field in the 4.05.
Kauto Riko at 25/1 each way at PP 6 places.
Back him at same price on Skybet or will hills if you can as they pay 7 places. Unfortunately I cant use Will Hill and and I closed my Skybet account before so PP it is for me one place less paid. Wont matter if he wins lol.




4th on his only run this season in the PaddyPower Gold Cup. I'm not sure he'll get much bigger in price but I think at 25s he will likely give a very good run for money.



EDIT to say I notice Colinsunderland tipped the same one. We know how this ends

Good luck with those. I've just been listening to Nico De Boinville being interviewed. He always sounds like he really knows his onions

 

[geordiecolin]

Nice one Ken. It won easily

 

[geordiecolin]

Feck I think I just spotted a rider get kicked full in the face?

 

[ESCJAMIE]

Anyone seen any offers for Grand National.

William hill has Bet £10 get £5 free bet

 

[Kenji85]

Bet365 @ESCJAMIE

Back a horse each way in the Grand National get half your stake back.(effectively you get the win part of your bet for free)

 

[colinsunderland]

Bet365 @ESCJAMIE

Back a horse each way in the Grand National get half your stake back.(effectively you get the win part of your bet for free)

yep thats the best offer anywhere. Up to £125 too.
Historically it's not often they give welcome offers or free bets on National day, simply because it's the one event of the year you get punters who will only bet once a year. FWIW they don't pay CPA for affiliates either.

 

[ESCJAMIE]

Gone with

Mister Malarky 20/1
Any Second now 10/1

Either wins I be a £100

 

[colinsunderland]

Gone with

Mister Malarky 20/1
Any Second now 10/1

Either wins I be a £100

did you use the 365 offer?

 

[ESCJAMIE]

did you use the 365 offer?

Nah William hill bet 10 get 5

My bet365 is closed due to need docs, so I cba with that just for that offer.

Are you going to use that offer?

 

[geordiecolin]

I've completed all of my main bets across the cards for tomorrow which is unusual for me but the other cards are not great so I've not done that much. I will stick another one on before the off tomorrow based on my second likes and/or market moves at Aintree.

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

17. Hometown Boy
17/2
10th Apr AINTREE 13:45 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
4. Dreal Deal
11/2
10th Apr AINTREE 14:25 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 4f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
6. Lisnagar Oscar
9/1
10th Apr AINTREE 15:35 EVENT 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Place
2. Sam Brown
15/2
10th Apr AINTREE 16:15 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 0f 210y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
35. Minella Times
8/1
10th Apr AINTREE 17:15 HANDICAP CHASE 4m 2f 74y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places

 

[colinsunderland]

ok, so mine so far, but will be narrowing these down to 4 for my usual rfc's and tricasts
They are expecting the going to be closer to soft than good, so something to bear in mind.

Discorama 16/1
Talkischeap 50/1 (would prefer it to be good rather than soft)
Lake View Lad (went well for a lot of the race last year, hampered, and trainer said he would have prefered softer ground)
Give Me A Copper 40/1
Potters Corner 22/1
Yala Enki 50/1 If the ground is soft I'll back this EW, but I'll wait to see what teh going is like first closer to the off.
Hogan's Height 100/1
Magic Of Light 18/1 2nd 2 years ago, and would possibly have beaten Tiger Roll if it wasn't for a mistake at the last.

Other races

4.15 Hold The Note 11/1
3.35 Diol Ker 11/1 and also big outsider William Henry 50/1

 

[colinsunderland]

Nah William hill bet 10 get 5

My bet365 is closed due to need docs, so I cba with that just for that offer.

Are you going to use that offer?

I can't deposit there unfortunately

 

[Kenji85]

I cant do the Billy Hills offer so I'm all in on the bet365 one.
I have a team of 5 for the national. I wonder will I even get one placed

Burrows Saint is 10/1. My biggest stake is here. Just a rock solid chance with a clear round.

Both Anibale Fly and Bristol de Mai are 28/1 so I've a bit on them also due to previously catching my eye as likely types for this race


Now two long shots who I think can outrun massive odds
Blaklion at 66/1 bits and pieces more so than solid but if it fell his way he'll jump for fun.
The Long Mile 80/1 being aimed at this for a while and jumps sound and stays. What more can you ask for in an 80/1 shot.

In the second race I like Ballyadam at 3/1. The fav is doing nothing wrong and progressing nicely. But the Kelso win last time doesn't convince me about the jumping in faster pace races. Couple that with the fact Ballyadam is not running into Appreciate it today is a massive plus. Rachael Blackmore rides so no complaints there either.


Other than that I have a few golf bets and football ones.



Gl all.

 

[colinsunderland]

So I'm really struggling to get this down to four horses so am doing 2 sets of 4 as fcs and tricasts (well will be doing them on the tote in the hope the returns are better). I think this is one of the hardest nationals I've looked at in years.

Bristol De Mai 28/1
Talkischeap 40/1
Takingrisks 16/1
Discorama 16/1

Potters Corner 22/1
Yala Enki 50/1 - still unsure about the ground, but be amazed if this doesn't complete, which is a massive plus in itself.
Hogan's Height 100/1
Magic Of Light 14/1

Just also want to mention Any Second Now. This has been it's aim for a while now, but one of my critera for picking my 4 is that they are all double figure odds, and he is 9/1. If he had been 10's+ I would have included him in the 4 I've gone for.

Obviously Cloth Cap has a decent chance, but in the past 20 years there has only been 3 horses won at single figure odds, and only 4 favourites. That stat alone is enough to put me off, but apart from Tiger Roll in 2019, you have to go back to 1919 to find the last time a horse won at 4/1 or less, which suggests there is absolutely no value in backing it at all.

Minella Times is another. Like the horse, but think this will be above Rachael's ability. She's clearly a decent rider, however, she does have a tendancy to fall off hourses a litle easy (in my view) and doesn't seem to do as well over long distances. I think this will be too far for her, and in a fast run 4 mile race, with a wall of horses in front of her at some of the biggest fences in races, I just think she won't complete the race.

 

[Slottery]

Balko Des Flos @101.0
Minella Times @11.0
Talkischeap @41.0
Sub Lieutenant @51.0
Bristol De Mai @29.0

Pure random selections, if any of these gets even near, i can write case afterwards Best of luck for all, loads to bet this weekend in different sports.

Just also want to mention Any Second Now. This has been it's aim for a while now, but one of my critera for picking my 4 is that they are all double figure odds, and he is 9/1. If he had been 10's+ I would have included him in the 4 I've gone for.

Change odds from fractional to decimal and you just get double figure

 

[geordiecolin]

This is my second bet at Aintree. Good luck to everyone having a punt

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

5. JAi Froid
9/1
10th Apr AINTREE 13:45 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
9. Minella Drama
8/1
10th Apr AINTREE 14:25 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 4f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
3. Diol Ker
10/1
10th Apr AINTREE 15:35 EVENT 3m 0f 149y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
5. Definitly Red
33/1
10th Apr AINTREE 17:15 HANDICAP CHASE 4m 2f 74y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places
Best odds

 

[tumble]

I always put sentimental bets on in the national and it rarely goes my way but it's all good fun as long as they come home safe.

I've EW bets on

Bristol De Mai
Lakeview Lad
Definitely Red
Blaklion

GL all

 

[Kenji85]

She is some woman for one woman!