Ebolaman's clarification on "Random"

[Igor82]

Which is about a snippet of an email from some unknown developer working for a company we don't know who are providing software for casinos we don't know. there is no information at all except the heresay of a couple of people. nothing in your link is able to be validated yet you are taking it to be gospel.

*jotted down notes to notepad from an alleged phone-call*

which included:

1. software developer spilling the beans for no apparent reason as denial was still a very viable option based on the article
2. owner re-affirmation of the developer bean-spill, via phone, who then tried to send a different set of data (why not lead with that?)

I'm really pro truth, but there is too little to go on here to have any value.

 

[MiltonW]

Which is about a snippet of an email from some unknown developer working for a company we don't know who are providing software for casinos we don't know. there is no information at all except the heresay of a couple of people. nothing in your link is able to be validated yet you are taking it to be gospel.

Well, Bryan seems to believe it: https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/crooks-in-the-online-casino-industry.60549/

 

[Igor82]

Well, Bryan seems to believe it: https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/crooks-in-the-online-casino-industry.60549/

That's hardly a supportive thread of anything - it's just querying to find out more toward WHO did that, rather than blast the industry as a whole.

In fact, if you notice, most people are treating the article subject as provider performance that is out of the norm.

What are you trying to state? That it is possible to design a cheating table games software - if so, i don't think anyone will disagree - it is possible.

Or are you stating that industry as a whole is corrupt and software even by largest providers is designed to be non random?

 

[ChillBill]

I really wish people would actually do some research and learn a little bit about probability, slot design, variance and RTP before making outlandish statements.

In part I agree.

(I contacted iTech Labs in Melbourne a while back because I had a couple questions I couldn't find answers to. Spoke to a tech who filled in a few blanks for me).

There seems to a common thought that an RNG is and RNG, which isn't true.

Online casinos do not use a True-RNG, they all use a Quasi-RNG (big difference). Further more, an RNG must be matched to the specific game it's indended for. And before that game is released, both the RNG and the game should be audited and certified.

As players, we hope the casino software (all games and all RNG's) have been tested by an authorised probability testing lab.
That is, Each game has had both its RNG and actual game tested, audited and certified.

The "software" first determines whether or not the spin will be a "win" or a "loss" based on the programmed payout percentage

Either this post is a red-herring (err troll) or Ebolaman is merely pointing out, game outcomes are a result of both the RNG and the game's casino software. If it's the later, it could have been written a lot better.

 

[MiltonW]

That's hardly a supportive thread of anything - it's just querying to find out more toward WHO did that, rather than blast the industry as a whole.

They treat Eliot with respect, not your: *jotted down notes to notepad from an alleged phone-call*

What are you trying to state?

I am stating that the whole industry is corrupt, yes.

 

[Ebolaman]

Are you being serious here? Not only do we have theoretical proof of house edge at casinos, the very fact that they are very successful profitable businesses is pretty good practical proof also.

I am sorry, I did not phrase that well.

 

[Ebolaman]

That's my point

Dice simulation

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2 sided dice, with sides 1 and 2.

99 dices

99 throws


You can keep running that simulation over and over again, and see that for individual dices the 99 throw average is usually somewhere in the 1.3-1.7 range, but the combined average for all dices stays in 1.49-1.51 range. The more the throws, the closer to the expected average things tend to go. Casinos don't need any cheating or predetermined results based on how much money their slots have paid recently, house edge, and possibly limiting the fluctuations in case their cash pool is smaller than other casinos by setting the maximum bet sizes lower than software default settings, or settings monthly or weekly maximum withdrawal limits to limit the "damage" a lucky high roller or couple can do in short period, is enough.

"usually somewhere" - that does not sound like a fact that I would want to risk millions of dollars on the line for, if I were a casino. I would need more than that.

 

[Igor82]

I am stating that the whole industry is corrupt, yes.

I see, thanks. I tend to think of myself as a pretty nice guy actually.

good day to you sir

 

[KasinoKing]

Jeeeze! I've only just spotted this thread at bed-time; started this-morning and already over 108 posts

I haven't read any replies yet, but the first post is pretty ridiculous - I guess a load of other people have already corrected the OP.
SOME slots work like he said (especially off-line ones), but very few online.

Anyway, I'm off to bed - will have to save this thread for my coffee break (or 3) tomorrow!

KK

 

[Ebolaman]

Ok, let me throw something with real substance in here.

We will start with the Microgaming title " Cops and Robbers"
i always start with 10c bets. You need 3 money bags to activate the bonus board game. On the board game, a virtual dice roll is given. You "robber" moves the indicated number of steps. Another roll is given for the "cop" to move. If the "cop" lands on your square, you lose and bonus is over. Understood so far? Good.
Now, playing at Casino A, after arriving at the bonus for the second time (the first bonus arrival , I quit by collecting the first win that I got , declining to roll again- that is important-you have to collect the first win you get. Don't roll again (this is in order for the following events to happen and "show" that something isn't quite right). Once you arrive at the bonus and the cop lands on your square without you having a chance to roll again, THE NEXT 2 TIMES that you arrive at the bonus game, will be loses where the cop catches you immediately. 100% of the time. No matter which online casino that you are playing at. Always!! Now I know that I have a hard time being clear so I will state this in point form. (Remember- you can only test this by never having played Cops and Robbers at this particular casino before.
Casino A - Arrive at bonus 3rd time (first 2 I "collect wins" right away). Cop catches me after first spin . Next 2 times that I arrive at bonus screen, cop catches me right away !!
Casino B - Arrive at bonus 1st time. Cop catches me after first spin. Next 2 times that I arrive at bonus screen, cop catches me right away!!
Casino C- Arrive at bonus 3rd time. Outcome same as Casino A
Casino D- Arrive at bonus 2nd time (first 1 I collect win right away). Cop catches me after first spin. Next 2 times......etc etc etc ad nauseum

Final statement on Cops and Robbers : There are ALWAYS 3 losses in a row very close to the beginning of you ever playing the game. Once you lose the first time by being caught right away, YOU WILL ALWAYS LOSE THE NEXT 2 TIMES BY BEING CAUGHT RIGHT AWAY This is a fact !. So instead of saying that I am wearing a shiny hat, explain this please and try logic for a change instead of blanket name calling. I have seen this play out at 20 different Casinos. Same outcome. That is NOT coincidence.

This is not the only Microgaming title to have a pattern to it. Hopefully I was clear enough for at least one of these examples. And I do concede that my mind rambles when trying to convey my thoughts and I apologize.

 

[Ebolaman]

In part I agree.

(I contacted iTech Labs in Melbourne a while back because I had a couple questions I couldn't find answers to. Spoke to a tech who filled in a few blanks for me).

There seems to a common thought that an RNG is and RNG, which isn't true.

Online casinos do not use a True-RNG, they all use a Quasi-RNG (big difference). Further more, an RNG must be matched to the specific game it's indended for. And before that game is released, both the RNG and the game should be audited and certified.

As players, we hope the casino software (all games and all RNG's) have been tested by an authorised probability testing lab.
That is, Each game has had both its RNG and actual game tested, audited and certified.



Either this post is a red-herring (err troll) or Ebolaman is merely pointing out, game outcomes are a result of both the RNG and the game's casino software. If it's the later, it could have been written a lot better.

Agreed, I could have written it much better.

 

[Nifty29]

We will start with the Microgaming title " Cops and Robbers"
i always start with 10c bets. You need 3 money bags to activate the bonus board game. On the board game, a virtual dice roll is given. You "robber" moves the indicated number of steps. Another roll is given for the "cop" to move. If the "cop" lands on your square, you lose and bonus is over. Understood so far? Good.
Now, playing at Casino A, after arriving at the bonus for the second time (the first bonus arrival , I quit by collecting the first win that I got , declining to roll again- that is important-you have to collect the first win you get. Don't roll again (this is in order for the following events to happen and "show" that something isn't quite right). Once you arrive at the bonus and the cop lands on your square without you having a chance to roll again, THE NEXT 2 TIMES that you arrive at the bonus game, will be loses where the cop catches you immediately. 100% of the time. No matter which online casino that you are playing at. Always!! Now I know that I have a hard time being clear so I will state this in point form. (Remember- you can only test this by never having played Cops and Robbers at this particular casino before.
Casino A - Arrive at bonus 3rd time (first 2 I "collect wins" right away). Cop catches me after first spin . Next 2 times that I arrive at bonus screen, cop catches me right away !!
Casino B - Arrive at bonus 1st time. Cop catches me after first spin. Next 2 times that I arrive at bonus screen, cop catches me right away!!
Casino C- Arrive at bonus 3rd time. Outcome same as Casino A
Casino D- Arrive at bonus 2nd time (first 1 I collect win right away). Cop catches me after first spin. Next 2 times......etc etc etc ad nauseum

Final statement on Cops and Robbers : There are ALWAYS 3 losses in a row very close to the beginning of you ever playing the game. Once you lose the first time by being caught right away, YOU WILL ALWAYS LOSE THE NEXT 2 TIMES BY BEING CAUGHT RIGHT AWAY This is a fact !. So instead of saying that I am wearing a shiny hat, explain this please and try logic for a change instead of blanket name calling. I have seen this play out at 20 different Casinos. Same outcome. That is NOT coincidence.

This is not the only Microgaming title to have a pattern to it. Hopefully I was clear enough for at least one of these examples. And I do concede that my mind rambles when trying to convey my thoughts and I apologize.

These particular games are AWPs......and they are NOT random, but compensated.

If you're basing your entire randomness theory on AWPs, then you're way off, as they are completely different.

 

[quber]

Cops and Robbers is an AWP game and doesn't behave as a normal slot, these are more like the pub Fruitys you get in the UK.

they were all taken down a few weeks ago for some reason

EDIT: Nifty beat me to it

 

[Igor82]

We will start with the Microgaming title " Cops and Robbers"
i always start with 10c bets. You need 3 money bags to activate the bonus board game. On the board game, a virtual dice roll is given. You "robber" moves the indicated number of steps. Another roll is given for the "cop" to move. If the "cop" lands on your square, you lose and bonus is over. Understood so far? Good.
Now, playing at Casino A, after arriving at the bonus for the second time (the first bonus arrival , I quit by collecting the first win that I got , declining to roll again- that is important-you have to collect the first win you get. Don't roll again (this is in order for the following events to happen and "show" that something isn't quite right). Once you arrive at the bonus and the cop lands on your square without you having a chance to roll again, THE NEXT 2 TIMES that you arrive at the bonus game, will be loses where the cop catches you immediately. 100% of the time. No matter which online casino that you are playing at. Always!! Now I know that I have a hard time being clear so I will state this in point form. (Remember- you can only test this by never having played Cops and Robbers at this particular casino before.
Casino A - Arrive at bonus 3rd time (first 2 I "collect wins" right away). Cop catches me after first spin . Next 2 times that I arrive at bonus screen, cop catches me right away !!
Casino B - Arrive at bonus 1st time. Cop catches me after first spin. Next 2 times that I arrive at bonus screen, cop catches me right away!!
Casino C- Arrive at bonus 3rd time. Outcome same as Casino A
Casino D- Arrive at bonus 2nd time (first 1 I collect win right away). Cop catches me after first spin. Next 2 times......etc etc etc ad nauseum

Final statement on Cops and Robbers : There are ALWAYS 3 losses in a row very close to the beginning of you ever playing the game. Once you lose the first time by being caught right away, YOU WILL ALWAYS LOSE THE NEXT 2 TIMES BY BEING CAUGHT RIGHT AWAY This is a fact !. So instead of saying that I am wearing a shiny hat, explain this please and try logic for a change instead of blanket name calling. I have seen this play out at 20 different Casinos. Same outcome. That is NOT coincidence.

This is not the only Microgaming title to have a pattern to it. Hopefully I was clear enough for at least one of these examples. And I do concede that my mind rambles when trying to convey my thoughts and I apologize.

can you go back to the casinos and open TS2, IR, Playboay, TDKR, or any other achievement game and let me know if the paytable is the same across the casinos?

as in, if you have 2 symbols gold on one game, will the same 2 symbols be gold on every other casino?

 

[Nifty29]

I tell you what, this Milton (the very same from that 70's cartoon??) is the most inept mathematician I've ever seen....that's if HE even is one.

I've seen it all before. As soon as an actual expert weighs in with real stats and maths and coding stuff, the OP, who claims to be an expert on such things, refuses to engage in any kind of technical discussion. In this case, we got "you can't wow me blah blah". The fact that he can't even provide one technical argument tells me that his qualifications are all in his head, or perhaps are the result of diazepam abuse.

Either way, this guy is off his rocker.

 

[Tirilej]

Interesting thread this.

I can see that a few probably are confused since there is one OP, Ebolaman, who have found out that AWP's are compensated.
Most people knew that already but this guy forgot to do a background check.

The other person is Milton, who says the industry are corrupt, based on an article written a few years ago by Eliot Jacobson.
Interesting that Eliot didn't think the whole industry was corrupt.

 

[The Dude]

Admin Note: be cool

Just a friendly reminder to be nice to one another. Thanks!

 

[catapultaudio]

The fact that he can't even provide one technical argument tells me that his qualifications are all in his head, or perhaps are the result of diazepam abuse.
Either way, this guy is off his rocker.

Ah nifty you do make me laugh, took me a while to understand your angle on things but I'm truly confident that if I had been here as long as you have I would have reached or surpassed your level of cynicism and lack of respect for the kind of BS posted here on such a regular basis.

As others have said, the article by Elliot never claimed for a moment that all online casinos are rigged, it was talking about a specific game on a specific software platform and for anybody to take that as evidence that the entire industry is corrupt despite the same man stating quite clearly in the same article that he had worked with and tested a broad range of games and software platforms that were found to be completely fair, that person isn't just off their rocker, there just plain stupid or more likely, trolling.

And look how many of us have fallen for it, 13+ pages in under 24 hours.... !! Dear oh dear!!

 

[Tirilej]

And look how many of us have fallen for it, 13+ pages in under 24 hours.... !! Dear oh dear!!

So true, but since that guy wasn't the op I really hope that the real one comes back to see that he had missed the fact that it was AWP's that he had discovered wasn't random...
To hijack his thread was wrong by Milton, but maybe we helped him to do it...

 

[catapultaudio]

We will start with the Microgaming title " Cops and Robbers"

why would you spend all that time explaining your 'example' on a game that not one of us are possibly able to test the theory you have described out on ? not to mention the fact its not a true random slot anyway,seriously just... yawn

 

[The Dude]

Well, Bryan seems to believe it: https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/crooks-in-the-online-casino-industry.60549/

I believe what Elliott said is true. But this is a software company that has a very small reach. It's none of the ones listed here.

...I am stating that the whole industry is corrupt, yes.

<yawn> And the whole music industry is corrupt, so is the film industry, pharma, car dealerships, dog food makers, and any industry that deals with money and people. And don't get me started with the government.

Give it a break newbie. You aren't privy to the machinations of the online casino industry...yet. Only experience and a good insight on how businesses work in this environment will give you a true picture. Hang out here a bit longer and you'll begin to understand.

 

[Ebolaman]

I like eggs, just not on my face.

These particular games are AWPs......and they are NOT random, but compensated.

If you're basing your entire randomness theory on AWPs, then you're way off, as they are completely different.

Well, I have to admit that this is a perfect example of somebody speaking without being sufficiently informed. (That would be me). I was not aware that AWP's were exempt from this standard. I just wasted a lot of people's time and I apologize. I did learn a valuable lesson if that's any comfort. My "theory" (which should not have been stated as fact) was not just based on this one game but I should have taken the time to gather and present a more cohesive argument to present my "theory" with.
I am humbled and embarassed.
Let me part this thread with a respectful question to guide me.
I can gather video eveidence to strongly show the following:
Land based Casinos: on standard slot machines with progressives, the first 2 lowest amount progressives can be predicted within a few spins (10 or less). ie Watch others play and notice when the first progressive pays out, it will continue to pay out the next time that it reaches very close to that amount. This I know for sure and am banned from my city's casino for being able to do this ( yes we only have 1 casino in my city lol). So, is this news or already known?
Online casinos: Increasing bets via coin implement. I only play at 1c and then increase my bets via the amount of coins per line. I don't increase by going from 1c coins to 2c to 5c etc so I have no info on that type of betting. But with the way I play, I can show that the spin you get wagering, say, 3 coins per line is not the same spin that you would get wagering any other number of coins per line. Your result is dependent on how many coins per line that you choose. Is this news or is it already known. Would showing this be a waste of time? ( This is for standard slots by the way, not AWP's (shame on me) ) Any input would be greatly appreciated.
My final study, if I do one at all, will be posted on you tube.

 

[Ebolaman]

Well, I have to admit that this is a perfect example of somebody speaking without being sufficiently informed. (That would be me). I was not aware that AWP's were exempt from this standard. I just wasted a lot of people's time and I apologize. I did learn a valuable lesson if that's any comfort. My "theory" (which should not have been stated as fact) was not just based on this one game but I should have taken the time to gather and present a more cohesive argument to present my "theory" with.
I am humbled and embarassed.
Let me part this thread with a respectful question to guide me.
I can gather video eveidence to strongly show the following:
Land based Casinos: on standard slot machines with progressives, the first 2 lowest amount progressives can be predicted within a few spins (10 or less). ie Watch others play and notice when the first progressive pays out, it will continue to pay out the next time that it reaches very close to that amount. This I know for sure and am banned from my city's casino for being able to do this ( yes we only have 1 casino in my city lol). So, is this news or already known?
Online casinos: Increasing bets via coin implement. I only play at 1c and then increase my bets via the amount of coins per line. I don't increase by going from 1c coins to 2c to 5c etc so I have no info on that type of betting. But with the way I play, I can show that the spin you get wagering, say, 3 coins per line is not the same spin that you would get wagering any other number of coins per line. Your result is dependent on how many coins per line that you choose. Is this news or is it already known. Would showing this be a waste of time? ( This is for standard slots by the way, not AWP's (shame on me) ) Any input would be greatly appreciated.
My final study, if I do one at all, will be posted on you tube.

 

[JackMack]

The outcome of the RNG means diddlysquat if the algorithms within the games that provide the weighted mapping for the RNG are biased.
I'm not saying they are but that is why you have system testing as well as RNG testing.
I'm not sure if the 5 reel online slots use virtual reel stops because they are not limited mechanically but they will still have algorithms that adapt the RNG result to the game.For example if you have a pick round and five options they may not all have an equal probability, in fact it is unlikely they do unless all the prizes are very similar. The the RNG might have a result of 1 to 1000 but the algorithm will scale that depending on the probabilities.

The whole RTP by real layout is a bit of a red hearing I reckon. For example we can clearly see with 3 reel slots that have short reels this is not the case or you would be hitting jackpots and bonus rounds far more frequently than you do.

With land based slots they have different versions of the same game with varying RTP by substituting a higher paying symbol with a lower paying one.
Playing online as long as I have I would say something similar is likely with online slots.
Given how streaky some of the games are I find it hard to believe I am playing the same version of the game in the same session at times (scratch that, impossible to believe) but how can you prove it? You probably could statistically but you would need an awful lot of results and for the phenomena to be repeated.
Even if you did would it mean the game was unfair? It would still be giving random results and you would still have a chance to win albeit a little less chance to virtually no chance, who knows?

At the end of the day we have to take it on trust that we are getting something close to a fair game, I very much doubt games are rigged unless it is some crappy software nobody ever heard of. There is just no point when they can win lots of money "fairly" just by tweaking the games to lower payout settings for a few days.

If there were any dodgy goings on like some sort of compensator as with AWP games then it would likely apply to your account and through all games as that would be easily done and wouldn't affect other players. You lose big and moan another guy says he won on same at same time - must be fair right?
Hey I'm not saying anything like that exists, just throwing it out there

For anyone technically mined and wants some real hardcore information on how B&M slots work and likely online slots except without the strict regulation (wink wink) then this is a very informative read.

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If you are losing all the time then take a break like I am going to, it is the only solution. You will just get madder and madder otherwise.

 

[brianmon]

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Very interesting and informative, and as the PAR sheets were from IGT, who are hardly likely to program their online slots any different to their 'physical' video slots. It could be likely that this is how online slots actually do work.

So to change a slot's TRTP, the game engine simply references a different virtual reel map, this could be done on a casino by casino basis or even by individual accounts, as suggested by JackMack. No need to change any reel strips or anything like that.
There could even be ultra 'straight' or even enhanced virtual reel maps for demo/freeplay mode (Mr Playtech)

I'm not saying this is the case. but it would be so so simple to do, and probably quite legal.

 

[JackMack]

Very interesting and informative, and as the PAR sheets were from IGT, who are hardly likely to program their online slots any different to their 'physical' video slots. It could be likely that this is how online slots actually do work.

So to change a slot's TRTP, the game engine simply references a different virtual reel map, this could be done on a casino by casino basis or even by individual accounts, as suggested by JackMack. No need to change any reel strips or anything like that.
There could even be ultra 'straight' or even enhanced virtual reel maps for demo/freeplay mode (Mr Playtech)

I'm not saying this is the case. but it would be so so simple to do, and probably quite legal.

Yes that is why so much of online gaming is about trust or blind faith may be the appropriate phrase.
At least with B&M casinos the slots are set so if you are playing a 92% RTP slot then that is what it is while you play.
Online there is nothing to stop the RTP being changed on the fly even as you play.
I'm not sure whether that would be illegal or not, it might vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction but given the casinos pay their regulators salaries making for a conflict of interests and those regulators are anything but in some jurisdictions then it is a matter of faith whether you think it being legal or illegal makes a difference or not.
Anyway even the better regulators don't do spot checks on the online casinos so if an operator had the ability to do that and so desired it would not be difficult and they wouldn't be caught.
Whenever I have enquired I have always been told the RTP cannot be changed and it is set by the software provider but they would say that wouldn't they.

I have had good and bad streaks at most casinos, most software, but some casinos certainly seem tighter than others.
It's not just that it is much harder to win but that the games "feel" different with just that dead feeling about them even a few spins in. Regular players will know what I mean.

The other thing I have noticed is that after a hot streak goes cold it goes extremely cold. It's like you go from doing no wrong to the complete opposite with no in between. I guess the answer tot hat is more regular cashouts but it does make me wonder why the games can be so streaky, red hot to ice cold, when we are told each spin is independent of all previous results and has the same probability of hitting. It just seems counter intuitive to all my experiences of online slot play.

So I am pretty sure the software and casinos aren't rigged but there is more to online slot play than meets the eye.

 

[Ebolaman]

<yawn> And the whole music industry is corrupt, so is the film industry, pharma, car dealerships, dog food makers, and any industry that deals with money and people. And don't get me started with the government.

LMAO !!!

 

[Finn]

"usually somewhere" - that does not sound like a fact that I would want to risk millions of dollars on the line for, if I were a casino. I would need more than that.

Notice that "usually somewhere" was for a single dice, meaning sequence of 99 throws, which is pretty small sample. I ran that for like 10 times, that is almost 1000 sequences of 99 throws, went through the results with Ctrl+F and only could find individual dice averages starting with 1.3 at smallest and 1.6 at largest, meaning the range was 1.3-1.7. For all dices, 99 dices 99 throws make it a sequence of 9801 throws , that sequence always staid in 14.9-1.51 range, which is practically the expected value of 1.5.

Pub slots have to pay based on what they have recently paid out, because they have so small cash pool. But because roulette tables and crap tables etc have relatively large cash pool, the whole casino vault, they don't need anykind of control, the odds make sure that house wins in the end. Same for online slots.

 

[dunover]

OK, now you understand the way compensated (AWP) games work - history makes a difference to the future outcomes. To the untrained eye they appear 'rigged' or to others 'forceable' and to Vinyl they are 'emptyable'

Online slots as we know work with a RNG and algorithms relating to reel maps to attain their TRTP over time. As a poster above alluded to, the online games simply do not need separate random reels stops (I've always suggested that to varied responses) but simply a win value equating to a reels position outcome 'x' i.e. 0, 0.5 x stake 2 x stake etc. picked by the RNG. This is then represented with a video graphic of reels spinning and stopping equating to the outcome picked by the RNG. I believe further evidence of this is 'gimped' reels we see on some games, whereby the player knows if a win or feature is imminent before the reels even stop.

On the subject of 'predicting small jackpots by amount' this is entirely possible. As the jackpot amounts/game are a separate 'pick' from the base game (which will have a lower RTP as a result) then while the base game is normal the small jackpots may operate similar to an AWP and drop when 'ready'. In this case the pool of outcomes which as we know is 'no win' for nearly every press would simply change to 'all win' at a predictable point. The huge mega jackpots certainly don't work like this, they literally are a pool of values with millions and millions of 'noughts' and just one winning selection. Then again some say they notice certain ones are 'due' at certain amounts, especially on Netents, but I've not seen any evidence other than coincidence.

One thing I still wonder about myself is the games' reaction (that's random slots BTW) to significant stake changes. How does this work to protect casinos, and how can it be engineered to parameters determined by variance? What I mean is that if you are playing a game at say 20p stake for a while, and have a current RTP of say 55% (you've been playing TFTUT or another new Netent ) which is appallingly bad but not uncommon and then raise your stake to £100 a spin (500x more.)

The outcome of doing this just ONCE could literally plummet your RTP to 10% if a losing go, or to hundreds of % positive if a decent winning one of say 30 x stake. What (if any) weighting is there here, and in the context of this question does the game have an account/player-specific return over time OR overall for the game at that casino regardless of individual accounts and what any individual stakes? I ask because there is definitely an unknown here, i.e. the casino takes a smash because ONE player hits 2k x stake at 300 pounds a spin so do all the other players on normal 60p stakes suddenly find their game 'dead' (shouldn't happen on random games) or does the winner's account go 'dead'? Something would have to happen, otherwise the game would have cost the casino a small fortune despite their edge.

 

[whodatrec]

Well, just had a strange thing happen to me and its not the first time.. Alot when u up the bet u seam to hit something on the first spin if the slot is hot. Right now i hit max bet by accident and won 1000€ witch should have been 100€ :xxx One time i also won 10 000€ on one spin, first spin after hitting max bet.. Hard to belive its random when this has happened to me maybe 10 times..

 

[spintee]

Well, just had a strange thing happen to me and its not the first time.. Alot when u up the bet u seam to hit something on the first spin if the slot is hot. Right now i hit max bet by accident and won 1000€ witch should have been 100€ :xxx One time i also won 10 000€ on one spin, first spin after hitting max bet.. Hard to belive its random when this has happened to me maybe 10 times..

lol nice when it happens, I done it the other day on gold factory, Playing 50 lines at 1p 50p a spin and pressed max bet, Just my luck its only about a hand full of machines that goes to 20 credits, so £10 a spin, Only £43 rolled it but would of been annoyed if nothing, Would of been great if a few free spins rolled in

 

[whodatrec]

Thats the main thing that makes me wonder if its random or not. Most of the time if u hit a very big win the slot will go stone cold..ALWAYS! Not middle, not hot, but stone cold.. Also these things that when u hit max bet u hit on the very first spin as if it was ment to be!

 

[dunover]

Well, just had a strange thing happen to me and its not the first time.. Alot when u up the bet u seam to hit something on the first spin if the slot is hot. Right now i hit max bet by accident and won 1000€ witch should have been 100€ :xxx One time i also won 10 000€ on one spin, first spin after hitting max bet.. Hard to belive its random when this has happened to me maybe 10 times..

Yes, but before we make any knee-jerk assumptions, how often does this happen? Is there a positive correlation? I recently had a TSII at RedFlush that had played thousands of spins at 60p, my normal stake. I opened it and did the same, accidentally pressed 'max' and spun first spin at £3 - result was a sh!tstorm paying over 100.....
On Cleopatra on IGT I have noticed the opposite - I have many times been playing at £1 a spin, then got near busting and changed to say 40p and noticed a very quick if not immediate bonus round, and recovered. Then raised back to a quid and seen it die as if I've pressed a hidden button.....
Despite this, I cannot truly say I know it makes a difference...

 

[whodatrec]

Also one thing that corresponds to the thing above.. MG and NetEnt slots seam to behave differently on different bet sizes.. Just saying..

 

[brianmon]

I always seem to win more and get better bonus rounds on TSII and IR, if I'm playing at 60p stake rather than 30p.
Obviously the wins in the base game are going to be twice as much, but they seem to come more frequently.
With bonus rounds, I tend to normally get between 5x and 50x with a 30p stake. But with a 60p stake it tends to be between 20x and 100x stake

 

[spintee]

I always seem to win more and get better bonus rounds on TSII and IR, if I'm playing at 60p stake rather than 30p.
Obviously the wins in the base game are going to be twice as much, but they seem to come more frequently.
With bonus rounds, I tend to normally get between 5x and 50x with a 30p stake. But with a 60p stake it tends to be between 20x and 100x stake

opsite for me, if play min i get roughly x stake back, if bet bigger I not get double, hapens on all machines I play unless just unlcky,
My first ever win decent win was near £3000 of a 30p be, tnow if playing £30 bet I dout it give me 100x that 300,000 You tell me as I been a nutter since and loking for another 1
I forgot to say at the time I had no I.D and was using my misses name, and when won it I thought I was gona get all the paypal charges ect, (as that what I used) so I rang up puting a voice on and pretend I was her, They excahnge from payplal to bank even low I not used the bank, and money was in 3 days later, I was not conning but just goes to show how that it could happen hence reason they are abit strict now,
This was in my first week of online gamble Im not a con artist and I have had a good relationship with them untill they went tits up, & also split with the missus for over 4 years

 

[brianmon]

opsite for me, if play min i get roughly x stake back, if bet bigger I not get double, hapens on all machines I play unless just unlcky,
My first ever win decent win was near £3000 of a 30p be, tnow if playing £30 bet I dout it give me 100x that 300,000 You tell me as I been a nutter since and loking for another 1
I forgot to say at the time I had no I.D and was using my misses name, and when won it I thought I was gona get all the paypal charges ect, (as that what I used) so I rang up puting a voice on and pretend I was her, They excahnge from payplal to bank even low I not used the bank, and money was in 3 days later, I was not conning but just goes to show how that it could happen hence reason they are abit strict now,
This was in my first week of online gamble Im not a con artist and I have had a good relationship with them untill they went tits up, & also split with the missus for over 4 years

I wasn't meaning that the higher you go the better you do. because 90p and higher always seem to be just as cold for me as 30p.
I was meaning that 60p seems to be the ideal stake for me.
I've also found that if i'm doing ok and the wins are quite regular. As soon as i increase my stake. the whole slot goes cold

 

[spintee]

I wasn't meaning that the higher you go the better you do. because 90p and higher always seem to be just as cold for me as 30p.
I was meaning that 60p seems to be the ideal stake for me.
I've also found that if i'm doing ok and the wins are quite regular. As soon as i increase my stake. the whole slot goes cold

Forget my writing, I no where you coming from, I steady out at a normaly play and seem to get somwhere as soon as I change its gone, But Im feed up now at keep at same stake, I canot really aford much bigger and any less its not worth it unles u get a good hit,

Seems us (me) need abit of luck now days,

I wish us all some goOd spinning

 

[catapultaudio]

Well, just had a strange thing happen to me and its not the first time.. Alot when u up the bet u seam to hit something on the first spin if the slot is hot. Right now i hit max bet by accident and won 1000€ witch should have been 100€ :xxx One time i also won 10 000€ on one spin, first spin after hitting max bet.. Hard to belive its random when this has happened to me maybe 10 times..

How many times have you done the same and lost though? I've no doubt there are hundreds, probably thousands of horror stories you'd be able to find from people who made this common mistake and got a big fat zero after making a ridiculous sized spin.

It sure makes a nice change to hear somebody say they think the slot is rigged in their favour when accidentally hitting max bet - it sure is a new one for me! - but I promise I've heard the opposite enough times to be pretty certain your just one lucky S.O.B

 

[brianmon]

I've just done something similar at Thrills. I forgot to change the coin value from 5p/line to my normal stake on cftbl of 1p/line, and this dropped in on the second spin, I only realised my mistake, when i saw my balance had gone up by £50+, and not £11+ as expected

 

[JackMack]

The max bet button is a bit of a scandal really, why is it always close to the spin button? In fact why is it there at all?
If they think it is really necessary it would be very easy to put in a line of code that warned you the first time you pressed it and asked if you wanted to continue but they don't.
It is really annoying if you are low rolling and trying to stay in the game and wipe out a large percentage of your remaining balance on one spin.

 

[gooneybird]

For the most part Casino games, video slots, slots, RNG table games etc, are provided to Casinos as a service (Software as a Service) by the different suppliers (NetEnt, Microgaming, GTS, etc).

The actual software running the games is generally hosted in whatever jurisdiction the games are certified in. On Malta for LGA, Aldernney for AGCC, Gibraltar for GBGA certified games, and so on. Certifications are performed by a number of accepted test houses (depends on the jurisdiction). The technical requirements for certification are publically available and can be read by anyone. If a game has been certified then that means that the RTP has been independently verified, and that the RNG for that particular provider has been certified.

The whole business is built on trust, if the players don't trust the games, they won't play them, which in turn means the suppliers and different casino operators wont earn any money.

I know that sometimes it feels like there must be something going on at with a game, but its just bad luck, as long as you're playing at a reputable Casino which is using certified games you can be pretty sure that the games are working as advertised.

As far as the slot math goes, take a look at something called Markov chains.

Cheers, and have fun gaming!

 

[mathsboy1975]

Markov chains in relation to slot mathematics? But the next state in a Markov chain depends on the current state and only the current state, and that doesn't sit well with how most people view how the slot maths works. Care to expand on how the Markov models are used in slot mathematics?

From what I have read on this forum, most people seem to think that each outcome is based purely on random number generators. Are you actually saying that Markov chains ARE used in slot software or is it just a theory.

 

[gooneybird]

Markov chains in relation to slot mathematics? But the next state in a Markov chain depends on the current state and only the current state, and that doesn't sit well with how most people view how the slot maths works. Care to expand on how the Markov models are used in slot mathematics?

From what I have read on this forum, most people seem to think that each outcome is based purely on random number generators. Are you actually saying that Markov chains ARE used in slot software or is it just a theory.

Theoretical, the key component is that markov chains are memoryless, and not affected by events that preceed it. Used for calculating probability.

As you know Slots are made with sets of reels, each reel has a number of symbols on it. Symbols have to line up in winlines to provide a win. The reels themselves are static, and defined, and while this can be complex it is how the RTP is determined. This is the math model so to speak and is what the test houses verify.

The RNG is something completely different and that value is what tells you which symbols are supposed to show up. Threre are a number of accepted algorithms for RNGs, depends on the jurisdiction which ones they accept.

RTP is based on the specific games Math Model. RNGs are based on the algorithm. So, basically math models are unique to each game (unless they are skins of already existing slots), and the RNG is the same for every game provided on a particular platform.

 

[mathsboy1975]

Theoretical, the key component is that markov chains are memoryless, and not affected by events that preceed it. Used for calculating probability.

As you know Slots are made with sets of reels, each reel has a number of symbols on it. Symbols have to line up in winlines to provide a win. The reels themselves are static, and defined, and while this can be complex it is how the RTP is determined. This is the math model so to speak and is what the test houses verify.

The RNG is something completely different and that value is what tells you which symbols are supposed to show up. Threre are a number of accepted algorithms for RNGs, depends on the jurisdiction which ones they accept.

RTP is based on the specific games Math Model. RNGs are based on the algorithm. So, basically math models are unique to each game (unless they are skins of already existing slots), and the RNG is the same for every game provided on a particular platform.

Memoryless, but the next state depends on the current. Thus at any particular time, the next state is constrained to be a realisation from a finite number of possible states, and these possible states depend on the current state. I have no inside track on how slots are created but if slot machines are using a markov chain to generate reel outcomes then by definition the next outcome depends on the current one.

This would mean that at certain points you would be restricted from hitting certain reel combinations. Consider the most obvious example of random walk - the next state is one of only 2 possible outcomes. If you are already 20 steps to the right of your start point, it is impossible to get back to the start point on your next step.

Maybe I am misunderstanding what you are saying here but I have worked with Markov chains in the past and I cannot see how you would use them to determine reel position outcomes.

 

[incrediblestuff]

Interesting, i am by no means a math wiz, but i could see how the concept of said Markov chains be applied to slots in a simple logical conclusion:

As Mathsboy says there is a finite number of outcomes from certain points in a chain (i do not know this to be a fact but lets go from there) and if we then look at the pool of outcomes for a certain slot, we must conclude that if the number of outcomes from certain points where to be finite, the pool of outcomes from the slot's rng is most definitely limited to all the possible combinations of the symbols and values on the "paytable", in this regard i see no disadvantage of a chain's possible limitations, as long as the numbers correspond/ are covered.

I think most slot developers can apply models in a proper way, and put in code that for instance would make such a pool of outcomes loop, or even randomize, so that even those points in the chain with the least possible outcomes (provided it "goes from that last state" like you said) could be repeated and this would mean it negates the limits.

I often have pondered about the "last state" of a slot: take MG, if you log in, and open a slot you've played, it will be in this "last state", exactly like you left it.

Does this come into play when theorizing about the application of these Markov chains?
I am just theorizing myself, theorizing on a theory with an element that is new to me

@ Gooney: do you have a background in slot development or any ties to the industry that would explain your knowledge, or are you also theorizing?

 

[brianmon]

Is that why I always seem to have more luck when i play a slot for the very first time? And, when you open, say, IR or TSII for the very first time, where there is no 'previous' state, does everyone see the same reel positions?

 

[dunover]

Theoretical, the key component is that markov chains are memoryless, and not affected by events that preceed it. Used for calculating probability.

As you know Slots are made with sets of reels, each reel has a number of symbols on it. Symbols have to line up in winlines to provide a win. The reels themselves are static, and defined, and while this can be complex it is how the RTP is determined. This is the math model so to speak and is what the test houses verify.

The RNG is something completely different and that value is what tells you which symbols are supposed to show up. Threre are a number of accepted algorithms for RNGs, depends on the jurisdiction which ones they accept.

RTP is based on the specific games Math Model. RNGs are based on the algorithm. So, basically math models are unique to each game (unless they are skins of already existing slots), and the RNG is the same for every game provided on a particular platform.

If anything this would explain the paradox between slots working on a RNG basis and people observing 'patterns' of varying distinction in play over a period of time. This could have serious consequences for my thriving foil-hat business.

 

[mathsboy1975]

Interesting, i am by no means a math wiz, but i could see how the concept of said Markov chains be applied to slots in a simple logical conclusion:

As Mathsboy says there is a finite number of outcomes from certain points in a chain (i do not know this to be a fact but lets go from there) and if we then look at the pool of outcomes for a certain slot, we must conclude that if the number of outcomes from certain points where to be finite, the pool of outcomes from the slot's rng is most definitely limited to all the possible combinations of the symbols and values on the "paytable", in this regard i see no disadvantage of a chain's possible limitations, as long as the numbers correspond/ are covered.

I think most slot developers can apply models in a proper way, and put in code that for instance would make such a pool of outcomes loop, or even randomize, so that even those points in the chain with the least possible outcomes (provided it "goes from that last state" like you said) could be repeated and this would mean it negates the limits.

I often have pondered about the "last state" of a slot: take MG, if you log in, and open a slot you've played, it will be in this "last state", exactly like you left it.

Does this come into play when theorizing about the application of these Markov chains?
I am just theorizing myself, theorizing on a theory with an element that is new to me

@ Gooney: do you have a background in slot development or any ties to the industry that would explain your knowledge, or are you also theorizing?

The thing is though that if slots are totally random then they must not be modelled at all - they should simply randomly select an outcome (set of reel positions/symbols) that is completely independent of all previous outcomes. In a Markov chain, the next state depends on the current state and so this would limit the possible outcomes and would appear to violate the requirements of randomness.

Now although I have used Markov chains in research in the past, I know absolutely jack sh*t about random number generation and it may be that there are RNG algorithms out there that employ Markov chains. The related area of Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to generate samples from a probability distribution using an appropriately chosen Markov Chain. In that regard I can see a possibility in the usage. The thing is though that most members here seem to think that slots work by randomly chosing an outcome (set of reel positions) from the set of all possible outcomes. In this sense using Markov chains would seem to be overkill as this just requires sampling from a uniform distribution (one in which all outcomes have the same probability).

This is the reason that I picked up on gooneybirds post as I wondered if he is actually involved in game development at all or just theorizing.

 

[Tirilej]

This is the reason that I picked up on gooneybirds post as I wondered if he is actually involved in game development at all or just theorizing.

I would say he is, even if it just say Games maker in his profile

Now I don't understand what he said about how the games are working. Math is mostly a guy thing and I won't even try to get it.

But this part of what he said is the most important thing for me and is why I trust the casinos I play in.

''The actual software running the games is generally hosted in whatever jurisdiction the games are certified in. On Malta for LGA, Aldernney for AGCC, Gibraltar for GBGA certified games, and so on. Certifications are performed by a number of accepted test houses (depends on the jurisdiction). The technical requirements for certification are publically available and can be read by anyone. If a game has been certified then that means that the RTP has been independently verified, and that the RNG for that particular provider has been certified.''

Don't doubt for a minute that Netent, Microgaming and others are reading this forum. They are, but few are brave enough to speak, or even allowed to do it.
I love when they do