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Credit card - Martingale betting system

Discussion in 'The Attic' started by jshort, Oct 8, 2014.

    Oct 8, 2014
  1. jshort

    jshort Experienced Member MM PABaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    Bus Driver
    Location:
    Canada
    Something for any math peeps around

    I know all Martingale systems don't work in the long run, but I'm curious to see if anyone's tried anything similiar to below;

    Assume a couple things

    1) You have several credit cards from several companies and ALL will raise your limit continiously on a predictable basis so long as you can continue to pay it off. Assume your limit doubles every single year.

    2) You gamble once per year playing roulette (that has one 0) and wagering on a single number instead of red/black. You don't necessarily use a doubling strategy after each loss, but each wager is higher than the previous for consecutive losses.

    .........

    Assume in year #1 you have $10,000. Is it possible to devise a betting system such that after 10 years, your odds of becoming a millioniarre exceed 40%??

    ...........

    Haven't worked the above out myself yet, but my guess is the answer is YES!
     
  2. Oct 8, 2014
  3. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    60% odds of OWING a million.

    Card companies do not "Martingale" your credit limits anyway. My experience is that there is a steady but small increase in my limit, perhaps one increase every couple of years. Just because you can service $10,000 doesn't mean you can service $20,000, and then $40,000 the following year.

    If this system does work, it's because the card company is left with the bad debt 60% of the time, and has to pursue a bankrupted cardholder who can just wait a few years until the bankruptcy is discharged before having another go. This makes it a form of no-lose system for the punter. No wonder card companies perceive gambling transactions as "high risk".

    It's unlikely that they will give any limit increases if as soon as they do, the entire amount is spent in a "gambling transaction".
     
    5 people like this.
  4. Oct 8, 2014
  5. jshort

    jshort Experienced Member MM PABaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    Bus Driver
    Location:
    Canada
    More like 40% millionaire, 30% OWING a million +, 30% of putting a gun to ones head!

    Seriously this hypothetical scenario is more of theoretical interest. With that said, its also seems easy to get more credit either by asking for a limit raise or just getting additional credit cards. However this is too difficult to quantify, hence I just assumed a yearly "doubling" for the sake of simplicity.

    I suspect there are those lucky few who have gotten rich by taking these risks. You don't need to have jackpot winning luck to get it either, which was basically my main selling point.
     
  6. Oct 8, 2014
  7. chuchu59

    chuchu59 gambling addict CAG PABnonaccred

    Occupation:
    EXECUTIVE
    Location:
    SOMEWHERE IN ASIA
    My guess is if this system is used the op needs to change his username to dshort very soon with the 'd' being 'dough'.
     
  8. Oct 8, 2014
  9. suzecat

    suzecat Dormant account CAG MM webmeister

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    California
    Hello jshort!

    Your assumptions are not very realistic IMO. As far as I have seen, credit card companies never double credit limits annually (or any other predictable basis) for anyone except the Bill Gates and Warren Buffets of the world.

    Gambling laws in Canada might be something you should read up about and this link could get you started (if you haven't done this research already) You must register/login in order to see the link.

    Vinyl is very savvy about this stuff and if he predicts you'll lose your shirt, then you'll probably lose your shirt :D

    I still wish you luck in your endeavors!
     
  10. Oct 8, 2014
  11. jshort

    jshort Experienced Member MM PABaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    Bus Driver
    Location:
    Canada
    Err, kinda regretting making this thread now.
     
  12. Oct 8, 2014
  13. Valhalla

    Valhalla The Professional MM

    Occupation:
    Poker Player
    Location:
    Northern Ireland
    I think the OP's question was just "Is it theoretically possible?" right? :D
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. Oct 8, 2014
  15. JackTenOff

    JackTenOff Webmaster webmeister

    Occupation:
    nananananana
    Location:
    uk
    I wonder how many credit card companies will double your limit after looking at your history and see one deposit of $5,000 to billys online casino?
     
  16. Oct 8, 2014
  17. paul7388

    paul7388 Meister Member MM

    Occupation:
    not a lot
    Location:
    glasgow scotland
    I would say that the odds of becoming a millionaire will never reach 40% In fact I would say the odds of ever being in profit are very small indeed.

    If you are only betting on one number then you should never end up with a huge profit.

    If you raise your stakes each time you bet that number if it ever lands the profit will be very small unless you are lucky enough to land it several times early on.

    Remember there will always be a max amount that can get bet on a single number and although the odds pay 35/1 on that number when it lands you could spin hundreds or thousands of times without ever hitting that number.
     
  18. Oct 8, 2014
  19. mathsboy1975

    mathsboy1975 Senior Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    software engineer
    Location:
    UK London
    Starting with $10000 available on credit cards in year one and your limit being DOUBLED after a year would give you a limit in excess of $1 million and I can't see credit card providers indulging you there.
    If you worded it as "Given a finite bankroll of $X ....." then it would be an interesting theoretical exercise for an undergraduate course in probability.

    The only reason Martingale systems do not work is because of the practical limits encountered like max bet and a finite bankroll. If you ran it with a limitless pot of money and at a casino with no max bet limit then it would work beautifully. In practical terms of course this is about as useful as a waterproof teabag....
     
  20. Oct 9, 2014
  21. tennis_balls

    tennis_balls Dormant account

    Occupation:
    fish n chips promoter
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    a more foolproof method of becoming a millionaire is to affix a tracking device to vinylweatherman's van and then shadow his every move...
     
    1 person likes this.
  22. Oct 11, 2014
  23. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    It's been tried. Only ONE person ever managed to achieve this. It was a mate, and we would go out playing machines together. He had the annoying habit of going on a machine I had just left, and dropping a jackpot or two, or a couple of cash repeaters.

    Try it. I have been playing the "Major Millions" progressive (3 reel) more than usual recently, and it's getting to over £800,000. I hit £800, the red sevens with one wild, so it's heating up.
     
    1 person likes this.

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