Corona virus - Covid 19 discussion

[geordiecolin]

Did you bother reading that link? You know, exactly what I posted above?
Dealer said 'SAGE predicted 200,000 a day by Aug 1st loooooool'

SAGE didn't predict anything of the sort. Ferguson said

Prof Neil Ferguson said it was “almost inevitable” that Monday’s final phase of unlocking would bring on 100,000 daily cases, with about 1,000 hospitalisations – despite roughly half the UK being fully vaccinated. He added that he could foresee a situation in which the case rate expands to twice the size.

“The real question is do we get to double that – or even higher,” he told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday,. “And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean, we could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day – but it’s much less certain.”

That is not predicting 200000 cases, it's saying he could see it being so many. Just like the initial modelling was based on worse case scenario. Doesn't mean it will. I would quote the part where he mentions August 1st, but as it isn't mentioned, I can't. That was probably just dealer's fantasy. Maybe ask him where he got his 'facts' from though, he won't answer anyone else with questions like that, maybe he will you.

"While emphasising it was “very difficult to make precise predictions”, he added: “I think it’s almost certain we’ll get to 1,000 hospitalisations per day.
“It’ll almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. The real question is, do we get to double that or even higher? And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. We could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day, but it’s much less certain.”
Professor Neil Ferguson also said high levels of infection rates could push up the number of people suffering from long Covid.
“We know now that probably around a quarter of people who get symptomatic Covid – get symptoms – have those symptoms for a long period of time,” he said.
He added that according to Office of National Statistics figures “about a million” people had long Covid and this could “go up to another half million on top of that”."
He even went further and proposed it could be more than 200,000. Dealer can hardly be accused of lying or trolling with what he said. Ferguson predicted that it could be even more than 200,000 cases. Even if he said he could expect just 1000 per day it is still only a prediction.
You are simply wrong and dealer was correct.

 

[colinsunderland]

"While emphasising it was “very difficult to make precise predictions”, he added: “I think it’s almost certain we’ll get to 1,000 hospitalisations per day.
“It’ll almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. The real question is, do we get to double that or even higher? And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. We could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day, but it’s much less certain.”
Professor Neil Ferguson also said high levels of infection rates could push up the number of people suffering from long Covid.
“We know now that probably around a quarter of people who get symptomatic Covid – get symptoms – have those symptoms for a long period of time,” he said.
He added that according to Office of National Statistics figures “about a million” people had long Covid and this could “go up to another half million on top of that”."
He even went further and proposed it could be more than 200,000. Dealer can hardly be accused of lying or trolling with what he said. Ferguson predicted that it could be even more than 200,000 cases. Even if he said he could expect just 1000 per day it is still only a prediction.
You are simply wrong and dealer was correct.

He made 3 statements

1. SAGE predicted
2. 200000 cases per day
3. By 1st August

Feel free to show where 1 and 3 were mentioned at all?

He predicted 100000 cases per day, and clearly was just saying it could get higher, he even said 'the real question is' and talks about a crystal ball and how it is much less certain, so not a prediction, just something he thinks might happen.

I can see where you are coming from on that part as 200k was mentioned, even though I disagree with it being a prediction, but nowhere was 1st of August mentioned, nor was it SAGE who predicted it. He even specifically said it would take at least 3 weeks for the effects of removing restrictions to be seen, 3 weeks from 19th July is not 1st August.

 

[mack341]

Ferguson is a member of nervtag afaik, who also advise the govt on covid, why they need his discredited modelling who knows, marr and the bbc giving him a platform to spread more fear speaks volumes.

NERVTAG is​

an expert committee of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), which advises the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) and, through the CMO, ministers, DHSC and other government departments.​

It provides scientific risk assessment and mitigation advice on the threat posed by new and emerging respiratory viruses and on options for their management.

--------​

According to the public accounts committee the govt's response to covid has so far cost £370 billion​

 

[bamberfishcake]

govt's response to covid has so far cost £370 billion

Somebody somewhere is making a fortune.

My guess is the pharma's and companies (friends) drafted to run operations like the purchase and manufacturing of PPE they had no experience in.

Had to get home testing kits the other day so went online and found an impressively long list of libraries, community centres and pharmacies, literally 4 or 5 places I could go in less than 10 minutes walk.

Popped around the corner and was asked how many I needed, replied 3 and took 3 kits home. Several tests inside each and made in China

Those tests alone must have been a pretty penny.

 

[Casinomeister]

OK folks - let's play nice here. This is getting a bit too heated and I really don't want to shut down this thread AGAIN. You can get your point across without the name-calling - please remember this.

 

[geordiecolin]

He made 3 statements

1. SAGE predicted
2. 200000 cases per day
3. By 1st August

Feel free to show where 1 and 3 were mentioned at all?

He predicted 100000 cases per day, and clearly was just saying it could get higher, he even said 'the real question is' and talks about a crystal ball and how it is much less certain, so not a prediction, just something he thinks might happen.

I can see where you are coming from on that part as 200k was mentioned, even though I disagree with it being a prediction, but nowhere was 1st of August mentioned, nor was it SAGE who predicted it. He even specifically said it would take at least 3 weeks for the effects of removing restrictions to be seen, 3 weeks from 19th July is not 1st August.

If the minister for transport is interviewed on tv on matters of transport it is universally excepted that he is officially commenting in his professional capacity.
If the SAGE epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology advisor is being interviewed on tv about epidemiology and mathematical biology ................

3 weeks was not a million miles away from the start of August but at this point you are picking at straws in order to labour your point. Maybe Dealer wants to clarify it? But then again maybe not.

My last word on it

 

[cncas2123]

I will stick this here so that dealer can tell us why its wrong and how lockdown and vaccines never solved anything, the lockdown only led to 300,000 suicides and the vaccines are going to cause 10,000,000 deaths in the next 5 years...

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[mack341]

What happens if we don't reach herd immunity, esp for the vulnerable?

Edit: I wonder if you're vaccinated with astrazeneca's one say and then you catch covid, in fighting off the virus will you gain aspects of natural immunity to it too, so not just to the spike.

 

[X-Raided]

What happens if we don't reach herd immunity, esp for the vulnerable?

Edit: I wonder if you're vaccinated with astrazeneca's one say and then you catch covid, in fighting off the virus will you gain aspects of natural immunity to it too, so not just to the spike.

So it appears to be looking more and more like WHEN will you catch Corona, not IF.

Vaccinate, social distance and mask up all you want, it looks like EVERYONE will eventually catch Corona.. (unless one lives in an underground bunker by themselves for the rest of their years)

 

[mack341]

Don't know if I agree with this or not ?

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[mack341]

I knew it was fast but not this quick...but was it 2hrs or 3???

 

[mack341]

At last the moggfather and some other conservative mps have woken up to the effect vaccine passes will have on day to day life, tearing up long held freedoms, once the principle is accepted it won't end with nightclubs and one double dose for covid.

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[sufferinsilence]

Interesting (sub)thread. The main thread itself is also interesting, and scary tbh. (Sorry, you'll have to click on it to read all of it)

 

[mack341]

Long covid may be tied up with the immune system/auto immune disease as presumably the coronavirus is no longer in their body, but some reaction is still causing symptoms, they haven't solved the riddle of M.E. and that must be 30 years in existence.

Not entirely sure how the US health insurance works but having an illness no one can get to the bottom of must be a nightmare financially as well.

The uk Nhs is in kind of disarray atm, all its services are impacted, massive backlog of patients. Consultants typically holiday break now, and if covid or the flu and lockdown return in the winter (nov) does that leave enough time to see the waiting list patients, 3 months basically.

 

[mack341]

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-according to WHO figs, so the lockdown worked well. The swedish scientist said you end up delaying the cases and deaths, but that scenario was without a vaccine, and i'd have thought the vaxxed rate on the IOM must be high now.

Edit. Iom or any of the channel islands would have been good places to trial ivermectin for early treatment before hospitalisation.

 

[Gaz237]

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-according to WHO figs, so the lockdown worked well. The swedish scientist said you end up delaying the cases and deaths, but that scenario was without a vaccine, and i'd have thought the vaxxed rate on the IOM must be high now.

Edit. Iom or any of the channel islands would have been good places to trial ivermectin for early treatment before hospitalisation.

Choppers will blame Brexit.

 

[mack341]

Not always easy to do but true

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[sufferinsilence]

 

[dealer wins]

Try that on me and they will know about it lol

 

[dealer wins]

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-according to WHO figs, so the lockdown worked well. The swedish scientist said you end up delaying the cases and deaths, but that scenario was without a vaccine, and i'd have thought the vaxxed rate on the IOM must be high now.

Edit. Iom or any of the channel islands would have been good places to trial ivermectin for early treatment before hospitalisation.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

Say no more!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[mack341]

Typical of this fake conservative govt, don't like the advice sack and get some in there that will agree with your predetermined plan, jabbing 12 yr olds is going to be the next step, there will be casualties but the govt won't give a stuff. I had a feeling the original advice wasn't going to be well received.

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[DreamRJ]

Well I just wanted to share this, So I was always told I could not have immunizations. But when this whole shitty covid situation happened and they got a vaccine, I just did not want to risk having it incase I had a severe reaction as my parents always told me that I have had reactions to some vaccines when I was younger. I also remember going to a special hospital a few times for certain vaccines so they could do a smaller dose first to see if I had a reaction or not then gave me the full dose an hour later.

But anyway, I kept putting it off and off and off for this very reason. But I finally decided to just ring the damn doctor and they called me back on Thursday and said they have looked at my medical history going back since I was a kid and they can not see anything that causes them alarm in other words. I never had one of those anaphylactic reactions. So the doctor said I should be fine. So this also stopped me from going out as well because of the fact I still was not vaccinated. I also was recently diagnosed with more health issues. I also was too scared to go back to the hospital to start treatment for that too, incase I caught covid while in hospital. I can not put it off any longer and my health situation was getting to the point where anything could happen to me at any moment. So I had to finally act and do something about it.

So yeah, On Friday I got the call back from the GP Surgery and they booked me in today Saturday at 3:10pm. So yeah It was also a Pfizer vaccine too cos I am under 40. Anyway so finally I had my first vaccine, it has now been 2 hours and I feel fine. No reactions as yet. So I am actually annoyed I did not act far sooner now. All because my health has deteriorated soo much during the Covid situation. So at least now I can start to get my issues sorted and start treatments and get well again.

Anyway I just wanted to share it with you all. I am relieved but annoyed all at the same time that I put myself in such a mess that I just kept saying no no no because I might have a reaction to it. When all I should have done is spoke to the doctor Much sooner than I did. I am just so stupid really. But hey we are all human and we all do things we do not like doing sometimes. Even though we know it is having bad effects on your health too.

So yeah I will be getting my second jab in hopefully 5 weeks time. But at least I can now get to the doctors without the risk of catching a severe version of covid. I am still going to wear a face covering.

 

[sufferinsilence]

Well I just wanted to share this, So I was always told I could not have immunizations. But when this whole shitty covid situation happened and they got a vaccine, I just did not want to risk having it incase I had a severe reaction as my parents always told me that I have had reactions to some vaccines when I was younger. I also remember going to a special hospital a few times for certain vaccines so they could do a smaller dose first to see if I had a reaction or not then gave me the full dose an hour later.

But anyway, I kept putting it off and off and off for this very reason. But I finally decided to just ring the damn doctor and they called me back on Thursday and said they have looked at my medical history going back since I was a kid and they can not see anything that causes them alarm in other words. I never had one of those anaphylactic reactions. So the doctor said I should be fine. So this also stopped me from going out as well because of the fact I still was not vaccinated. I also was recently diagnosed with more health issues. I also was too scared to go back to the hospital to start treatment for that too, incase I caught covid while in hospital. I can not put it off any longer and my health situation was getting to the point where anything could happen to me at any moment. So I had to finally act and do something about it.

So yeah, On Friday I got the call back from the GP Surgery and they booked me in today Saturday at 3:10pm. So yeah It was also a Pfizer vaccine too cos I am under 40. Anyway so finally I had my first vaccine, it has now been 2 hours and I feel fine. No reactions as yet. So I am actually annoyed I did not act far sooner now. All because my health has deteriorated soo much during the Covid situation. So at least now I can start to get my issues sorted and start treatments and get well again.

Anyway I just wanted to share it with you all. I am relieved but annoyed all at the same time that I put myself in such a mess that I just kept saying no no no because I might have a reaction to it. When all I should have done is spoke to the doctor Much sooner than I did. I am just so stupid really. But hey we are all human and we all do things we do not like doing sometimes. Even though we know it is having bad effects on your health too.

So yeah I will be getting my second jab in hopefully 5 weeks time. But at least I can now get to the doctors without the risk of catching a severe version of covid. I am still going to wear a face covering.

I had a severe reaction to a jab when I was a kid. We used to get jabs at school and apparently (I don't remember any of this luckily) I had a reaction to one of them. After that I had to get them at my GP instead but never had a reaction again. I have quite a few allergies so they never really figured out what caused it. That made me a little nervous about this one too, and my anxiety didn't help to say the least. So I asked my current GP and the head doctor at the vax centre, they looked at my situation (allergies and asthma) and told me it should be fine and there was an ER doctor at the site if anything was to happen.

Anyway, long story short. The first jab I had to stay for 30 minutes in observation instead of the usual 15 and nothing happened. 2nd one they asked if I had any discomfort the first time but seen that nothing happened I could go after 10 minutes. They didn't really time it. The only side-effect I had both times was a slightly sore arm for a couple of hours.

But I get why people with a history of bad reactions to a vaccine or other medicine are hesitant. Instead of looking up all the shit on the web they should just get in touch with their doctor instead and talk with them. I also get that people are worried about long time side-effects of the vaccines, but I think they should be even more worried about long time side-effects of going through covid.

It's a shitty situation, we all want to get back to normal but some do everything in their power so we stay in the same situation as the past year and a half. I don't really understand that.

 

[DreamRJ]

I had a severe reaction to a jab when I was a kid. We used to get jabs at school and apparently (I don't remember any of this luckily) I had a reaction to one of them. After that I had to get them at my GP instead but never had a reaction again. I have quite a few allergies so they never really figured out what caused it. That made me a little nervous about this one too, and my anxiety didn't help to say the least. So I asked my current GP and the head doctor at the vax centre, they looked at my situation (allergies and asthma) and told me it should be fine and there was an ER doctor at the site if anything was to happen.

Anyway, long story short. The first jab I had to stay for 30 minutes in observation instead of the usual 15 and nothing happened. 2nd one they asked if I had any discomfort the first time but seen that nothing happened I could go after 10 minutes. They didn't really time it. The only side-effect I had both times was a slightly sore arm for a couple of hours.

But I get why people with a history of bad reactions to a vaccine or other medicine are hesitant. Instead of looking up all the shit on the web they should just get in touch with their doctor instead and talk with them. I also get that people are worried about long time side-effects of the vaccines, but I think they should be even more worried about long time side-effects of going through covid.

It's a shitty situation, we all want to get back to normal but some do everything in their power so we stay in the same situation as the past year and a half. I don't really understand that.

Yeah I agree. I to suffer from anxiety too. It sux a lot. But I just live with it the best I can. It does make my sleep pattern get all over the place. I can never get up at fixed times because my anxiety does not allow me too.

I do urge everyone though if you too was in a similar situation like me and @sufferinsilence was in, then yes PLEASE PLEASE contact your doctor and ask them for a phone consultation and ask them to check your medical history while on the phone and they will tell you there and then if you will be fine to have it or not!

I am just annoyed I waited all this time. I mean I could have had the vaccine like 4 months ago. I was in the Vulnerable group so I got invited pretty early on but I just kept ignoring the texts because of the situation I explained in my above post.

 

[Jono777]

Side note and I don't mean this in a bad way anyone......

In a strange sort of way, it is "good" to finally read of some on here who are suffering with anxiety, glad I am not alone but at the same time would not wish it on anybody.

The reason I post this is because last few months mine has been awful, never though physical symptoms could arise from anxiety but boy how wrong was I.