Thanks, CL-Ed, you continue to bring the data that makes this all possible.
Here's some further analysis. Using the figure of a 1% contribution to the jackpot as discussed in the thread on your site, and the average win for each jackpot, I figured the jackpot odds as follows (for the jackpots that have actually been won):
Bad Girl 1¢, Bovada: 1 in 23,400
Bad Girl $1, Bovada: 1 in 21,883
Bad Girl 2¢, Slots.lv: 1 in 21,867
Bad Girl 5¢, Slots.lv: 1 in 21,253
Bad Girl 10¢, Slots.lv: 1 in 21,400
Bad Girl 25¢, Slots.lv: 1 in 21,792
Bad Girl 50¢, Slots.lv: 1 in 19,877
Bad Girl $1, Slots.lv: 1 in 19,169
So it's fair to say that the Bad Girl jackpot odds are around 1 in 20,000. (Without listing all the figures, suffice it to say that the jackpot odds for Good Girl are about in 11,000.)
The current Bad Girl 5¢ jackpot at Bovada is around $209,779. With a 3.75¢ contribution and a $400 reseed level, it's been played about 5,583,440 times without hitting, when all evidence is that it should hit around 1 in 20,000 spins. I think the way to calculate the odds of not hitting after 5.6M times if the odds are 1 in 20k is (19999/20000)^5583440. If that's correct, then the chances that it hasn't hit are 1 in 17,600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Someone check my math on that one please?
Anyway, now I'm starting to doubt that the jackpot odds are really settable after all. I could see being able to bump the chances of winning down from 1 in 20,000 to 1 in 100,000, or possibly even 1 in 500,000, but 1 in SEVERAL MILLION?! (And we don't even know what the upper number is, because it hasn't hit yet.) So, either the jackpot odds are WILDLY, FANTASTICALLY settable, or there's some software problem. Unfortunately, neither Bovada nor Betsoft are helping us find out which is the case.
Finally, I'm reposting one of CL-Ed's images here (back when Good Girl exhibited the same problem), because it kind of crystalizes the problem. I don't think anyone can look at this graph and conclude that there's no problem.
I hope Bovada will give a more meaningful answer.