Blackjack experts? or math experts?

[Rusty]

Yeah the small data size argument does not always apply.
If the anomalies are large enough a small data set can still be good evidence that something may well be wrong if not absolute proof.

You play a guy at heads and tails you call 25 Tails it comes Heads every time.
You are not suspicious because it is a small data set?

That said it would be crazy to rig software that produced such results. (or would it, double bluff ;P)

 

[Eliot Jacobson]

Calculation

I have not read the thread carefully, and I don't know if anyone else has done this.

I can assume the game is shuffled after every hand. That is typical. This is a simple binomial distribution problem.

p = probability of blackjack.
q = probability of not-blackjack.

The answer is

probability of EXACTLY 7 blackjacks in 25 hands is:

combin(25,7)*(p^7)*(q^18).

Note, this is EXACTLY 7 and not 7 OR MORE.

Now, lucky for us, p is approximately 1/21 (I don't know the exact conditions of the game, so that is what I'll use). So with p = .04762 and q = .95238 I get

probability of EXACTLY 7 blackjacks in 25 hands is: .0001109 or about 1 in 9016 samples of 25 hands. Again, this is using p = (1/21) which is not an exact number, but close enough.

Now, a similar computation gives:

Probability of 7 OR MORE blackjacks in 25 hands is: 0.0001247 or about 1 in 8021 samples of 25 hands.

Note, "1 in 8021 samples of 25 hands" is different from saying "once every 8021 hands."

This may be frustrating for the Player, but it is not statistically significant for the sample size.

 

[Rusty]

I have not read the thread carefully, and I don't know if anyone else has done this.

I can assume the game is shuffled after every hand. That is typical. This is a simple binomial distribution problem.

p = probability of blackjack.
q = probability of not-blackjack.

The answer is

probability of EXACTLY 7 blackjacks in 25 hands is:

combin(25,7)*(p^7)*(q^18).

Note, this is EXACTLY 7 and not 7 OR MORE.

Now, lucky for us, p is approximately 1/21 (I don't know the exact conditions of the game, so that is what I'll use). So with p = .04762 and q = .95238 I get

probability of EXACTLY 7 blackjacks in 25 hands is: .0001109 or about 1 in 9016 samples of 25 hands. Again, this is using p = (1/21) which is not an exact number, but close enough.

Now, a similar computation gives:

Probability of 7 OR MORE blackjacks in 25 hands is: 0.0001247 or about 1 in 8021 samples of 25 hands.

Note, "1 in 8021 samples of 25 hands" is different from saying "once every 8021 hands."

This may be frustrating for the Player, but it is not statistically significant for the sample size.

The Player stated he lost 23 of 25 hands and the other Two were pushes.
Yes somebody else has done the Blackjack calculations but good to see the equations and explanations.

 

[3Dice]

Hi Guys,

I have mailed rick his logs well over 10 hours ago, and I'll leave it up to him to post further details. I will rectify some of the statements already made tho.

There are two short sessions from rick today, one lasted 14 rounds - 4 minutes (6 wins - 1 push - 7 losses) - in which he doubled his balance. The other started 8 minutes later and lasted 25 rounds - 6 minutes - (10 wins - 3 pushes - 12 losses) - the largest sequence of losses is 6.

There's not much more data to go on - lifetime stats are 89 rounds (at 103.44%...) - and that says it all really .. Rick, whatever events you saw that you felt were unlucky, even less likely lucky events occurred to as there's no other way for your payout to be above 100% ..

And also, just to avoid confusion, I'd like to add to Dr Jacobson's statement : "1 in 8021 samples of 25 hands" is different from saying "once every 8021 hands." - that its the same as saying 1 in 8046 hands. (as 8046 hands represent 8021 different sequences of 25 hands.).

Kindest Regards,

Enzo

 

[RobWin]

Hi Guys,

I have mailed rick his logs well over 10 hours ago, and I'll leave it up to him to post further details. I will rectify some of the statements already made tho.

There are two short sessions from rick today, one lasted 14 rounds - 4 minutes (6 wins - 1 push - 7 losses) - in which he doubled his balance. The other started 8 minutes later and lasted 25 rounds - 6 minutes - (10 wins - 3 pushes - 12 losses) - the largest sequence of losses is 6.

There's not much more data to go on - lifetime stats are 89 rounds (at 103.44%...) - and that says it all really ..

Kindest Regards,

Enzo

So Rick was lying to all of us then?? That's certainly the way it appears judging by what you said here Enzo.

 

[3Dice]

So Rick was lying to all of us then?? That's certainly the way it appears judging by what you said here Enzo.

RobWin,

I wouldn't put that so strong - he clearly stated he was waiting for his logs and human memory isn't exactly failsafe - especially when angry. (the session ended with that sequence of 6 losses and an increasing betsize) - the scenario is not uncommon for that strategy btw, and emotions tend to grow with the betsize and each consecutive loss.

Lets perhaps wait for rick's response before we discuss this any further.

Kindest Regards,

Enzo

 

[jas2587]

Thank you once again, I am just waiting on the casino to sumbit the play-history to me,

so i can post it here for a futher view from people.

I wont name the casino, cause i dont want to cause any problems, but its not
microgaming,playtech,bossmedia,rival, or any of the major ones. This casino uses it's own software, also has no audits done or any sort of payout proof history/aduits by thrid parties.. Ive heard good things about this casino, payout speeds etc so i figured i'd give it a try.. boy was that a mistake... or i just won the nagtive jackpot of odds in badluck

If and when this casino gives me the history, i;ll glady post it.

Enzo I think Rob was getting at these points
sorry dont have the quote down to a sciencew as in 1 line at a time lol


{{ am just waiting on the casino to sumbit the play-history to me, so i can post it here for a futher view from people If and when this casino gives me the history, i;ll glady post it}}

is the way I percieved it not the amount of hands etc as he clearly had the logs when he posted if I can still add an read a time frame

Cindy

 

[rick07]

Thanks for the replies,


I was not reffering to 3dice casino, But if i must go in detail it is a grand virtual software casino, which also i am having an issue of payment. I didnt lose, well i did actually lose 25$x3 and deposits, and was able to make it back with a 35 $ deposit taking some high risk hands, the 7 blackjacks occured when i first signed up to this casino, playing in total with 100$ deposit over 25 hands.

Using slots i was able to make it back,

Also Enzo, if you would have read what i wrote... I did say this was my first time playing at the casino, last nights blackjack or 3dice wasnt my first time playing was it? i deposited 3x proior to this.

I dont have any comments about 3dice, but its a very fast payout, and super fast customer serive, whom are all very nice.


I admit that i did close my account due to my bad streak in your casino, infact i belive 3 of my friends who also joined your casino also closed their accounts due to your limited amount of games, and such.. i just followed the tread and days prior to this tried an other casino, using its own software.. that is where this blackjack session occured, and also payment problems.. who i still have hear back from.

Once again, Yes i did close my 3dice casino account.. compared to microgaming or etc, your game choices and slots are limited.. and yes mix in a bit of bad luck.. and hey what the hell.. there's 100's of other casinos to play at..

I did have a bad luck streak at 3dice casino and had my account closed, I never accused them of anything but did comment on there dealers blackjack luck, they also had a high blackjack ratio for that game session for the dealer but nothing that special... no where near the game sample from grand virtual tho.. to what i was posting about.

 

[mrcj]

hell,

It may seem that you've been done over but it is actually possible to hit 7 bj's in 25 hands, if you had hit them rather than the dealer would you have questioned it???

Also, could it be that your just not the player you believe yourself to be?

 

[Rusty]

hell,

It may seem that you've been done over but it is actually possible to hit 7 bj's in 25 hands, if you had hit them rather than the dealer would you have questioned it???

Also, could it be that your just not the player you believe yourself to be?

It may be best to stick to the facts rather than hypothetical arguments that are irrelevant especially when you follow that up by goading the OP.

With your line of reasoning we could conclude a game of find the Lady was fair in a Paris backstreet.

If you had asked what strategy Rik employed or how many times he bust that would of been a fair and reasonable question.

Rik you did say you lost 23 and pushed 2 in 25 hands right (Your first 25 hands)?
If so that would be cause for concern (assuming you are not the worse blackjack player in the World) but as I have said if it was rigged it makes little sense to make it so obvious and other people would surely have similar results?

 

[XOXOXOXOXOX]

I wont name the casino, cause i dont want to cause any problems, but its not
microgaming,playtech,bossmedia,rival, or any of the major ones. This casino uses it's own software, also has no audits done or any sort of payout proof history/aduits by thrid parties.. Ive heard good things about this casino, payout speeds etc so i figured i'd give it a try..

I was not reffering to 3dice casino, But if i must go in detail it is a grand virtual software casino, which also i am having an issue of payment.

My understanding there are a few casinos using Grand Virtuals software and I thought they (GV) casinos were audited and members of Online Gaming Alliance...At least this is what one of them claims on their website, i did not bother to check all of them... Also, where did you read about their fast cashouts?
I am not saying their are not fast , i just did not see any resent posts about it nor can i find it on the web

Just find the details you posted a bit confusing....

 

[rick07]

hey guys, dont get me wrong.. i am not calling anybody rigged...

I started this topic with just a math question and regards odd's..or if someones seen worse.

I am up, about 50$ and did withdrawl "if i ever get paid the rest of 110$ owed"


Ive played at, all casinos besides rival i belive they dont allow canadian players.. but microgaming,playtech,rtg,bossmedia, etc, Ive never seen such bad luck or blackjacks for the dealer then on grand virtual, hell as i said i may have won the unlucky jackpot of losses or whatever.. i am not yelling rigged... just curious on the odd's and what other people's are experiences with there own worest run in blackjack.


However regarding this current casino, i am not yelling rigged, but i am seriously very.... very unhappy with the withdrawl currently on going.


Also i am not sure where i said there withdrawls were fast at all, however ive never played at any casino with such poor support, and weird withdrawls not to mention lossing my winnings due to bank fee's and etc.. for 50$


When i mentioned fast payouts or etc, i was reffering to 3dice, not this current casino..

 

[GaryWatson]

hey guys, dont get me wrong.. i am not calling anybody rigged...

I started this topic with just a math question and regards odd's..or if someones seen worse.

I am up, about 50$ and did withdrawl "if i ever get paid the rest of 110$ owed"


Ive played at, all casinos besides rival i belive they dont allow canadian players.. but microgaming,playtech,rtg,bossmedia, etc, Ive never seen such bad luck or blackjacks for the dealer then on grand virtual, hell as i said i may have won the unlucky jackpot of losses or whatever.. i am not yelling rigged... just curious on the odd's and what other people's are experiences with there own worest run in blackjack.


However regarding this current casino, i am not yelling rigged, but i am seriously very.... very unhappy with the withdrawl currently on going.


Also i am not sure where i said there withdrawls were fast at all, however ive never played at any casino with such poor support, and weird withdrawls not to mention lossing my winnings due to bank fee's and etc.. for 50$


When i mentioned fast payouts or etc, i was reffering to 3dice, not this current casino..

Im not a fan of online blackjack. it can be rigged & Im sure CM can testify to it. 25 losses does happen during live games but rare, as do 25 wins. I witnessed 13-16 reds on a roulette table and the odds are pretty similar.

CM, sorry for my outburst. Aka, I have blocked you so we will have no further issues, its the best I can do.

 

[jas2587]

Yeah the small data size argument does not always apply.
If the anomalies are large enough a small data set can still be good evidence that something may well be wrong if not absolute proof.

You play a guy at heads and tails you call 25 Tails it comes Heads every time.
You are not suspicious because it is a small data set?

That said it would be crazy to rig software that produced such results. (or would it, double bluff ;P)

lol what about the 2 headed quarter huh huh
just havin fun here with Rusty

Cindy

 

[Rusty]

lol what about the 2 headed quarter huh huh
just havin fun here with Rusty

Cindy

Then that would explain 25 consecutive Heads and that you were right to be suspicious of the anomalous results.

 

[funky_seagull]

hey guys, dont get me wrong.. i am not calling anybody rigged...

I started this topic with just a math question and regards odd's..or if someones seen worse.


Ive played at, all casinos besides rival i belive they dont allow canadian players.. but microgaming,playtech,rtg,bossmedia, etc, Ive never seen such bad luck or blackjacks for the dealer then on grand virtual, hell as i said i may have won the unlucky jackpot of losses or whatever.. i am not yelling rigged... just curious on the odd's and what other people's are experiences with there own worest run in blackjack.

I had a problem a while back with grand virtual's blackjack. I felt it was too biased towards the dealer. It was very difficult to win a hand, and it became very frustrating and I also noticed, (and this may have been a coincidence I alone experienced.) that the blackjack in play for fun mode was a lot easier than it was in real money mode. I noticed this because I played for fun first and did ok and thought because I was doing ok in play for fun I would move over to play for real, when I did this, I noticed a definate rise in difficulty.

I wrote them an email voicing my concerns and I will copy and paste the response I got to see if it helps you:

Thank you for your inquiry.

Both our Free and Real Modes use our proprietary RNG. We have conducted
extensive testing over trillions of gaming cycles to ensure that dealer
actions are completely random and unpredictable. Moreover, any
regularity or repeating pattern in the RNG would spell doom for any
casino property that uses it because such repetitiveness gives an
advantage only to players. If players could predict a future outcome
because the RNG was proved to be not completely random, they would be
able to easily win large sums of money and break the casino bank.
Therefore, it is in the best interests of every online casino to ensure
randomness in the RNG. No casino would intentionally have an RNG that is
not random because they would shortly go out of business.

You cannot tell the behavior of a game from a small sample size. To
properly analyze the behavior of any casino game you need to run
hundreds of millions of trials. To correctly ascertain RNG randomness,
one cannot just look at thousands of game results. One cannot just look
at millions of game results. One must examine billions or trillions of
game results to ensure complete randomness.

We stand by our gaming software as completely fair, random and adhering
to gaming industry standards.

Kind regards,
Customer Care Team

 

[rick07]

Hi there and thanks for the reply,

I agree, i also felt the fun mode and real play.. were quite different,

that reponse i find it laughable, first of all, the pattern talk... if they wanted to they can make it random but still in favour of the casino... how exectly can a player take advantage of a dealers winning pattern, But who knows.. i am not claiming anything..

as i just posted in my last thread, this casino finally responded after 5 days, there was a error in the cash procossor so they say.. and i should expect the money soon. After this i am staying far away from grand virtual casinos thats for sure...

I just joined up cherry red... and wow what an amazing casino, from 25$ deposit, i am up to 300$+ with just blackjack... what a difference vs grand virtual, playing 1$ hands from 20$ to 200+, with dealer getting 6 blackjacks and myself getting 6 in 300+ hands.. anyways


I am also still waiting on the play history from this casino, along with my payment and account closure,


thanks for the replies

Rick

 

[GaryWatson]

We have conducted
extensive testing over trillions of gaming cycles to ensure that dealer
actions are completely random and unpredictable. Moreover, any
regularity or repeating pattern in the RNG would spell doom for any
casino property that uses it because such repetitiveness gives an
advantage only to players......

No casino would intentionally have an RNG that is
not random because they would shortly go out of business......

You cannot tell the behavior of a game from a small sample size. To
properly analyze the behavior of any casino game you need to run
hundreds of millions of trials..........

Kind regards,
Customer Care Team

1 million hands is fairly accurate. How accurate do you have to be? 2%, 10% 40%

VWM is someone who has exposed fruit machines,

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

.

Their answer fails to answer any concerns.

Blackjack cannot be beaten online, long term and thats by legit means.

Is auditing done on a random basis?

Even if it was, would 1 million hands satisfy?

I highly doubt it.

Automatic reshuffling should allow for only one deck of cards. A sample of 10,000 hands would show a flaw.

Too many questions for me to trust online blackjack.

Bad runs happen but seem to happen more online. I rarely play BJ online so I cannot really comment on specific sites but I have notice with the small sample of hands I have played.

If in doubt, quit playing the game online. You will never have another losing online BJ streak again.

 

[rick07]

Hi Guys,

I have mailed rick his logs well over 10 hours ago, and I'll leave it up to him to post further details. I will rectify some of the statements already made tho.

There are two short sessions from rick today, one lasted 14 rounds - 4 minutes (6 wins - 1 push - 7 losses) - in which he doubled his balance. The other started 8 minutes later and lasted 25 rounds - 6 minutes - (10 wins - 3 pushes - 12 losses) - the largest sequence of losses is 6.

There's not much more data to go on - lifetime stats are 89 rounds (at 103.44%...) - and that says it all really .. Rick, whatever events you saw that you felt were unlucky, even less likely lucky events occurred to as there's no other way for your payout to be above 100% ..

And also, just to avoid confusion, I'd like to add to Dr Jacobson's statement : "1 in 8021 samples of 25 hands" is different from saying "once every 8021 hands." - that its the same as saying 1 in 8046 hands. (as 8046 hands represent 8021 different sequences of 25 hands.).

Kindest Regards,

Enzo

I just came on today to realize something funny,

first of all Enzo, what right do you have to post my game history on a public forum? Second of all if you kept up reading my posts 3Dice wasnt the casino in question, third of all once again if you did read i also said this was the first time i played at your casino.. 3Dice ive played at 3Dice more times then once and deposited more then once..

I like to know how you assumed i was speaking about your casino when the facts i stated didnt reffer to your casino, nor did a mention a name, at later stage i did say it was a grand virtual software casino, which you clearly dont use.


I am not impressed, I quess its ok to request other player's play history then in public?

But i will say, for the fastest payouts and great customer serive 3dice is for sure number 1.. even makes red32 look slow..

Ive had nothing but postive things to say about your casino, however i did question your dealer's blackjacks in that small sessison in livechat, also your casino in livechat told me two different stories regarding having your account reopened and closed, and did reopen it when infact following step one which turned out to be step two at the casinos discrection,

regardless, the casino in question did payout recently as i posted, i am still waiting on the game history and a list of transactions with that casino which I well keep on file and post "if and whenever i get it"

best regards,


Rick

 

[jas2587]

I just came on today to realize something funny,

first of all Enzo, what right do you have to post my game history on a public forum? Second of all if you kept up reading my posts 3Dice wasnt the casino in question, third of all once again if you did read i also said this was the first time i played at your casino.. 3Dice ive played at 3Dice more times then once and deposited more then once..

I like to know how you assumed i was speaking about your casino when the facts i stated didnt reffer to your casino, nor did a mention a name, at later stage i did say it was a grand virtual software casino, which you clearly dont use.


I am not impressed, I quess its ok to request other player's play history then in public?

But i will say, for the fastest payouts and great customer serive 3dice is for sure number 1.. even makes red32 look slow..

Ive had nothing but postive things to say about your casino, however i did question your dealer's blackjacks in that small sessison in livechat, also your casino in livechat told me two different stories regarding having your account reopened and closed, and did reopen it when infact following step one which turned out to be step two at the casinos discrection,

regardless, the casino in question did payout recently as i posted, i am still waiting on the game history and a list of transactions with that casino which I well keep on file and post "if and whenever i get it"

best regards,


Rick

Rick IMO you are in the wrong here you yourself said as soon as you got them that you would post them

IMO you are playing like 100 hands of BJ here an there an asking for a play history which could be why it was assumed that you was talking about 3Dice an since you said you would post Enzo went ahead an did it for ya
an really that doesnt look like game stats to me just a bunch of #s

Every 1 knows I am not a huge Fan of 3Dice an its only cause I never win there like others do call it Jealousy an I have always been on the bash train

by you questioning in live chat dealers blackjack would make any casino rep think whoa that person is talkin about my casino I need to explain our side it is easy to assume hell we all assumed you was talking about 3Dice as soon as you posted

3Dice is not the best casino an they 4 sure are not the worst if you like high varience an have money to throw away this place is for you they do in fact have great customer support fast cashouts an live chat an what they call free tourneys show me another casino that offers all that in some ways you get more bang for your buck in others your buck goes ......

Now you peeps dont have a cow cause Jas posted a positive thread about 3Dice

Cindy

an FTR I dont even know what Stats look like

 

[rick07]

Rick IMO you are in the wrong here you yourself said as soon as you got them that you would post them

IMO you are playing like 100 hands of BJ here an there an asking for a play history which could be why it was assumed that you was talking about 3Dice an since you said you would post Enzo went ahead an did it for ya
an really that doesnt look like game stats to me just a bunch of #s

Every 1 knows I am not a huge Fan of 3Dice an its only cause I never win there like others do call it Jealousy an I have always been on the bash train

by you questioning in live chat dealers blackjack would make any casino rep think whoa that person is talkin about my casino I need to explain our side it is easy to assume hell we all assumed you was talking about 3Dice as soon as you posted

3Dice is not the best casino an they 4 side are not the worst if you like high varience an have money to throw away this place is for you they do in fact have great customer support fast cashouts an live chat an what they call free tourneys show me another casino that offers all that in some ways you get more bang for your buck in others your buck goes ......

Now you peeps dont have a cow cause Jas posted a positive thread about 3Dice

Cindy

an FTR I dont even know what Stats look like

Hi Cindy,

I havent gotten the gaming history from the casino, and 3dice was not the casino that i am waiting for the game history, i wanted to make that clear the casino in question was a grand virtual run one, not 3dice, I did close my
3dice casino... however i do this for all casinos i close, as do other people do i am sure.


I never accused 3dice of being rigged, or told them that, I said, the dealer just does to good and too many blackjack for my likeing, and to please close my account, no where did i mention "rigged" "scam" hell i even told them to keep the change 80 cents or somethin, cause i wouldnt be back to play, a bit expensive to deposit in canadian currency. I am in good standing with 3dice , nor have i committed any frauds to them etc.

I was asking for plain odds, for math experts as i said in the scene of 25 hands delt, 23 lost, 2 pushed, This was not my game play at 3dice, nor close to it, nor has it been my first time play there or deposit, so i really fail to see how 3dice would think i am speaking about them.. nor did i put any names out and i still dont.. so 3dice was never named rather, it wasnt even the subject.



The hands dealt at 3dice are no where near what i posted i am sure Enzo can tell you exectly that i didnt get 3 blackjacks from the dealer every hand, big lossing streak sure, however i am entitled to closing whatever account i want whenever i want, 3dices main reason to being closed is due to only having american currency, that being side my credit card company rapes me with the exchange rates and cash advance fee, and not to mention i am not keen on 100$ limit blackjacks, closing my account had nothing to do with losing at 3dice nor did i mention to them i would post anything about them and i didnt even name them!


If i said hey close my account your blackjack is rigged, or i threaten them in any way of posting a gaming history.. or etc common sense would have told them, this might happen.. however that wasnt the case at all nor close.

Thanks for your replies,

Rick

 

[jas2587]

ok I will give ya that but like I said we all thought you was talkin 3Dice to begin with least I did but I am not gonna argue or fight over this
I see where it could have easly been assumed that you was talkin about 3Dice

Good Luck Hope Ya Win

Cindy