Blackjack experts? or math experts?

rick07

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Location
toronto
Will today has been intresting, I was playing at a certain casino, and noticed this streak


What are the odds of getting 7 blackjacks for the dealer in 25 hands.
0 for the player. Not in a row, seems like every 3rd hand would be a blackjack.. for the dealer.


I know its a very small sample size, however this isnt about winning or payouts or etc, just odd wise, 7 blackjacks from unknowned deck size this casino doesnt disclose the decks, in 25 hands.


Would love to hear back with the odd's and if anybodys seen worse from a non rogued casino.


Best Regards

Rick:thumbsup:
 

aka23

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Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
The chance of 7+ blackjacks in 25 hands is about 1 in 8000. That sounds rare, but if you think about how many sets of 25 hands you had to play to see it, it becomes more reasonable.
 

GaryWatson

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Jun 15, 2007
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Europe
aka, stuff the neg rep you gave me, lol. Lets bring it to the table. We should do this live. Lets do a Q&A online.
 

rick07

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Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Location
toronto
Thanks for your reply,

not sure what you ment how many sets of 25 hands comment ment,


This was the first time ive played at the casino, only 25 hands were played ever it makes any difference.

I also won 0 hands out of 25, 2 pushs 2x 21's and in total 7 blackjacks for the dealer, and 0 busts for the dealer within those 25.


if any of that information made a difference to change the odds from 1-8000 let me know please,

Thank you again for your time to answer this question.:notworthy
 

GaryWatson

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Location
Europe
Thanks for your reply,

not sure what you ment how many sets of 25 hands comment ment,
.:notworthy

It means nothing other than set up posts. CM, ban me for this, otherwise i will keep calling out the spammer. AKA, I have given you a challenge, but I want it in real time.
 

NASHVEGAS

Banned User - flamming, disrespecting admin,
Joined
Dec 10, 2006
Location
MERS
Thanks for your reply,

not sure what you ment how many sets of 25 hands comment ment,


This was the first time ive played at the casino, only 25 hands were played ever it makes any difference.

I also won 0 hands out of 25, 2 pushs 2x 21's and in total 7 blackjacks for the dealer, and 0 busts for the dealer within those 25.


if any of that information made a difference to change the odds from 1-8000 let me know please,

Thank you again for your time to answer this question.:notworthy
Odds are .4825. Sorry my little calculator only goes 5 decimals which are all zeros:eek:..........I am guessing I need 8 or 9 decimals and the first 7 would be goose eggs.
 
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aka23

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Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
Thanks for your reply,

not sure what you ment how many sets of 25 hands comment ment,


This was the first time ive played at the casino, only 25 hands were played ever it makes any difference.
I assumed you'd played a lot more than 25 hands of blackjack. I meant if you'd played 1000 hands of BJ to complete a wagering requirement, the odds of having a run of 7+ out of 25 blackjacks within that 1000 hands is a lot higher than the quoted 1 in 8000. One could make a similar statement for the # of hands played with the software before seeing the issue.

I also won 0 hands out of 25, 2 pushs 2x 21's and in total 7 blackjacks for the dealer, and 0 busts for the dealer within those 25.


if any of that information made a difference to change the odds from 1-8000 let me know please,

Thank you again for your time to answer this question.:notworthy
Winning 0 out of 25 hands has a lot lower odds than 7 out of 25 hands being BJs. The chance of winning 0 out of 25 is ~(1-0.435)^25 ~= 1 in 1.6 million (assuming optimal strategy).

With which software did this occur?
 

rick07

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Mar 10, 2009
Location
toronto
Thank you once again, I am just waiting on the casino to sumbit the play-history to me,

so i can post it here for a futher view from people.

I wont name the casino, cause i dont want to cause any problems, but its not
microgaming,playtech,bossmedia,rival, or any of the major ones. This casino uses it's own software, also has no audits done or any sort of payout proof history/aduits by thrid parties.. Ive heard good things about this casino, payout speeds etc so i figured i'd give it a try.. boy was that a mistake... or i just won the nagtive jackpot of odds in badluck :eek2:

If and when this casino gives me the history, i;ll glady post it.
 

NASHVEGAS

Banned User - flamming, disrespecting admin,
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I also remember (hopefully correctly) from Eliot Jacobson's book "THE BLACKJACK ZONE", that the Dealer running thru a perfect shoe where a shoe assumes 27 hands played has an expectation of occurring once in every 500,000,000 shoes.

You will probably have racked up winning 6,7,8 or 9 Powerball lotteries so the Dealer having a perfect shoe will not really be a big deal:D:rolleyes::D
 
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NASHVEGAS

Banned User - flamming, disrespecting admin,
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No, that is the odds of losing a hand. The chance of not getting a win is not the same of loss (remember that there were pushes).
The 27 vs. 25 was a typo as I was thinking of Eliot's baseball analogy of the perfect game as I typed. Hard to do 2 things at once.:p

Yes, you are correct as I threw the ~.09 pushes out. But my .48 was actually based on the odds of losing assuming no pushes (which I should have not assumed) or ~ .48/.52 versus ~.43/.48/.09. Kinda ironic that ~.48 can represent losses or wins depending.
 

GaryWatson

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Europe
I have no idea what you are talking about. I may be open to a Q/A, as you described, but I'd need more information.

You are damn right you have no idea. I Q, you A, you Q, I A, screw your specific stats, lets play. I doubt your ability, you have a forum you have to prove to, Ive replied to a few of their posts
 

NASHVEGAS

Banned User - flamming, disrespecting admin,
Joined
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Location
MERS
Thank you once again, I am just waiting on the casino to sumbit the play-history to me,

so i can post it here for a futher view from people.

I wont name the casino, cause i dont want to cause any problems, but its not
microgaming,playtech,bossmedia,rival, or any of the major ones. This casino uses it's own software, also has no audits done or any sort of payout proof history/aduits by thrid parties.. Ive heard good things about this casino, payout speeds etc so i figured i'd give it a try.. boy was that a mistake... or i just won the nagtive jackpot of odds in badluck :eek2:

If and when this casino gives me the history, i;ll glady post it.
No guesses from moi:rolleyes::):)
 

jas2587

Ueber Meister
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Location
FL
Thank you once again, I am just waiting on the casino to sumbit the play-history to me,

so i can post it here for a futher view from people.

I wont name the casino, cause i dont want to cause any problems, but its not
microgaming,playtech,bossmedia,rival, or any of the major ones. This casino uses it's own software, also has no audits done or any sort of payout proof history/aduits by thrid parties.. Ive heard good things about this casino, payout speeds etc so i figured i'd give it a try.. boy was that a mistake... or i just won the nagtive jackpot of odds in badluck :eek2:

If and when this casino gives me the history, i;ll glady post it.

eww eww waves hand franticaly in the air like Horshack from Welcome Back Kotter I know i know pick me pick me:rolleyes:

ya know Gabe Kaplin is a profesional poker player also:)

Cindy
 

tombee

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Wageningen, Netherlands
I've seen these kind of things at bodog.. Lots of BJ's over there and most of the times with the dealer ;) Can't remember to see it anywhere else but chances are small I did not experience this at another casino.
 

Trollet

Meister Member
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Jan 16, 2005
Location
Sweden
I just had to put a little answer into this...
Even if i dont know crap about BJ....
But..i do know that even if things should be like this or like that..it can be something totally different.

Take for example Tut Ankh Amun at 3Dice ( i know..its a slot..but i just wanna make a point here)

On average you get 3 tuts once every 156 spins...
3 tuts gives you 20 free spins...
I think my best is 230 free spins...
So..how many sets of 3 tuts did i get during the first 156 spins?
Get my point?

So...i totally ruined the odds for it...
But...it might as well be the other way around...i can spin 300 spins and not get 1 set with 3...

Isent that how it works with everything?

And...isent it also the way we people work.. If i get 230 free spins..im happy as h***...but boy...give me the 300 spins with non...and im just the other way around :)


((((HUGS))) Trollet
 

Casinomeister

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Location
Bierland
You are damn right you have no idea. I Q, you A, you Q, I A, screw your specific stats, lets play. I doubt your ability, you have a forum you have to prove to, Ive replied to a few of their posts

Please watch the tone. Thank you.
 

KasinoKing

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CAG
MM
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I wont name the casino, cause i dont want to cause any problems, but its not microgaming, playtech, bossmedia, rival, or any of the major ones. This casino uses it's own software, also has no audits done or any sort of payout proof history/aduits by thrid parties.. Ive heard good things about this casino, payout speeds etc so i figured i'd give it a try..
Oh - so it's 3Dice then!

Hmmmmm...
 

lots0

Banned User - troll posts - flaming
Joined
Jun 3, 2006
Location
Hell on Earth
Thank you once again, I am just waiting on the casino to sumbit the play-history to me,

so i can post it here for a futher view from people....

...If and when this casino gives me the history, i;ll glady post it.

25 hands is far too small of a sample to bother wasting time examining.
a 25 hand sample would prove absolutely nothing (except for the huge variance on such a small sample).
 

XOXOXOXOXOX

Let em spin...
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Joined
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Location
O Canada!
25 hands is far too small of a sample to bother wasting time examining.
a 25 hand sample would prove absolutely nothing (except for the huge variance on such a small sample).

agree however what fascinates me here is that it's always a dealer who benefits from this huge variance. :rolleyes:
 

aka23

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Joined
Jun 11, 2006
Location
Planet Earth
25 hands is far too small of a sample to bother wasting time examining.
a 25 hand sample would prove absolutely nothing (except for the huge variance on such a small sample).
If you ran a random blackjack simulation, it would take an average of approximately ~1.6 million sets of 25-hand samples before getting a set with no player wins, as was described. This rareness makes the result a concern, even though only 25 hands were played with the software.

However, I do agree that analyzing card distribution and such would be unlikely to show clear random/non-random results with this low amount of data. Ideally, you'd want to get logs from the player to show that he did not make an error in reporting the # of hands played and # of wins. And you'd also want to get more data from other players, to see if rare results were repeatable, and if any other play stats were also rare over a larger sample.
 
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