World Cup 2026 World Cup 2026 - USA/Mexico/Canada

[Webzcas]

Ok we are now a week away from the World Cup 2026 which kicks off in Mexico City, where one of the hosts Mexico, plays South Africa in the opening game, a fixture that is in Group A of the draw.

This thread is a dedicated thread to all posts concerning the World Cup. For those of you that haven't as of yet registered an interest in our very own Casinomeister World Cup Sweepstake - with a prize of €150 on offer to the winner! - Check out this thread World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Competition 2000EUR - Casinomeister Forum

Be sure to register your interest before midnight on 11th June to be able to take part!

 

[Webzcas]

I live about ten miles from Frome. This is what someone did to the sign you pass when entering the town during the World Cup in Qatar!

 

[Webzcas]

So to get into the Pre World Cup spirit, here is arguably the best ever England World Cup song. Also growing up, Italia 90 when I was 16, was for me my most memorable World Cup. However, after the defeat to Germany in the Semi Finals, I cried, I cried a lot

 

[Webzcas]

 

[satchnz]

I live about ten miles from Frome. This is what someone did to the sign you pass when entering the town during the World Cup in Qatar!

View attachment 221585

If that's not an early jinx I don't know what is!

Oh, and go NZ! lol

 

[Jono777]

So to get into the Pre World Cup spirit, here is arguably the best ever England World Cup song. Also growing up, Italia 90 when I was 16, was for me my most memorable World Cup. However, after the defeat to Germany in the Semi Finals, I cried, I cried a lot

The first WC I properly watched, understood and took in. I'd just turned 18 at the time.

I'd also say despite it not coming home, the best WC I've watched, up to and including present day.

 

[Wait!What?]

Just been through the teams who have qualified for the world cup and I see only 7 teams who can win it - England, Portugal, Argentina, France, Spain, Germany or Brazil.

 

[Webzcas]

I don't know, The Sweep pays 3rd place and there is usually an un-fancied team that makes it to the Semi Finals.

 

[Jono777]

I don't know, The Sweep pays 3rd place and there is usually an un-fancied team that makes it to the Semi Finals.

Morocco last time around IIRC?

 

[Mr Shine]

Just been through the teams who have qualified for the world cup and I see only 7 teams who can win it - England, Portugal, Argentina, France, Spain, Germany or Brazil.

I think the true no-hopers are Jordan, Curacao, South Africa, Panama, Iraq, Cape Verde, Qatar, Congo, Uzbekistan, NZ, Haiti, Saudi Arabia. Anybody else could win it.

 

[avfcalex23]

Heading out to Texas in a week. Cannot wait.

It’s coming home

 

[sufferinsilence]

I think the true no-hopers are Jordan, Curacao, South Africa, Panama, Iraq, Cape Verde, Qatar, Congo, Uzbekistan, NZ, Haiti, Saudi Arabia. Anybody else could win it.

I wouldn't underestimate DR Congo, not to win it of course but they might be one of the teams to cause an upset.

Anyway, the way the tournament is setup it takes a long time before it gets interesting. Some of the better teams might take it easy in the group stages to get a favorable path, or have to start without some of their star players like Spain who'll probably have to miss Yamal in the first games.

 

[sufferinsilence]

Heading out to Texas in a week. Cannot wait.

It’s coming home

Hope you haven't posted anything nasty on social media or it's coming home very soon

 

[satchnz]

I think the true no-hopers are .......................................................................................................................................NZ ..................... Anybody else could win it.

Oi!

But yes, true.

 

[Kroffe]

Norway competing for best team photo.

 

[Webzcas]

Saw this just now. Absolutely brilliant!!!

 

[geordiecolin]

I am thinking that the team to win it will be from either North America or the hotter parts of Europe. The climate will have something to say about how teams will cope and England will do well to get to the latter stages. Either Argentina or Brazil for me

 

[Webzcas]

Just been giving some of the sides a once over and the French attacking options are on another level. Surely they will be there or thereabouts again, the runners up from 2022 and winners in 2018.

 

[Webzcas]

So the odds are currently:

• Spain 5/1
• France 6/1
• England 8/1
• Portugal 9/1
• Argentina 10/1
• Brazil 10/1
• Germany 15/1

 

[Webzcas]

It's World Cup Day!!!!!

One of the three hosts Mexico, take on @Nate's South Africa in the opening game of Group A in Mexico City.

 

[sufferinsilence]

It's World Cup Day!!!!!

One of the three hosts Mexico, take on @Nate's South Africa in the opening game of Group A in Mexico City.

I'm predicting Mexico to win 2-0 at the Azteca Stadium. Home nation versus a team that hasn't been at a WC since they organised it and at 2200m altitude... Going to be tough for South Africa there.

 

[Webzcas]

As long as there are no vuvuzelas!! I was quite pleased England got knocked out by Germany in the second round of South Africa 2010 because of them, even though we got beat 4 - 1.

 

[Guntis]

What do you think about giving an AI a prompt like this for placing bets? I'm not a bettor and only watch football when there are big games on, like right now. I'd essentially place bets on countries i think will win without even knowing how their players play

My thinking is that AI can give recommendations based on data research. Sure, it won't guarantee wins, but people usually have a bias. So i think in this case, AI would give a cold recommendation.

Would you add anything to this prompt or make it simpler? I might give it a try with a few quid.

--- Football Prompt:

Act as a professional football betting analyst focused on value betting for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Analyse the upcoming match between [Home Team] and [Away Team] in [Group/Stage] on [Date] at [Venue].

Use the latest data on recent national team form (last 6-10 internationals, qualifiers, friendlies), FIFA rankings, head-to-head records, expected goals (xG) from recent games, full squad availability including club fatigue and injuries, player motivation for national pride, tactical setups under the coach, travel distance and venue conditions (altitude, weather, pitch), and group situation (e.g. must-win or rotation risks).

For main markets (1X2, over/under 2.5 goals, BTTS) calculate estimated true probabilities. Compare them to current odds from major bookmakers like Pinnacle or Bet365. Identify any +EV opportunities.

Provide step-by-step reasoning, recommended bet(s) with conservative stake as % of bankroll (flat or Kelly), confidence level, and main risks or failure scenarios. Only recommend bets with clear edge; otherwise say avoid. Also note any group stage implications.

---

 

[Webzcas]

The problem with this though is that most models have data up to a certain point in time, meaning they are not up to present day. So certainly local LLM's it will be a no go. For instance the 70b parameter version of DeepSeek I run on my M3 Ultra Studio is up to middle of 2023.

Plus you also have to factor in the climate etc etc. I think it would not improve your odds of winning personally.

 

[Guntis]

I'm trying to get the right prompt myself now and checking which AI gives better recommendations. I gave the prompt i posted above to Claude Feble, it's their latest model, to see what it reckons. So it suggested using a prompt where you just stick two countries in and you get insights and recommendations.

This prompt seems better to me than the previous one, but i need to see which AI does better research. Grok could be alright because it searches the web plus everything on X. Thing is, every AI prefers certain sites for their sources, and some of them could be crappy regardless of their authority.

Claude Fable gave me this:

You are a football research analyst helping a casual bettor decide between two countries at the 2026 World Cup. I'm betting small amounts for fun and I don't follow either team's players closely, so explain things simply.

Countries: [Country A] and [Country B]

Before answering, search the web for the latest on both: current squad and any injuries or suspensions, recent results (last 5-6 matches including qualifiers and friendlies), their World Cup group and remaining fixtures, and what their likely knockout path looks like. Then give me:

1. Snapshot of each country: how strong they actually are right now, their best players, and whether they're in form or struggling.

2. Tournament situation: how hard their group is, their likely route through the knockouts, and any scheduling or venue factors (travel, heat, altitude) that help or hurt them.

3. Head-to-head as picks: which of the two is the safer back, which has more upside, and where the public hype doesn't match reality for either.

4. Recommendations: for each country, which bets make sense for a casual punter (e.g. to win their group, reach the quarter-finals or semis, win the tournament, or just their next match) and which to avoid. If neither country is worth backing at all, say so.

5. Honesty section: what you're uncertain about, what information might be missing or outdated, and the most likely way each pick goes wrong.

Don't invent statistics or quote live betting odds. Finish with a one-line verdict: if I'm only backing one of these two countries, which one and on what market, with your confidence level (low/medium/high).

 

[Guntis]

The problem with this though is that most models have data up to a certain point in time, meaning they are not up to present day. So certainly local LLM's it will be a no go. For instance the 70b parameter version of DeepSeek I run on my M3 Ultra Studio is up to middle of 2023.

Plus you also have to factor in the climate etc etc. I think it would not improve your odds of winning personally.

This is what i got from DeepSeek with live search. It's an actual bet recommendation using the prompt i posted above, plus it also explained nuances like climate, as you said, and other stuff. It seems alright, but I'll try to improve Claude's prompt further. It would be nice to get a prompt for accumulators with 2-3 bets like this:

 

[Webzcas]

This has got me thinking, as I have RAG setup and enabled on my Studio - I could feed in the team's last years worth of results and then see what it comes up with.

Interesting project!

 

[Guntis]

Ok, so this is what i got for placing accumulator bets. With this prompt, you can paste the matches you like with their odds, and the AI does the research and builds the slip.

-----------------

Accumulators actually suit your "few quid for fun" approach better than most bets. Small stake, big potential payout, several games to care about. One honest warning first though: each leg you add multiplies the bookmaker's margin, so accas are mathematically the worst value bets there are. They're the lottery ticket of football betting. Fine for fun, just know that's the deal.

Accumulator Prompt: You are a football research analyst helping a casual bettor build a small accumulator (2-3 selections) for the 2026 World Cup. I'm betting a few pounds for fun and don't follow the teams closely.

Here are the matches I'm considering, with current odds from my bookmaker:

[paste matches and odds]

Before answering, search the web for the latest on every match listed: confirmed or expected line-ups, injuries and suspensions, recent form, and each team's group situation (must-win, already safe, likely to rotate). Then give me:

1. Quick read on each match: the most likely outcome, how confident that read is, and any trap I might not see (rotation, nothing to play for, tricky opponent in better form than their name suggests).

2. Leg selection: pick the 2-3 selections that combine decent confidence with odds that make the acca worthwhile. Avoid stacking three heavy favourites at 1.2 each, the payout won't justify the risk. You can use match results, over/under goals or both teams to score.

3. The slip: list the chosen legs, multiply the odds together for the combined price, and state what €5 would return.

4. Weakest link: which leg is most likely to sink the acca and why.

5. Honesty section: what you're uncertain about and what late news (line-ups, weather) I should check before placing it.

Don't invent statistics. If fewer than 2 matches offer a confident read, say so and recommend skipping the acca this round. Finish with a one-line verdict: the slip you'd place, or "skip today", with overall confidence (low/medium/high).

------------------

Two tips for using it. Paste the odds as text rather than relying on the AI reading an image, since odds change and you want it working with what's actually on your screen when you bet. Also resist the urge to add a fourth or fifth leg because the payout looks tempting. Each leg roughly doubles your chance of losing the lot, and 2-3 legs is the sweet spot between fun and throwing money away.

 

[Guntis]

The problem with this though is that most models have data up to a certain point in time, meaning they are not up to present day. So certainly local LLM's it will be a no go. For instance the 70b parameter version of DeepSeek I run on my M3 Ultra Studio is up to middle of 2023.

Plus you also have to factor in the climate etc etc. I think it would not improve your odds of winning personally.

Have you tried adding a search option to it so it gives you up to date info? There are Brave browser and Google APIs for about $5 a month per 1,000 queries. The Brave API seems more used for desktop LLMs than Google.

 

[Webzcas]

Mexico with the first goal of the World Cup!

 

[Guntis]

Mexico seems strong, but it was expected. To me they're usually slightly behind Argentina and Brazil.

 

[Webzcas]

@Guntis have you entered the CM World Cup Sweepstake? If not worth doing so. I will be making the draw tomorrow. Still 10 places left World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Competition 2000EUR - Casinomeister Forum

 

[Guntis]

@Guntis have you entered the CM World Cup Sweepstake? If not worth doing so. I will be making the draw tomorrow. Still 10 places left World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Competition 2000EUR - Casinomeister Forum

Just finished watching the footie outside. Will check the rules now. Thanks for invitation!

 

[sufferinsilence]

Well, I won 2 bets without AI. Just regular good old I.