Three of Uruguay, Belgium, France or Brazil must go out before the final.

This means a high chance the winner is in that half of the draw. It also means it's highly likely that a new name could be playing in the final, assuming England have their usual tale of woe to tell.
This will be either:
A last minute winning open goal chance missed by that MGM, Spellcheck or some other inept. We then go to lose in extra time, or by penalties.
OR
A last minute defensive blunder/penalty giveaway or deflection from a hapless defender puts them out. This will happen either within 3 minutes of full time or end of extra time.
OR
Being ahead and conceding two late goals and going out. Remember an England clean sheet is like a +5 on Bonanza.