Variance Discussion (Split from "New Game at 3Dice" Thread)

That is absolutely spot on! :thumbsup:

Look what happened to me playing a Ladbrokes promo this week:-

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No free-spins in 190 goes when they should hit once every 167 pulls - it must be rigged! :mad:

And the day before:-

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FOUR lots of free spins in my first 111 goes when they are only supposed to hit ONCE in 167 spins - it must be rigged! :mad:

KK


Thanks for posting opposite ends of the spectrum examples here. I'm just about fed up with the attitude of people who have a bad session and are completely convinced (not by logic, but by their own selective memories) that casino 'x' is rigged.

Today's posts include mention of new games from more than one software provider, yet the vast majority of posts today have nothing to do with discussing the gameplay, features, and artwork on those new games.

Has anyone downloaded the upgrade from InterCasino to try Superman (along with four other new slots, three types of Sic-Bo, Double Double Bonus VP, and Perfect Pairs Blackjack)?

Has anyone played Coral Clams at 3 Dice (other than the people that were responsible for Simmo needing to split off the off-topic posts into yet another variance-related topic)?

Let's get some screen shots of the new games and a healthy discussion of features and rules from them. Is 'Clams' worth it for me to open an account at 3Dice? Is Superman (or Braveheart or Forrest Gump) worth the attention of players that may be on the fence about playing at InterCasino?

Let's get something a little more positive and constructive going here.
 
Variance. Its a word that experienced slot players bandy about a lot, but one that many players may not have heard, or dont understand. Loosly speaking, variance is a gambling term for risk. Its not quite as straight forward as that, as that might simply imply one games house-edge was significantly lower or higher than another, when in fact a high variance slot can have better odds of winning than a low variance slot, or indeed vice versa. And variance doesnt just apply to slots - it can be applied to any game: video poker, even variations of Blackjack have different variances.
Essentially, variance is a term that is used to describe a combination of things: the chances of winning big, the streaks within a game and the impact they are likely to have on a players bankroll. There are 3 categories of variance: low, medium and high, although you could add low/medium and medium/high if you want to start getting intricate. Lets explain the 3 levels and how they might suit you as a player:

Low Variance

A low variance game will typically pay out reasonable wins fairly often. Youll rarely get a major win, but you will find that a bankroll lasts longer. A low-variance player will generally be looking for a smaller profit from his/her session, but will be expecting a longer period of entertainment. Low Variance Slot Reviews

High Variance

High variance games generally require a larger bankroll to sustain a session for entertainment, but can yield higher payouts on an infrequent basis, along with irregular small and medium wins during the passage of play. A high variance player will be looking for one or two big wins before cashing out which could happen very quickly, or not at all! High Variance Slot Reviews

Determining Variance

Typically, a high variance game can be identified using the paytable: in slots terms, high payouts for the 4/5 of a kinds and almost negligible payouts for the 2/3 of a kind. A free spins bonus with 15+ spins and 3x or more multiplier also starts to push towards that territory, although the number of lines come into play. A 9-line slot with those figures is likely to be medium, or medium/high variance. Look at these Isis shots,a Microgaming slot available at [King Neptunes] (USA), for a good example of a high variance paytable:





Youll see that 5 scatters pays out 600x the total bet, which is huge, while 5 wilds pays 10,000 coins and the free spins give 20, 25 or 30 spins at a whopping 6x! Thats much more than many other slots, but when you look at the payouts for the smaller symbols, although some of the 5-of-a-kinds are good sized payouts, there is a huge gap between those and 4 of a kind and the payouts for 9,10,J,Q,K and A are pretty low all-round. That gap, along with the free spins number/multiplier is a sure indication of a high variance slot.

A Quick Word On Video Poker

Variance isnt just confined to slots, it can crop up in variations on pretty much any game. Slots aside, the other notable game where variance plays a big roll is Video Poker. Wild Card and Bonus video poker games tend to have a higher variance than your standard Jacks Or Better style game. This is more easily spotted by some bigger payouts at the top end of the paytable, and an 8/5 (Full House/Flush) or worse return at the bottom. In fact if you see the game pays less that 45 coins (when betting 5 coins per hand) for a Full House, and/or less than 30 coins for a Flush, you know that the variance is higher than normal. Most higher variance Video Poker games will also pay the same for two pairs as a pair of Jacks (or better). To counter this youll see some of them have a higher expected return, but youll need a bigger bankroll to achieve that. Video Poker Expected Return Charts.

Conclusion

If you are low roller looking for entertainment, nice if you can make a small profit from time to time, then go low variance. If you have some reasonable cash to burn, are happy to risk some time playing against the possibility of something decent, then go medium variance. If you like a risk, have a good bankroll behind you and aim highwell it should be obvious! And good luck. I tend to sit between medium and high variance myself. I like the adrenaline rushes!
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Been trying to wrap my head around this...I told you guys a lot of of just don't "get it"... :rolleyes:

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The player also has his own kind of variance he can use against the casino.
In the example on the 600 reasons thread, there is absolutely no player variance. Every spin is the same value, the same amount of lines, and the same game. The net result appears to be the same outcome.

I am sure some players convince themselves there is some kind of chaos theory that goes on when playing slots. In that at some point an RNG must deliver an expected outcome over any given session.

Chasing bonus rounds and the so called big ones is never a good idea, anytime I have had a big hit it has usually been within the first 50 spins. For my money playing 12 different slots for 50 spins each is better than ploughing the bankroll into 1 slot for 600 spins. Varying the play, mixing things up a bit, and usually, sooner or later the variance can go your way.

One final comment I would make is that if a new poster comes on and posts about a bad result and says something is rigged, then it is generally dismissed and advice is summarily given on variance. However if you are a more senior member of this forum then you get a lot more followers to back the theory that games are rigged. One reason for this phenomenon is perhaps people feel safe clinging onto a fellow senior members theory, in the hope it explains their own losses and a pity party can gather momentum.

Mike
 

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