This may be a little heady for this site... I don't know... time'll tell.
But it is something that I have wanted to see discussed and hashed out for quite a long time.
At a broad (almost vacuously so) existential level... you could say that everything one does in life is a gamble of some sort.
You could literally re-format your world view to that central idea: If I drive to work, I am betting that the cost of the time, gas, use of the car, loss of other possibilities etc etc will win back a certain result that shall have been worth more than I put into it. If I bring home flowers for the wife, I am betting that the result will be better than what would have been if I had saved the time and money. If I pay 1000 bucks on a million dollar life insurance policy, basically, the insurer is saying "I betcha a thousand to one that even if you DO find a way to die, I can find a way to not pay your estate".
...See...?
And so the question becomes: What kinds of gambles are the most preferable...? Sure, I know.... the ones that win, the ones that pay well, the ones with low risk....etc.
..........but: I am thinking more along the lines of the aesthetic quality of the suspense here. An absolutely sure bet isn't too exciting... it's no bet at all really: You've found an opportunity and chose to exercise it... so it is a nice find but not a gamble. Too: Losing a bet to someone that you really like is much less disagreeable than losing a bet to someone you despise. An instantly resolved bet, like flipping a coin, has no time to be relished and enjoyed: Like a cheap screw, it is over before it has even got going.
I have a long running bet. It is among my favorite. It was wagered in 1969, when I was 16. I was with two also 16 year old friends, and we were getting high, watching the sunset from the eastern edge of one of the Great Lakes. One of those 'magic moments'. We got a little silly and philosophical at the same time.. wondering what the future would be like... how long we would know each other... One of the girls started humming... then singing (lightly) the Beatles tune "When I'm 64". then we wandered into a discussion about the ephemeral nature of human relationships and... to make a long story short, I bet them that we would meet up there at that same spot again, when we we're 64 (on July 4th, at 7PM), and if we did, I would bring the smoke.
Shortly after that, a year or two, the two girls, who had been best friends, had a spat, and presently we all three drifted apart. Haven't heard from either of them in decades. But I have had this 'bet' to savor for all these years, and a date to keep that is now not very off in the future. And if they do not show, I shall relish the moment just the same.
But if they do.....!
But it is something that I have wanted to see discussed and hashed out for quite a long time.
At a broad (almost vacuously so) existential level... you could say that everything one does in life is a gamble of some sort.
You could literally re-format your world view to that central idea: If I drive to work, I am betting that the cost of the time, gas, use of the car, loss of other possibilities etc etc will win back a certain result that shall have been worth more than I put into it. If I bring home flowers for the wife, I am betting that the result will be better than what would have been if I had saved the time and money. If I pay 1000 bucks on a million dollar life insurance policy, basically, the insurer is saying "I betcha a thousand to one that even if you DO find a way to die, I can find a way to not pay your estate".
...See...?
And so the question becomes: What kinds of gambles are the most preferable...? Sure, I know.... the ones that win, the ones that pay well, the ones with low risk....etc.
..........but: I am thinking more along the lines of the aesthetic quality of the suspense here. An absolutely sure bet isn't too exciting... it's no bet at all really: You've found an opportunity and chose to exercise it... so it is a nice find but not a gamble. Too: Losing a bet to someone that you really like is much less disagreeable than losing a bet to someone you despise. An instantly resolved bet, like flipping a coin, has no time to be relished and enjoyed: Like a cheap screw, it is over before it has even got going.
I have a long running bet. It is among my favorite. It was wagered in 1969, when I was 16. I was with two also 16 year old friends, and we were getting high, watching the sunset from the eastern edge of one of the Great Lakes. One of those 'magic moments'. We got a little silly and philosophical at the same time.. wondering what the future would be like... how long we would know each other... One of the girls started humming... then singing (lightly) the Beatles tune "When I'm 64". then we wandered into a discussion about the ephemeral nature of human relationships and... to make a long story short, I bet them that we would meet up there at that same spot again, when we we're 64 (on July 4th, at 7PM), and if we did, I would bring the smoke.
Shortly after that, a year or two, the two girls, who had been best friends, had a spat, and presently we all three drifted apart. Haven't heard from either of them in decades. But I have had this 'bet' to savor for all these years, and a date to keep that is now not very off in the future. And if they do not show, I shall relish the moment just the same.But if they do.....!
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