Rusty
Banned User - repetitive flaming
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2006
- Location
- Manchester UK
This is a continuation from the ChuChu titan threa but I did not want to derail that so I have opened a new thread.
I think this may help people better understand how slots work and if they are getting a fair game.
The actual combinations on real series slots are many millions.
Even a slot with 30 symbols flat on each reel will have over 24 million combinations.
But this is tempered greatly by the fact that players play more than 1 line and that winning combinations are repeated many times within this figure.
So assume a player plays 10 lines and not 1 - now we cycle through total combinations in 2.4 million spins not 24 million.
Consider then that the bulk of the combinations from these spins is made up from repeating symbol combos* that give small returns of 2 and 3 of a kind which barely return your bet (I would guestimate that the most common win combination would be repeated a few hundred thousand times and we see the figure is not so daunting when considering variance and RTP.
So I would expect samples of 220K to be very close to the average RTP of the reel series slots played. (add on 1.5% for RJ)
Of course you would take out any outliers from the data to give a truer picture.
Consider that a player plays 250K spins flat betting $1 playing 20 lines.
They would actually have played through the equivalent of 5 million spins playing a single line.
Assume the 91% return and they would lose $22,500.
Now as they have played 5c a line lets throw in a theoretical jackpot win of 5000 times bet into the data and see what happens.
5000*0.05c = $250 how does that affect our RTP?
Well now our RTP has gone up from 91% to erm 91.1%
It didn't even move the needle!
So let's say they get lucky and hit 10 jackpots in 10 spins
so an extra $2,500 returned!
What happens after this impossible run of luck?
We push our RTP up to 92%
So you can see the above clearly demonstrates that a Casinos protestations that you were unlucky and such numbers are too small for clear picture are bunk.
*Explanation (this assumes no wilds)
say a slot has a symbol repeated 5 times on each reel, to know how many times 3 of a kind of this symbol will occur in a complete cycle of spins (this how we back engineer variance and theoretical RTP) we need to work out our combinations for 3 of a kind of this symbol which are;
5/30, 5/30, 5/30, 25/30, 30/30 = 93,750 instances in 24,300,000
The reason the 4th number is 25/30 is because we are excluding 4 of a kind so we take all the combos where the 4th reel is not our symbol.
The 5th reel 30/30 because any symbol is valid once we know the 4th reel breaks our sequence.
If I have made any mistakes in the above which is always possible in posts such as this then apologies and please correct.
I think this may help people better understand how slots work and if they are getting a fair game.
The portion of RTP represented by RJ is about 1.5% according to Dogboy.
So, a slot with a RJ attached will pay out 1.5% less in reel/bonus wins than one without a RJ.
224k spins is a big number, but the actual combinations possible on the slots would have to be known - it may be in the millions so the 224k might only represent a fraction of the 'cycle'. Of course, playing different slots complicates things even more. However, Chu is right in saying that player should be closer to the RTP than someone with half that number of spins.
Takethemoney is also right when they say that different players will experience different RTPs over the same number of spins......and here comes that variance thing again lol.
As I said, its not just the RTP that one should consider when choosing a slot - in fact, its not the most important at all.
Chu - hopefully some will learn about how to present an argument without sounding like a lunatic from that thread, but I wouldnt hold your breath.
The actual combinations on real series slots are many millions.
Even a slot with 30 symbols flat on each reel will have over 24 million combinations.
But this is tempered greatly by the fact that players play more than 1 line and that winning combinations are repeated many times within this figure.
So assume a player plays 10 lines and not 1 - now we cycle through total combinations in 2.4 million spins not 24 million.
Consider then that the bulk of the combinations from these spins is made up from repeating symbol combos* that give small returns of 2 and 3 of a kind which barely return your bet (I would guestimate that the most common win combination would be repeated a few hundred thousand times and we see the figure is not so daunting when considering variance and RTP.
So I would expect samples of 220K to be very close to the average RTP of the reel series slots played. (add on 1.5% for RJ)
Of course you would take out any outliers from the data to give a truer picture.
Consider that a player plays 250K spins flat betting $1 playing 20 lines.
They would actually have played through the equivalent of 5 million spins playing a single line.
Assume the 91% return and they would lose $22,500.
Now as they have played 5c a line lets throw in a theoretical jackpot win of 5000 times bet into the data and see what happens.
5000*0.05c = $250 how does that affect our RTP?
Well now our RTP has gone up from 91% to erm 91.1%
It didn't even move the needle!
So let's say they get lucky and hit 10 jackpots in 10 spins
so an extra $2,500 returned!
What happens after this impossible run of luck?
We push our RTP up to 92%
So you can see the above clearly demonstrates that a Casinos protestations that you were unlucky and such numbers are too small for clear picture are bunk.
*Explanation (this assumes no wilds)
say a slot has a symbol repeated 5 times on each reel, to know how many times 3 of a kind of this symbol will occur in a complete cycle of spins (this how we back engineer variance and theoretical RTP) we need to work out our combinations for 3 of a kind of this symbol which are;
5/30, 5/30, 5/30, 25/30, 30/30 = 93,750 instances in 24,300,000
The reason the 4th number is 25/30 is because we are excluding 4 of a kind so we take all the combos where the 4th reel is not our symbol.
The 5th reel 30/30 because any symbol is valid once we know the 4th reel breaks our sequence.
If I have made any mistakes in the above which is always possible in posts such as this then apologies and please correct.
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