Online Video Poker (maybe)

4 of a kind

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So if you are dealt, and hold, a 3 of a kind, then your draw returns at least a 3 of a kind?

I can't see how anything else in that case could happen. I never played their but had friends that visited tell me how much it actually sucks. Also apparently at times if after you draw a blank hand, a mystical magic wand appears and gives you some kind of a win.

The more research I'm doing on this subject the more ridicules it's sounding.

If anything I guess it just goes to prove that any type of bullshit programing is achievable impersonating the real deal. The main point being that as long as it's regulated in a serious jurisdiction, at least the player could find out exactly what type of game their being dealt, regardless how ridicules it is. I would doubt you find any serious video poker players there with lottery outcomes.
 
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Gremmyboy

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What an excellent thread!:thumbsup:

Great read!:D

Cheers
Gremmy


(Does Dogboy still post? If so does he develop the video poker for RTG's software or only slots? Would be interesting to hear how it's done over at RTG!)
 

4 of a kind

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I heard from Inetbet who didn’t confirm their video poker machine was a class 111, but suspects it is.

Personally, after researching this I don’t believe I played online against any class 11 programs. It would have to be so obvious and would have been well known by now, and more then likely picked up on after the first day it was launched. This doesn't dismiss the chances of programmers in unregulated markets having the ability to tweak their software regardless what program is being used.

At the least this thread should warn players how ridicules playing VLT’s at racinos are (at least in NY), and to point out why it is important for players to understand what type of programs are being used against them.

If you can’t find out exactly what type of game you’re up against, you could end up playing against a class 11 machine dressed up like a class 111 machine.

Research is an important part of gambling especially with new casinos (or wanna be casinos like racinos) popping up all over the place recently. At the least being able to do research with confirmed fact the players chances improve vastly of getting a better game and a bigger bang for your buck by choosing the better place to play at.
 
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Simmo!

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A bit more info I stumbled on fwiw:

John Robison said:
In Nevada, an EGD (Electronic Gaming Device) that represents a physical object is supposed to follow the same rules and have the same physics as the physical object. This rule means that video poker machines must deal from fair decks. Unless the rules have changed, I don't think a Class II video poker machine would be allowed in Nevada.
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bb28

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I heard from Inetbet who didn’t confirm their video poker machine was a class 111, but suspects it is.

Personally, after researching this I don’t believe I played online against any class 11 programs. It would have to be so obvious and would have been well known by now, and more then likely picked up on after the first day it was launched. This doesn't dismiss the chances of programmers in unregulated markets having the ability to tweak their software regardless what program is being used.

At the least this thread should warn players how ridicules playing VLT’s at racinos are (at least in NY), and to point out why it is important for players to understand what type of programs are being used against them.

If you can’t find out exactly what type of game you’re up against, you could end up playing against a class 11 machine dressed up like a class 111 machine.

Research is an important part of gambling especially with new casinos (or wanna be casinos like racinos) popping up all over the place recently. At the least being able to do research with confirmed fact the players chances improve vastly of getting a better game and a bigger bang for your buck by choosing the better place to play at.

With the posts from you guys talking about the different classes of machines, I did a little reading up on it around the web. I'm not saying I have a good grasp on it but it is interesting and I've particularly found it interesting in how it relates to the nearest B&M in my area, which is Harrah's Cherokee Casino which is owned by the Cherokee Indians of North Carolina and managed by Harrah's. NC has some funky laws on the books regarding gambling and there were a lot of stipulations about the casino when it first opened 20+ years ago. Some of those stipulations have been relaxed but yet some have not as they do not have any live dealer games. Everything must be done from a video screen. Also it should be noted that because it's a Indian Casino they do not have to publish RTP. I can't find any official word to back me up but I am pretty sure that they only have class 11 machines. Rip off........or not?

Hope my bringing up Harrah's Cherokee isn't too off topic for this discussion.
 

binary128

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A bit more info I stumbled on fwiw:

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Simmo,

I continued to be confused by how these Class II, Video Lottery Terminal, Draw Poker machines would actually work. I kept thinking that if the Draw hand has already been dealt when I clicked Deal (or even before I clicked Deal), then I should be able to, for example, throw away 3 of a Kind on the Deal hand and still get back 3 of a Kind from the Draw hand.

Your source link to the Casino City Times article by John Robison, specifically the second customer email from Jim that Mr. Robison references, answered my questions. So, thanks for that.

The Theoretical Maximum RTP for any Class III Video Poker machine is defined by 2 things:

1. The Pay Table. The Wizard of Odds has a
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that can determine the Theoretical Maximum RTP for a wide variety of Video Poker games.

2. Optimal Strategy. In examples I've used in my previous posts, Optimal Strategy would have been to hold the Ace and Queen, or to hold the 3 of a Kind. (The Wizard's Video Poker Analyzer is also based on the requirement of Optimal Strategy.)

I thus conclude that, for these types of Class II machines, in which Optimal Strategy is just ignored, the Pay Table does nothing more than tell you what you win for each winning combination. Your chances of getting any of these winning combinations apparently has nothing to do with any decisions you make concerning your Deal hand.

The bottom line: There is no Theoretical Maximum RTP involved here. There is just the Reported, or Actual, RTP, and that I gather is set by the game designer and approved by whoever regulates these things.

Well, where's the fun in that? As I've said elsewhere, I like playing Jacks or Better and Deuces Wild Video Pokers. If I want to play an RTP game rather than an RNG game, I'll go play the Lucky Lanterns slot.


Simmo, BTW, I also followed your link to the "Video Poker Expected Returns Chart".

In another thread I "shredded" an article by Online Casino Reports, referring to it as pablum. This "Video Poker Expected Returns Chart" is good. It contains valuable data.

Did you write this? Again, it's good stuff. It took work to assemble all of this.

I noticed at the head of the article the disclaimer "... The video poker odds listed below were correct going into 2009 ..." So, it's going on three years old. As such, it may not be worth editing.

But, for what it's worth, here are a few observations:

1.) There is frequent use of the word "odds" when what is presented are "Returns". For example, the odds of getting a 3 of a Kind, at about 1 in 15, are pretty constant across platforms. (The probability ranges between 0.073 and 0.075, and varies based on slight differences in Optimal Strategy specific to the Pay Table.) The only variable is what that winning combination returns - typically 3 for 1.

2.) Perhaps point out that the table data you reference assumes the use of maximum coins. (You rightly highlight that "... the odds displayed assume the correct strategy is applied.")

3.) You rightly highlight below the table of data "the golden rule of video poker. Always play maximum coins!" To really bring this home, you might perhaps present the Theoretical Maximum RTP difference between, say, 4 coins and 5 coins. For example, on a full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better game, the 4-coins wager has a Theoretical Maximum RTP of 98.37, while the 5-coins wager has a Theoretical Maximum RTP of 99.54%. That's a pretty big difference, and in my opinion deserves highlighting.

But again, a good link, really good stuff there. (Except, of course, for the fact that Galewind is not included in the data.)

Chris
 
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4 of a kind

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I've particularly found it interesting in how it relates to the nearest B&M in my area, which is Harrah's Cherokee Casino which is owned by the Cherokee Indians of North Carolina and managed by Harrah's.

I also read somewhere between all of my research that many of the Indian owned casinos use VLT's, and like you said usually are the ones that don't for some reason have to report RTP's. I also recall reading that the fees are a bigger expense for the operators that use class 11 machines. Probably because their guaranteed to profit more. This is why you must know what you're getting into.

I'm convinced playing video poker against a VLT would have to be obvious, but not sure how obvious it would be if you were just playing regular slot games.
 

binary128

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4 of a Kind,

I heard from Inetbet who didn’t confirm their video poker machine was a class 111, but suspects it is.

I apologize for being dense here, but are you saying that the person with whom you communicated at InetBet did not confirm InetBet's Video Poker Class type, but that this person suspects that they are Class III?

Chris
 

binary128

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... I've particularly found it interesting in how it relates to the nearest B&M in my area, which is Harrah's Cherokee Casino which is owned by the Cherokee Indians of North Carolina and managed by Harrah's. ... Also it should be noted that because it's a Indian Casino they do not have to publish RTP. I can't find any official word to back me up but I am pretty sure that they only have class 11 machines. Rip off........or not?

Based on my current understanding on how all of this works, I don't think there is anything intrinsically wrong with playing a Class II VP game.

They're RTP games rather than RNG games, so they don't offer the game play that someone used to a Class III machine expects.

But if their RTP is set for 98% then, although a rip-off for a Class III VP player expecting 99.54%, they would be a welcome alternative for a Slot player who is used to seeing 93%.

So, I'd lump them in with the Slots as far as the "rip off or not" question is concerned. Since they don't publish any RTPs, you're left to wonder about all of them to an equal extent.

Chris
 

4 of a kind

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4 of a Kind,



I apologize for being dense here, but are you saying that the person with whom you communicated at InetBet did not confirm InetBet's Video Poker Class type, but that this person suspects that they are Class III?

Chris

Yes, but this was a rep who obviously didn't question their technical department. Just for the record I sent this question to 12 different reps directing them to the article and requested a response. I heard from binary128 and jstrike technically, and only Inetbet on an assumption.
 

SlotMonster

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I will also post a reply soon, sorry for delay, just came at work :)
 

4 of a kind

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Based on my current understanding on how all of this works, I don't think there is anything intrinsically wrong with playing a Class II VP game.

They're RTP games rather than RNG games, so they don't offer the game play that someone used to a Class III machine expects.

But if their RTP is set for 98% then, although a rip-off for a Class III VP player expecting 99.54%, they would be a welcome alternative for a Slot player who is used to seeing 93%.

So, I'd lump them in with the Slots as far as the "rip off or not" question is concerned. Since they don't publish any RTPs, you're left to wonder about all of them to an equal extent.

Chris

Being based on my personal play after a decade and outcomes suddenly falling off a cliff for two years straight I was convinced video poker was RTP based and had been adjusted. Since I couldn't get confirmation by confirmed fact on how the game was being offered I quit playing online assuming my RTP assumptions are correct.

If I knew for fact I was playing against a random 52/53 card deck draw, I would take my lumps and accept the fact that I might hold the record for the worst run of luck against a random video poker game. The losses for this two year period made my previous losses look like petty cash.

Yet, after doing research on the possibility of a class 11 RTP game, I still find it hard to believe that any video poker expert would not notice immediately after being use to a 99% return on a class 111 machine. Of course I could have been playing a class 11 game all along and maybe it was set at the proper expected RTP return, never being able to know the difference.

I can't confirm and or prove anything one way or the other, so therefore went with my gut feeling and ran for the hills. If I knew for confirmed fact I was always playing a class 111 machine, I would no doubt continue playing this game online.

One last question since you are a technician: Even if the game was a class 111 video poker machine, and since online is not regulated with the programming being checked, confirmed, and sealed by regulators before it's put on the market, is it possible for a programmer to tweak the RNG altering the outcomes of even a class 111 game? I'm not saying it's being done, just want to know if technically it could be done?
 

Nifty29

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Yes, but this was a rep who obviously didn't question their technical department. Just for the record I sent this question to 12 different reps directing them to the article and requested a response. I heard from binary128 and jstrike technically, and only Inetbet on an assumption.

iNetbet wouldn't necessarily know how the games they use under licence are coded surely?

I would think this is a question for RTG and not the individual operators.....unless you already know that and you are going to make something of the fact that all the operators you emailed either "don't know" or don't reply.....I hope this isn't the case.
 

4 of a kind

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iNetbet wouldn't necessarily know how the games they use under licence are coded surely?

I would think this is a question for RTG and not the individual operators.....unless you already know that and you are going to make something of the fact that all the operators you emailed either "don't know" or don't reply.....I hope this isn't the case.


This is an adult conversation. Please find another thread to toss your rhetoric around in.

Since their is no way to communicate with RTG, I've asked the reps to contact their tech. department. Please read the whole thread before you try to derail it.
 

DiamondGeezer

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4OAK you could try and contact Michael Shackleford at the Wizard of Odds as he was a consultant to RTG. He could definitely answer your question.

I do think you have highlighted a profound problem with online gaming in that it's impossible to get answers to technical issues through the operator/regulator/software company channels. Yes two guys have made an amazing contribution here but I am really referring to MG, Playtech, Crypto and RTG among others. There is a profound information gap in this industry. I don't blame the casinos themselves so much as the regulators and the software companies (Gale Wind and JStrike honourably excepted :)). This is just the sort of question Alderney, Gibralter, eGogra and all the other testers and regulators should be able to answer easily. And if you have had losses but can't get the information you need it must be incredibly frustrating.

I am sorry about these losses 4OAK. If you wanted to open a new thread and post up hand amounts and loss it would be quite easy to look into the stats of it all. For instance there is a 1 in 8 chance of going over 100000 hands without a Royal. VP certainly can be a real devil at times. Especially if you are playing Joker variants which have considerably higher variance.
 

DiamondGeezer

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This is an adult conversation. Please find another thread to toss your rhetoric around in.

Since their is no way to communicate with RTG, I've asked the reps to contact their tech. department. Please read the whole thread before you try to derail it.

Bit harsh 4OAK! I do think Nifty was making a fair point, infact Simmo said something similar. I don't see how RTG operators can be expected to know since they just license the software. They can't be expected to know the internal workings IMO. RTG itself or Woo is the way to go I think.
 

Mousey

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I also read somewhere between all of my research that many of the Indian owned casinos use VLT's, and like you said usually are the ones that don't for some reason have to report RTP's. I also recall reading that the fees are a bigger expense for the operators that use class 11 machines. Probably because their guaranteed to profit more. This is why you must know what you're getting into.

I'm convinced playing video poker against a VLT would have to be obvious, but not sure how obvious it would be if you were just playing regular slot games.

Obvious, as in seeing a reel move to a winning combination after they've stopped. That, of course, is if your machine has been drawn as a winner in the central database.

Note: I wouldn't touch class2 games with a 10 foot bargepole. Same for the bingo based machines we had/have here in my state. They aren't fair, IMO.
 

iNetBet Promos

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Hi all,
Just so you know here is the information I sent to 4 of a kind when they asked via PM about the VP machines.
(I made a few small grammatical adjustments so that it reads better :) )


"I believe the VP machines are of the same type as first mentioned in the article you asked about.
The way we determine the expected return of the VP games is using the pay table. There is no % setting as per the second case mention. A good site you can check for how % payouts are calculated in this way is "Wizards of Odds".

Please bear in mind that the % you can calculate is only the expected return. In the short run this will vary plus or minus either way. The outcome would also be affected by the players choices. However in the long run, with perfect strategy, over the course of millions an millions of hands those are the returns you can expect.

This is one of the reasons why we cannot offer bonuses on our VP tables. If these were given then pretty much all of our VP play would be positive expectation (for the player).

I hope this information is of some help"



The reason I started the reply with "I believe" is because, as nifty and diamondgeezer state, I do not know all the technical in's and outs of the software. So how things are explained in the article may not be, to the letter, how thing's work with RTG. So I couldn't reply with a categorical "yes".

However as stated I do know that the games do not have a % setting that can be adjusted. There is just an expected return for each game based on what the paytable is set to. Depending on the paytable and relevant probabilities of hitting each of the payouts this will change the expected return of a game.

Take for example the game Aces & Eights: Our Paytable for this game is set to High. This gives an expected return on this game of 99.78% on max bet. If the paytable was changed to low (reducing the payout of 4 OAK Other and Full House) then the expected return would reduce to 97.72%

I hope this information is of some help

Best Regards
iNetBet Promos
 

binary128

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Based on my current understanding on how all of this works, I don't think there is anything intrinsically wrong with playing a Class II VP game.

I would like to amend this statement. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with playing a Class II Video Poker machine as long as the machine is identified as a Class II game.

The trick here; if they don't identify the Class of the machine, then technically they have not lied. That is, they have not told a lie because they didn't say anything.

Which means that you are left to your own devices to discover what Class of game this specific machine is. Maybe the easiest way is to follow the advice of
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. That is, throw away 3 of a Kind (or like that) and see what you get back.

And further, even if you discover that it is a Class II machine, there is still nothing wrong with that as long as the fixed RTP is in the 98.5 to 99% range.

Yes, the fact that my Draw decisions are essentially being ignored would cause me to ask myself "Why am I even playing this game?"

But if the RTP is 99%, well, there is nothing wrong there.

However, given the data that has been presented in this thread, where the machines are not identified as Class III or Class II, AND the Theoretical (or Fixed) RTPs are not published, well ..... I'd suspect you're probably getting hosed.

Chris
 

jstrike

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Just wanna point out, the big advantage for a casino to having RTP based games would be that there's less variance (or no variance) for the house. I mean, we're small enough so that when we have the more serious VP players on I'll sit & watch the action and hold my breath til they cash out or go bust. In other words, even though I know the odds are in our favor, we're gambling with our players...and the stakes are always as high as all the money I got in the bank. Every month I do a check on my funds and our maximum payouts to make sure we've got enough to cover the biggest win that could happen on the system, and if we don't have enough I lower the stakes. I took out $1 VP for that reason, now the biggest bet's $6.25 on a 5-hand 25¢ game...with an 8-5 pay structure. With a class II type slot, we could predict what we'd make this year... but with a real game, a few more royal flushes than probability says will happen would put us out of business. 5-hand VP is actually our highest possible payout because we let you double down up to 3x by calling the next 3 card colors, without reshuffling the deck, which gives way more than 100% expected RTP (and is surprisingly easy to predict). We've won so far by banking on greed, but we've been taken for some pretty large sums by savvy players. If we get in a danger zone where we can't cover, we'll just shut down the game...I've said that since we opened. But what I'm driving at is, as an owner I can see how much better I'd sleep at night if I knew every deal was predetermined to come out to the same payback, no matter how the player reacted. I just don't think that's fair, or fun, or honest or right, and I'd rather go back to driving a taxi and playing in Vegas for my rent than trying to rip people off that way.

I agree with 4 of a Kind that it'd probably be pretty obvious if a casino was running a game that's obviously rigged toward giving out the hands it wanted to give out ahead of time...it'd be hard to disguise that. But just in case, I think it's a casino's responsibility to show just how fair and random their games really are. If the owner of the casino ain't sweating, maybe you're playing in the wrong place.

I'm thinking about putting together a kinda...I don't know, a Player's Bill of Rights, or something like that. Like something casinos could only sign onto if they followed all these rules, and it wouldn't be like a regular certification, it would be something where all of the info has to be shown to everybody, in a format they can use to run their own statistical checks, and not just shown to eCOGRA or somebody where it's buried and smoothed over in the end-of-month statistical paybacks. And the important features aren't randomness or RTP, they're about a hand-by-hand analysis of how things went down, because that's where you can really tell if something's fair or not...a couple hundred hands at a time.
 

binary128

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... One last question since you are a technician: Even if the game was a class 111 video poker machine, and since online is not regulated with the programming being checked, confirmed, and sealed by regulators before it's put on the market, is it possible for a programmer to tweak the RNG altering the outcomes of even a class 111 game? I'm not saying it's being done, just want to know if technically it could be done?

Given that 93% of the known universe is composed of dark matter and dark energy, 2 "things" about which we know nothing ... I'd say that absolutely anything is possible.

(Sorry. I just had to throw that in there.)

I realize that you want me to speak for other software providers, indeed, to speak for the industry in general. I can't do that. I'm clueless there. I can speak about Galewind, which I am both happy and proud to do.

Anyway, your question: Is it possible? Absolutely, no doubt about it, 100% guaranteed, piece of cake, not a problem.

BUT ....

Is it possible to do it and not get caught?

Well, for Galewind, with Certified Fair Gambling (CFG) double/triple/quadruple checking every single card we've dealt, every combination of cards, every odd/even run, every suit streak, for every hand, and every result, every single month ...

I'd say that it is still possible, but really hard.

I made a post in another thread, at the bottom of which I listed:

  1. a 6 month analysis.
  2. a 12 month analysis.
  3. an 18 month analysis.
  4. a 24 month analysis.
So even if CFG misses something using a 1-month sample size (for example, assuming that a 3-sigma result arose from sample variance), they sure as hell are going to pick it up in one of the larger sample tests.

So, still possible, but now it is really really hard.

Your specific question was:

... is it possible for a programmer to tweak the RNG ...

JStrike made a ("more words than you want to read") (Hey, I have a Patent Pending on that.) post in another thread in which he made the following comments:

... the RNG isn't the layer where cheating would take place in a crooked system. Neither is the RTP.

... the really dangerous layer of software is right in the middle, in how the random numbers are used to get to that RTP in the end.

If the RNG is all that a Software provider has certified, and the Reported RTP is all that the Software provider and/or Casino has made available, then this "middle layer manipulation" is a lot more probable.

However, as I've pointed out, Galewind doesn't do that.

Again referring to another thread, the following is the list of database data that Galewind sends to CFG every month as part of the certification for Keno (The createdate values below are specific to the month of August 2011.):

SELECT createdate, playeridno, betamount, gameresult, pickcount, catchcount, random1, random2, random3, random4, random5, random6, random7, random8, random9, random10, random11, random12, random13, random14, random15, random16, random17, random18, random19, random20, pick1, pick2, pick3, pick4, pick5, pick6, pick7, pick8, pick9, pick10 FROM kenogames WHERE createdate BETWEEN 40756 AND 40786.9999999999 ORDER BY createdate ASC

Of the 36 fields of data here, 2 fields are for record tracking, 2 fields are for financial performance, and 32 fields (about 90% of the data) are for statistical analysis. If the statistical analysis of any one of those 32 fields throws up a red flag, we would hear about it, immediately.

(I picked Keno for this example because I thought that it would be easier to understand. I have other, more on target, examples below.)

To be accurate, I would be scared to screw around with this data, and that I think is exactly the way that it should be. CFG is doing their job; they are keeping us on our toes.

However, yet another quote from a previous thread:

I am absolutely, unshakably committed to ensuring that the Player, and the Casino, receive not one penny more, and not one penny less, than what the game's Theoretical (Maximum) RTP provides. Not one penny more, not one penny less.

So, by CFG doing what they do, and to the extent that they do it, they not only protect the Player, but they also protect Galewind, and they protect the Casino.

This isn't bullshit, by the way: I/we really believe in this.


BUT, there is another twist in all of this. The Reported RTPs for games of skill will NOT approach their Theoretical Maximum RTPs. Let me expand on this.

For Slots, Craps, Baccarat, Roulette and Keno, their Reported RTPs will approach their Theoretical RTPs (
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) because there are no decisions involved in game play. There is nothing the Player can do right, and nothing that the Player can do wrong, to affect the Reported RTP.

However, when the Player is required to make decisions during game play, and these decisions affect the outcome, and thus the return, of the game, well ... Players are going to make "wrong" decisions, or they are going to make "hunch" decisions, and like that.

I can give you 2 examples.

For our Stud Poker Game:

  • Theoretical Maximum RTP (Element of Risk) = 98.36%
  • Reported (Actual) RTP (20 million games) = 97.48%
  • Difference = 0.88%

For our Jacks or Better Game:

  • Theoretical Maximum RTP (5 coins) = 99.54%
  • Reported (Actual) RTP (20 million games) = 98.63%
  • Difference = 0.91%

The question: from what do these differences arise?

  • Our Software
  • Player decisions
  • Galewind is cheating
Do I think it is our Software? No. Why?

We have had our RNG gone over, not once or twice but three times, by both iTech Labs and Certified Fair Gambling, each time using a fine-toothed comb. They analyzed the RNG seeding, raw RNG output, our scaling/mapping algorithms, our shuffling algorithms, our actual game output, and on and on. All times, a pass.

Galewind has tested and tested and tested and tested our software. All times, a pass.

Certified Fair Gambling has tested and tested and tested and tested our software. All times, a pass.

Do I think it is Player decisions? Yes. Why? Because I know that Galewind is not cheating.

So, if you have read this far, then once again, dear reader, you have been treated to (or subjected to) one of my (still Patent Pending) "more words than you ever want to read" responses.

However, 4 of a Kind, I don't believe that it is possible for you to have received a more detailed insight into the "behind the curtains" mechanics of an online Casino than what I have posted here.

Whew. I'm tired. It took me a long time to write this. However, 4 of a Kind, you appear to be an intelligent, experienced, knowledgeable Video Poker player who, I am forced to conclude, got hosed with some suspect software.

I once again invite you to give our private Demo a whirl. I can provide complete database records of your game play, in whatever format you wish, and for whatever testing you wish. I'm sure you understand that, given variance, I'm taking a gamble here as well, but I'm confidant enough to go out on that limb.

Chris
 

samoas

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Sep 16, 2003
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Philly born & raised 2 traffic lights away
What an excellent thread!:thumbsup:

Great read!:D

Cheers
Gremmy


(Does Dogboy still post? If so does he develop the video poker for RTG's software or only slots? Would be interesting to hear how it's done over at RTG!)

I am going to agree here! As an avid VP player at B&M Casinos, I have always been skeptical of online VP ever since Microgaming banned US players. I have dabbled but have not had much success. I thank you all for your input and especially 4OAK for generating the topic. This has been enlightening.

Christine
 

DiamondGeezer

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PABaccred
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PABnononaccred2
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May 12, 2007
Location
NOT Pennsylvania!!!
Whew. I'm tired. It took me a long time to write this. However, 4 of a Kind, you appear to be an intelligent, experienced, knowledgeable Video Poker player who, I am forced to conclude, got hosed with some suspect software.


Chris

Great post but a dangerous conclusion in my view. I know you are trying to help him but there is no evidence to suggest this is the case. The chance of a major software being suspect for VP is zero in my opinion.
 

binary128

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May 18, 2009
Location
Vancouver, BC
Just wanna point out, the big advantage for a casino to having RTP based games would be that there's less variance (or no variance) for the house. I mean, we're small enough so that when we have the more serious VP players on I'll sit & watch the action and hold my breath til they cash out or go bust.

JStrike,

I'll respond to another part of your post later. However, I had to laugh at your "... hold my breath ..." comment.

My current deployment has a High Stakes Room, with a $10,000 Ante in Blackjack. With a Split and Doubles, there's the possibility of $40K on the table. Variance fluctuations under those conditions can be huge.

I'm sure many Players think that there is someone "behind the wheel" on the server side, making minute by minute adjustments as the games progress. In reality the server side administration can simply sit there and watch as the variance plays out in whatever way the RNG determines.

In another post I referred to "some real doozies" concerning winning streaks. I don't believe I am disclosing anything proprietary in saying that one of those streaks, in High Stakes Baccarat, lasted for 28 days straight. 28 days straight!

Chris
 

binary128

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Joined
May 18, 2009
Location
Vancouver, BC
Great post but a dangerous conclusion in my view. I know you are trying to help him but there is no evidence to suggest this is the case. The chance of a major software being suspect for VP is zero in my opinion.

DiamondGeezer,

On consideration, I believe that you are substantially correct.

To be accurate, I believe that there is significant evidence to suggest that this is the case. For this I consider the skill and experience gained from playing Video Poker for 10 years, the fact that they included 2 years worth of data in their "problem sample", and, again, the Law of Large numbers.

However, I agree that, without hard data for the 2-year "problem sample", there is not sufficient evidence to prove that this is the case.

I thus retract my conclusion.

Chris
 

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