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One for the Mathematicians

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by davidsmith56, Dec 31, 2015.

    Dec 31, 2015
  1. davidsmith56

    davidsmith56 Senior Member

    Occupation:
    retired civil servant
    Location:
    Kent,United Kingdom
    Ok,this will sound like the most unlikely story ever but I swear on my life that it is true.Just back off a cruise where the ship had an onboard casino which included a three card poker table.On the last night,i hit consecutive straight flushes which is a rarity in itself.However not only did they come in two hands,they came with the SAME cards (jack,queen,king of clubs).Would love to know the odds of that happening but it must be millions to one against.:what:
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. Dec 31, 2015
  3. rockycatt

    rockycatt meistercatt CAG MM

    Occupation:
    carpenter
    Location:
    Boston
    BELIEVE THIS OR NOT I ONCE playing gin rummy in a coffee house got gin on the go as also did the house dealer at the same time same game :confused:
     
  4. Jan 1, 2016
  5. mathsboy1975

    mathsboy1975 Senior Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    software engineer
    Location:
    UK London
    If you look at it that you have a 3 card hand (any 3 cards) and you want to know the probability of getting those same cards dealt to you on the subsequent hand, then it is just equal to

    (3/52) x (2/51) x (1/50) = 1/22100

    which is just the probability of getting dealt any 3 specific cards (in any order). If you wanted to know the chances of getting those 3 cards dealt TWICE in a row it would be that value squared

    = 1/488410000

    For example you start a game and play 2 hands - that value is the probability that you get dealt JQK of clubs in both hands.

    For ANY two successive 3 card straight flushes (not necessarily the SAME straight flush - just 2 consecutive straight flushes) it is a little more complicated. First of all the value of 1/22100 indicates the probability of getting dealt ANY specific hand so that tells you there are a total of 22100 possible distinct 3 card poker hands (ignoring the ORDER dealt in). From this total of 22100, there are 48 possible straight flushes - 12 for each suit according to

    A23,234,345,456,567,678,789,910J,10JQ,JQK,QKA

    Therefore the possibility of getting a straight flush on any hand is just

    48/22100

    which is roughly

    0.00217

    Now to get 2 straight flushes in a row, would mean that we must square this value which is roughly

    0.00000472

    which is roughly

    1/211984

    I am fairly sure that the above is correct but I have had a considerable amount to drink so feel free to shoot it down....
     
    3 people like this.
  6. Jan 1, 2016
  7. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    Can't fault the maths, but the logic is slightly out. The event was 1/22100, simple as. He got the same 3 twice consecutively. That those 3 were a SF is irrelevant. Basically a 1/1 x 1/22100 event.

    If however he predicted those 3 cards in advance (which he didn't) the odds would indeed have been 22100^2
     
    2 people like this.
  8. Jan 1, 2016
  9. mathsboy1975

    mathsboy1975 Senior Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    software engineer
    Location:
    UK London
    Yeah I lost what was being asked halfway through answering but I think I did mention that and then specified the square for any 2 specified hands in a row. Now rereading the original post, I guess that the answer he is looking for might actually be

    (48/22100) x (1/22100)

    as that is the odds of getting dealt ANY straight flush on the first hand, and then exactly the same one on the next hand.

    That is roughly 1 in 10175208
     
    2 people like this.
  10. Jan 1, 2016
  11. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    Congrats to the 2 geeks ^ for working that one out but double congrats to the OP 'cos that's a special win in the only card game I play :) Hopefully you were playing Pair Plus but were you betting Prime too for a small kicker? I know it's a silly bet statistically but it adds to the fun.
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Jan 1, 2016
  13. jjezebel37

    jjezebel37 Meister Member mm1

    Occupation:
    sales/marketing
    Location:
    Belfast (Northern Ireland)
    Need to get some of these guys on Countdown ;)
     
  14. Jan 1, 2016
  15. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    Yes, I'd like to have a few games with Rachel Riley......:D
     
    3 people like this.
  16. Jan 1, 2016
  17. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    Yeah, I can go with that.

    Utter spawn anyway! If he plays today and gets a 5-reel WD or Sh!tstorm then all the shiny stuff off of the Christmas tree will get wrapped around my head....
     
  18. Jan 1, 2016
  19. davidsmith56

    davidsmith56 Senior Member

    Occupation:
    retired civil servant
    Location:
    Kent,United Kingdom
    Yes,i was playing the Pair Plus but on the ship they did not have the Prime option.Instead they had an optional side bet where you could combine five out of the six cards from your hand and the dealers hand to make anything from a straight upwards.It all looked a bit weird so I didn't bother and there were very few payouts.However a royal flush paid odds of 10000 to 1 but I was told that this had only ever happened twice.
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Jan 1, 2016
  21. davidsmith56

    davidsmith56 Senior Member

    Occupation:
    retired civil servant
    Location:
    Kent,United Kingdom
    Thanks everyone for all the info and for taking the time to calculate all the figures:thumbsup:
     

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