Lessons learned from the Cipher thread

[The Dude]

The Cipher thread is closed - RIP, but I think it's important to note at least one thing that Simmo! mentioned in his closing statement:

There are a couple of potentially good lessons in all of this..in my opinion as follows:

1) Know the person you trust with your money, especially when they are not a multi-faceted business
2) Always get a legally binding business agreement in such a case
3) Why would you ever buy a gambling system? If it was truly successful, why would they want to sell it and risk it being busted?

Precisely - gambling systems are a bunch of crap. Snakeoil and BS. The only system that might work is counting cards at a live table - and who the hell wants to do that?

Buyer beware - if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. And of course, "a fool and his money are soon parted" are all applicable when dealing with gambling "systems".

You cannot predict chance - that's all there is to it.

 

[kengam]

I think I can safely assume that I falling from the list of most hated posters. I may be a pond scum sucking bonus whore, but I have never stolen anyone's money.

The industry is chock full of bad eggs and even thieving players. Do not trust anyone outside of your family with money. Do your due diligence, play where YOU feel safe playing and at the limits that YOU feel safe playing. Don't continue to feed money into a game or slot because you feel it is going to hit or that it is due.

The winning screenshots thread is most likely at least partially responsible for irresponsible gambling and ruining the financial livelihoods of many who have visited here. Bet with your head and not above it. The house has a mathematical edge on every game, so do not ever believe that there is a system that can beat it.

Play with bonuses and you may overcome the house edge by using the appropriate strategy. Never, ever waste your money on any kind of system.

 

[Pinababy69]

That's a good post Kengam, and sound advice. It's why I personally play only for enjoyment, and only with disposable income. I never look at gambling in any form as a money making venture, just entertainment.

Most hated posters? Nah.....you're like me, emotional.

 

[Random#rs]

Can I say one last word

I have known Cipher online (a little) and the BJ system he proclaims to beat the system with. I know what he's doing mathematically and it is a very rudimentary approach to Trend analysis. A mathematician would have a far more sophisticated approach. Random numbers is a rather arcane science within itself. Not defending what he's done, and not defending any efficiency in the system he has sold to many individuals (who in some cases claim it has worked) he has tried to construct a technique that works, and works well enough before the Casinos would deconstruct (or recognize) his analysis technique (they do monitor your betting practices) . I believe selling his system went defunct, when UIGEA and further related problems ensued; it is possible he then began to cannibalize his investors.

Because of the gross inefficiency and rudimentary technique of his system, a VERY Large betting spread is necessary; thus creating a potential for very fast wins and very fast losses on a large scale.

Using a far more sophisticated mathematical system, one could produce profits with a bet spread as low as a 2 to 1. I'm not trying to sell you a fact here, nor will I ever. I expect to be denounced for stating this and I won't contest anyone for doing so. I won't go up against another Mathematician on this issue.

I will not excuse what he has done to one or more of his investors; I believe it is reprehensible, and cannot be excused. I do recommend one thing however ... do not engage in any kind of implied innuendo to 'his demise'. I have known battle with the world and they can be very dangerous. Don't lend yourself to the possibility of this kind of resolution.

Let the Law deal with it.

enough said.....

 

[tristan727]

If Cipher was such a clever blackjack player, he would have used his system at Betfair casino....pays 2-1 on suited BJ, 100% return. I'll take gifts of $100, not $1k, for that info, ta.

 

[GrandMaster]

Do not trust anyone outside of your family with money.

Or not even your family. Just because they are related to you, it does not mean they are honest or competent.

I have known Cipher online (a little) and the BJ system he proclaims to beat the system with. I know what he's doing mathematically and it is a very rudimentary approach to Trend analysis. A mathematician would have a far more sophisticated approach. Random numbers is a rather arcane science within itself. Not defending what he's done, and not defending any efficiency in the system he has sold to many individuals (who in some cases claim it has worked) he has tried to construct a technique that works, and works well enough before the Casinos would deconstruct (or recognize) his analysis technique (they do monitor your betting practices) . I believe selling his system went defunct, when UIGEA and further related problems ensued; it is possible he then began to cannibalize his investors.

Because of the gross inefficiency and rudimentary technique of his system, a VERY Large betting spread is necessary; thus creating a potential for very fast wins and very fast losses on a large scale.

Using a far more sophisticated mathematical system, one could produce profits with a bet spread as low as a 2 to 1. I'm not trying to sell you a fact here, nor will I ever. I expect to be denounced for stating this and I won't contest anyone for doing so. I won't go up against another Mathematician on this issue.

Warning: I am a mathematician.

If the random number generator is good, then no system will work against it, no trend analysis, no large spread, nothing. A number of casinos have their RNGs tested by reputable organisations such as TST, I trust these RNGs to have the correct distribution and to be unpredictable.

 

[mitch]

If the random number generator is good, then no system will work against, no trend analysis, no large spread, nothing. .

Absolutely spot on GM. This statement shoud be a Sticky and required reading for all new members.

And if the RNG was no good then Internet Casinos would never make money. The software writers and their family and friends would have it all!

Mitch

 

[Slotster!]

I've learned that if you look like that Cipher/Bruce chap does - do not under any circumstances post a picture of yourself on your website... It looks like Homer in the episode of the Simpsons where he gains a load of weight so he can work from home and starts wearing that floral dress thing. Scary.

On a serious note, although I've not really given it much thought to be honest, I've always in the back of my mind kind of considered the 'cipher' poster to be straight up and doing what's right for people... I've no doubt agreed with him in the past on stuff... How wrong can you be?

I forget there are people in the world like this sometimes, and it's sad when you're reminded.

 

[Stanford]

Solid post Gamemaster

If the random number generator is good, then no system will work against it, no trend analysis, no large spread, nothing. A number of casinos have their RNGs tested by reputable organisations such as TST, I trust these RNGs to have the correct distribution and to be unpredictable.

Unpredictable indeed. To amplify your point, Cipher seeing trends in 30 hands is silly. Before Cipher gets rid of them, you goes should download the Videos of him playing the system and claiming to do just that. At one point he bets large and then passes up the double. I downloaded it just to show people what a $1,000 will buy. The videos are labeled as a "carepackage for Blackjackinfo.com". At one point, he explains why Michael Shackleford doesn't understand - worth the price of admission right there.

Stanford.

 

[Random#rs]

OK Grandmaster..... I know you are a Mathematician.

I concede to all the credit you are due - (empirical science/mathematics); all will substantiate your statement. I will not take up the gauntlet with you; I am all too familiar with mathematics to argue a point I cannot proof, for you.

"correct distribution and to be unpredictable."

All I can say is: "correct distribution" YES "unpredictable" NO

I am sorry if this is offensive, I respect your opinion as a Mathematician. My contradiction to your position is worthy of being thrashed and challenged by any Mathematician. I would have myself as well............

As I said I expect to be denounced by taking an unorthodox position on this matter of the predictability of RNG>Game results. I don't mind. I've done worse as far as sticking my neck in the noose.

On a side note: let me stress that I'm not trying to sell, or recommend anyone buy any Betting system from anyone, for any amount of money. My references to the predictability of a random game have nothing to do with the Cipher system or any other supposed system being purported to make you money. Stay away from them!

 

[Stanford]

deleted by poster

 

[Stanford]

I don't believe you

All I can say is: "correct distribution" YES "unpredictable" NO

[/B]

I don't buy it. Particularly, when in the first post you claim an association with Cipher and then don't state the obvious fraud. Instead you say it is a rudimentary trend analysis. It isn't.

Random numbers are not all that arcane. From Norm Whattenberger at QFIT,

"For any artifacts of an RNG to result in any discernable patterns in a large-scale casino operation would require monumentally poor programming. But, even if the RNG was completely predicatable, his methodology is nonsense. The patterns he is looking for would not be caused by the worst of RNGs. Also, his statement that different casinos from the same group exhibit different patterns is goofy. Casinos don't run the software. The software for hundreds of casinos operates on huge servers run by the software companies. In addition, if someone had a way to beat an online casino consistently, they would quickly bar him. The concept of using a casino like an ATM is preposterous."

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That doesn't mean there can't be an exploitable glitch. But when there is, it won't be something vague - you will be able to estimate the effect. Years ago, one brand of casino blackjack offered late surrender. But they programmed it wrong.

The dealer would check for a blackjack. The graphics would show the hand removing the wager if the dealer had a natural - but the chip count would increase. Yep - if the dealer had a BJ and the player surrendered he got the whole bet returned. Not only that, the casino offered 5 card charlie and 6 card charlie promotions. And Neteller Bonuses.

They fixed it of course. If they hadn't, I wouldn't be telling you about it. Which gets back to Casinomeister's original point. If someone can spin gold out of straw, don't expect him to lend you the spinning wheel.

Stanford.

 

[slotchik]

That's a good post Kengam, and sound advice. It's why I personally play only for enjoyment, and only with disposable income. I never look at gambling in any form as a money making venture, just entertainment.

I TOTALLY AGREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[aodat2]

Just in case you guys didn't hear this or know this. There's someone else that came up on the OPU saying that he too was scammed $12.35k by Cipher. It was way back in 2005 but he's been too shy to come out and also had hopes that Cipher would eventually pay him.

Gosh... what a Con Man this Cipher is. And yet we all think that he's good.

Yes I do admit that he has helped people in the past to get back their money from Casinos and etc. But I guess it's all with an alterior motive. Oh well... at least we all know now. Just beware and learn 1 BIG important thing.

Although someone may look good online, it does not necessarily mean that he's a good guy deep down within. Or in other words, "Know Who You Are Dealing With Before Giving People Money".

 

[mikepipe]

OK Grandmaster..... I know you are a Mathematician.

I concede to all the credit you are due - (empirical science/mathematics); all will substantiate your statement. I will not take up the gauntlet with you; I am all too familiar with mathematics to argue a point I cannot proof, for you.

"correct distribution and to be unpredictable."

All I can say is: "correct distribution" YES "unpredictable" NO

I am sorry if this is offensive, I respect your opinion as a Mathematician. My contradiction to your position is worthy of being thrashed and challenged by any Mathematician. I would have myself as well............

As I said I expect to be denounced by taking an unorthodox position on this matter of the predictability of RNG>Game results. I don't mind. I've done worse as far as sticking my neck in the noose.

On a side note: let me stress that I'm not trying to sell, or recommend anyone buy any Betting system from anyone, for any amount of money. My references to the predictability of a random game have nothing to do with the Cipher system or any other supposed system being purported to make you money. Stay away from them!

So what?
Is it superstition or the "must believe to read the slot" of a gambler, who does not want to accept that a good RNG is simply unpredictable?
(i know some of these gamblers, and one wrote THIS very post )

 

[lojo]

So what?
Is it superstition or the "must believe to read the slot" of a gambler, who does not want to accept that a good RNG is simply unpredictable?
(i know some of these gamblers, and one wrote THIS very post )

I'll take that challenge, "a good RNG is simply unpredictable" on a good night
On another night it is just superstition.

We've all thrown money after money? I have. I'd rather look at a mandelbrot (sp) set and play that way than follow a system. One night its Julia, the next second its... But numbers do not roll out into infinity in anything like 'good karma' or assured returns, they just roll.

But wouldn't that be the end all and get all? A little sygil magic, pick out the numerology, make the cash flow.. and then... what?

WHAT!?!

Go hug my baby, afford to travel, shower the people I love with love and everyone else too. Because I could afford to. I'm all full of love and money... yeah, money is love and love is money if you know what I mean, people who believe in money are the.... oops

Results, good and bad come in clumps. In the market you can sell short, on the craps table you can sit in the shadows. But a winner is a winner when all is said and done. And a loser is a loser. And as many have said here before ANY gamble is a negative expectation, with hopes for great rewards (variance notwithstanding)

yeah, I will do esp flashcards on three symbols and tell you what is going to come up next, (so can you) but I can't do it for very long, and it will never pay out in the long run.

But I'll take a rng challenge, if properly prepared and I can use Canadian research teams..sure.

 

[aka23]

If you know the algorithm used in the pseudorandom number generator, then predicting the next value in the sequence is a practical task. If you do not know the algorithm, then the outcome of a good PRNG should appear to be random. Predicting outcomes is theoretically possible, but would be extremely complex... for general purposes it would be nearly impossible. With casinos, we generally do not know how the PRNG is applied. If there are non-random elements, then it may be possible to predict outcomes. If outcomes are purely based on the PRNG, then it will not be possible to predict outcomes.

 

[Random#rs]

I don't buy it.

I know. Most online players don't. As I posted, I'm not trying to sell anything.

Particularly, when in the first post you claim an association with Cipher and then don't state the obvious fraud. Instead you say it is a rudimentary trend analysis. It isn't.

I exchanged a few emails with Cipher in 2005 about something we both observed playing at Casino-on-Net. He did offer me the use of the Cipher strand system, but I didn't need it; it was too elementary. It is a form of visual pattern trend analysis, with no mathematics involved and very short ranged. I believe a session was 40 hands. A number of people used it and claimed they had good results; it was useless to me.

"For any artifacts of an RNG to result in any discernible patterns in a large-scale casino operation would require monumentally poor programming. But, even if the RNG was completely predictable, his methodology is nonsense. The patterns he is looking for would not be caused by the worst of RNGs. Also, his statement that different casinos from the same group exhibit different patterns is goofy. Casinos don't run the software. The software for hundreds of casinos operates on huge servers run by the software companies. In addition, if someone had a way to beat an online casino consistently, they would quickly bar him. The concept of using a casino like an ATM is preposterous."

In general I would agree. Although, some visual patterns do repeat.

that doesn't mean there can't be an exploitable glitch.
They fixed it of course. If they hadn't, I wouldn't be telling you about it. Which gets back to Casinomeister's original point. If someone can spin gold out of straw, don't expect him to lend you the spinning wheel.
Stanford.

I emphatically agree. I never did understand why Cipher was so active in lending the spinning wheel. Fraud? ... maybe. To sell something he thought would be more profitable than using the wheel himself exclusively? Perhaps. A mix of both and more? Maybe that too.
I can't say, I don't know the man. We never discussed any systems or strategies, just a few emails in 2005.

 

[lojo]

If you know the algorithm used in the pseudorandom number generator, then predicting the next value in the sequence is a practical task. If you do not know the algorithm, then the outcome of a good PRNG should appear to be random. Predicting outcomes is theoretically possible, but would be extremely complex... for general purposes it would be nearly impossible. With casinos, we generally do not know how the PRNG is applied. If there are non-random elements, then it may be possible to predict outcomes. If outcomes are purely based on the PRNG, then it will not be possible to predict outcomes.

By PRNG I assume you mean the 'relationship' between the program and the rng. If there is a relationship it is NOT a random number. And if that is 'how' some online casinos deliver .98 then it is rigged. boof

rng is rng - program is program. they have nothing to do with each other in the games I play (ed)

I have studied more than 1,000,000 logged Mg games. it IS random to the best of my knowledge.

please don't confuse the tracked (1/124) *30 with reality. that is only probabilty rearing its head, that will happen. In clumps, long or short. There is no system to take advantage in the long run, though i wish you the best if you do that in a controlled way.

The math tells me that there is something bigger than pi to deal with, but I WILL take the rng challenge

 

[aka23]

By PRNG I assume you mean the 'relationship' between the program and the rng.

PNRG stands for pseudo-random number generator. I listed this phrase in the first sentence of my post and assumed you'd get the connection between the acronym. A RNG requires a natural event assumed to be random. A PRNG is an algorithmic computation, such as the type used in online gambling software.

The math tells me that there is something bigger than pi to deal with, but I WILL take the rng challenge

Bigger than pi? Pi is 3.14... . Or do you mean longer than pi... an irrational number with an infinite decimal expansion? That's not accurate either. A PRNG repeats itself after finishing a cycle. A good PRNG has an extremely long cycle that might repeat itself after 1.84 x 10^19 values. A basic PRNG has a shorter cycle and might repeat itself after 65536 values.

 

[lojo]

PNRG stands for pseudo-random number generator. I listed this phrase in the first sentence of my post and assumed you'd get the connection between the acronym. A RNG requires a natural event assumed to be random. A PRNG is an algorithmic computation, such as the type used in online gambling software.


Bigger than pi? Pi is 3.14... . Or do you mean longer than pi... an irrational number with an infinite decimal expansion? That's not accurate either. A PRNG repeats itself after finishing a cycle. A good PRNG has an extremely long cycle that might repeat itself after 1.84 x 10^19 values. A basic PRNG has a shorter cycle and might repeat itself after 65536 values.

Thanks for pointing that out, i was on a tear

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Funny how laurentian has dropped persinger pages tonight, as well as wiki... hmmm

So, back to the challenge, it would seem my canadian team has gone underground. But I can do it on my own. I will challenge any random number generator and predict a loss!!!

C'mon. I never wore a koren helmet, I never predicted the superbowl (And I'm not messing with you, I'm making a point)

random number generators are like the man who fell to earth or the boy who ate his dog. unless you are marylinmanson, and claim to to know that god is a number that no-one can count to, then it is ALL bull sh*t.
Otherwise, lets get to crackin

I don't want any data challenges (overwhelm the server)
But i do hereby solemny assert that I can predict a RNG.

But of course i will have to have grapes popped into my mouth and my toes nibbled on by fish.

Didn't mean to doubt your math, mine is just maybe different. And why bother, its just money.

 

[GrandMaster]

I will come up with a suitable challenge for those who claim to be able to predict random number.

 

[gerilege]

I'm not a mathematician, only a Computer Scientist

First we have to differentiate between the pure RNG and the algorithm. The RNG produces values in an interval. The algorithm uses this source value somehow to produce a final value. I will use "RNG" to denote the source, and "algorithm" to denote the code snippet which uses the result of the "RNG". The final requirement is:
The final value (outcome produced by the algorithm) shall be fair (evenly distributed) and independent (previous outcome does not influence future outcome).

The fact is known since J. Neumann; nevertheless I think it's still quite amazing to realize for the first time that the RNG need not to be necessarily fair so that the algorithm produce fair and independent final results. The stronger requirement is that the RNG should be independent. It's not very complicated to construct an evenly-distributed and independent outcome using results from an unfair, but independent RNG as a source, assuming we know exactly how the RNG is biased. But if the RNG is not independent, then we can't completely fix it with an algorithm.

Unfortunately Pseudo-RNGs might be fair, but not independent (as it is deterministically calculated with a computer) unless the RNG source includes some physical random elements (radioactive isotopes, cursor movements, timing of clicks, etc.). So in theory it is impossible to prove that the result of an algorithm is independent (although it might be evenly-distributed) unless you can prove that the RNG is independent. What we can do is to test the RNG/algorithm, and examine whether it behaves the same way as real random sequences. I think if an RNG passes these tests, it would be very hard to find a short-term pattern in it, even there's an extremely long cycle in the RNG. If the RNG is "good", and the cycle is big enough, than to decrypt this cycle you would need a series of very good (later proven) hypothesizes (or insider facts) regarding the bias in the RNG and/or algorithm. It is not something what a couple of NASA/CIA mathematicians could not do, but it would be almost impossible with a PC.

The human brain is extremely good in pattern-matching. So good, that a human being often sees patterns where there's no pattern at all. The nature and the world around us are full of natural, but random patterns, take fractals for example. Furthermore these patterns are more likely and frequent than most people would think. Let's take the birthday problem for example: how many people do you think it takes to make it more likely that two people have their birthday on the same day than not? Only 23.

But I know how it feels when you run into one of those winning/losing “patterns”.

 

[pangloss]

The winning screenshots thread is most likely at least partially responsible for irresponsible gambling and ruining the financial livelihoods of many who have visited here. /QUOTE]



Yes and I couldn't agree more. It is a bit rich for those who created, participated and are responsible for the enduring nature of that reprehensible thread to now get on the "woe is Cipher" band wagon.

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list.


...

 

[Simmo!]

Although I agree that that thread will undoubtedly affect people, it's true to say that any "positive" gambling thread could be construed as incitement to over-stretch oneself. And for every positive thread there's a negative thread. It's a gambling forum - it's natural that people would want to share their good experiences as much as they do their bad and there is also some very good advice round here on controlling the gambling habit if people choose to take notice. That thread has very little to do with fraud or even one's opinions on it to be honest.

 

[dominique]

The winning screenshots thread is most likely at least partially responsible for irresponsible gambling and ruining the financial livelihoods of many who have visited here. /QUOTE]



Yes and I couldn't agree more. It is a bit rich for those who created, participated and are responsible for the enduring nature of that reprehensible thread to now get on the "woe is Cipher" band wagon.

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list.


...

Re the winners shots:

I see nothing wrong with it. Most gamblers budget a certain amount of money per month and say: "these $100 say the next winners shot is mine". No different from playing the lottery, sending in a sweepstakes or going on a treasure hunt with a metal detector. If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

What you are saying is that it is wrong for a bar to display various types of Liquor bottles because some people are alcoholics. Did you know that the % of alcoholics among people who drink any type of alcohol is MUCH MUCH larger than the percentage of people with a gambling addiction among the people who gamble? Alcoholics die from their addiction.

What about people who weigh 500 pounds because they are addicted to carbohydrates or sugar? Should we forbid the grocery stores that display these items? Food addicts die from their addiction.

And the adrenalin addicts? Should we forbid extreme sports? Mountain climbing? The olympics? Adrenalin addicts die from their addiction.

No one died from gambling addiction yet as far as I know, people who are addicts end up broke and get help.

Lots of people like to gamble and have a budget for it, like to eat chocolate every day and are not fat, play sports and don't ruin their bodies. Should we all give up our personal freedoms because some people have an addictive personality?

 

[1819]

That's a good post Kengam, and sound advice. It's why I personally play only for enjoyment, and only with disposable income. I never look at gambling in any form as a money making venture, just entertainment.

Most hated posters? Nah.....you're like me, emotional.

very well said. people need to take a step back and take a good look in the mirror. when the finger pointing starts dont forget to point at that mirror first! its not the bonus that sucked "you" in. its not the winner screenshot section. its "you."

 

[The Dude]

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list....

I'm glad that the membership of the Accredited list is pretty much indestructible, and most of the members would agree to this as well. It's (nearly) indestructible because these are solid organizations that don't screw the players.

And lest we forget - last year a number of these casinos fell from grace, some even ended up getting rogued - so it's not all that indestructible or infallible. People screw up from time to time.

As for the Cipher thread being locked - Simmo upgraded it to closed after a number of members requested it to be closed (to include the OP). Besides it was turning into a Cipher bash fest - there was no real discussion going on. I started this thread to get to the meat of the matter - gambling systems. If you want to bash away at people, there are forums that welcome this with glee. This is not one of them.

Winning screenshots? What about "Screenshots that suck?" should I close that as well. The WS thread is an outlet to share experiences like any other. Next it'll be suggested that I turn off the banners ads so that you won't be tempted to click on any of them. There is a certain level of personal responsibility that is necessary to exercise in this form of entertainment. It's not up to me to monitor this. We're all grown-ups aren't we?

If you want to continue this discussion, feel free to start a new thread. This one should remain focused. Thanks!

 

[soflat]

Regarding the Winner's Screenshots thread-

Should anything that could negatively affect someone somewhere be censored? Maybe you guys can get the Republicans to close it down and protect us from the evil allure it has to us.

If you don't like the Winner's Screen Shots then don't look at it.

As for the discussion about predicting/beating the rng, maybe you guys should learn a lesson from Cipher.

 

[kengam]

Re the winners shots:

I see nothing wrong with it. Most gamblers budget a certain amount of money per month and say: "these $100 say the next winners shot is mine". No different from playing the lottery, sending in a sweepstakes or going on a treasure hunt with a metal detector. If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

Do you really believe most gamblers gamble on a budget? I would say not. As far as assuming that I might have a gambling probem myself, I can assure you that I do not. I will give you some background on me.

I started playing online casinos when they first came around in 1997. I found that I can play with bonuses everytime and have the advantage over the house. I never once played without a bonus being involved. I never once played when I did not have the mathematical advantage over the house. My results are on par with that. I did not win every session, but profits were consistent over time.

I played every promotion I could find. I managed accounts for several dozen people and shared the profits with them. Needless to say, I did very well for myself and for others. I am officially retired now, and have made much more than I can spend in a lifetime. I basically stopped playing when the US started coming down on online outfits. After losing about 60k when Bet on Sports shut down I began to realize that the legal situation was creating a doubt on my continued profits in this biz. I basically started withdrawing from all my accounts after the November anti-gambling bill was passed. I currently still have about 70k still in neteller and I am unsure if I will be able to retrieve it. The final bell has rung on my enterprise. It was a fun ride while it lasted (9 years). I do not miss the gambling aspect. I am not tempted to play as I know the advantage I once had is no longer there.

Many other people over the years have tried what I have done. Some were quite successful, but most were not. The inability of the average player to secure in his mind that he is only playing with an advantage can prove to be the downfall. Many that I know began to chase losses and really try to hit the big score (ie gambling). Some saw the success that I was having and began to try to up their bets and wager on well after the requirements were hit. Some claimed to be able to predict patterns much like Cipher and paid dearly for their mistake. I have seen players make 6 figures playing bonuses only to lose it all when the bonuses stopped but their playing did not.

To assume that most people have a budget and control over their gambling is extremely naive and unresponsible thinking. I stand by my statement that the winning screenshot threads are causing more harm than not in the psychy of the average gambler.

 

[silcnlayc]

Choices

Regarding the Winner's Screenshots thread-

It does get a little irritating to see others wanting to pass the blame/buck and never own up to ones own decisions/choices.

One thing we were given was the freedom to choose by birth. This country has gotten to the point of, it's always the next guys fault for what "I" did cause he made me do it. That mentality is so abundant in this world it has gotten truly sickening.

The worst part is, we, as a country perpetuate this sickness by allowing people not to take responsiblity for the choices they have chosen to take and actually let them off the hook for doing some really stupid things because "he couldn't help himself".

There is a certain level of personal responsibility that is necessary to exercise in this form of entertainment. It's not up to me to monitor this. We're all grown-ups aren't we?

I want to say, thank you Bryan for pointing out this and telling us we ARE grownups and we do HAVE choices and to be a man/woman with morales and own up to your own short commings instead of trying to force others to change to accomodate and excuse your behaviour and accept your bad choices! TAKE RESPOSIBILITY of YOURSELF and stop passing the buck!

 

[Simmo!]

I stand by my statement that the winning screenshot threads are causing more harm than not in the psychy of the average gambler.

Whether thats true or not - and it more than likely is - the whole point of a gambling forum is to discuss all aspects of gambling, both good, bad, fun,not so fun and even the social implications thereof. Such as this very debate we're having now. Censure is not the only way to go as we have discussed at length since October. Balanced and different views are/can be far more productive. Those people who are the type to be "influenced" by such a thread, by their very presence here, also have access to a lot of information that can help them also. You don't stop everyone from doing something (that's not illegal!) because of a few - well, unless you're being funded by Harrahs of course

 

[cheekymonkey]

Hi kengam

I just don't get this part of your post.

Firstly you quote:

I never once played when I did not have the mathematical advantage over the house. My results are on par with that.

Then this:

I did not win every session, but profits were consistent over time.

If you had a mathematical advantage for each session, how come you had losing sessions?

Sorry for asking, just a bit puzzling.

 

[The Dude]

...Those people who are the type to be "influenced" by such a thread, by their very presence here, also have access to a lot of information that can help them also...

I wish I said that.

 

[soflat]

First they took away our ability to fund our gambling accounts and enjoy that form of recreation. Now they want to stop us from enjoying some Winner Screenshots. Geesh! What's next??

 

[Simmo!]

I wish I said that.

Nah you don't - the use of a double-"also" in the same sentence would have people riduculing your grammatical prowess Sheesh....where did our education system go so wrong

 

[cheekymonkey]

First they took away our ability to fund our gambling accounts and enjoy that form of recreation. Now they want to stop us from enjoying some Winner Screenshots. Geesh! What's next??

No more porn.

 

[casplayer]

Hi kengam

I just don't get this part of your post.

Firstly you quote:



Then this:



If you had a mathematical advantage for each session, how come you had losing sessions?

Sorry for asking, just a bit puzzling.

variance is the magic word

 

[cheekymonkey]

variance is the magic word

Ok - but the way it was worded made it sound a bit contradictory.

 

[kengam]

Hi kengam

I just don't get this part of your post.

Firstly you quote:



Then this:



If you had a mathematical advantage for each session, how come you had losing sessions?

Sorry for asking, just a bit puzzling.

Even if you play a 100 deposit 100 bonus 2500 in wagers deal which allows blackjack (Intercasino) then you will not always come out ahead. You do have the mathematical advantage though, and your expected profit is about 89 dollars. You may lose your entire deposit and bonus on any one deal, but if you do this deal 1000 times then you WILL profit close to $89,000. I hope I have made this more clear.

 

[cheekymonkey]

Even if you play a 100 deposit 100 bonus 2500 in wagers deal which allows blackjack (Intercasino) then you will not always come out ahead. You do have the mathematical advantage though, and your expected profit is about 89 dollars. You may lose your entire deposit and bonus on any one deal, but if you do this deal 1000 times then you WILL profit close to $89,000. I hope I have made this more clear.

Thanks kengam.

 

[dominique]

I started playing online casinos when they first came around in 1997. I found that I can play with bonuses everytime and have the advantage over the house.

It is true that back then it was possible to have an edge. I took advantage of it myself. Wagering requirements have made this a lot more difficult if not impossible.

Soflat/Cheekymonkey: What's next? No more porn.

 

[aka23]

It is true that back then it was possible to have an edge. I took advantage of it myself. Wagering requirements have made this a lot more difficult if not impossible.

It is most certainly not "impossible" to gain a player advantage using bonuses. It is often not even particularly difficult. The majority of sign-on bonuses that I am aware of have a player advantage with optimal basic play.

 

[dominique]

It is most certainly not "impossible" to gain a player advantage using bonuses. It is often not even particularly difficult. The majority of sign-on bonuses that I am aware of have a player advantage with optimal basic play.

I'll take your word for it.

I quit for a number of reasons - to create G&C which was always a full time endeavor, because I got tired of chiselling away at BJ with basic strategy having become a routine and mindless, and because all the new WR cropping up made it less easy to win consistently.

Mostly I just got bored with BJ, I played too much of it. It's entertaining again today since it's been years since I tried to make money at it.

 

[lojo]

I'm not a kook, really

For the sake of inquiry... any thoughts on this?

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

Okay, maybe I am mad, an ameteur mad scientist. My interest into Dr. Persinger's work was in seeking relief for autism. If you could record the 'well' state of an autist's brain waves and then 'replay' those same waves at the onset of an episode, it may arrest the state and entrain the autist to their 'well' state.

If the whole quantum thingy has any merit, it may be possible to predict a RNG. (freakin nutcase

I guess if I had access to an eeg an did a few thousand gaming sessions to look for anomolies right before a win... went to Old / Expired Link and got me some of them thar magnet thingies, and played back my 'win' state of brainwaves to myself and recorded that session. I'd know.

 

[pangloss]

If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

What a cheap low-life shot that was - instead of engaging reasoned debate on the proposition put forward you degenerate into mudslinging. After all, the thread is titled what lessons we have learned from the Cipher incident so maybe some sober reflection on our collective participation on a board promoting gambling is both timely and required. I find your highly offensive remarks telling to say the least.

I find the winner screenshots thread insidiuous given a disturbingly high number of it's participants have their hand in the player's pocket in one way or another. It is not a thread that has the average player's (gambler's) interests at heart but is driven at the very expense and cost to the player.

It is the very nature of the winner screenshots thread existence that I find so offensive and entirely inappropriate in the promotion of responsible gaming.


...

 

[GrandMaster]

Unfortunately Pseudo-RNGs might be fair, but not independent (as it is deterministically calculated with a computer) unless the RNG source includes some physical random elements (radioactive isotopes, cursor movements, timing of clicks, etc.).

They don't have to completely independent. If you cannot obtain enough useful information about the next random number by using all the computer power in the world for a million years, that's good enough for most practical purposes.

 

[GrandMaster]

Challenge, as promised:
There are two blocks of 40 rows below, each row containing a permutation of the letters a-z and A-Z. Think of them as symbols representing the 52 cards in a deck. One block is random, the other one is predictable, each row is obtained by a simple mathematical procedure. Identify which block is predictable and calculate the next row. This should be much easier than predicting the cards at blackjack since in blackjack you only ever get to see the first few cards of the deck.

mbsZeGMDyOKivVLxRTzXnhWCugkANoIYcjqapJrSBfdltwUHFQPE
KckjhmfXLBRnZdeiEVgrtMHGzOTuwvAsxNbpJyqWQoIlFYPUDaCS
tNmoUfPYiqLdFRuaxbSCzkhWnwBgcjrXTMHIyeZEVlAJQGvDOKsp
igJQvMxIpTnUAShzbNqYaVBkfuHdDXROwFcGKtlsjyELComPeZWr
bOpUlFucernqSdCyTmXhVJKjoMzfLgDtsxENwYQBvRGaHWZkAIPi
pycHnreFiwLVdEWBsRkqYXxtMulhTKGPIZAofDQCbSNvJaOUmzjg
urMSZvbNJBHOLGgFCziERswWcqVQhjIPTnaXfADUkYKetlmdxpoy
MWBtHdVqnfjLOKlrzpEaSAwFNUscmxkvGiuTPeIDbZhoCyXgJQRY
oeKXbpchgNyrjaZYlRJTsHWLMimUPwVtuIFqzOfkABvGCdSnEQxD
xFhkKCtmGAcsjdbUzvuSagwZXOnIeJiEyToLRYMfpNDVqBrWQPHl
rIBvERUlnwkYpfxGOZdMVgqbFaAQDWcoCsHiSeXNJKmujTPzyhtL
YSmXONBAajRLfPKqGTuebhQJDnxEFztWMklpyZCUHcwdsrVigIov
gxHUnzZdvqBsPDLFGYkXyMaocbfWimlIEVTCOSKReuwrAQNJhpjt
ejqApUwxTQbOdysHFritlLfagNSmKYCDIRoMWZzcuEGhXvnPVkJB
WCBJuDMpdElyHbthKLrTmijOPARZgzSsXvYIVkcUexwQoaNFfGqn
yFIUDcesGfapnqbPoJLkiXNwBhSEuQTdvrZWxtjRgOCAHzYlMmKV
FVHcyqAvRgeMQETOfnLiJawmSopZjUGdlkItxCKbhWDXruBzNYsP
OLKRhEiJmQMsFxuwkZapUvYfVPbHnNyWGtqcgzTCjDeAXSoBIrld
cMnIZTrYpyUgjuoAHfilNSbEkVWzqsaBOFPewJmdLKDQtRGvXxCh
JnfrvGApeNgzRFcYhDWjHOakPIBMyLXCsmEtbuUQioVwlZSdqxTK
wREHIthgbvopDGNMlajiqxJkmzPKUcLFyXsYCnBQVrdZAWOSfTue
vHZGliqBKrDdVMFyTWxPCufSboIRgtkheNJzUQsLYcOnApjEmXwa
wJTDLvMPGVEunjdOzYQIgoihZsNRAtqUrkfWmFBSHcaCKlbpyeXx
SXlbyHdUgvZNARhVmiDWjTPInLxaBKFqJOwoYGrMCkEecsuQtpzf
vsOIagQTLqEABYrXdiHWzUmRwhFjfclVytGnpPCNSxoMbDkZJueK
YyjofZKXrhIcMBkVRJWnQNlHvqUPeAuLtOgbpizaxFmGsEdSwCDT
DcfmbIlHyBVRvhLXsQSWPzFaxkdUtANoYJnMZEjCOGTiupKgrqwe
flRJKpVQrEtxehuTzBbDkaUndoIHYLqFwsmWCiXNGSPvOcgyMZjA
dBejxlfOzGuYCqytrvSFosEwJnLmhKDVAcUkpPHbaWNQTgXZMiRI
mvrXAZVcPNMflsSTtgRIyLCQeihWUqbuFOaBDdzYjkwoGpxnEKHJ
kcpDqwtAyEuGRnjKmdaVoBrXMOzxNhPJUQfFgTSYlHbWeZILivsC
URLPdaJAEvOfHGpVuZwxBkcYQijzKgWSnmXlDNsoFybehICtqTrM
SdZmVNfAqcMJjaYhGvRneitgOEybspuxXrCoLKUQwlBPzFkDHTWI
XqImgOSiyzfcbCDNpKZTYBVwRQWFJxEdGeknArUvlsLujaotHMPh
AlUrnYSceKRJikvyaMVXmugoxHBPtDbWFILhQpsdZNEOqzwfjCGT
aGJzOVQplEvhmZNLirkdHqxTsFewDSYbMtUXRBfynuAgIjPCKocW
jUvQtNKLSBmkxYPOCwXslGqDgnWVzoaIrRMepdTicubJyEfZHhFA
ebptWVYsXGHJljzLOfgrUaNFCKZQSiMhkoxDnucTvmwIBRydAqPE
auCWQgJVMqxGEvlYoDPmLTSybApzIijfwKNcdnBkeRrhXFZHsOUt
ryvgoEhqsfIWHQjtpTnNVGXxKLZbCBRulmizPJaMkFOcdDYwASUe


mbsZeGMDyOKivVLxRTzXnhWCugkANoIYcjqapJrSBfdltwUHFQPE
KckjhmfXLBRnZdeiEVgrtMHGzOTuwvAsxNbpJyqWQoIlFYPUDaCS
clUqVTHPsNRXapfokmJKMEzIQxOAytdDvSbCnwigZejGLWuhrBFY
hPaRXAMWBbnSucxTVQpGLKlyrvDdCZswNeEokiYtFJqfUmOIHgzj
GOAdsVHIyZBQMcpUFzqmSxrkuYRDhJXwTPNEnfbLtivjColeagKW
wGLtFnAWeMRrpqyKvOIVdkuUHPQBEflobTCjNJhSiYmxXacDZzgs
AZOliRhzrQwpjVgScILxFUCPmModWGefXuTsNKyntBJEbYDavqHk
nSthKRrwJecQWFbMAgmpGYiTxDdjZqEkavHUPVCoufNBOLIylzsX
ZWYbskvORtFhDlVXICqeioruMwfScAaypTJnHBPEgLmKzQdxjNUG
ptRKfsJuCOPDEZbvTianIAGgcVqmMxlLoYzQeWUXwyHShkFdBNjr
pMREAZUdJKYatWwjQXguHbhyrfNsqDBIiFPOckxSTlnmzGCLvVoe
jnrzLIGJgutVBRbXWFZMKTPxpcYNaesSlAwHkODfiEdUQyvhCqom
TQqLtpYWPjuyxszZdaNDmAMHVGSikgwEfKBrXIORcbovJlenFCUh
bVECZQxGaJvTDMcduWAXRIrFjyOiLgNwmKBkqtPzshneflpHUYoS
brTSjWyXuYgdVwfUeHmolZAPiRDNCIshqpnFzOtLBavKJExkMGcQ
gUmncxjXiLkKFozHvsfZMaAqBuyYPeSrdVpTCQOIDhJwGltRWNEb
rAvpKBXdewxYZGNmcOjyETFtDnLUqkPfJalbzQShoiMusICRVgWH
IRACBzErcOxpDabdvXhNjmVFnSgTMHiUlfsPGoYqyJLkQZWetKwu
OMIBsclzGymXRiAvVnThfUDWrgQbEuPjeqtYKxokCdHSNJpZLawF
MfPcXAkuLEWxpwyzFaoleOUvgKqYTdjGChsQJmBRVtbiNnZrSHID
DyNPLsKSdCqXiacRgoFYtEjpQzlHZOBVwJkTbneWUfxrvhAGIumM
eBhsTVpAvclHimrnwgYKzdXNGIkULDtQWZECJPauyRjoSqxfMFbO
vEejTKnoLZyVbwfAadmlBxMRGqDsrPNhtQpUJuOIXgHCkicSzFWY
BgqzaOCHyDXEtYZiVcFdfUTuWRSbGkQvwNrjnoxIhJKpLPeAlmsM
YyJurKlkMFHfzUswOagQDjLPVcidmovnWNZxtTbpCSAeIhGREBXq
IFRWUOdCYbkPTEJGzcxngiVBymrQsqaXhpZvNLolDtfKwSejHuAM
fUKQGmYpyFkjqCirRLHecnAPdXauTJgVsWlOzwbxhvMoZNSEIDBt
MPLHNDfWJSUcTmhdrOjzXgRnvYCQiZtABwGIkKaExsluFbqyeoVp
BmXkAVobdfGzcZROiFYDswaqMvWrCynKgEINlxueULJhtHjSPpQT
tsoHqIahOGyYLClzMxZwdBKJrFeuSWEkvTAipQNUVRXPDcbfgnjm
VHiYBxskeDmqNgZzQlAuhcFWtLnGCrpJSEjwoIdKaPOUTMyvXfRb
MgrvsENTXPLOikbnAKxGDWtdhIaepqlcjBFHVuZofYzQySwmRJCU
iMvBqDHoIuRyeVJkbTpXYzOGsmratAdNhnWfSUQEKPxwjglFCcZL
yGCNSnApiDrHudQBcvZYTkFKtjEMeUJasxIWRoLfOqbmVzXlgPwh
JnpqYGoHNOsbcZeRDdilUWMyBwACuIgKSxrfvPmTXQjhaEVFkzLt
QJFKzfDUtLXGghmSAjNyiCbaxlBvsEqnYWHpZPorTRwVkIudOMec
onZSvKGPihQVtJAUxmXRFqsMlHYCujbTckfaDdpregBOwyWLzENI
RDHlvopzWTCSgFcbyAMZxsKLurnBYNEfUmJVijtkeaGIQXOhqPdw
QFTlKJahxWSOkGrBMpnXviouegNHPmRcbysCYLAIEtVwzZfUDqjd
cIYbiSnZwuBTFWsXOfxPQNqoAdzhEpkrCGjeVHtyLRMKgDmvaUlJ

 

[Simmo!]

After all, the thread is titled what lessons we have learned from the Cipher incident so maybe some sober reflection on our collective participation on a board promoting gambling is both timely and required.

Cipher has been accused of fraud. I'm not getting the connection between a problem with gambling and fraud here? Yes I can see they are related given that he alledgedly defrauded a gambler with a gambling program but how is that teaching us "sober reflection on our collective participation on a board promoting gambling"?

I find the winner screenshots thread insidiuous given a disturbingly high number of it's participants have their hand in the player's pocket in one way or another. It is not a thread that has the average player's (gambler's) interests at heart but is driven at the very expense and cost to the player.

Then why read it? Or are you trying to stir up (yet) another "them" and "us" issue with players and affiliates? To suggest that thread is driven by affiliates trying to persuade players to gamble is quite frankly, ridiculous. I can pretty much guarantee that everyone in there is contributing because they like showing off. Nothing more, nothing less

It is the very nature of the winner screenshots thread existence that I find so offensive and entirely inappropriate in the promotion of responsible gaming.

You'd be a fun night out then

Identify which block is predictable and calculate the next row. This should be much easier than predicting the cards at blackjack since in blackjack you only ever get to see the first few cards of the deck.

Can I come back to you on that one GM? Only "Wife Swap" is on.

 

[aka23]

I'll take your word for it.

You don't need to take my word for it. The house edges of online casino games are generally well known and listed on sites such as Wizard of Odds. Once you know the house edge of the game, it's basic math.

I quit for a number of reasons - to create G&C which was always a full time endeavor, because I got tired of chiselling away at BJ with basic strategy having become a routine and mindless, and because all the new WR cropping up made it less easy to win consistently.

Most players on this forum favor Microgaming casinos. Under standard implementation of Microgaming Clearplay/EZ Bonuses, winnnings from bonuses can be cashed out at any point without completing a wagering requirement. The only additional time requirement is waiting for the bonus to be credited to your account.

...and because all the new WR cropping up made it less easy to win consistently... Mostly I just got bored with BJ, I played too much of it. It's entertaining again today since it's been years since I tried to make money at it.

If you must "win consistently", then yes, spending many hours playing a low house edge game/low variance game is the way to go. However, we weren't talking about winning consistently, we were talking about having a player edge over the casino. You still have a player edge with high-risk play, where you don't spend long hours, and don't win consistently. And there are plenty of games that can be played besides BJ. Under standard MG Clearplay/eZ Bonus rules, all casino games are allowed.