Lessons learned from the Cipher thread

[dominique]

The winning screenshots thread is most likely at least partially responsible for irresponsible gambling and ruining the financial livelihoods of many who have visited here. /QUOTE]



Yes and I couldn't agree more. It is a bit rich for those who created, participated and are responsible for the enduring nature of that reprehensible thread to now get on the "woe is Cipher" band wagon.

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list.


...

Re the winners shots:

I see nothing wrong with it. Most gamblers budget a certain amount of money per month and say: "these $100 say the next winners shot is mine". No different from playing the lottery, sending in a sweepstakes or going on a treasure hunt with a metal detector. If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

What you are saying is that it is wrong for a bar to display various types of Liquor bottles because some people are alcoholics. Did you know that the % of alcoholics among people who drink any type of alcohol is MUCH MUCH larger than the percentage of people with a gambling addiction among the people who gamble? Alcoholics die from their addiction.

What about people who weigh 500 pounds because they are addicted to carbohydrates or sugar? Should we forbid the grocery stores that display these items? Food addicts die from their addiction.

And the adrenalin addicts? Should we forbid extreme sports? Mountain climbing? The olympics? Adrenalin addicts die from their addiction.

No one died from gambling addiction yet as far as I know, people who are addicts end up broke and get help.

Lots of people like to gamble and have a budget for it, like to eat chocolate every day and are not fat, play sports and don't ruin their bodies. Should we all give up our personal freedoms because some people have an addictive personality?

 

[1819]

That's a good post Kengam, and sound advice. It's why I personally play only for enjoyment, and only with disposable income. I never look at gambling in any form as a money making venture, just entertainment.

Most hated posters? Nah.....you're like me, emotional.

very well said. people need to take a step back and take a good look in the mirror. when the finger pointing starts dont forget to point at that mirror first! its not the bonus that sucked "you" in. its not the winner screenshot section. its "you."

 

[Casinomeister]

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list....

I'm glad that the membership of the Accredited list is pretty much indestructible, and most of the members would agree to this as well. It's (nearly) indestructible because these are solid organizations that don't screw the players.

And lest we forget - last year a number of these casinos fell from grace, some even ended up getting rogued - so it's not all that indestructible or infallible. People screw up from time to time.

As for the Cipher thread being locked - Simmo upgraded it to closed after a number of members requested it to be closed (to include the OP). Besides it was turning into a Cipher bash fest - there was no real discussion going on. I started this thread to get to the meat of the matter - gambling systems. If you want to bash away at people, there are forums that welcome this with glee. This is not one of them.

Winning screenshots? What about "Screenshots that suck?" should I close that as well. The WS thread is an outlet to share experiences like any other. Next it'll be suggested that I turn off the banners ads so that you won't be tempted to click on any of them. There is a certain level of personal responsibility that is necessary to exercise in this form of entertainment. It's not up to me to monitor this. We're all grown-ups aren't we?

If you want to continue this discussion, feel free to start a new thread. This one should remain focused. Thanks!

 

[soflat]

Regarding the Winner's Screenshots thread-

Should anything that could negatively affect someone somewhere be censored? Maybe you guys can get the Republicans to close it down and protect us from the evil allure it has to us.

If you don't like the Winner's Screen Shots then don't look at it.

As for the discussion about predicting/beating the rng, maybe you guys should learn a lesson from Cipher.

 

[kengam]

Re the winners shots:

I see nothing wrong with it. Most gamblers budget a certain amount of money per month and say: "these $100 say the next winners shot is mine". No different from playing the lottery, sending in a sweepstakes or going on a treasure hunt with a metal detector. If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

Do you really believe most gamblers gamble on a budget? I would say not. As far as assuming that I might have a gambling probem myself, I can assure you that I do not. I will give you some background on me.

I started playing online casinos when they first came around in 1997. I found that I can play with bonuses everytime and have the advantage over the house. I never once played without a bonus being involved. I never once played when I did not have the mathematical advantage over the house. My results are on par with that. I did not win every session, but profits were consistent over time.

I played every promotion I could find. I managed accounts for several dozen people and shared the profits with them. Needless to say, I did very well for myself and for others. I am officially retired now, and have made much more than I can spend in a lifetime. I basically stopped playing when the US started coming down on online outfits. After losing about 60k when Bet on Sports shut down I began to realize that the legal situation was creating a doubt on my continued profits in this biz. I basically started withdrawing from all my accounts after the November anti-gambling bill was passed. I currently still have about 70k still in neteller and I am unsure if I will be able to retrieve it. The final bell has rung on my enterprise. It was a fun ride while it lasted (9 years). I do not miss the gambling aspect. I am not tempted to play as I know the advantage I once had is no longer there.

Many other people over the years have tried what I have done. Some were quite successful, but most were not. The inability of the average player to secure in his mind that he is only playing with an advantage can prove to be the downfall. Many that I know began to chase losses and really try to hit the big score (ie gambling). Some saw the success that I was having and began to try to up their bets and wager on well after the requirements were hit. Some claimed to be able to predict patterns much like Cipher and paid dearly for their mistake. I have seen players make 6 figures playing bonuses only to lose it all when the bonuses stopped but their playing did not.

To assume that most people have a budget and control over their gambling is extremely naive and unresponsible thinking. I stand by my statement that the winning screenshot threads are causing more harm than not in the psychy of the average gambler.

 

[silcnlayc]

Choices

Regarding the Winner's Screenshots thread-

It does get a little irritating to see others wanting to pass the blame/buck and never own up to ones own decisions/choices.

One thing we were given was the freedom to choose by birth. This country has gotten to the point of, it's always the next guys fault for what "I" did cause he made me do it. That mentality is so abundant in this world it has gotten truly sickening.

The worst part is, we, as a country perpetuate this sickness by allowing people not to take responsiblity for the choices they have chosen to take and actually let them off the hook for doing some really stupid things because "he couldn't help himself".

There is a certain level of personal responsibility that is necessary to exercise in this form of entertainment. It's not up to me to monitor this. We're all grown-ups aren't we?

I want to say, thank you Bryan for pointing out this and telling us we ARE grownups and we do HAVE choices and to be a man/woman with morales and own up to your own short commings instead of trying to force others to change to accomodate and excuse your behaviour and accept your bad choices! TAKE RESPOSIBILITY of YOURSELF and stop passing the buck!

 

[Simmo!]

I stand by my statement that the winning screenshot threads are causing more harm than not in the psychy of the average gambler.

Whether thats true or not - and it more than likely is - the whole point of a gambling forum is to discuss all aspects of gambling, both good, bad, fun,not so fun and even the social implications thereof. Such as this very debate we're having now. Censure is not the only way to go as we have discussed at length since October. Balanced and different views are/can be far more productive. Those people who are the type to be "influenced" by such a thread, by their very presence here, also have access to a lot of information that can help them also. You don't stop everyone from doing something (that's not illegal!) because of a few - well, unless you're being funded by Harrahs of course

 

[cheekymonkey]

Hi kengam

I just don't get this part of your post.

Firstly you quote:

I never once played when I did not have the mathematical advantage over the house. My results are on par with that.

Then this:

I did not win every session, but profits were consistent over time.

If you had a mathematical advantage for each session, how come you had losing sessions?

Sorry for asking, just a bit puzzling.

 

[Casinomeister]

...Those people who are the type to be "influenced" by such a thread, by their very presence here, also have access to a lot of information that can help them also...

I wish I said that.

 

[soflat]

First they took away our ability to fund our gambling accounts and enjoy that form of recreation. Now they want to stop us from enjoying some Winner Screenshots. Geesh! What's next??

 

[Simmo!]

I wish I said that.

Nah you don't - the use of a double-"also" in the same sentence would have people riduculing your grammatical prowess Sheesh....where did our education system go so wrong

 

[cheekymonkey]

First they took away our ability to fund our gambling accounts and enjoy that form of recreation. Now they want to stop us from enjoying some Winner Screenshots. Geesh! What's next??

No more porn.

 

[casplayer]

Hi kengam

I just don't get this part of your post.

Firstly you quote:



Then this:



If you had a mathematical advantage for each session, how come you had losing sessions?

Sorry for asking, just a bit puzzling.

variance is the magic word

 

[cheekymonkey]

variance is the magic word

Ok - but the way it was worded made it sound a bit contradictory.

 

[kengam]

Hi kengam

I just don't get this part of your post.

Firstly you quote:



Then this:



If you had a mathematical advantage for each session, how come you had losing sessions?

Sorry for asking, just a bit puzzling.

Even if you play a 100 deposit 100 bonus 2500 in wagers deal which allows blackjack (Intercasino) then you will not always come out ahead. You do have the mathematical advantage though, and your expected profit is about 89 dollars. You may lose your entire deposit and bonus on any one deal, but if you do this deal 1000 times then you WILL profit close to $89,000. I hope I have made this more clear.

 

[cheekymonkey]

Even if you play a 100 deposit 100 bonus 2500 in wagers deal which allows blackjack (Intercasino) then you will not always come out ahead. You do have the mathematical advantage though, and your expected profit is about 89 dollars. You may lose your entire deposit and bonus on any one deal, but if you do this deal 1000 times then you WILL profit close to $89,000. I hope I have made this more clear.

Thanks kengam.

 

[dominique]

I started playing online casinos when they first came around in 1997. I found that I can play with bonuses everytime and have the advantage over the house.

It is true that back then it was possible to have an edge. I took advantage of it myself. Wagering requirements have made this a lot more difficult if not impossible.

Soflat/Cheekymonkey: What's next? No more porn.

 

[aka23]

It is true that back then it was possible to have an edge. I took advantage of it myself. Wagering requirements have made this a lot more difficult if not impossible.

It is most certainly not "impossible" to gain a player advantage using bonuses. It is often not even particularly difficult. The majority of sign-on bonuses that I am aware of have a player advantage with optimal basic play.

 

[dominique]

It is most certainly not "impossible" to gain a player advantage using bonuses. It is often not even particularly difficult. The majority of sign-on bonuses that I am aware of have a player advantage with optimal basic play.

I'll take your word for it.

I quit for a number of reasons - to create G&C which was always a full time endeavor, because I got tired of chiselling away at BJ with basic strategy having become a routine and mindless, and because all the new WR cropping up made it less easy to win consistently.

Mostly I just got bored with BJ, I played too much of it. It's entertaining again today since it's been years since I tried to make money at it.

 

[lojo]

I'm not a kook, really

For the sake of inquiry... any thoughts on this?

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Okay, maybe I am mad, an ameteur mad scientist. My interest into Dr. Persinger's work was in seeking relief for autism. If you could record the 'well' state of an autist's brain waves and then 'replay' those same waves at the onset of an episode, it may arrest the state and entrain the autist to their 'well' state.

If the whole quantum thingy has any merit, it may be possible to predict a RNG. (freakin nutcase

I guess if I had access to an eeg an did a few thousand gaming sessions to look for anomolies right before a win... went to Old / Expired Link and got me some of them thar magnet thingies, and played back my 'win' state of brainwaves to myself and recorded that session. I'd know.

 

[pangloss]

If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

What a cheap low-life shot that was - instead of engaging reasoned debate on the proposition put forward you degenerate into mudslinging. After all, the thread is titled what lessons we have learned from the Cipher incident so maybe some sober reflection on our collective participation on a board promoting gambling is both timely and required. I find your highly offensive remarks telling to say the least.

I find the winner screenshots thread insidiuous given a disturbingly high number of it's participants have their hand in the player's pocket in one way or another. It is not a thread that has the average player's (gambler's) interests at heart but is driven at the very expense and cost to the player.

It is the very nature of the winner screenshots thread existence that I find so offensive and entirely inappropriate in the promotion of responsible gaming.


...

 

[GrandMaster]

Unfortunately Pseudo-RNGs might be fair, but not independent (as it is deterministically calculated with a computer) unless the RNG source includes some physical random elements (radioactive isotopes, cursor movements, timing of clicks, etc.).

They don't have to completely independent. If you cannot obtain enough useful information about the next random number by using all the computer power in the world for a million years, that's good enough for most practical purposes.

 

[GrandMaster]

Challenge, as promised:
There are two blocks of 40 rows below, each row containing a permutation of the letters a-z and A-Z. Think of them as symbols representing the 52 cards in a deck. One block is random, the other one is predictable, each row is obtained by a simple mathematical procedure. Identify which block is predictable and calculate the next row. This should be much easier than predicting the cards at blackjack since in blackjack you only ever get to see the first few cards of the deck.

mbsZeGMDyOKivVLxRTzXnhWCugkANoIYcjqapJrSBfdltwUHFQPE
KckjhmfXLBRnZdeiEVgrtMHGzOTuwvAsxNbpJyqWQoIlFYPUDaCS
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bOpUlFucernqSdCyTmXhVJKjoMzfLgDtsxENwYQBvRGaHWZkAIPi
pycHnreFiwLVdEWBsRkqYXxtMulhTKGPIZAofDQCbSNvJaOUmzjg
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xFhkKCtmGAcsjdbUzvuSagwZXOnIeJiEyToLRYMfpNDVqBrWQPHl
rIBvERUlnwkYpfxGOZdMVgqbFaAQDWcoCsHiSeXNJKmujTPzyhtL
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gxHUnzZdvqBsPDLFGYkXyMaocbfWimlIEVTCOSKReuwrAQNJhpjt
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aGJzOVQplEvhmZNLirkdHqxTsFewDSYbMtUXRBfynuAgIjPCKocW
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mbsZeGMDyOKivVLxRTzXnhWCugkANoIYcjqapJrSBfdltwUHFQPE
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onZSvKGPihQVtJAUxmXRFqsMlHYCujbTckfaDdpregBOwyWLzENI
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cIYbiSnZwuBTFWsXOfxPQNqoAdzhEpkrCGjeVHtyLRMKgDmvaUlJ

 

[Simmo!]

After all, the thread is titled what lessons we have learned from the Cipher incident so maybe some sober reflection on our collective participation on a board promoting gambling is both timely and required.

Cipher has been accused of fraud. I'm not getting the connection between a problem with gambling and fraud here? Yes I can see they are related given that he alledgedly defrauded a gambler with a gambling program but how is that teaching us "sober reflection on our collective participation on a board promoting gambling"?

I find the winner screenshots thread insidiuous given a disturbingly high number of it's participants have their hand in the player's pocket in one way or another. It is not a thread that has the average player's (gambler's) interests at heart but is driven at the very expense and cost to the player.

Then why read it? Or are you trying to stir up (yet) another "them" and "us" issue with players and affiliates? To suggest that thread is driven by affiliates trying to persuade players to gamble is quite frankly, ridiculous. I can pretty much guarantee that everyone in there is contributing because they like showing off. Nothing more, nothing less

It is the very nature of the winner screenshots thread existence that I find so offensive and entirely inappropriate in the promotion of responsible gaming.

You'd be a fun night out then

Identify which block is predictable and calculate the next row. This should be much easier than predicting the cards at blackjack since in blackjack you only ever get to see the first few cards of the deck.

Can I come back to you on that one GM? Only "Wife Swap" is on.

 

[aka23]

I'll take your word for it.

You don't need to take my word for it. The house edges of online casino games are generally well known and listed on sites such as Wizard of Odds. Once you know the house edge of the game, it's basic math.

I quit for a number of reasons - to create G&C which was always a full time endeavor, because I got tired of chiselling away at BJ with basic strategy having become a routine and mindless, and because all the new WR cropping up made it less easy to win consistently.

Most players on this forum favor Microgaming casinos. Under standard implementation of Microgaming Clearplay/EZ Bonuses, winnnings from bonuses can be cashed out at any point without completing a wagering requirement. The only additional time requirement is waiting for the bonus to be credited to your account.

...and because all the new WR cropping up made it less easy to win consistently... Mostly I just got bored with BJ, I played too much of it. It's entertaining again today since it's been years since I tried to make money at it.

If you must "win consistently", then yes, spending many hours playing a low house edge game/low variance game is the way to go. However, we weren't talking about winning consistently, we were talking about having a player edge over the casino. You still have a player edge with high-risk play, where you don't spend long hours, and don't win consistently. And there are plenty of games that can be played besides BJ. Under standard MG Clearplay/eZ Bonus rules, all casino games are allowed.