Is the rtp percentage confusing us?

[brianmon]

It is slightly if you have the rtp of 95% and say the cycle is however many spins you can do in 100 sessions.1 player doing 100 consecutive sessions from scratch will have somewhere near 95% rtp.If a hundred players play 1 session(1 after the other they will have a random rtp which is my point it's a complete lottery of who wins and loses irrespective of any stated rtp

You're assuming there's a fixed cycle of x number of spins. Which, as far as I'm aware, there isn't
The RTP is calculated from doing millions of test spins. The games aren't designed to hit their RTP over a FIXED number of spins.

The final absolutely exact RTP will only be known when the game is removed from service for the very last time. Because during play, the RTP is always going to fluctuate slightly.

 

[dunover]

The reason I think the pooling theory has to be correct is if you think about it if you were the only person playing a slot that has a rtp of 95% long term you could never win every time the cycle ends you would have 95% of your bankroll and there would be no point in playing.

There is no 'cycle' and it has no end. If there were the games wouldn't be random. You are (whether alone or singly) pulling results from a pool of RNG results which over the long term will pay 96%. Whether you are playing alone or with a hundred others, it makes no difference. Imagine a colossal bag (not my missus) of dried peas which together cover the game's hundreds of thousands of possible reel outcomes/results. You pull one out and put it back in again. If you pulled ALL of them out once and never put them back you'd end up (level stakes) with exactly the theoretical (TRTP) say 96.50% of the game programme and yes, THAT would be a cycle.

As I said though, the result goes back in the bag, hence your chance of getting the same prize very next spin even if 1000x bet. Because of this fact the law of large numbers applies and you need hundreds of thousands or millions of spins to guarantee getting within 0.1% long-term of the TRTP. So say you were playing alone it would simply take the game 100x longer to guarantee hitting that long-term TRTP than it would with 100 players at once. You alone (or any one or more of the other 99 players) begin with exactly the same chance of getting a shit run for 50,000 spins or a massively 'over' personal RTP of say 115% over them. It sounds like you are confusing RTP with variance and random slots with compensated ones.

 

[snorky510238]

You're assuming there's a fixed cycle of x number of spins. Which, as far as I'm aware, there isn't
The RTP is calculated from doing millions of test spins. The games aren't designed to hit their RTP over a FIXED number of spins.

The final absolutely exact RTP will only be known when the game is removed from service for the very last time. Because during play, the RTP is always going to fluctuate slightly.

Ok you say the rtp is going to fluctuate slightly.I would say it's going to fluctuate widely especially on high volatility games.So given that the game at any 1 time could be showing say 82% rtp and there is no end to the cycle if randomly checked how can it be audited propertly?

 

[brianmon]

The

Ok you say the rtp is going to fluctuate slightly.I would say it's going to fluctuate widely especially on high volatility games.So given that the game at any 1 time could be showing say 82% rtp and there is no end to the cycle if randomly checked how can it be audited propertly?

The game may well show 82%. BUT only within the very first, say, 10,000 spins ever played.
But the more it's played the closer it will get to the target RTP.
It's not just one person playing one game at one casino, or even 100 players playing one game at one casino. It's thousands of players playing one game at hundreds of casinos.

I have a 'personal' RTP of 97.44% on DOA, but that's over 275,384 spins over the last 6 months (from slot tracker)
the total spins from everyone on slot Tracker is 1,628,709 and the RTP is 96.51

I also have a 'personal' RTP of 1,097.28% on 'Magic mirror deluxe'. But that's only from 16 spins. because i got a 148x stake win within those 16 spins
But the total number of spins (from slot tracker) is 162,894 and the RTP is 98.2%.
My 1,097% RTP has only made a very very tiny impact on the overall logged RTP, if any impact at all

 

[goatwack]

Ok you say the rtp is going to fluctuate slightly.I would say it's going to fluctuate widely especially on high volatility games.So given that the game at any 1 time could be showing say 82% rtp and there is no end to the cycle if randomly checked how can it be audited propertly?

Oh that one is easy. It involves large brown envelopes stuffed with cash

 

[snorky510238]

Oh that one is easy. It involves large brown envelopes stuffed with cash

Lol I think that is probably not far off the mark

 

[snorky510238]

Ok thanks for your replies everyone I am a lot clearer on the subject now.Still think there are a few grey areas.I mean you all seem to know what you are on about but there's a little contradiction here and there but the gist of it is pretty much the same

 

[trancemonkey]

Ok you say the rtp is going to fluctuate slightly.I would say it's going to fluctuate widely especially on high volatility games.So given that the game at any 1 time could be showing say 82% rtp and there is no end to the cycle if randomly checked how can it be audited propertly?

Come to the Meister Meet in London or PM me if you still don’t get it and I’ll try and explain it more although the guys here have pretty much summed it up...

Auditing takes in to account all games played across all bets... as you play more Games the RTP converges towards the theoretical RTP. When we give Games to customers ee give them information on the volatility of the games and the acceptable ranges for RTP after x number of Games so they can track RTP correctly.

 

[snorky510238]

Come to the Meister Meet in London or PM me if you still don’t get it and I’ll try and explain it more although the guys here have pretty much summed it up...

Auditing takes in to account all games played across all bets... as you play more Games the RTP converges towards the theoretical RTP. When we give Games to customers ee give them information on the volatility of the games and the acceptable ranges for RTP after x number of Games so they can track RTP correctly.

Is there a cycle the rtp is based on is there no end like a couple of people stated?

 

[snorky510238]

Coincidentally out of all the millions of spins that have asked the server for an outcome on bonanza nobody has been lucky enough to be randomly given a "BIGGY" maybe they genuinely forgot to put that pea in the bag.Luck eh if you didn't know know better you'd swear it was fixed.

 

[trancemonkey]

Coincidentally out of all the millions of spins that have asked the server for an outcome on bonanza nobody has been lucky enough to be randomly given a "BIGGY" maybe they genuinely forgot to put that pea in the bag.Luck eh if you didn't know know better you'd swear it was fixed.

Why fixed? There are huge wins on Bonanza on YiuTube. And how do you know the biggest win hasn't come out?

Also for all we know the biggest possible win could be 1 in 100,000,000.... so I may never come out

 

[trancemonkey]

Is there a cycle the rtp is based on is there no end like a couple of people stated?

RTP is measured over an endless number of games - when I'm doing a game we tend to run 4billion+ games. The more games you play the closer to the theoretical RTP the game will get.

 

[snorky510238]

You surely have to admit that measuring anything that is endless is a bit ambiguous.

 

[trancemonkey]

You surely have to admit that measuring anything that is endless is a bit ambiguous.

We are probably talking cross purposes here... we know exactly what the range of the RTP is at certain numbers of games (I.e 10k, 25k, 50k, etc...) and we also know how many games are played on a machine across its lifetime on average. Anyway these are the numbers we use... it's a fair way to do it and it's also the way nearly all regulators and test houses work.

Games RTP is measured endlessly... for the lifetime of the game.

 

[snorky510238]

Why fixed? There are huge wins on Bonanza on YiuTube. And how do you know the biggest win hasn't come out?

Also for all we know the biggest possible win could be 1 in 100,000,000.... so I may never come out

The thing is the biggest possible win will never come out because it's not in there.The biggest win possible is infinite if you consider that the drop downs and multiplier could theoretically go on forever.Of course that will never happen there will be something written in the programme to prevent that.Which tells you it should say limited multiplier.

 

[goatwack]

Slots are a lot like the Infinite Monkey Theorem. Get enough of the furry little fellas to hack away at the keyboard for an infinite amount of time - with a trusty supply of bananas at the ready - and you'll have yourself the complete works of Shakespeare at some point.

In effect we are chimply hoping for a hit that never comes. Like playing Bonanza any day of the week.

 

[snorky510238]

Slots are a lot like the Infinite Monkey Theorem. Get enough of the furry little fellas to hack away at the keyboard for an infinite amount of time - with a trusty supply of bananas at the ready - and you'll have yourself the complete works of Shakespeare at some point.

In effect we are chimply hoping for a hit that never comes. Like playing Bonanza any day of the week.

Brilliant! yes it always comes back to the maths and the programme because we can't argue that with any backed up knowledge.There is a lot of things trancemonkey never mentions I understand he can't but things like how often the bonus should come up how many times the bonus will pay x10,how many will pay x20 etc if you write the programme you would know this he just can't say.

 

[goatwack]

Thing is though, with an infinite cycle you can't really pin an exact RTP percentage on anything, you can only guess the projected number. The spins aren't finite and thusly only approximated.

For all we know, most slots' actual returns are only in the high 80s. And if there is some type of safeguards in the software to prevent the games paying out 101% for years on end, then surely that would take away any element of randomness as we understand it.

You can also be sure if Bonanza paid out through the roof, BTG would be on to it quicker than you can say "Gold"

 

[snorky510238]

Thing is though, with an infinite cycle you can't really pin an exact RTP percentage on anything, you can only guess the projected number. The spins aren't finite and thusly only approximated.

For all we know, most slots' actual returns are only in the high 80s. And if there is some type of safeguards in the software to prevent the games paying out 101% for years on end, then surely that would take away any element of randomness as we understand it.

You can also be sure if Bonanza paid out through the roof, BTG would be on to it quicker than you can say "Gold"

That is what I was trying to say but there are so many believers out there.I mean even if these programmers make the game in total good faith are you tell me things can't be tweaked here and there afterwards and everything still looks normal etc.just imagine tweaking an extra 1% out of bonanza!Not to sniffed at.

 

[trancemonkey]

Thing is though, with an infinite cycle you can't really pin an exact RTP percentage on anything, you can only guess the projected number. The spins aren't finite and thusly only approximated.

For all we know, most slots' actual returns are only in the high 80s. And if there is some type of safeguards in the software to prevent the games paying out 101% for years on end, then surely that would take away any element of randomness as we understand it.

You can also be sure if Bonanza paid out through the roof, BTG would be on to it quicker than you can say "Gold"

The "safeguard" is the maths... if you're at the Meister Meet I'll try and show you something to help you see how RTP works and settles over time...

And with Bonanza... the multiplier is theoretically unlimited. But just because something is theoretical doesn't mean it's going to happen.

 

[trancemonkey]

That is what I was trying to say but there are so many believers out there.I mean even if these programmers make the game in total good faith are you tell me things can't be tweaked here and there afterwards and everything still looks normal etc.just imagine tweaking an extra 1% out of bonanza!Not to sniffed at.

Yeah...I'm telling you things can't be tweaked (legally) after the game has gone through the test lab. We have to checksum the files and at any point the regulator can ask for the files from the server and checksum them against the test lab version. And they do...

 

[snorky510238]

Yeah...I'm telling you things can't be tweaked (legally) after the game has gone through the test lab. We have to checksum the files and at any point the regulator can ask for the files from the server and checksum them against the test lab version. And they do...

The "safeguard" is the maths... if you're at the Meister Meet I'll try and show you something to help you see how RTP works and settles over time...

And with Bonanza... the multiplier is theoretically unlimited. But just because something is theoretical doesn't mean it's going to happen.

The problem is we know it's NOT going to happen.Its the programmers job to make a game look as random as possible.The better the programmer the more random a game will seem but however good they are you won't fool all the people all of the time.The game can only run within the parameters of the programme if it hasn't been put in there it simply can't happen.There are a 1001 things that happen every day that tell you it's not random seeing as bonanza is so topical lets look at some of its faults.The letters G O L D.The countless times G and O crash in on adjacent reels mostly on reels 1 and 2 helping to block off potential wins.This happens far more often than a completely random spin would produce its programmed in to keep players hopeful and interested.(2)we know the letters can appear on any reel but you will never see the same letter appear twice in any 1 spin.(3) the countless times reel 1 and 2 are 8 or 9 symbols deep but amazingly you don't have a win line.(4)You never see a +5 in the base game which tells you the drop downs are made up as it goes along given that fact it has the ability to change the outcome on every single cascade.(5)The letters in the base game never come in the wrong way around L G O for example yet we have already established they are on every reel but they can come in like that when it's in cascade mode.The list is endless and it's not just bonanza.

 

[trancemonkey]

The problem is we know it's NOT going to happen.Its the programmers job to make a game look as random as possible.The better the programmer the more random a game will seem but however good they are you won't fool all the people all of the time.The game can only run within the parameters of the programme if it hasn't been put in there it simply can't happen.There are a 1001 things that happen every day that tell you it's not random seeing as bonanza is so topical lets look at some of its faults.The letters G O L D.The countless times G and O crash in on adjacent reels mostly on reels 1 and 2 helping to block off potential wins.This happens far more often than a completely random spin would produce its programmed in to keep players hopeful and interested.(2)we know the letters can appear on any reel but you will never see the same letter appear twice in any 1 spin.(3) the countless times reel 1 and 2 are 8 or 9 symbols deep but amazingly you don't have a win line.(4)You never see a +5 in the base game which tells you the drop downs are made up as it goes along given that fact it has the ability to change the outcome on every single cascade.(5)The letters in the base game never come in the wrong way around L G O for example yet we have already established they are on every reel but they can come in like that when it's in cascade mode.The list is endless and it's not just bonanza.

Well Bonanza is pretty obvious... each scatter that lands in view is visually seeded with the next letter in the sequence. In other words the GOLD symbols are scatters which just change the letter depending on the sequence. Oddly in most markets you couldn't do that because the regulators would say exactly what you said... and it's misleading the players. It's not wrong in that it's not doing anything dodgy... it's just a visual thing.

Also when we do games with unlimited multipliers, we still have to tell the regulator and test houses and casinos what the maximum liability is. To do this, because there is no theoretical maximum we run 10 billion games and the biggest value from those is the maximum.

That DOES NOT mean you can't win higher than that, but it does mean the chance of getting more is higher than 1 in 10,000,000,000... this is acceptable legally and in my eyes also morally. The game is not capping the maximum win.

 

[interlog]

The problem is we know it's NOT going to happen.Its the programmers job to make a game look as random as possible.The better the programmer the more random a game will seem but however good they are you won't fool all the people all of the time.The game can only run within the parameters of the programme if it hasn't been put in there it simply can't happen.There are a 1001 things that happen every day that tell you it's not random seeing as bonanza is so topical lets look at some of its faults.The letters G O L D.The countless times G and O crash in on adjacent reels mostly on reels 1 and 2 helping to block off potential wins.This happens far more often than a completely random spin would produce its programmed in to keep players hopeful and interested.(2)we know the letters can appear on any reel but you will never see the same letter appear twice in any 1 spin.(3) the countless times reel 1 and 2 are 8 or 9 symbols deep but amazingly you don't have a win line.(4)You never see a +5 in the base game which tells you the drop downs are made up as it goes along given that fact it has the ability to change the outcome on every single cascade.(5)The letters in the base game never come in the wrong way around L G O for example yet we have already established they are on every reel but they can come in like that when it's in cascade mode.The list is endless and it's not just bonanza.

I have had Gold+5 drop in a couple of times without the cascade. Very rare mind.

As to scatters glued to certain reels. Try playing Immortal Romance or even worse Mystic Dreams!

 

[trancemonkey]

The problem is we know it's NOT going to happen.Its the programmers job to make a game look as random as possible.The better the programmer the more random a game will seem but however good they are you won't fool all the people all of the time.The game can only run within the parameters of the programme if it hasn't been put in there it simply can't happen..

Here's the simplest example of how bonanza works...

Get a coin and toss it...
If it lands of heads increase a multiplier in your head by one. Now keep tossing the coin until you get tails. Every time you get heads though, increase your multiplier by one.

As soon as you get tails, start the cycle again.

Do this cycle ten times.

What you're doing here is treating each cycle as a spin+cascade on Bonanza...

If you want, repeat that whole process 10 times. See what the highest multiplier is you reach after 10 "free spins".

Now of course in theory that coin could land on heads 100 times in a row right? It's possible. You're not capping it or programming it to miss... but the chance of that happening is so small that it will never happen.

And this is how Bonanza and other games can claim to be unlimited - because theoretically they are. They work the same way as the coin method I've just told you. They are not stopping you getting anything... but statistically it's extremely unlikely to get over (I'm guessing here) 30x. And to get over 40x is probably never ever going to happen.

Ill repeat - Just because it is possible doesnt mean it will happen.