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Is the rtp percentage confusing us?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by snorky510238, Jan 19, 2018.

    Jan 19, 2018
  1. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    Apologies if this is old hat but I am new on here and I have been posting a lot of things in an area they don't belong so thought it's time to try my own.The reason I am asking the question is that I find it difficult to understand how a slot is given an expected rtp unless you are given the length of time this is based on.I assume that the slot deviates within set parameters and over a certain period returns the said percentage(Like I said not knowing the time scale is the how long is a piece of string scenario)Let's assume the slot has a 90% rtp.I am going to use extreme examples to highlight my point.(this is only how I see/assume it works and could be completely wrong)A casino has game A.Everyones money who plays game A goes into a communal pot where any winnings are paid from.So if you were the only player to ever play it at the point the cycle completes you would have 90% of your initial bankroll(in theory)because you are the only 1 who has put money in the pot.Now lets scale it right down for simplicity and say the cycle for the rtp is 5 days and use 5 players(I know this is totally extreme but it keeps the idea and the maths simple)each player starts with a £100 bankroll and over the 5 days players 1,2,3 and 4 lose their £100 without a single win(must of been playing bonanza)player 5 also plays £99 without a win but on the last spin wins £450 and withdraws it.Its the end of the cycle and the rtp is spot on but all 5 players have achieved nowhere near a 90% return.The point being in truth there will be far more players playing the game at any 1 time and the cycle could be endless therefore you will get very volatile statistics because for everyone that wins the the percentage is kept on track by the fact others lose.The fact the rtp is 90% is of no consequence because it doesn't come with any guarantee to you personally it just means it pays back 90% of what it takes.What I am saying is you could sit on that slot forever and a day and never get close to 90% if your unlucky.Like I said its only my personal opinion and I could be totally wrong I just like putting ideas out there and see what others think
     
    angelic likes this.
  2. Jan 20, 2018
  3. dionysus

    dionysus can turn wine into water CAG MM

    Occupation:
    n/a
    Location:
    I'm a Canucklehead
    ouch
    page/paragraph breaks are your friend

    to make a quick point it doesn't matter if you have 1 or 1000 players but without going into a lengthy discussion because you can find this discussed in numerous places throughout the site...I will let you know that the search tool is a great function for finding answers to questions

    another player may address them or barring that put up a quick couple redirect links for you.
     
  4. Jan 20, 2018
  5. goatwack

    goatwack Calendar Time for Buddy CAG

    Occupation:
    Stuntman
    Location:
    Londonia
    In BTG's case, players 1,2,3,4 & 5 put money into a pot and..........that's it. :eek::eek::eek:
     
  6. Jan 20, 2018
  7. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    Of course it matters how many players there are as soon as there are more than 1 you are essentially playing a lottery because you now can't say what your personal rtp is.If someone hits a big win another players rtp will be compromised.Think of it like the lottery if there are only 10 players your chance of winning a prize is quite high but the prize will be relatively small because there isn't a big pot of money(based on every one have the same number of tickets.You can only have 1 spin at a time so that's fair)and your rtp probably wouldn't be affected that much but when you have 1000 players the swings will become greater.The potential for a bigger win increases(a lot more money in the pot) but your chance of winning it decreases.It is the same as a lottery saying we payout in prize money 90% of ticket sales.It doesn't guarantee you anything it just means 90% is paid back out to whoever gets lucky.
     
  8. Jan 20, 2018
  9. dionysus

    dionysus can turn wine into water CAG MM

    Occupation:
    n/a
    Location:
    I'm a Canucklehead
    on a general online video slot it doesn't matter a fig what another player hits or not...it has zero bearing on your session.
    if the guy before me hits 200 bonus rounds in a half hour and pulls out 200 k it has 0 impact on my session.
     
  10. Jan 20, 2018
  11. goatwack

    goatwack Calendar Time for Buddy CAG

    Occupation:
    Stuntman
    Location:
    Londonia
    I'm still unsure as to the communal player pooling theory, I was always of the impression it didn't matter too much. Say I was the only person on the planet playing DOA on a desert island, I'd still see those wildlines averaged out as they are now. (ie every 500 bonuses :mad:)

    But who's to say how companies 'regulate' their projected RTP, I'd like to think (pray) that it's individual player based and not part of some greater plan. Could be wrong :cool:
     
  12. Jan 20, 2018
  13. slotmaster

    slotmaster NOT Slotting it up!

    Occupation:
    Being great and stressed
    Location:
    stressville



    I love you Goatwack!:cheers:
     
    goatwack likes this.
  14. Jan 20, 2018
  15. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    The reason I think the pooling theory has to be correct is if you think about it if you were the only person playing a slot that has a rtp of 95% long term you could never win every time the cycle ends you would have 95% of your bankroll and there would be no point in playing.
     
    goatwack likes this.
  16. Jan 20, 2018
  17. goatwack

    goatwack Calendar Time for Buddy CAG

    Occupation:
    Stuntman
    Location:
    Londonia
    Yes, it would be quite boring but you'll have massive gameplay spikes along the way, dependent on the variance of the slot. What most of us have convinced ourselves of is that we'll be the ones to get that life-changing hit along the way, after which we can just 'walk away' from the slot.

    Both are unlikely to happen :oops::(
     
    snorky510238 likes this.
  18. Jan 20, 2018
  19. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    Yeah it's only my theory.I just think when someone hits like that £38,000 on doa he obviously I hope hadn't invested anywhere near that amount into the slot and if he never spends another penny on the slot other players % has to be compromised or already has been to keep the rtp inline could be wrong can't think of another logical explanation.
     
    goatwack likes this.
  20. Jan 20, 2018
  21. dionysus

    dionysus can turn wine into water CAG MM

    Occupation:
    n/a
    Location:
    I'm a Canucklehead
    my rtp doesn't have to be compromised or adjusted for his win...because of rhe slots volatility numerous players could receive let's say a 23% rtp which accounts for his monster win.
    the slot doesn't go..hmm..I'd BETTER give someone a lower rtp to offset that huge win...it's just the nature of the slot that some win some lose and because of the less than 100% the casino ultimately always wins.

    I've flagged trance to this thread. he can better explain it and doesn't have to use a phone kb lol like I do and i can't be arsed typing this slowly and poorly.
     
    trancemonkey likes this.
  22. Jan 20, 2018
  23. brianmon

    brianmon Meister Member webby mm4

    Location:
    uk
    But that wasn't a particularly big win (2111x stake), considering he was playing at £18 a spin. There are people who play at those stakes, most if whom will lose 'naturally', rather than the game having to compensate for anything. So everything will balance out at some point
     
    dionysus likes this.
  24. Jan 20, 2018
  25. trancemonkey

    trancemonkey Meister Member

    Occupation:
    Games Producer
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Should I explain this... only to be disbelieved? Ok let's try..

    A slot games RTP is calculated over billions of games so that the exact RTP is known.

    Now that does NOT mean the game will not achieve very close to this RTP in a lot less games.

    We have that we call standard deviation and volatility. Both if these numbers give us an idea of how long the game will take to be within a certain range of the target RTP.

    Slot maths are all worked out on averages. So while a casino might not "like" someone winning 2500x in DOA within a day of the game going live, as far as the maths is concerned it doesn't matter one jot. And of course they know that if people keep playing the game they will get it back anyway...

    This is because we would know that on average a win of that side will happen say 1 in 100,000 games. The law of averages and the law of large numbers means that the game will overtime make that back naturally (it's running at <100% right).

    Put simply the more people playing the game the less volatile (for the casino) it is. This is because it is unlikely that everyone is going to hit 2500x in one day... it's statistically possible but extremely unlikely. So the casino is playing a risk game... the more players you get the lower the risk just simply down to averages.

    So put simply we don't need to compensate or cheat or rig because the maths dictates that on average we know exactly how much of the cash played through the game it will keep.

    This is why all the conspiracy theories people have make no sense... the house always wins. If you've won big chances are someone else has lost... naturally. It's maths. Statistics.
     
    angelic, goatwack and dionysus like this.
  26. Jan 20, 2018
  27. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    That's exactly what I am saying someone somewhere has paid for it based on the fact the slot won't pay out more than it takes over a given cycle
     
  28. Jan 20, 2018
  29. brianmon

    brianmon Meister Member webby mm4

    Location:
    uk
    No, The game hasn't 'given' him the win, because other people have lost enough previously for it to be able to afford to do so.
    And also the game isn't going to deliberately stop anyone else from winning in the future, to make the money back.
    Someone could, theoretically, get an even bigger win 10 minutes after he won that £38,000.
    But over time, that money will get taken back just from the number of losing bonus rounds. The chance of a wildline is something like 1 in 500 bonus rounds.
    So the game doesn't need to make a conscious effort to recover the money.
     
    trancemonkey and dionysus like this.
  30. Jan 20, 2018
  31. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    I should have said paid for it or will pay for it in the future
     
  32. Jan 20, 2018
  33. goatwack

    goatwack Calendar Time for Buddy CAG

    Occupation:
    Stuntman
    Location:
    Londonia
    Other players have indirectly paid for a good hit, through sheer participation and becoming a 'statistic'. Certainly not by funding the hits themselves :cool:
     
    snorky510238 and trancemonkey like this.
  34. Jan 20, 2018
  35. trancemonkey

    trancemonkey Meister Member

    Occupation:
    Games Producer
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Losing games pay for winning games. Simple maths. But there is no compensation going on. A game doesn't have to take money to pay it out... it's just that over a long period of time thethen of course it will take more than it pays out ..
     
  36. Jan 20, 2018
  37. snorky510238

    snorky510238 Chief glockenspiel maker

    Location:
    Uk
    Yes that's what I am saying that's why I have the communal pot theory.What I am saying is just because a slot has a rtp of 95% that means nothing to an individual player.Some players will achieve higher and some lower your own personal rtp is pot luck.
     
    goatwack likes this.
  38. Jan 20, 2018
  39. goatwack

    goatwack Calendar Time for Buddy CAG

    Occupation:
    Stuntman
    Location:
    Londonia
    Who the hell really knows. Just press 'spin' already :laugh::thumbsup:
     
    angelic, dionysus and trancemonkey like this.

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