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Is RTP absolute bull?

The massive elephant in the room is RTP itself , as far as I can tell it’s completely self regulated - which in itself should raise eyebrows. Who decided that rtp was decided over 1 billion + spins ? It’s completely unrealistic . That obviously never happens . I think all games/slots so go through independent testing at a max 100,000 spins . From that get a RTP around 94-96% . What are the chances ….
 
Play DOA3 on Slots Temple (around 96% rtp I believe), then go play it at one of the many casinos running the 91% rtp version... I know the game is ultra high variance but the difference is staggering.

Same goes for Reactoonz - at Slots Temple (who are the benchmark since they always run the highest rtp) the game is pretty enjoyable. Switch over the (for example) 888 at around 91.5% and: dead spin, dead spin, dead spin...
 
The massive elephant in the room is RTP itself , as far as I can tell it’s completely self regulated - which in itself should raise eyebrows. Who decided that rtp was decided over 1 billion + spins ? It’s completely unrealistic . That obviously never happens . I think all games/slots so go through independent testing at a max 100,000 spins . From that get a RTP around 94-96% . What are the chances ….
RTP is actually just a set of rules that determine how winning combinations are paid out. Take roulette as a simple example: if a correct number pays 37x, RTP is 100%. European roulette pays 36x, so RTP is 36/37 = 97.3%. If it paid 38x, RTP would be 102.7%.

The tricky part is: if you don't know the rules you're playing by, you need to play for a while to figure them out. And here the question is — how long exactly, and what does it depend on?

If you dig a little deeper, it turns out you need around 400,000 spins to verify RTP with 95% confidence — and that number depends on volatility. In roulette, if a number comes up once every 100 spins instead of 37, you'd need millions of spins. But for even-money bets like red/black, far fewer. The same logic applies to slots.

Take Dead or Alive 3 (volatility std dev ~10 per the official game page): to confirm RTP is 96% and not 92%, you need 386,410 spins.

To verify the precise figure of 96.03%: 960,365 spins for 1% precision, 3,841,459 for 0.1%, and 38,414,588,207 for 0.01%.

Compare that to Starburst (volatility ~3.1, RTP 96.08%): 92,292 spins for 2% precision, 369,165 for 1%, 36,916,420 for 0.1%, and 3,691,641,927 for 0.01% — roughly 10x fewer than DOA3.

Now imagine trying to verify RTP for a slot with standard deviation above 40, like Dead or Alive 2 with the high noon saloon feature, or some NoLimit City titles.

If this is interesting — like this post and I'll write a more detailed and accessible breakdown. Follow me on social media so you don't miss it 😊

P.S. The numbers above are calculated using the Central Limit Theorem — feel free to check my math.
 

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