Rusty
Banned User - repetitive flaming
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2006
- Location
- Manchester UK
Originally Posted by Rusty View Post
Enzo,
No one is arguing that as a very basic calculation prior to history the formula is correct the problem is that what I infer from your original post is that the ev on deposit 10 is 405 where as the way I see it, that is the ev over 10 such deposits prior to history and deposit 10 has an ev equal to all the others.
As I pointed out the ev is made up from the accumulation of the expected ev of 10 deposits. The fact that 9 deposits came in well below expected ev does not magically increase the ev 10 fold of the final deposit.
KK
I don't think you read Enzo's last post before commenting, did you?
Originally Posted by 3Dice View Post
Again, I'm not predicting the future. I'm not saying he lost 9 times so he will win. I'm describing something completely in the past - or in the future. Take your pick. Its just a game that pays on average 1 in 10 bets. It's a reel of fortune with 10 spots. 9 have no prize, one pays 9.5 times bet.
All I say is that on a machine like that, if you always play with bonus, you will lose 9 times and cashout about $850 1 time ($855 = $500 + 10*$35.5 to be correct). That's an average. The win could be the first session, any session inbetween or the last one. You could have a set of 10 where you don't win and you could have a set of 10 where you win more than once. On average however you will win 1 in 10 sessions on a game like that. On average you will make $350 every 10 sessions if you play a game with that variance following the strategy described.
KK
AVERAGE is the key word; all theoretical EV calculations can only be done with averages... unless you have crystal balls!
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Yes I read it but I am saying you can not apply past ev to future ev which is how I read Enzo's original post. There is no such thing as past ev and you make this mistake in your next post.
The ev on even a single deposit does not stay static as you play through it.
If I deposit 50 with 50 bonus with 95% theoretical RTP I have an ev of 45 on 1xwr before I begin to wager. (using Enzo's 10 spins 1 in 10 chance of win 95 at 10 units per spin)
If I wager 90 without a win my ev is not still 45 because that would imply 100% expectation of a win and we know the odds of hitting are only 10%
The actual ev at this point on original deposit is now a negative value.
I would say -40.5 but that calculation is probably too simplistic because I am not sure how to incorporate variance into the equation.
Therefore my argument is that any ev calculation can only be applied to future events and it would be incorrect to include past ev into future ev calculations.
You can not calculate I made 9 deposits at 50 with 50 bonus and lost all but my expected value overall on my next deposit of 50D+50B is 450 (or 405 if you calculate that) unless you are predicting the slot will have exact 95% return over this exact playthrough.
Enzo,
No one is arguing that as a very basic calculation prior to history the formula is correct the problem is that what I infer from your original post is that the ev on deposit 10 is 405 where as the way I see it, that is the ev over 10 such deposits prior to history and deposit 10 has an ev equal to all the others.
As I pointed out the ev is made up from the accumulation of the expected ev of 10 deposits. The fact that 9 deposits came in well below expected ev does not magically increase the ev 10 fold of the final deposit.
KK
I don't think you read Enzo's last post before commenting, did you?
Originally Posted by 3Dice View Post
Again, I'm not predicting the future. I'm not saying he lost 9 times so he will win. I'm describing something completely in the past - or in the future. Take your pick. Its just a game that pays on average 1 in 10 bets. It's a reel of fortune with 10 spots. 9 have no prize, one pays 9.5 times bet.
All I say is that on a machine like that, if you always play with bonus, you will lose 9 times and cashout about $850 1 time ($855 = $500 + 10*$35.5 to be correct). That's an average. The win could be the first session, any session inbetween or the last one. You could have a set of 10 where you don't win and you could have a set of 10 where you win more than once. On average however you will win 1 in 10 sessions on a game like that. On average you will make $350 every 10 sessions if you play a game with that variance following the strategy described.
KK
AVERAGE is the key word; all theoretical EV calculations can only be done with averages... unless you have crystal balls!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes I read it but I am saying you can not apply past ev to future ev which is how I read Enzo's original post. There is no such thing as past ev and you make this mistake in your next post.
The ev on even a single deposit does not stay static as you play through it.
If I deposit 50 with 50 bonus with 95% theoretical RTP I have an ev of 45 on 1xwr before I begin to wager. (using Enzo's 10 spins 1 in 10 chance of win 95 at 10 units per spin)
If I wager 90 without a win my ev is not still 45 because that would imply 100% expectation of a win and we know the odds of hitting are only 10%
The actual ev at this point on original deposit is now a negative value.
I would say -40.5 but that calculation is probably too simplistic because I am not sure how to incorporate variance into the equation.
Therefore my argument is that any ev calculation can only be applied to future events and it would be incorrect to include past ev into future ev calculations.
You can not calculate I made 9 deposits at 50 with 50 bonus and lost all but my expected value overall on my next deposit of 50D+50B is 450 (or 405 if you calculate that) unless you are predicting the slot will have exact 95% return over this exact playthrough.
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