Horse Racing & Tips Thread

4.20P hmmmm. Strange market mover here. Blood Eagle, 50/1 last night, now best priced 6/4, couple of firms going evens, but 5.5 (9/2) on Betfair Exchange, and while it's had money, it's not a massive amount. Racing post comments are 'Flat winner for Andrew Balding (1m4f); has shown nothing whatsoever over hurdles so far.'

His other runners

100 Southwell - Notnow Seamus - Was 22/1 but is now 11/8.
203 Southwell - Perfect Predator - Was 12/1 but is now Evens.
340 Kelso - Getaman - Was 14/1 but is now 11/8
340 Kelso - The Gold Bug - Has stayed roughly the same price, and is drifting slightly.
 
4.20P hmmmm. Strange market mover here. Blood Eagle, 50/1 last night, now best priced 6/4, couple of firms going evens, but 5.5 (9/2) on Betfair Exchange, and while it's had money, it's not a massive amount. Racing post comments are 'Flat winner for Andrew Balding (1m4f); has shown nothing whatsoever over hurdles so far.'

His other runners

100 Southwell - Notnow Seamus - Was 22/1 but is now 11/8.
203 Southwell - Perfect Predator - Was 12/1 but is now Evens.
340 Kelso - Getaman - Was 14/1 but is now 11/8
340 Kelso - The Gold Bug - Has stayed roughly the same price, and is drifting slightly.
That is a very strange one. The trainer himself has basically said that they are all more or less donkeys when asked for comment this morning?
 
That is a very strange one. The trainer himself has basically said that they are all more or less donkeys when asked for comment this morning?
I know, I saw that, it's hard to tell whats a real gamble these days without looking closely at the Betfair Trading volumes, and even then it's more going from what you know rather than see.

For example, 1.00 Not Now Seamus currently trading at 5.0 on BF, has been matched at odds of 7-28 but only for pennies. £22k traded as opposed to 14k on the favourite. That suggests most the money has been people trading against the bookies, ie backing at say 10/1, laying at 6.0 to tie in a profit, rather than a gamble and people backing it to win, especially when the favourite is solid and has hardly moved in price on Betfair, where, really, it should have drifted with that sort of money against it.

Perfect Predator a similar story, trading at 5.2, but masses more trades then the second and third favourites, Predator's price is too high based on them than if it were a real gamble.

Getaman, is again similar, but if one of them was a proper gamble and expected to win, looking at the figures (and price, currently 3.2) I would say it were this one.

Blood Eagle, same. Three times the money as the favourite, yet a higher price.

The trainer will be fucked if they all win, especially after his comments this morning.

I can see why people might think at least a couple might win, been racing out the back on heavy ground. Better today, headgear on, but really they would all have to show a lot more than they have so far.
 
I know, I saw that, it's hard to tell whats a real gamble these days without looking closely at the Betfair Trading volumes, and even then it's more going from what you know rather than see.

For example, 1.00 Not Now Seamus currently trading at 5.0 on BF, has been matched at odds of 7-28 but only for pennies. £22k traded as opposed to 14k on the favourite. That suggests most the money has been people trading against the bookies, ie backing at say 10/1, laying at 6.0 to tie in a profit, rather than a gamble and people backing it to win, especially when the favourite is solid and has hardly moved in price on Betfair, where, really, it should have drifted with that sort of money against it.

Perfect Predator a similar story, trading at 5.2, but masses more trades then the second and third favourites, Predator's price is too high based on them than if it were a real gamble.

Getaman, is again similar, but if one of them was a proper gamble and expected to win, looking at the figures (and price, currently 3.2) I would say it were this one.

Blood Eagle, same. Three times the money as the favourite, yet a higher price.

The trainer will be fucked if they all win, especially after his comments this morning.

I can see why people might think at least a couple might win, been racing out the back on heavy ground. Better today, headgear on, but really they would all have to show a lot more than they have so far.
I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole but I will be watching with interest how they get on. If the first wins then I suspect the money will pile on the others.
Very poor racing today for an ew lover so I have just used a free £5 in Skybet to place a £4.80 on this

LUCKY 15 EW

1 - Ahead Of The Field @ 12/1
13.55 Navan
Mon 14:55
12 - Sideshift @ 4/1
14.55 Navan
Mon 16:30
8 - Mc Alpine @ 17/2
16.30 Navan - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
Mon 17:00
18 - Danegeld @ 15/2
17.00 Navan - Paying 5 Places instead of 4

Then a small one with PP

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

8. Robin Des Smoke
7/2
22nd Mar PLUMPTON 13:45 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 4f 114y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
2. Pounding Poet
7/1
22nd Mar SOUTHWELL 15:03 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f 88y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
6. Robsam
9/1
22nd Mar SOUTHWELL 15:33 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 60y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places
1. Joie De Vivre
13/2
22nd Mar KELSO 15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 4f 189y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
 
Some dodgy goings on there like.
First one, pulled up, and was being chased along from the start. Drifted to 5/1 at one point, SP 4/1
2nd one, drifted to 10/1 SP, second last, beaten 38 lengths.
The next one will be interesting as it's the only one it looked like there was any real money for, Getaman in the 3.40, but thats drifted from the earlier 6/5 to 7/2 already.
 
Some dodgy goings on there like.
First one, pulled up, and was being chased along from the start. Drifted to 5/1 at one point, SP 4/1
2nd one, drifted to 10/1 SP, second last, beaten 38 lengths.
The next one will be interesting as it's the only one it looked like there was any real money for, Getaman in the 3.40, but thats drifted from the earlier 6/5 to 7/2 already.
I can not see the benefit of any manipulation that may be going on?

My first romped home after quite a gamble on it. I got 12/1 and it won at 5/1 :)
 
I can not see the benefit of any manipulation that may be going on?

My first romped home after quite a gamble on it. I got 12/1 and it won at 5/1 :)
Manipulating the markets. Could be that they were going to win, but others got hold of the info and they couldn't get on at the right price so left it for another day, few reasons it could have been a plot but didn't go ahead. After his comments this morning it was obvious they weren't going to win, as if they had, he would have had some extremely difficult questions to answer. Be interesting to see how they run over the next few tries.

I really like Sean's in the next, Only The Bold, got 7/4 this morning, now 11/10.
 
Pretty poor racing today

2.20W Messire Des Obeaux should win this as he seems a class above everything else in the race, been running in and winnning much better races than the others, can ignore his 4th in a group 1 last time out as the ground was heavy, but prior to that his form is massively ahead of anything else in the race. 5/6 - not going to bankrupt the bookies, but I have him down as around a 1/2 shot.

2.35H Ajero 10/11

2.42T Grandads Cottage 8/11 should be able to reverse placings with Time to Tinker with a 6lb turn round in the weights.

Not the most inspiring bet, but pays around 5.5/1
 
Pretty poor racing today

2.20W Messire Des Obeaux should win this as he seems a class above everything else in the race, been running in and winnning much better races than the others, can ignore his 4th in a group 1 last time out as the ground was heavy, but prior to that his form is massively ahead of anything else in the race. 5/6 - not going to bankrupt the bookies, but I have him down as around a 1/2 shot.

2.35H Ajero 10/11

2.42T Grandads Cottage 8/11 should be able to reverse placings with Time to Tinker with a 6lb turn round in the weights.

Not the most inspiring bet, but pays around 5.5/1
Its not the greatest racing today but I've managed to stick a few small ones on. I couldn't find 4 for a lucky 15 in Ireland so I've avoided there.

This is one of my bets. Good luck :)

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

6. First Assembly
6/1
23rd Mar HUNTINGDON 13:00 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 7f 129y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
2. Gentlemans Dream
11/4
23rd Mar HUNTINGDON 13:35 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 0f 104y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
3. Sound Of Music
13/2
23rd Mar HUNTINGDON 15:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 1f 10y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
4. Vue Cavaliere
7/1
23rd Mar TAUNTON 15:17 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 2f 40y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds
 
Lincoln Saturday. Think Brunch has a really good chance here. First runner for Michael Dodds since 2011, despite only being an hour away, when he won it. Currently 16/1 with Hills (17.52/1 boosted odds) he is almost certain to be lower on Saturday, as is only 11/1-12/1 elsewhere. If nothing else, an opportunity for a lay as I expect him to be closer to 8/1 on the day.
 
Lincoln Saturday. Think Brunch has a really good chance here. First runner for Michael Dodds since 2011, despite only being an hour away, when he won it. Currently 16/1 with Hills (17.52/1 boosted odds) he is almost certain to be lower on Saturday, as is only 11/1-12/1 elsewhere. If nothing else, an opportunity for a lay as I expect him to be closer to 8/1 on the day.
I quite like Grove Ferry as a decent ew shot but I will wait until closer to the off before deciding.
I've just had a nice touch at Cork which has given me a nice war chest for the next 3 days plus I am waiting for Just a slip in the next at Sedgefield to complete another lucky 15

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way
P
11. James Fort
3/1
25th Mar CORK 15:30 2M 4F HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
15:30 25 March 2021
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
W
9. Just Another Lady
8/1 9/1
25th Mar CORK 16:05 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
16:05 25 March 2021
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
Rule 4: 5p Deduction
Best odds
V
2. Street Value
4/1
25th Mar CORK 16:35 3M HCAP HURDLE 3m - Each Way
16:35 25 March 2021
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 2 Places
Rule 4: 45p Deduction
Best odds
W
6. Hilltop Supreme
5/1 9/1
25th Mar CORK 17:05 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
17:05 25 March 2021
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
Rule 4: 5p Deduction
Best odds
 
This is one of my lucky 15's today. This evening I like the look of Fashion Free 6.45 Newcastle EW Good luck if your having a punt :thumbsup:

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

11. Cape Greco
17/2
26th Mar LINGFIELD 14:50 HANDICAP 1m 0f 1y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places
7. Diamond State
7/1
26th Mar MUSSELBURGH 15:05 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 0f 85y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
11. Love Baileys
8/1
26th Mar LINGFIELD 15:25 HANDICAP 0m 7f 1y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
10. Millie The Minx
4/1
26th Mar MUSSELBURGH 16:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 3f 171y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
1. Sidi Ismael
11/2
26th Mar MUSSELBURGH 16:45 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 3f 171y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds
 
Posting this now in case I forget to post in the morning.

In the Lincoln (3.10 Donc) I have Ouzo in my notebook for quite a while.

Goes well fresh, was second first run last season.
Wont mind the trip and I really liked the way he moved his last run of last season when winning at York.

As always the race is wide open but as each way pokes go I am go in on it.

25/1 6 places PP
22/1 7 places skybet (remember though,they don't do BOG,whereas PP is BOG from 8am).
 
There has been a lot of races to choose from but I eventually got there. I also quite fancied Home Before Dusk in the 235 but I had to stop somewhere. This is my main bet for this afternoon. Good luck all :)

Lucky 31 (x62) Each Way

3. Father Of Jazz
7/1
27th Mar DONCASTER 14:00 EVENT 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
14:00 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

14. Artistic Rifles
7/1
27th Mar DONCASTER 14:35 HANDICAP 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
10. Grove Ferry
20/1
27th Mar DONCASTER 15:10 HANDICAP 1m 0f 0y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 6 Places
6. Vanity Affair
13/2
27th Mar DONCASTER 16:55 APPRENTICE HANDICAP 1m 2f 43y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
7. Charlie Arthur
11/2
27th Mar DONCASTER 17:25 APPRENTICE HANDICAP 1m 2f 43y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds
 
If Jonbon is half as good as the stable think, he will win the 5.45 Newbury, and I'm amazed he's odds against, although only 6/5.

Ones I like today

2.05M Panadol at 4/1 should win this *disclaimer, I do terrible here
2.00D Montatham 7/2 (Qaysar would be my longshot in this race)
2.15K Master The Stars 8/1 EW
3.45D Just Frank 9/2

Still like Brunch to be placed or win the 3.10, and i looked at Graphite last night when it was 100/1 and thought I would have £2.50 EW on it, but it's now 22/1 best price, so screw that.....guaranteed it will win now :(

Good luck today
 
If Jonbon is half as good as the stable think, he will win the 5.45 Newbury, and I'm amazed he's odds against, although only 6/5.
To be fair it is a very strong bumper as ordinary bumpers go.

The profile is unreal though. Full brother to Douvan. Won PTP with ease and changed hands for over half a million I believe. The second in that PTP which he beat by a long way has since placed twice in races under rules for Gary Moore.
Shouldn't mind the ground. Douvan never struggled on G/S.


Probably a watching brief today but a good performance and watch how he'll appear at the head of the market for every novice hurdle at next years festival!
 
To be fair it is a very strong bumper as ordinary bumpers go.

The profile is unreal though. Full brother to Douvan. Won PTP with ease and changed hands for over half a million I believe. The second in that PTP which he beat by a long way has since placed twice in races under rules for Gary Moore.
Shouldn't mind the ground. Douvan never struggled on G/S.


Probably a watching brief today but a good performance and watch how he'll appear at the head of the market for every novice hurdle at next years festival!
Bloody hell man after yours and Col's write up I have already put my pen through my bet on Petrossian :(
 

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