- Joined
- Feb 11, 2013
- Location
- Bonnie Scotland!
Did a few high odds horses as i turned 3quid into 12 on blackjack. So 8 quid of those bets cost me nothingThe Blackmore bet seems like a pretty good bet. Good luck with yours Dave
Did a few high odds horses as i turned 3quid into 12 on blackjack. So 8 quid of those bets cost me nothingThe Blackmore bet seems like a pretty good bet. Good luck with yours Dave
That is a very strange one. The trainer himself has basically said that they are all more or less donkeys when asked for comment this morning?4.20P hmmmm. Strange market mover here. Blood Eagle, 50/1 last night, now best priced 6/4, couple of firms going evens, but 5.5 (9/2) on Betfair Exchange, and while it's had money, it's not a massive amount. Racing post comments are 'Flat winner for Andrew Balding (1m4f); has shown nothing whatsoever over hurdles so far.'
His other runners
100 Southwell - Notnow Seamus - Was 22/1 but is now 11/8.
203 Southwell - Perfect Predator - Was 12/1 but is now Evens.
340 Kelso - Getaman - Was 14/1 but is now 11/8
340 Kelso - The Gold Bug - Has stayed roughly the same price, and is drifting slightly.
I know, I saw that, it's hard to tell whats a real gamble these days without looking closely at the Betfair Trading volumes, and even then it's more going from what you know rather than see.That is a very strange one. The trainer himself has basically said that they are all more or less donkeys when asked for comment this morning?
I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole but I will be watching with interest how they get on. If the first wins then I suspect the money will pile on the others.I know, I saw that, it's hard to tell whats a real gamble these days without looking closely at the Betfair Trading volumes, and even then it's more going from what you know rather than see.
For example, 1.00 Not Now Seamus currently trading at 5.0 on BF, has been matched at odds of 7-28 but only for pennies. £22k traded as opposed to 14k on the favourite. That suggests most the money has been people trading against the bookies, ie backing at say 10/1, laying at 6.0 to tie in a profit, rather than a gamble and people backing it to win, especially when the favourite is solid and has hardly moved in price on Betfair, where, really, it should have drifted with that sort of money against it.
Perfect Predator a similar story, trading at 5.2, but masses more trades then the second and third favourites, Predator's price is too high based on them than if it were a real gamble.
Getaman, is again similar, but if one of them was a proper gamble and expected to win, looking at the figures (and price, currently 3.2) I would say it were this one.
Blood Eagle, same. Three times the money as the favourite, yet a higher price.
The trainer will be fucked if they all win, especially after his comments this morning.
I can see why people might think at least a couple might win, been racing out the back on heavy ground. Better today, headgear on, but really they would all have to show a lot more than they have so far.
I can not see the benefit of any manipulation that may be going on?Some dodgy goings on there like.
First one, pulled up, and was being chased along from the start. Drifted to 5/1 at one point, SP 4/1
2nd one, drifted to 10/1 SP, second last, beaten 38 lengths.
The next one will be interesting as it's the only one it looked like there was any real money for, Getaman in the 3.40, but thats drifted from the earlier 6/5 to 7/2 already.
Manipulating the markets. Could be that they were going to win, but others got hold of the info and they couldn't get on at the right price so left it for another day, few reasons it could have been a plot but didn't go ahead. After his comments this morning it was obvious they weren't going to win, as if they had, he would have had some extremely difficult questions to answer. Be interesting to see how they run over the next few tries.I can not see the benefit of any manipulation that may be going on?
My first romped home after quite a gamble on it. I got 12/1 and it won at 5/1
Its not the greatest racing today but I've managed to stick a few small ones on. I couldn't find 4 for a lucky 15 in Ireland so I've avoided there.Pretty poor racing today
2.20W Messire Des Obeaux should win this as he seems a class above everything else in the race, been running in and winnning much better races than the others, can ignore his 4th in a group 1 last time out as the ground was heavy, but prior to that his form is massively ahead of anything else in the race. 5/6 - not going to bankrupt the bookies, but I have him down as around a 1/2 shot.
2.35H Ajero 10/11
2.42T Grandads Cottage 8/11 should be able to reverse placings with Time to Tinker with a 6lb turn round in the weights.
Not the most inspiring bet, but pays around 5.5/1
I quite like Grove Ferry as a decent ew shot but I will wait until closer to the off before deciding.Lincoln Saturday. Think Brunch has a really good chance here. First runner for Michael Dodds since 2011, despite only being an hour away, when he won it. Currently 16/1 with Hills (17.52/1 boosted odds) he is almost certain to be lower on Saturday, as is only 11/1-12/1 elsewhere. If nothing else, an opportunity for a lay as I expect him to be closer to 8/1 on the day.
To be fair it is a very strong bumper as ordinary bumpers go.If Jonbon is half as good as the stable think, he will win the 5.45 Newbury, and I'm amazed he's odds against, although only 6/5.
Bloody hell man after yours and Col's write up I have already put my pen through my bet on PetrossianTo be fair it is a very strong bumper as ordinary bumpers go.
The profile is unreal though. Full brother to Douvan. Won PTP with ease and changed hands for over half a million I believe. The second in that PTP which he beat by a long way has since placed twice in races under rules for Gary Moore.
Shouldn't mind the ground. Douvan never struggled on G/S.
Probably a watching brief today but a good performance and watch how he'll appear at the head of the market for every novice hurdle at next years festival!
Don't worry mate. I'm wrong as often as I am right.Bloody hell man after yours and Col's write up I have already put my pen through my bet on Petrossian
Yeah so did I lol, the winner was very impressive though.Ouch @colinsunderland thought you were up there. Nice picking all the same.