General Election 2024 Thread

[pinnit2014]

2024 for British Politics looks like it could be a brilliant year. The implosion and destruction of the Tory Party as a force. Which in turn removes the very thing that has enabled the SNP to garner support - the collective hate of all things Conservative North of Carlisle

That said, Sturgeon and her husband did a good job at planting the C4 at the corners of the SNP walls. That and the Campervan and then the installation of Useless as FM.

It is the political equivalent of having your Birthday and Christmas all rolled into one

Goodbye Nasty Party that is the Conservatives and good riddance to the separatists and their one policy movement.

Happy Days

Undoubtedly the 600k Campervan has caused damage to the SNP - naturally, when you get a leader with a vice like grip on the party leave, fissures develop and the installation of a leader in Yousaf, who was incompetent at the best of times, never helped. For example, it's only now we're seeing that the SNP have left and right elements: that was previously never heard of.

Lets get their scandal in a bit of context - the Tories have had more by-elections because of inappropriate behaviour in a few weeks than 17 years of government and that's even before we touch the multi billion PPE fraud

However, you'll find the 600k/Van, affecting donations possibly, isn't going to the main issue in the loss of some, still tbc, seats - it's a combination of the state of public services and the lack of a plan.

As a voter of Brexit though, i'll defer to what a separatist is: should being free from the EU not be the same from Westminster?

Independence isn't going to go away - what the SNP have been good at is is tapping into the youth vote which will simply increase, potentially.

Personally, i think the SNP should have went for Devo Max - basically independence in all but name and that would have made the sell to a full Independence a lot easier (depending on how they performed).

I'm not Scottish so i have no skin in the game (well aside from living here and paying more tax than Carlisle ) but i genuinely struggle when i hear folk scoff at it when they voted Brexit. I don't get it, other than wanting to preserve what remains of the Empire - once/if Scotland goes, eyes turn to my heartland.

I started off as No to it to but gradually, as i see what goes on down south and hearing the likes of Lord Frost: going, F it, lets do a Sexit

 

[Webzcas]

Just to add, I am slightly gutted Wings of Scotland blocked me way back in 2014 on Twitter. Otherwise, I would enjoy seeing his reaction. Mind he is local to me. A Scottish separatist that has made Bath his home for the past 20 plus years - You really couldn't make it up!

 

[Webzcas]

Lets get their scandal in a bit of context - the Tories have had more by-elections because of inappropriate behaviour in a few weeks than 17 years of government and that's even before we touch the multi billion PPE fraud

Oh you have no argument from me there. The Tories are Olympic Champions when it comes to scandals. Case in point

 

[pinnit2014]

Oh you have no argument from me there. The Tories are Olympic Champions when it comes to scandals. Case in point


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Always meant to ask Mellor:

How?

 

[pinnit2014]

Oh you have no argument from me there. The Tories are Olympic Champions when it comes to scandals. Case in point


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Didn't know Roger Moore was an MP in the first one

 

[amandajm]

I have no idea what GB Energy actually is...when they initially started touting it, it was made out that it was a form of nationalisation - that then turned to the fact it was a venture capitalist, governance structure - looking for private investment, the govt getting a share of the profits etc.

Checked the detail. You are correct.

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>> We will shape markets, and use public investment to crowd in private funding.

Electricity De France will fund it and the circle will be complete.

 

[pinnit2014]

Checked the detail. You are correct.

Electricity De France will fund it and the circle will be complete.

Yes, it's a very Blairite policy

 

[jasonuk]

It is, another case of Starmer trying to play both sides.

It is particularly telling how much vitriol the 2019 "uncosted" (it wasn't) broadband nationalisation received from the media - another false narrative that was used to smear Corbyn, because if people had looked at the evidence they would have realised it had a lot of potential.

BT were very quick to peddle "£100bn" as counter-evidence (lots of imaginary "compensation" payments etc), sidestepping that they themselves were looking to sell the copper network, and OFCOM had already provided numbers for the expected cost of fibre deployment (spoiler: the combined number wasn't anywhere near £100bn). Depending on the exact details, it could have paid for itself in as little as 10-15 years - returning a valuable asset to the public and a future income stream of £1-3bn per year.


Meanwhile, PFI from the John Major and Tony Blair era gets somewhat of a free pass, even though it is still costing us to this day - a very shiny and welcome boost to the NHS, except (according to a 2019 IPPR report) that £13bn of investment will potentially cost us £80bn - and we still owe half of the money.

According to calculations, something like 1.5% of the overall NHS budget goes into paying for these contracts today - and for some trusts (Barts, Sherwood Forest) more than 10% goes to PFI payments. Which can be particularly problematic if they can't hold the PFI provider to account for maintenance or other required work.

The Tories said they'd ban PFI, then started talking about PPP (public-private partnership, PFI in another name), and Starmer appears to be welcoming it with open arms too. It's not nationalisation at all, it's another millstone around the economy...

 

[Webzcas]

Yes PFI was such a bad thing in the sense generations to come will still be paying for it. As for the telephone network. It is about time that Openreach a BT owned company are either forced to separate from their parent company, or a new company is ideally appointed to take over from them.

They as in Openreach are shocking, yet all telecommunication companies in the UK rely on them, to ensure their customers are connected to the network.

Just seeing an Openreach van parked by the green cabinet across my road fills me with dread.

As for today though. Today has the potential to be a very good day. With the potential obliteration of the Tory Party as a significant political force, with the added bonus if the polls are to be believed, the destruction of the Scottish Separatists North of Carlisle.

However, the future is still bleak. I am nowhere near sold on Starmer or the Corbyn wing of the Labour Party which is still very much evident.

Regardless whether I vote or not and it is still very much a 50 / 50 toss up whether I do. I will be hoping that Nigel Farage and some of his fellow Reform UK candidates pick up several seats. Parliament needs some dissenting voices that is for sure IMO

 

[pinnit2014]

It is, another case of Starmer trying to play both sides.

It is particularly telling how much vitriol the 2019 "uncosted" (it wasn't) broadband nationalisation received from the media - another false narrative that was used to smear Corbyn, because if people had looked at the evidence they would have realised it had a lot of potential.

BT were very quick to peddle "£100bn" as counter-evidence (lots of imaginary "compensation" payments etc), sidestepping that they themselves were looking to sell the copper network, and OFCOM had already provided numbers for the expected cost of fibre deployment (spoiler: the combined number wasn't anywhere near £100bn). Depending on the exact details, it could have paid for itself in as little as 10-15 years - returning a valuable asset to the public and a future income stream of £1-3bn per year.


Meanwhile, PFI from the John Major and Tony Blair era gets somewhat of a free pass, even though it is still costing us to this day - a very shiny and welcome boost to the NHS, except (according to a 2019 IPPR report) that £13bn of investment will potentially cost us £80bn - and we still owe half of the money.

According to calculations, something like 1.5% of the overall NHS budget goes into paying for these contracts today - and for some trusts (Barts, Sherwood Forest) more than 10% goes to PFI payments. Which can be particularly problematic if they can't hold the PFI provider to account for maintenance or other required work.

The Tories said they'd ban PFI, then started talking about PPP (public-private partnership, PFI in another name), and Starmer appears to be welcoming it with open arms too. It's not nationalisation at all, it's another millstone around the economy...

PFI is one of the most legitimised frauds on the UK Taxpayer base - there was talk up here of 'buying out' the PFI deals early but it was costing come exorbitant amount. Poorly drafted, poorly managed by the various public sector bodies it's a good reminder of why i wouldn't let central/local government near these types of deals - there was a report recently in how the govt overpaid, albeit at a lower amount of 100m ish, in deals with the private sector to set up some properties as asylum accommodation.

TBF to some public sectors, the rules on borrowing are a bit odd - they can't borrow in advance of need so one year, when interest rates are really low: no...But in theory they appeared as cheap, immediate finance (when govt finance are tight, helps with capital expenditure) but, as pointed out, an albatross around bodies' necks.

 

[pinnit2014]

Come on Web - all the 'separatists' want to do is 'take back control'; surely you can relate to that

 

[pinnit2014]

The marginal seats are going to be interesting - might see a few Independents/Green pick up from Labour: Birmingham and Mahmood potentially going, Debbonaire and Bristol as Gaza bites them a tad.

Corbyn's seat looks like a toss up so prepare for Chopley's profile pic to return

 

[Webzcas]

Must have been something I said, um, back in 2014 ( Incidentally he used to work for Future Publishing in Bath - I know people that actually know him ) - Bath being the base where the 'Wee Blue Book' was penned LOL

 

[pinnit2014]

Must have been something I said, um, back in 2014 ( Incidentally he used to work for Future Publishing in Bath - I know people that actually know him ) - Bath being the base where the 'Wee Blue Book' was penned LOL

View attachment 198568

Yeah, not exactly a good way to win hearts and minds - did you ask them how their plan for independence was a 7 page white paper ?

Currency? - the Smackarooney

 

[Webzcas]

The marginal seats are going to be interesting - might see a few Independents/Green pick up from Labour: Birmingham and Mahmood potentially going, Debbonaire and Bristol as Gaza bites them a tad.

Corbyn's seat looks like a toss up so prepare for Chopley's profile pic to return

Yes, really looking forward to tonight. Although tonight is also the night of my boy's School Prom. Which means I will potentially having to pick him up in the early hours from a friend's house where he is going for an 'After Prom Party'. Thus missing some TV coverage and meaning sin Cerveza. :-(

 

[Webzcas]

Yeah, not exactly a good way to win hearts and minds - did you ask them how their plan for independence was a 7 page white paper ?

Currency? - the Smackarooney

If I remember vaguely, he told me to butt out of talking about Scottish Independence because I don't live there. I pointed out that I live 13 miles from where he lives. There was a bit of back and forth as well. Same week Frankie Boyle also blocked me. Which came as a shock, as one would have thought he would at least have a rhino hide.

Badges of Honour

 

[pinnit2014]

If I remember vaguely, he told me to butt out of talking about Scottish Independence because I don't live there. I pointed out that I live 13 miles from where he lives. There was a bit of back and forth as well. Same week Frankie Boyle also blocked me. Which came as a shock, as one would have thought he would at least have a rhino hide.

Badges of Honour

View attachment 198569

If you've ever seen him Live, you should be sending a thank you hamper for doing so

 

[Webzcas]

To be fair it was the Artist Taxi Driver's fault as to why Frankie Boyle blocked me. Mark is very pro Scottish Independence and we were having a back and forth and he brought Frankie Boyle into the 'debate'. FWIW I have met Mark 'Chunky' and we still follow each other on twitter to this day.

 

[jasonuk]

PFI is one of the most legitimised frauds on the UK Taxpayer base - there was talk up here of 'buying out' the PFI deals early but it was costing come exorbitant amount. Poorly drafted, poorly managed by the various public sector bodies it's a good reminder of why i wouldn't let central/local government near these types of deals - there was a report recently in how the govt overpaid, albeit at a lower amount of 100m ish, in deals with the private sector to set up some properties as asylum accommodation.

Indeed, and the lucky few that did buy out saved money... funny that.

TBF to some public sectors, the rules on borrowing are a bit odd - they can't borrow in advance of need so one year, when interest rates are really low: no...But in theory they appeared as cheap, immediate finance (when govt finance are tight, helps with capital expenditure) but, as pointed out, an albatross around bodies' necks.

In some cases it can be a bit of a double whammy because they may not be able to put the money aside either (the "use it or lose it" situation). So the rules force public bodies to make sub-optimal decisions, to the benefit of private finance.

At a slight tangent, one US example is with Chicago (

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) - a questionable deal by the mayor to lease their parking meters to Morgan Stanley (75 years, $1.15bn) to cover a financial shortfall and future investment, and the contract that was rushed through was so one-sided that MS (or rather, Abu Dhabi) were already ahead within a decade...

Furthermore, the contract protected MS because the city have to pay penalties for closed or removed meters, too many disabled badge users, and a host of other (likely) edge cases.

The deal as designed was worth around $2.5-3.5bn, but MS had some important clauses (increased hours, increased rates) that they valued it internally at closer to $10bn. Safe to say somebody got the numbers wrong, and it wasn't Morgan Stanley!

 

[dunover]

I've just got back from polling station, only FIVE effing candidates - NO Reform (who I was planning to vote for), one local independent residing in the lower social orders' area, Green (neo-communists), Labour (lose their deposit most elections here) Lib Dems (will win as this seat is always a battle between them and Tories) and Alex Chalk. I nearly ruined my paper but had to vote Chalk under sufferance as I can't stomach the others. One vote he didn't deserve as I had no intention of choosing him when setting out on my early morning walk. Fuck it.

 

[pinnit2014]

Normally round here you'd get the Lib Dem's actively canvassing but there's only been one Party at the door (not that i particularly want them but it's always good to tell the Labour candidate: you put red on today and not blue or the SNP you're not a single issue vote or where's my Van? ) - appreciate reaching out via Social Media but it would be nice if you actually knew what they sounded like.

Scrolled down the ballot - series of Ugh, oh not her, aye on ye go - ended up a pin the tail on the political donkey. First time in a while like Dunover it was close to wasting the ballot paper.

Definitely the start of a great new era, or the same shite as went before.

 

[Webzcas]

I have an update

As with the European Referendum in 2016, I may walk down to William Hill at lunch time and put a cheeky £100 on Reform getting 7 or more seats. Even walking to the polling station, the only houses I saw with political banners, signs or the such like were for Reform...

I sense a 'Shy' Reform UK vote ala 'Shy' Leave in 2016.

 

[pinnit2014]

Going to see some historic swings come tomorrow - one of them might be the nations favourite, Rees-Mogg where seemingly a 15k majority might not be good enough.

Penny looks like she will be holding fries, not the sword of honour, come tomorrow.

Labour getting obliterated in Scotland, losing something like 40 of 41 seats in 2015, was a shot across the bow but will pale in comparison to tomorrow.

 

[Webzcas]

Rees Mogg will fall to Dan Norris of Labour who represented the old Wansdyke constituency up to 2010, when it was abolished. With the boundary changes, Rees Mogg won in 2010.

There is no love for Rees Mogg round these parts. I was born in the town where Rees Mogg has his constituency office.

 

[Webzcas]

The odds for Reform getting 7 or more seats are seriously shortening. You could get 2/1 earlier this morning. Now

 

[thr0b]

Must have been something I said, um, back in 2014 ( Incidentally he used to work for Future Publishing in Bath - I know people that actually know him ) - Bath being the base where the 'Wee Blue Book' was penned LOL

View attachment 198568

Stu was a fantastic video games journalist, who in recent years found a niche in monetising Scottish nationalism, and sadly bigotry has also crept in. I still love his 90s and early 2000s writing, but you’re missing absolutely nothing these days.

 

[Webzcas]

Yeah a friend of mine worked on PC Gamer with Future when he was there

 

[Webzcas]

5/4 now for 7 or more seats with William Hill. Looks like there are many people of the same opinion as me as their odds continue to shorten.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

5/4 now for 7 or more seats with William Hill. Looks like there are many people of the same opinion as me as their odds continue to shorten.

View attachment 198576

Your best bet is to see what senior Tories are betting on, they always seem to have advance notice of which way the wind is blowing

 

[Webzcas]

Your best bet is to see what senior Tories are betting on, they always seem to have advance notice of which way the wind is blowing

HAHA. You don't need insider knowledge to know that they are going to be decimated seat wise come this time tomorrow

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Stu was a fantastic video games journalist, who in recent years found a niche in monetising Scottish nationalism, and sadly bigotry has also crept in. I still love his 90s and early 2000s writing, but you’re missing absolutely nothing these days.

I was an avid reader of Amiga Power back in the day, including during the time Stu Campbell was writing for it.

There's a decent archive of a lot of his stuff online still (that he maintains himself).

He wrote a couple of pieces about fruit machine emulation that were published in PC Zone back in 2001, and even linked to my website of the time

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[mack341]

I can't wait for Lord Farage to be crowned king of Clacton!

Don't think it's a huge constituency so hopefully the count shouldn't take that long.

I wonder what his odds are, normally bookies have their ear to the ground etc..

 

[Webzcas]

I was an avid reader of Amiga Power back in the day, including during the time Stu Campbell was writing for it.

There's a decent archive of a lot of his stuff online still (that he maintains himself).

He wrote a couple of pieces about fruit machine emulation that were published in PC Zone back in 2001, and even linked to my website of the time

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View attachment 198577

Ah yes Amiga Power, my friend was known as C Monster - shared a house with my now wife when went to Uni at Bath.

Now found his niche as a comics writer.

 

[Webzcas]

I can't wait for Lord Farage to be crowned king of Clacton!

Don't think it's a huge constituency so hopefully the count shouldn't take that long.

I wonder what his odds are, normally bookies have their ear to the ground etc..

He is nailed odds on to win it. Something like 1/7 is the best price or thereabouts.

 

[amandajm]

Election Prediction: The emergence of Reform because the Ponzi scheme of mass immigration to further rob the young to prop up the old has not gone unnoticed, especially by the parents of young.

Bet for Dave: The even money available on Reform 5 seats or more looks reasonable. Better bet than the 6/4 Reform 10+ imo.

 

[Webzcas]

Ah not seen than market, was looking and quoting on 7+ seats

 

[amandajm]

Yes my mistake. You were looking at the 7+ market. I was on the phone talking someone out of a way too chunky bet with a firm going 9/4 10 or more and got it twiddled.

You could be right though. The pollsters may be vastly underestimating Farage.

Conclusion: I think the ev 4.5+ is reasonable. (it's diving as I type though) Won't be taking it btw.

 

[Webzcas]

and the odds are shortening even further. Soon it will be even money.

#ShyReformUK

 

[Webzcas]

Damnit! Knew I should have gone to the bookies this morning!!

Now odds on with pretty much every bookmaker that Reform UK will get 7 or more seats!

 

[pinnit2014]

Never even got to see Nigel stoat into the polling station; hope his postal vote came in time

Good chance the Tories will have more seats in Scotland that down south

Damage limitation for the SNP north of the border - if they can hold 20 plus seats, they'll probably be privately happy - what they'll probably be thinking is back in 2010 they only won 6 seats, a year later at Holyrood, swept the board with 69 (different voting systems, yes) But i wouldn't be as confident of a similar scenario in a few years.

 

[Webzcas]

Without the Tories in power at Westminster, the SNP lose their major weapon and all their power over the electorate. A bit like Samson having all his hair cut off.

 

[jasonuk]

As with all political betting, remember it is a novelty market so prices can be skewed up or down on very limited volumes.

Also, political predictions as a whole have been impressively bunk in recent years - we would have avoided both Brexit and a Trump presidency if the odds had been vaguely accurate.

 

[pinnit2014]

Without the Tories in power at Westminster, the SNP lose their major weapon and all their power over the electorate. A bit like Samson having all his hair cut off.

They've had favourable conditions such as Brexit, the Tories in general and CV-19 so you do wonder: when are you going to get suchlike again and still come up short - they'll not say that, but they'll be thinking it

 

[pinnit2014]

As with all political betting, remember it is a novelty market so prices can be skewed up or down on very limited volumes.

Also, political predictions as a whole have been impressively bunk in recent years - we would have avoided both Brexit and a Trump presidency if the odds had been vaguely accurate.

Few people have been mooting the point to stop polling, or at least publishing polls in the lead up (say 2 weeks beforehand): may create apathy etc but you're right, some have not been remotely accurate

 

[Webzcas]

As with all political betting, remember it is a novelty market so prices can be skewed up or down on very limited volumes.

Also, political predictions as a whole have been impressively bunk in recent years - we would have avoided both Brexit and a Trump presidency if the odds had been vaguely accurate.

Not quite so. I called a 'shy' leave vote and ended up with a few hundred return as a result of my hunch. Have the same hunch today.

Whilst Reform have been the subject of several stories in the past week, which makes one want to possibly don a tin foil hat. They are absolutely on point with the social media platforms, whereby their coverage and views dwarfs that of Labour or the Tories.

Obviously the odds are based on how much the bookmakers have laid, I get that. But do not at all be shocked if tonight and in the early hours they have 7 or more MP's going to Westminster.

I am calling it now, I reckon they will likely get 10 or more. With around 20% of the vote.

 

[jasonuk]

Having a look through the markets, there are a few (such as the Reform seats mentioned above) that have a modest volume - as in low six figures - matched. By contrast, all of the LibDem markets combined barely get to £100k (with the smallest being £2.6k matched):

• Labour - 400 to 449 seats at 2.20, 450 to 499 seats at 2.94
• Conservative o/u 99.5 seats - 1.91 over, 2.10 under
• Lib Dems o/u 40.5 seats - 1.14 over, 7.8 under (on limited volume)
• Reform - fairly even split for 1-2 (6.2), 3-4 (5.3) and 5-6 (5.1); with 7+ seats at 2.10
• Scotland - Labour most seats at 1.15, SNP above 6.0 (on limited volume)

 

[jasonuk]

Not quite so. I called a 'shy' leave vote and ended up with a few hundred return as a result of my hunch. Have the same hunch today.

The pollsters were way off on both Brexit and Trump though - I remember somebody who, much to gritted teeth elsewhere, bet a double on Brexit and Trump and won at 40/1. The margins of error claimed by the poll-of-polls were pretty tight, and their prediction was nowhere near... which suggests their methodology wasn't getting to one or more demographics of voter.

Whilst Reform have been the subject of several stories in the past week, which makes one want to possibly don a tin foil hat. They are absolutely on point with the social media platforms, whereby their coverage and views dwarfs that of Labour or the Tories.

That's one thing that the right have done well - leverage social media for their faux-outrage. Some of the new news propaganda channels have pivoted away from linear TV because their viewership is dire (read: hundreds to low thousands of concurrent viewers) but their social media reach does decent numbers because the algorithms amplify "engagement" (drama and faux-outrage).

Also, they don't have to abide by pesky rules about broadcast standards that way - if social media platforms aren't going to give them the boot (because ad revenue is king), nobody else is.

 

[Webzcas]

Unless of course all the pollsters and media get proven wrong and the country is actually "Ready 4 Rishi"

 

[Webzcas]

The pollsters were way off on both Brexit and Trump though - I remember somebody who, much to gritted teeth elsewhere, bet a double on Brexit and Trump and won at 40/1. The margins of error claimed by the poll-of-polls were pretty tight, and their prediction was nowhere near... which suggests their methodology wasn't getting to one or more demographics of voter.

Yeah the Pollsters were well off. I wasn't, hence my £100 bet on Leave winning.

I sense the same feeling this time around too. Because the mainstream media are so quick to label anyone who dares publicly state they are voting Reform, a Racist / Gammon / Tommy Robinson supporter / Xenophobic / Transphobic / Homophobic / Any Phobic - the vast majority of support are what I term 'shy' - They do their talking at the ballot box.

BTW, the odds on Brexit shifted substantially towards Leave the nearer we got to the polls closing. Same is being mirrored somewhat here with Reform.

Hence I think the 'Shy' Reform voters will come out and surprise everyone tonight. Near 20% of the total vote that is my educated guess.

 

[thr0b]

Aye. Always fun when a (far) right-wing party gets anywhere close to power. If the right-wing hate anything more than LGBTQ+ people, immigrants it taxes, it’s other right wing people within their own parties because no matter what happens, their party is not right wing enough for them. They always fall apart catastrophically, and the rest of us have to pick up the pieces.

Look at the Tories - fairly centre-right back in 2008, got rid of the coalition with a further lurch rightward with the agreement to do a Brexit poll that wasn’t needed, took a further lurch rightward when that unexpectedly went through, got in a fairly competent but not-right-wing-enough leader to take over from Cameron who did okay with the shit sandwich she had but which could never be to right-wing enough for the headbangers, replaced her with a law-breaking populist who chose to over-ride laws based on his own whims and lurched further to the right, coup when he was caught out, brief interlude with a mad woman, and a competent middle-manager with no particular ideas or enthusiasm to take the hit as they go down the shitter.

It’s been a ride.