Ebolaman's clarification on "Random"

The max bet button is a bit of a scandal really, why is it always close to the spin button? In fact why is it there at all?
If they think it is really necessary it would be very easy to put in a line of code that warned you the first time you pressed it and asked if you wanted to continue but they don't.
It is really annoying if you are low rolling and trying to stay in the game and wipe out a large percentage of your remaining balance on one spin.

As it happens, I just had yesterday the “happy accident” of hitting the free spins feature with an accidental max bet!! No complains there! :D
 
I would say he is, even if it just say Games maker in his profile :)

Now I don't understand what he said about how the games are working. Math is mostly a guy thing and I won't even try to get it.

But this part of what he said is the most important thing for me and is why I trust the casinos I play in.

''The actual software running the games is generally hosted in whatever jurisdiction the games are certified in. On Malta for LGA, Aldernney for AGCC, Gibraltar for GBGA certified games, and so on. Certifications are performed by a number of accepted test houses (depends on the jurisdiction). The technical requirements for certification are publically available and can be read by anyone. If a game has been certified then that means that the RTP has been independently verified, and that the RNG for that particular provider has been certified.''

Don't doubt for a minute that Netent, Microgaming and others are reading this forum. They are, but few are brave enough to speak, or even allowed to do it.
I love when they do ;)

To be fair Games maker could mean anything but I hope that you are right and I hope he comes back and expands on what he was saying. I do not understand why there is all of this secrecy when it comes to how games are designed but as a mathematician it really fascinates me and I would love to know more about what goes on under the bonnet.

It seems that will probably never happen though. I will try and get hold of one of these documents that specify the criteria for certifying the RNG.
 
To be fair Games maker could mean anything but I hope that you are right and I hope he comes back and expands on what he was saying. I do not understand why there is all of this secrecy when it comes to how games are designed but as a mathematician it really fascinates me and I would love to know more about what goes on under the bonnet.

It seems that will probably never happen though. I will try and get hold of one of these documents that specify the criteria for certifying the RNG.

I don't think there are so much secrecy. No matter how much they try to explain people don't read or understand what they are saying anyway when they are losing their money :rolleyes:

If he starts posting full time about it he will probably have to do it over and over again and it can become a full time job.
I believe that's also a reason why they are avoiding posting in these places.

What you can do is to send him a pm. Maybe he is willing to discuss it there. You can at least try ;)
 
I would say he is, even if it just say Games maker in his profile :)

Now I don't understand what he said about how the games are working. Math is mostly a guy thing and I won't even try to get it.

But this part of what he said is the most important thing for me and is why I trust the casinos I play in.

''The actual software running the games is generally hosted in whatever jurisdiction the games are certified in. On Malta for LGA, Aldernney for AGCC, Gibraltar for GBGA certified games, and so on. Certifications are performed by a number of accepted test houses (depends on the jurisdiction). The technical requirements for certification are publically available and can be read by anyone. If a game has been certified then that means that the RTP has been independently verified, and that the RNG for that particular provider has been certified.''

Don't doubt for a minute that Netent, Microgaming and others are reading this forum. They are, but few are brave enough to speak, or even allowed to do it.
I love when they do ;)

To a point but what a developer and jurisdiction may consider a fair game is defined by them and not the player, that is worth bearing in mind.
Even if a jurisdiction does not allow the TRTP of slots to be changed and defines a minimum payback return allowed it does not mean you are getting a truly "fair" game. In fact if you are guaranteed to get a return within a certain range over a certain amount of wagering you are definitely not getting a fair game IMO. Not saying that is how things are, just giving an example of how returns aren't the be all and end all.

A truly fair 5 reel slot would generate a stop position of each of the reels (5 outcomes all independent of each other and of previous results with each having an equal probability of occurring) and then calculate any win and return after the event. The TRTP would be determined by calculating the return of one full cycle of combinations according to the paytable divided by the the total number of possible outcomes. Where there are bonus games and free spin rounds things would get a little more complicated but essentially you would have a base game TRTP and bonus round TRTP.

I am 100% certain this is not how slots function and unless somebody can give a valid argument as to why other methods would be preferable I have to wonder why.
Perhaps back in the stone age when computing power was much slower and bandwidth a possible issue calculating wins after an event was too slow but very hard to imagine that being the case ever let alone now.
There is no reason a programmer worth their salt couldn't write code that would make this a near instant process along with animating the reels in a natural fashion after all 5 reel stop positions were determined.
In a truly fair slot you could still change the TRTP by either changing swapping a symbol though that should not be allowed or by changing the paytable which should be allowed so long as the player is made aware of TRTP of each slot before playing and changes are never made in game.

Fascinating discussion about the use of Markov chains. :thumbsup:
 
A truly fair 5 reel slot would generate a stop position of each of the reels (5 outcomes all independent of each other and of previous results with each having an equal probability of occurring) and then calculate any win and return after the event. The TRTP would be determined by calculating the return of one full cycle of combinations according to the paytable divided by the the total number of possible outcomes. Where there are bonus games and free spin rounds things would get a little more complicated but essentially you would have a base game TRTP and bonus round TRTP.

Yes I agree with this - not knowing much (anything) about what really goes on, if I were to try and write my own slot this is exactly how I would proceed. The game mechanics of the slot would then simply involve generating 5 independent random numbers that correspond to the position of the symbol on each reel that occupies the centre of the winline. The TRTP would then be easily calculated from the enumeration of EVERY possible combination and the resulting payout for that combo. Everyone would know exactly where they were and TRTP could be easily be verified and the sense of mystery would be eliminated.

Not just that though, but surely this is also the most simple means of creating a slot. It becomes almost trivial and the only real skill in the development process becomes the artwork, sound effects, animation etc of the slot.

I can understand though that when it comes to the bonus rounds then different reels would need to be used but then we also see this happens anyway for games like IR, BSG, TFOL etc.
 
Just a random thought, which I haven't really thought through. but...

Would the difference be (if there is one), the range of stakes involved?
If for example 95% of players were playing IR at low stakes and 5% were playing at maximum stake, and if those 5% just happened to be the luckiest players.
Maybe some of them get a 5 reel wild desire, so therefore they get the highest RTP. The actual RTP% overall may be accurate as a percentage. But financially would the casino not make a huge loss? Is there some kind of protection to prevent this happening
 
Just a random thought, which I haven't really thought through. but...

Would the difference be (if there is one), the range of stakes involved?
If for example 95% of players were playing IR at low stakes and 5% were playing at maximum stake, and if those 5% just happened to be the luckiest players.
Maybe some of them get a 5 reel wild desire, so therefore they get the highest RTP. The actual RTP% overall may be accurate as a percentage. But financially would the casino not make a huge loss? Is there some kind of protection to prevent this happening

This is what I said in an earlier post - dramatic stake changes can skew the RTP massively up or down for the player, and potentially the casino - so are there any parameters built in?
 
You mean like each stake running as it's own independent game? I have often wondered this myself.

There is one thing I have noticed on IGT slots, I'm not sure if it happens on all of them. but definitely does on cleopatra and the like.
If you change the coin size the slot reloads, as though it was loading a different slot, but this doesn't happen if you change the number of coins.
so, say you're playing 1x5p and change to 2x5p, nothing happens. but if you change from 1x5p to 1x10p. the slot reloads.
I'm not sure if this has any significance, but surly it would be easier to just change a couple of graphics on the skin, rather than reload the whole thing again
 
Just a random thought, which I haven't really thought through. but...

Would the difference be (if there is one), the range of stakes involved?
If for example 95% of players were playing IR at low stakes and 5% were playing at maximum stake, and if those 5% just happened to be the luckiest players.
Maybe some of them get a 5 reel wild desire, so therefore they get the highest RTP. The actual RTP% overall may be accurate as a percentage. But financially would the casino not make a huge loss? Is there some kind of protection to prevent this happening

Yes this would be a problem to a point so it may well be there are algorithms that take account of stake changes. Certainly I noticed that on MG slots there is a pause on the spin after upping the stake as if some calculation were taking place. That would have to be an extremely complex calculation though to cause even a split second pause so more likely it is loading a different version of the game as previously mentioned. This has to a be a concern.

A way around this problem would be to have different set stakes and different versions of the games for each stake so to play a higher or lower stake you would need to come out of one game and load a version of another. Or perhaps you could select your stake before whichever version of the game is loaded but the same version of the game should be loaded for each stake.
 
Yes I agree with this - not knowing much (anything) about what really goes on, if I were to try and write my own slot this is exactly how I would proceed. The game mechanics of the slot would then simply involve generating 5 independent random numbers that correspond to the position of the symbol on each reel that occupies the centre of the winline. The TRTP would then be easily calculated from the enumeration of EVERY possible combination and the resulting payout for that combo. Everyone would know exactly where they were and TRTP could be easily be verified and the sense of mystery would be eliminated.

Not just that though, but surely this is also the most simple means of creating a slot. It becomes almost trivial and the only real skill in the development process becomes the artwork, sound effects, animation etc of the slot.

I can understand though that when it comes to the bonus rounds then different reels would need to be used but then we also see this happens anyway for games like IR, BSG, TFOL etc.

Yes and I truly wish slots operated so transparently, after all it is the way we have always been led to believe that they do operate.

I would have to disagree about the level of skill required though. While the code required is fairly simple for anyone with reasonable coding skills a lot of the actual "design/gameplay" of the slot is the real skill (assuming we work with our ideal model) and this may be a reason, should this method actually be employed, that artificial variance is applied to slot games to make them more exciting or "streaky" and addictive.
It is all well and good designing a slot with 95% TRTP but that in itself is not enough to make it an enjoyable game to play, it needs a hook.
With very high variance games there needs to be something going on that gives the player the desire to continue even though nothing is really happening most of the time and with low variance you need to keep alive the idea that a big win is possible even though they are only hit small wins.
This is easy enough if you employ other means to our ideal of how a slot should be designed but more difficult when you need to achieve this through generic gameplay.

However it is entirely possible if you know what makes a good slot just as it is easy to design slots with different variance by changing the reel layout and paytable. The easiest way to achieve this is through bonus games, deciding on what weighting to give prizes and how much of TRTP should be allocated to them.
 
A fun thing to think about with all these questions and speculations, is the fact that I don't think there are many casino owners that knows this either. Or the people who works there. They know their own area and what they have been hired to do, and nothing more.
In the end it all comes down to trust and nothing else.

You could explain to me for several weeks and I still wouldn't get it, and neither would most players.

How come a few of us do trust casinos even though we don't know everything? Well, we just have to or we will have to find something else to do.
Even if you get your mathematical explanation, what will you do with it? Play more or question it anyway?
Also it seems to be different depending on what Software it is, so you'll need more explanations.
You need to know how the games are tested. You need to know so much that you probably won't have time to play :eek2:

Just some thoughts from me since the discussion seems to continue ;)
 
Just a random thought, which I haven't really thought through. but...

Would the difference be (if there is one), the range of stakes involved?
If for example 95% of players were playing IR at low stakes and 5% were playing at maximum stake, and if those 5% just happened to be the luckiest players.
Maybe some of them get a 5 reel wild desire, so therefore they get the highest RTP. The actual RTP% overall may be accurate as a percentage. But financially would the casino not make a huge loss? Is there some kind of protection to prevent this happening

Theoretically this should not be a problem for the casino - it is the same with any game that is not fair to the player. When I say not fair, I mean a game where there is an edge in favour of the casino. Theoretically it can be proved that any form of stake variation is insufficient to overcome the house/casino edge. This is why these bulls*it schemes that people peddle that suggest doubling of stake when you lose when betting black/red or odd/even at roulette are nonsense.

If the casino has a house edge then stake variation cannot overcome that edge (from a theoretical game theory perspective).
 
How come a few of us do trust casinos even though we don't know everything? Well, we just have to or we will have to find something else to do.
Even if you get your mathematical explanation, what will you do with it? Play more or question it anyway?

I totally trust the mainline casinos - I just find it interesting. I suppose it is like cars - some people like to just drive them, others like to know the physics that explains why the engine works. :)
 
I totally trust the mainline casinos - I just find it interesting. I suppose it is like cars - some people like to just drive them, others like to know the physics that explains why the engine works. :)

Great :thumbsup:
Then I trust you to go to bottom with all of this and then tell us how it's working. Please find the truth.

I can't say we will believe you. Someone will probably still scream rigged or say that you're wrong, but that's the nature of people.


Sorry, I just love being ironic, but I'm sure you get my point :D
 
A fun thing to think about with all these questions and speculations, is the fact that I don't think there are many casino owners that knows this either. Or the people who works there. They know their own area and what they have been hired to do, and nothing more.
In the end it all comes down to trust and nothing else.

You could explain to me for several weeks and I still wouldn't get it, and neither would most players.

How come a few of us do trust casinos even though we don't know everything? Well, we just have to or we will have to find something else to do.
Even if you get your mathematical explanation, what will you do with it? Play more or question it anyway?
Also it seems to be different depending on what Software it is, so you'll need more explanations.
You need to know how the games are tested. You need to know so much that you probably won't have time to play :eek2:

Just some thoughts from me since the discussion seems to continue ;)

It's a 'man thing' Tirilej - from a young age we feel the need to dismantle things to see how they work, or how we think they work....;)
We gave up on understanding women so we turned our attention to cars and computers and slots...:D
 
It's a 'man thing' Tirilej - from a young age we feel the need to dismantle things to see how they work, or how we think they work....;)
We gave up on understanding women so we turned our attention to cars and computers and slots...:D

I've met a few men in my life so yes, I know how you're functioning.

It's more a few thoughts for those who are not in your age yet, i.e not destroyed :p
 
I've met a few men in my life so yes, I know how you're functioning.

It's more a few thoughts for those who are not in your age yet, i.e not destroyed :p

Change 'your' to 'our' and stop pretending....:p
 
It's a 'man thing' Tirilej - from a young age we feel the need to dismantle things to see how they work, or how we think they work....;)
We gave up on understanding women so we turned our attention to cars and computers and slots...:D


Yeah, try dismantling a woman and you would end up in prison ;)

Though, I am sure many men would really like to know what's really under our hoods. (in our heads)


AND........... we ain't gonna tell you!!!
 
This convo is always intresting lol.

Are RNG really Random............. Go on prove they arnt
Are RNG not Random................ Go on prove they are.

But there tested........... So some of the worlds main governing Bodies are bent (fifa anyone).

Fact is nobody knows nowt and until the brains behind it come here nobody will.

But keep the theory's coming as some are funny and even interesting
 
But there tested...........

No they are not. The results are tested, which is not the same thing.

You can't truly judge a book without opening the book. Example - Would you trust any friendly looking old man with a white beard to be a good babysitter because they do nice things and look like Santa Claus?
Or would you rather see their source code just to be sure (if that were possible)

I do agree with Tirilej's pont though. We trust because ultimately we want to play these games.
And the trust is I think relative and variable per individual.
e.g. I don't 'trust' Microgaming casinos to be providing a truly random experience but DO trust that my experience of playing them is not different to anyone else's so I continue to enjoy them
(ie my own assessment is that nobody is 'targetted', and the rules are the same for everyone, but we just don't know what they are).
 
No they are not. The results are tested, which is not the same thing.

It's a bit like saying that any friendly looking old man with a white beard would be a good babysitter because they look like Santa Claus.

I do agree with Tirilej's pont though. We trust because ultimately we want to play these games.
And the trust is I think relative and variable per individual.
e.g. I don't 'trust' Microgaming casinos to be providing a truly random experience but DO trust that my experience of playing them is not different to anyone else's so I continue to enjoy them
(ie my own assessment is that nobody is 'targetted', and the rules are the same for everyone, but we just don't know what they are).


The tested bit was more of a quote of things we read but yes it is all about trust. as to be fair they can say the results are tested but in todays day and age and the amount of dodgy going on and backhands we only have trust to rely on
 
Couple points I want to make, apologize if they are redundant (as I haven't gotten through this whole thread):

1) Casinos may not need to rig games, but if they had - instead of a need - a WANT to rig them, some would likely do that. If money is at stake, someone somewhere will do just about anything to get their hands on it. Having said that:

2) If games WERE being rigged, someone would have discovered and exposed it. In fact, some softwares HAVE been exposed as flawed/crooked. It wouldn't necessarily be easy to ferret it out for average people, but even the most complicated designs are built on the simplest things - for example, Alan Turing's research gave birth to computers and the internet, and what I find most remarkable about his research is that essentially, he manipulated 1's and 0's, nothing more. Likewise, for someone with education and experience in computer languages and slot creation, it seems like it would be a fairly simple matter to test theories about crooked games, and confirm or deny integrity with 99% confidence.

3) Finally, there will always be an element of trust involved in a relationship between business and consumer. I remember a conversation I had with a friend years ago - I purchased some goods via mail order - she couldn't believe I would do that, because (to paraphrase), "how do you KNOW it's any good?" Well, aside from the fact that I ordered from them before and it was good, at some point I have to trust their representations.
 
Couple points I want to make, apologize if they are redundant (as I haven't gotten through this whole thread):

1) Casinos may not need to rig games, but if they had - instead of a need - a WANT to rig them, some would likely do that. If money is at stake, someone somewhere will do just about anything to get their hands on it. Having said that:

2) If games WERE being rigged, someone would have discovered and exposed it. In fact, some softwares HAVE been exposed as flawed/crooked. It wouldn't necessarily be easy to ferret it out for average people, but even the most complicated designs are built on the simplest things - for example, Alan Turing's research gave birth to computers and the internet, and what I find most remarkable about his research is that essentially, he manipulated 1's and 0's, nothing more. Likewise, for someone with education and experience in computer languages and slot creation, it seems like it would be a fairly simple matter to test theories about crooked games, and confirm or deny integrity with 99% confidence.

3) Finally, there will always be an element of trust involved in a relationship between business and consumer. I remember a conversation I had with a friend years ago - I purchased some goods via mail order - she couldn't believe I would do that, because (to paraphrase), "how do you KNOW it's any good?" Well, aside from the fact that I ordered from them before and it was good, at some point I have to trust their representations.


I'm not sure the problem (if one exists) is so much that the software is "rigged" but that it is disingenuously represented.
That is to say the graphical representation and reel layout is misleading people into believing this how the TRTP is made up when in fact it doesn't seem to be the case.
Certainly there a 5 reel slots that do not have set reels that are licensed and while I don't like that there is at least no confusion as to equating probabilities to how the reels are set out and indeed slots with set reels may well operate in the same way but that would mean the graphical representation was misleading.
Likewise most 3 reel slots do not graphically represent the probabilities of winning yet jurisdictions have no co concerns about licensing them so long as they maintain a random element and have a genuine TRTP.
 
I'm not sure the problem (if one exists) is so much that the software is "rigged" but that it is disingenuously represented.
That is to say the graphical representation and reel layout is misleading people into believing this how the TRTP is made up when in fact it doesn't seem to be the case.

Could be, however, from my understanding, the only way to alter the RTP is through altering the reel strips.

Coming back to the point raised earlier about changing coin size, if changing coin size had the effect of altering the RTP, then in testing the results (by certification entities), appearance of certain icons would change detectably, and we would know that the games are not strictly random insofar as selection of coin size alters game outcomes.
 
I wish I could find the old thread. KK would know how. Symbols were tracked on various MG slots and the payout % was as should be. However, there were some - like that 5 reeler with the owls - that proved to be weighted. And those of you math heads can explain what that means better than I can. :)
 
Could be, however, from my understanding, the only way to alter the RTP is through altering the reel strips.

Coming back to the point raised earlier about changing coin size, if changing coin size had the effect of altering the RTP, then in testing the results (by certification entities), appearance of certain icons would change detectably, and we would know that the games are not strictly random insofar as selection of coin size alters game outcomes.

I think that is the way different versions of certain B&M casino slots have different TRTP but I don't know that is how all software operates online, well actually I think it highly unlikely.
There are many ways to change the TRTP, you could alter that values of the paytable for example which would be more legitimate than changing the symbols on the reels for me just so long as players were notified of the version and TRTP when they loaded up the game.
There are obviously a lot of ways it can be done through using algorithms but I'm not sure these would test the standards required by some jurisdictions because such a method could easily be abused.

As for coin size I really don't know. My instinct is to say that changing coin size shouldn't alter the probabilities and therefore the TRTP but obviously being able to change the bet size dramatically from spin to spin would seem to give the player some kind of control.
If it were roulette you can safely say the HE remains the same no matter the stake but with slots there is much more room for trying to manipulate variance.
Isn't there some maths guy on here somewhere?

Anyway if it was mathematically shown that a player could gain some form of advantage by changing bet sizes according to previous results then it would also likely be safe to assume the software providers are aware of this and so therefore there is some form of algorithm that controls variance rather than it just being a natural product of the slot design.

The post above talks about some 5 reel slots layout and paytable corresponding with the TRTP stated for that slot but others with the same software that don't and certainly 3 reel slots don't so I wouldn't take that as evidence that the slots work on that basis but rather that software companies are aware that if they do not correspond then people are entitled to ask why not and how do they work then?
Anyway some software don't even have set reels spin to spin.

If you ask a software company directly they will always side step the questions and say they don't want to reveal the designs of their slots to their competitors so one can take as they like. The reality is though that they are anything but transparent about it and so it is valid to ask why that might be regardless of whether one believes the reasons they give.
 
My theory is they are random in a sence, but im almost 100% convienced that they can manipulate the payout somehow.

Either by changing the RTP or its working on some kind of AWP system. Also when u are playing lets say NetEnt if your having a bad run it doessent matter what slot u chose it will be the same. And vice verca when u are winning u cant do wrong, every slot u touch will pay.

And 99.9% of the time after cashing out if you redeposite at the same casino slots are totally dead.. No in between just dead,Always!

Especially with NetEnt. Ive quit playing NetEnt and MG because it gives me no playtime at all,maybe 1 out of 50 sessions is a winning one. Never gives freespinns and when u get em its total shit anyways. It seams the more popular the slots become the worse they get... I used to have great sessions on NetEnt now its just horrible. Im so done with it..

Ive found playing WMS are way more entertaining. Especially Ruby Slippers,Wizard of OZ,Bruce Lee and Bierhouse usually gives alot of playtime and features even if im having a losing session it leaves me with a feeling of having fun, and thats whats importent.

But slots are not random, you guys say the casinos do not need to rigg the games because of the house edge? Well ofcourse, but then they have to have alot of customers to keep the buisness going. Smaler casinos would go bankrupt.. Remember where there are alot of money their is always corruption and cheating going on.

Also when u hear these stories of the same person winning the Mega Fortune jackpot and then the Arabien nights jackpot on the same day or week. Also hitting the major and then the mega jackpot on the same day. Ive read countless fairytales like that. What are the odds of that happening? Ofcourse its happening because the RTP of their account was sett to high. Thats why they hit it twice and thats why you 99.9% of the time get a shit session after a cashout, because your account RTP is dropping after the win u had to level out. Thats if u play until it goes cold and then cashout.. If u cashout while its hot u will continue to win if u deposite again.

NOW, maybe the whole randomness is decided on your account. If u get a hot or cold session.. and it levels out over time. Hence the cold sessions after cashing out...
 
Also when u hear these stories of the same person winning the Mega Fortune jackpot and then the Arabien nights jackpot on the same day or week.

That Dutch player won the Arabian Nights on 27th of May 2013 and then Mega Fortune in 8th of August 2013, that's like 10 weeks pretty far away from "on the same day or week". :rolleyes:

People who have won jackpots, have more money to play, and if they play a lot, they might win again. But for every jackpot winner who manages to do it again, there are probably several jackpot winners who just lose their money, if not all, at least a big chunk of it, back to casino. That Dutch player won the Mega Fortune jackpot with 10k euro comp the casino gave her, because she was away a couple days and they missed her, she didn't even ask for it. To get 10k€ comps for being a couple days away, she probably had to have lost quite chunk of her money back.

"Remember that guy, who won that nice fat jackpot couple months ago? Today is the day he has lost it all back to the casino. Let's give him applause for this achievement. Jackpot X is nearing 2 millions, deposit now, if you win, maybe you'll be able to beat this guy in how fast you manage to lose it back" , does not make a good casino newsletter, so you are more likely to hear from the repeat jackpot winners than jackpot winners who lose their money back.
 
Last edited:

Users who are viewing this thread

Accredited Casinos

Read about our rating system and how it's done.
Back
Top