Corona virus - Covid 19 discussion

[colinsunderland]

24th Nov

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Over 30,000 non-Covid-19 excess deaths at home in England and Wales since March​

Extra deaths – known as “excess deaths” – are the number of deaths that are above the average for the corresponding period in the previous five years.

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I think more people will have died before their time because the NHS service has been restricted, hardly any face to face GP appointments, thousands of operations and tests postponed; plus the relentless fear people have been exposed to by the media, [and the initial 'save the nhs' message] probably put people off from going to get things checked out. [if in fact it had been possible in their area]

Yes but you need to compare that stat to others, for example hospital deaths in the same period were massively down, which is understandable as people didn't want to go in.

they are the most recent figures I can find on this, but think it's safe to say care homes will have continued to be under average for most the year from then on, and hospitals too, although probably not as much as they were in April/May. I expect home deaths will have dropped slightly, but still be higher than average.

Regarding just excess deaths

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Between Weeks 1 and 12 in 2020, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 50, 440,598 deaths were registered, which was 72,709 more than the five-year average.

Showing that excess deaths were down at the start of the year, and as we didn't have late snow or ice like some years, I think it's safe to say that trend would have continued.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths up to 11 December 2020 was 579,491, which is 67,864 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 11 December 2020, 72,546 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. This is 12.5% of all deaths in England and Wales.

So you can see the number of C-19 deaths is pretty similar to the excess deaths. Some, undoubtedly, would have died anyway, but there's an offset that people who would normally have died from the flu, haven't because they haven't been anywhere to catch it.

It's still a bit early to do a detailed analysis as the full data to year end doesn't seem to have been published anywhere yet, and I think it's pretty likely numbers will be worse taking into account the sharp rises we had over Christmas.

 

[colinsunderland]

Currently isolating with COVID. Caught it New Years Day off a symptomatic colleague who thought he was hungover. Ended up knocking him for six for 3 days. I had slight irritation at back of nose and chest has felt 'heavy' past couple of days. Still have taste, although it's a bit off.

Taking nothing for granted and resting as much as I can.

Hope you get over it pretty quickly

 

[ChopleyIOM]

It’s about 30 times bigger than the UK in land mass with about a third of the population. Along with the fact they don’t let people into their country willy-nilly, probably helped significantly.

I still think International travel has played a major part in spreading this virus. There we were, (the majority of us) playing our part during the first lockdown whilst still allowing thousands of people from all over the world into the country on a daily basis. Try and figure that out, an impossible scenario to police properly.

That's definitely a big part of it, when the IOM went into lockdown last March (basically at the same time as the UK) we closed our borders too, with people only allowed on or off the island in VERY limited circumstances, and with very strict isolation rules for anyone who was allowed to come here. We managed to eliminate Covid locally within months, and declared Covid-free at the end of June.

We're back in lockdown now for three weeks (as per my post a couple of days ago), and our borders are basically closed again (they were heavily restricted before that, alas that was not enough to stop Covid finding its way back here).

I absolutely do not see the point of a lockdown if the borders essentially remain open, as they did in the UK last year, and are largely remaining open now.

We're operating on a Covid elimination strategy, the idea of this three week lockdown is to identify everyone who is currently infected and get them isolated/treated as required, and to stop the virus having any chance to spread.

Fingers crossed we'll be back to normal again by the start of February.

Lockdowns work when they're done properly, Australia managed it, the UK, as a relatively small island nation, should definitely be able to manage it.

 

[bamberfishcake]

Regarding this lockdown compared to the initial in March do the roads and streets seem busier to anyone else?

Simply speaking from what i have seen this lockdown is not being adhered to like the first. The roads and streets are very busy around south east Essex and not reminiscent of the original lockdown at all.

Hard for me to see the value in this lockdown if its not being adhered to or enforced.

 

[colinsunderland]

Regarding this lockdown compared to the initial in March do the roads and streets seem busier to anyone else?

Simply speaking from what i have seen this lockdown is not being adhered to like the first. The roads and streets are very busy around south east Essex and not reminiscent of the original lockdown at all.

Hard for me to see the value in this lockdown if its not being adhered to or enforced.

Everywhere is much busier to the first one round here, but nowhere near as busy as the second one, that I think pretty much everyone completely ignored.
Thats to be expected though as many more businesses are open, construction for example was closed the first time. A lot of call centres and offices were closed, but many (not all) have put screens up etc so they are 'safe' to work in now.

We have a lot of call centres less than a mile from me, large ones like Barclays,. MoreThan insurance, EDF to name a few, and from what I've been told most are operating at 80-100% capacity. They were all pretty much closed first time round with staff working from home. Now, to me, if they could work at home first time, then they can this time. As the government have said if you can work at home, then you must, then I think any companies not adhering to that, should be fined. The police are doing press releases saying how they will fine people who don't wear masks where they need to, who breach lockdown rules etc, well if I can get a £200 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop, then why can't Barclays get a big fine for not sending it's workers to work from home.

People are taking the piss with schools now too, the government have said that any child without access to a laptop is classed as 'vulnerable' and can go to school. One teacher I know (from the internet, so don't know properly) states his school has 1100 pupils. During the first lockdown they had 85 in, kids of keyworkers and vulnerable kids. Yesterday they had almost 500 turn up. I don't believe almost half a secondary school's kids don't own a laptop, tablet or phone (granted a phone wouldn't be great to work on). I will put money on most of the parents sending the kids in will be the same ones who were calling for the schools to be closed, and clapping for the NHS not long ago.

 

[Slottery]

Regarding this lockdown compared to the initial in March do the roads and streets seem busier to anyone else?

Simply speaking from what i have seen this lockdown is not being adhered to like the first. The roads and streets are very busy around south east Essex and not reminiscent of the original lockdown at all.

Hard for me to see the value in this lockdown if its not being adhered to or enforced.

What penalties you get if you violate lockdown rules? In Malta it started to work when increased €€ amount for them who should be quarantine and violated that, one foreign person got first fined €1000, then €3000 and then it was raised up to €10000, at some point people do start to follow these rules if there is will from government make people to do so.

Money probably better way than throwing people to jail and if you can affored €10k every time you going out, it's quite small amount of people anyway and good cashflow for health care budget

 

[mcgameboy]

Currently isolating with COVID. Caught it New Years Day off a symptomatic colleague who thought he was hungover. Ended up knocking him for six for 3 days. I had slight irritation at back of nose and chest has felt 'heavy' past couple of days. Still have taste, although it's a bit off.

Taking nothing for granted and resting as much as I can.

When I first read that, I was like "jeez, that's a rather violent and prolonged retaliation on your part".

Then the bamberfishcake-itis wore off and I actually understood what you meant.

In all seriousness though, I wish you a speedy recovery. Take care mate.

 

[bamberfishcake]

Everywhere is much busier to the first one round here, but nowhere near as busy as the second one, that I think pretty much everyone completely ignored.
Thats to be expected though as many more businesses are open, construction for example was closed the first time. A lot of call centres and offices were closed, but many (not all) have put screens up etc so they are 'safe' to work in now.

We have a lot of call centres less than a mile from me, large ones like Barclays,. MoreThan insurance, EDF to name a few, and from what I've been told most are operating at 80-100% capacity. They were all pretty much closed first time round with staff working from home. Now, to me, if they could work at home first time, then they can this time. As the government have said if you can work at home, then you must, then I think any companies not adhering to that, should be fined. The police are doing press releases saying how they will fine people who don't wear masks where they need to, who breach lockdown rules etc, well if I can get a £200 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop, then why can't Barclays get a big fine for not sending it's workers to work from home.

People are taking the piss with schools now too, the government have said that any child without access to a laptop is classed as 'vulnerable' and can go to school. One teacher I know (from the internet, so don't know properly) states his school has 1100 pupils. During the first lockdown they had 85 in, kids of keyworkers and vulnerable kids. Yesterday they had almost 500 turn up. I don't believe almost half a secondary school's kids don't own a laptop, tablet or phone (granted a phone wouldn't be great to work on). I will put money on most of the parents sending the kids in will be the same ones who were calling for the schools to be closed, and clapping for the NHS not long ago.

Yes the problem with our lockdowns is they are not as strict as some other countries which have demonstrated they work in reducing the spread in my opinion. Agree too many people are not doing what they should but i can only blame the government again for not handling it correctly.

So much misinformation and divided opinion it needs a stricter approach.

What penalties you get if you violate lockdown rules? In Malta it started to work when increased €€ amount for them who should be quarantine and violated that, one foreign person got first fined €1000, then €3000 and then it was raised up to €10000, at some point people do start to follow these rules if there is will from government make people to do so.

Money probably better way than throwing people to jail and if you can affored €10k every time you going out, it's quite small amount of people anyway and good cashflow for health care budget

As I said above, its not enforced from what i can see. Malta's approach is not rocket science and similar to what other countries have done. I dont think its because our government has no backbone. I dont think its because they simply cant see whats going on. Which leaves me wondering yet again what they are playing at

 

[shadow123]

Got to be a new low even for the UK, guy knocked on the door of a 92 year old woman, told her she needed a vaccine,
jabbed her with some unknown implement containing god knows what then demanded a fee of £160 for the "treatment",
went to see her again later demanding another £100.
Thankfully she seemed ok after being checked over, but what kind of lowlife would stoop to doing something like that

 

[Borgie]

BREAKING: UK approves Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

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Sent via @updayUK

 

[mack341]

hospital deaths in the same period were massively down, which is understandable as people didn't want to go in.

Or had their consultant appointments for tests and procedures cancelled? I doubt somebody with a physical injury would have decided not to attend the emergency service because of covid and then died in their home instead of the hospital, so that leaves all the other longer term conditions which normally involve liason with your GP to gain access to a hospital consultant/tests/surgery etc...

It is only understandable if they have been exposed to too much daily fear and half-truths pumped out by the media, why else would an extra 30,000 people die at home in preference to getting hospital care - even if it is just to make the end less painful.

 

[Borgie]

Major incident declared in London as hospitals face critical Covid threat

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Sent via @updayUK

 

[dealer wins]

Fantastic collection of articles on why lockdowns are a disastrous policy that cause untold more damage and lives.

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[colinsunderland]

Fantastic collection of articles on why lockdowns are a disastrous policy that cause untold more damage and lives.

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When are you going to answer the questions I asked you? Or are you admitting you were just lying about everything?

 

[colinsunderland]

Or had their consultant appointments for tests and procedures cancelled? I doubt somebody with a physical injury would have decided not to attend the emergency service because of covid and then died in their home instead of the hospital, so that leaves all the other longer term conditions which normally involve liason with your GP to gain access to a hospital consultant/tests/surgery etc...

It is only understandable if they have been exposed to too much daily fear and half-truths pumped out by the media, why else would an extra 30,000 people die at home in preference to getting hospital care - even if it is just to make the end less painful.

Well yes which is what I meant, people not ringing their GP for stuff, people deciding not to go to hospital for appointments, people having them cancelled would all contribute to that, people choosing to have end of life care at home rather than in a hospital,

 

[Masquerade67]

Fantastic collection of articles on why lockdowns are a disastrous policy that cause untold more damage and lives.

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Yaawwn - you keep fighting evolution and I'll fight the winner. Which was your favourite article on their site or did you buy the book they are trying to sell ?

 

[Gaz237]

Fantastic collection of articles on why lockdowns are a disastrous policy that cause untold more damage and lives.

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Do you actually spend time trying to find the utter most bullshite to post.

Or is it just the first piece of crap that comes along you just copy and paste.

I would believe your a troll, but that would be doing a troll a disservice.

Your just pure thick as shite, who has not once backed any of your copy and pastes up with facts,

 

[bamberfishcake]

I think, as Mr Casinomeister mentioned, the best thing to do in this case is ignore the people who troll and spout rubbish.

Seeing the replies, i would guess, is what those kind of people get the kick from.

 

[shadow123]

New record UK death figures today ,1325, a big jump from yesterday and getting scary, in the race covid vs vaccine,covid is
in the lead and pulling away, can see it reaching 2000 when the xmas break effects kick in.

 

[shadow123]

I think, as Mr Casinomeister mentioned, the best thing to do in this case is ignore the people who troll and spout rubbish.

Seeing the replies, i would guess, is what those kind of people get the kick from.

Totally agree,they will soon stop posting if they get no reaction

 

[mack341]

Logging out now, this is not a good day for forum civility. what was ever wrong with agree to disagree, just as you would in real life.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

 

[geordiecolin]

These are the official figures of total deaths in Sweden 2010- 2020 which are pretty consistent.

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[Slottery]

These are the official figures of total deaths in Sweden 2010- 2020 which are pretty consistent.

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Saw this few days ago somewhere and yes, not huge spikes there, December numbers only until 18th so they might get bit higher, but higher numbers were expected as the previous year mortality rate was under average, but glad to see whole population not passed away even some stories around internet would suggest that.

Main fckup what happened in Sweden and many other places was failure to secure care homes where people are living their last years and don't have very good immune system in their bodies anymore, unfortunately it's also hard to totally isolate people who are dependent from daily assist which is reason they live in care homes. For younger people covid haven't been that killing, it's quite visible from stats that high age is colerating with mortality which should be learned by now:

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[electronictonic]

Logging out now, this is not a good day for forum civility. what was ever wrong with agree to disagree, just as you would in real life.

Nothing, it's just the same handful of posters as per a few months ago who are abusive, and they all have one thing in common as well.

 

[geordiecolin]

Saw this few days ago somewhere and yes, not huge spikes there, December numbers only until 18th so they might get bit higher, but higher numbers were expected as the previous year mortality rate was under average, but glad to see whole population not passed away even some stories around internet would suggest that.

Main fckup what happened in Sweden and many other places was failure to secure care homes where people are living their last years and don't have very good immune system in their bodies anymore, unfortunately it's also hard to totally isolate people who are dependent from daily assist which is reason they live in care homes. For younger people covid haven't been that killing, it's quite visible from stats that high age is colerating with mortality which should be learned by now:

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Yet we had all media and governments outside of Sweden telling us that the Swedish model was stupid based on the science and that Sweden would live (or die) to regret it. Where does this leave our public's who invested all of their trust in our governments, the science,msm,and the online fact checkers when it comes to listening to lock downs and the measures that Sweden did not take?
Why wouldn't Joe Bloggs not think "Fuck it I'm having a party" ?
Over the past 20 years last years figures have actually went down per head of population in Sweden

 

[Masquerade67]

I think, as Mr Casinomeister mentioned, the best thing to do in this case is ignore the people who troll and spout rubbish.

Seeing the replies, i would guess, is what those kind of people get the kick from.

Yes, I agree. Sorry all. Thanks for the nudge Bamber (you needed one more BTW)

 

[Slottery]

Yet we had all media and governments outside of Sweden telling us that the Swedish model was stupid based on the science and that Sweden would live (or die) to regret it. Where does this leave our public's who invested all of their trust in our governments, the science,msm,and the online fact checkers when it comes to listening to lock downs and the measures that Sweden did not take?
Why wouldn't Joe Bloggs not think "Fuck it I'm having a party" ?
Over the past 20 years last years figures have actually went down per head of population

Sweden themselves admit that they failed in many ways especially during spring. It also looks to be very different in different countries how this virus spreads. It's quite impossible to know beforehand what exactly should have been done. Hope all countries get along well as possible, think there is not really any silver bullet which model would suit all.

 

[geordiecolin]

Sweden themselves admit that they failed in many ways especially during spring. It also looks to be very different in different countries how this virus spreads. It's quite impossible to know beforehand what exactly should have been done. Hope all countries get along well as possible, think there is not really any silver bullet which model would suit all.

I agree that most counties treat their elderly terribly and in the UK Teachers,Carers and NHS staff among others where not given the level of protection that they deserved.
BTW. America's death figures are also likely to be down on recent years. I bet that will stick in the craw of Trump supporters

 

[colinsunderland]

Nothing, it's just the same handful of posters as per a few months ago who are abusive, and they all have one thing in common as well.

You and dealer? You are both sad little trolls who contribute nothing to the thread whatsoever apart from posting misinformation then refusing to back it up or discuss it when pulled on it.

 

[dealer wins]

You would feel very differently if you had no income for 10 months and your whole lifes work or business was being destroyed. Thats whats happening to millions of people right now.

 

[colinsunderland]

You would feel very differently if you had no income for 10 months and your whole lifes work or business was being destroyed. Thats whats happening to millions of people right now.

You think if that was happening to me, I would troll a casino forum? Laugh at people who died from a pandemic? And post constant lies?
I don't think so.

 

[electronictonic]

You and dealer? You are both sad little trolls who contribute nothing to the thread whatsoever apart from posting misinformation then refusing to back it up or discuss it when pulled on it.

Here you go, from the ONS statistics, just imagine if you never watched any TV or read any MSM news online between March 2019 and now and someone put that in front of you and said do you see a pandemic anywhere, what would your answer be?

 

[dealer wins]

Exactly, there has been no pandemic this year, and nothing that warrants viscous evil lockdowns that destroy society and will end up costing so many lives.

Also the poor will feel the brunt when the economic consequences kick in.

 

[colinsunderland]

Here you go, from the ONS statistics, just imagine if you never watched any TV or read any MSM news online between March 2019 and now and someone put that in front of you and said do you see a pandemic anywhere, what would your answer be?

I would ask for more information, the deaths are higher than they have been for 25 years, so I would think, hmmm, wonder if they are telling the truth, better look closer at that.

imagine if someone posted on a forum that the UN had said lockdown had caused 270 million deaths, but you couldn't find ANY report anywhere of them saying that. Would you think that person was a liar? What about if you asked them nicely where they got the figures from numerous times and got ignored every time? You would probably think they were a sad little troll.

 

[colinsunderland]

Exactly, there has been no pandemic this year, and nothing that warrants viscous evil lockdowns that destroy society and will end up costing so many lives.

Also the poor will feel the brunt when the economic consequences kick in.

you said a pandemic would be 2 million deaths, there has been 1,913,630. Can you explain how 1,913,630 deaths isn't a pandemic but 2,000,000 is?

 

[mina1929]

1,162 dead from Covid in the UK in the last 24 hours.

Australia has had less than 1000 Covid deaths during the entire pandemic.

From today's press conference.

View attachment 148697

It’s about 30 times bigger than the UK in land mass with about a third of the population. Along with the fact they don’t let people into their country willy-nilly, probably helped significantly.

I still think International travel has played a major part in spreading this virus. There we were, (the majority of us) playing our part during the first lockdown whilst still allowing thousands of people from all over the world into the country on a daily basis. Try and figure that out, an impossible scenario to police properly.

That is exactly right. Australia is a large Island and its not overly populated. We had the most cases in NSW a lot more tourists and people living there. I live in Newcastle just an hour and a half away from Sydney and we don't have any cases. We still have to wear mask at work though.

 

[dealer wins]

you said a pandemic would be 2 million deaths, there has been 1,913,630. Can you explain how 1,913,630 deaths isn't a pandemic but 2,000,000 is?

2,000,000 UK deaths.

2 million worldwide deaths is only 4% of all deaths.

In a worldwide pandemic, it would easily be the no1 cause of deaths for that year.

 

[mina1929]

So if there was no lock-down and people just did what they wanted and roamed around the country the virus would wipe out all the elderly also people with health issues

 

[mina1929]

2,000,000 UK deaths.

2 million worldwide deaths is only 4% of all deaths.

In a worldwide pandemic, it would easily be the no1 cause of deaths for that year.

View attachment 148774

What about 2020?

 

[geordiecolin]

2,000,000 UK deaths.

2 million worldwide deaths is only 4% of all deaths.

In a worldwide pandemic, it would easily be the no1 cause of deaths for that year.

View attachment 148774

I read recently that in New York (I think?) the number of road deaths had doubled this past year due to the roads being less congested.

 

[cncas2123]

I read recently that in New York (I think?) the number of road deaths had doubled this past year due to the roads being less congested.

The road deaths rose by around 12% in 2020, from 218 in 2019 to 243.
Coronavirus deaths in 2020 New York over 35,000....

 

[geordiecolin]

The road deaths rose by around 12% in 2020, from 218 in 2019 to 243.
Coronavirus deaths in 2020 New York over 35,000....

Cheers for that. I would have to look for where those figures came from and where

 

[mcgameboy]

Logging out now, this is not a good day for forum civility. what was ever wrong with agree to disagree, just as you would in real life.

Are there ANY actual good days now, mack?

And yes....I am being serious.

This forum, in its current state, is not anywhere near the forum that I once knew and loved.
It is now a pale shadow of its once great self.

And that was me being tactful. The honest version might have got me banned.

Yours heavy-heartedly
MCG

 

[slotplayer]

US lost 140k jobs here in Dec, after 7 straight months of job growth. Usually there is an uptick in jobs in Dec for xmas help.

 

[slotplayer]

I have my annual physical next week but the doctor's office called and canceled it and told me to reschedule it.

 

[bamberfishcake]

I have my annual physical next week but the doctor's office called and canceled it and told me to reschedule it.

Sorry to hear that.

Kids Nan has fallen and hurt her ankle. She's tried crutches but is laid up in bed with a bucket as the pain makes her feel sick. Doctor said to rest. No scan or x-ray and certainly no visit like the old days. Have to be on deaths door for them to visit in the UK now, or rich.

Obviously she cant really go to hospital and its the time a doctor should be stepping in really.

Coronavirus has certainly messed with a lot of things.

 

[colinsunderland]

2 girls travel 5 miles for exercise and get £200 fines, never mind the law (again) Derbyshire Police.

Meanwhile there are 1000's of more 'deserving' cases out there that they somehow ignore, like the local smackheads queuing for their methadone at chemists with no masks and pretty much sitting on top of each other, or the many houseparties that still go on etc.

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[colinsunderland]

Sorry to hear that.

Kids Nan has fallen and hurt her ankle. She's tried crutches but is laid up in bed with a bucket as the pain makes her feel sick. Doctor said to rest. No scan or x-ray and certainly no visit like the old days. Have to be on deaths door for them to visit in the UK now, or rich.

Obviously she cant really go to hospital and its the time a doctor should be stepping in really.

Coronavirus has certainly messed with a lot of things.

Hope she recovers quickly, but if it's bad then she could go to a minor injuries clinic, they are mainly Covid free in most places.

 

[dionysus]

I have my annual physical next week but the doctor's office called and canceled it and told me to reschedule it.

Mine was March -was cancelled and shes still not seeing patients, nearly a yr later