Brexit - whats the difference.....

[geordiecolin]

I'll wait and see what Labour's first budget is. The grab on the pensioner winter fuel allowance doesn't bode well but the argument is there it's means tested and removes it from those who don't need it. Why they chose to start with that though I have no idea.

If Labour come out swinging next month, like, seriously, to start to try and properly tax wealth in the UK and put that money into public services for the majority, and some basic redistributive measures, then that would give me some hope on the direction of travel. (Capital Gains Tax is an obvious one, why should money accrued via doing basically nothing attract a lower tax rate than that accrued by actually going out to work?)

Rishi Sunak's net worth is six hundred and fifty million pounds, and on most of his income he was paying 22% tax as he was taking it as Capital Gains.

So I'll wait for the first budget at least, and appraise from there.

They chose the pensioner poverty grab as a statement of intent. 4 years to introduce slowly the WEF agenda will ushure in a raft of globalist agender's and this uniparty will not care which party is in charge unless a party of substance emerges to change our direction.
Given that your so political what is your prediction for the forthcoming years under labour?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

They chose the pensioner poverty grab as a statement of intent. 4 years to introduce slowly the WEF agenda will ushure in a raft of globalist agender's and this uniparty will not care which party is in charge unless a party of substance emerges to change our direction.
Given that your so political what is your prediction for the forthcoming years under labour?

I still say give Labour the chance of their first budget. When Starmer says 'things will get worse before they get better', he'd better not be referring to the majority of people in the UK, who have just had a thoroughly rotten 14 years under the Tories and need a government to show them that better choices are available.

I understand and appreciate that you can't go 'full retard' (TM Tropic Thunder) as Truss did with her and Kwarteng's psycho mini-budget, but there is money in the UK, lots of it. We're still the sixth largest economy in the world, the idea that in-work poverty should be a thing is offensive. Anyone working 40 hours a work in any job, should have enough to cover all the essentials for a decent standard of living and a bit left over for treats. We're also rich enough to properly take care of our sick and disabled, instead of subjecting them to the performative cruelty and breadline survival the Tories inflicted on them over the last 14 years.

UK government debt has increased 800 billion pounds since Covid (just pause for a second and get your head around that number, it's close to one trillion pounds). Where's all that money gone? Who's got it now? One person's debt is someone else's asset. Start getting some of that money back through taxation and direct it back to the people whose name the debt was issued in. (i.e. Everyone in the UK, as Margaret Thatcher famously said, governments don't have their own money, just what they collect in taxes.)

There is a way to start to unfuck all of this, the big question is whether or not Starmer's Labour has the courage to actually do it. Once we've seen their first budget, we'll have a pretty good idea which way things are going to go.

 

[dunover]

I still say give Labour the chance of their first budget. When Starmer says 'things will get worse before they get better', he'd better not be referring to the majority of people in the UK, who have just had a thoroughly rotten 14 years under the Tories and need a government to show them that better choices are available.

I understand and appreciate that you can't go 'full retard' (TM Tropic Thunder) as Truss did with her and Kwarteng's psycho mini-budget, but there is money in the UK, lots of it. We're still the sixth largest economy in the world, the idea that in-work poverty should be a thing is offensive. Anyone working 40 hours a work in any job, should have enough to cover all the essentials for a decent standard of living and a bit left over for treats. We're also rich enough to properly take care of our sick and disabled, instead of subjecting them to the performative cruelty and breadline survival the Tories inflicted on them over the last 14 years.

UK government debt has increased 800 billion pounds since Covid (just pause for a second and get your head around that number, it's close to one trillion pounds). Where's all that money gone? Who's got it now? One person's debt is someone else's asset. Start getting some of that money back through taxation and direct it back to the people whose name the debt was issued in. (i.e. Everyone in the UK, as Margaret Thatcher famously said, governments don't have their own money, just what they collect in taxes.)

There is a way to start to unfuck all of this, the big question is whether or not Starmer's Labour has the courage to actually do it. Once we've seen their first budget, we'll have a pretty good idea which way things are going to go.

Apparently he's going to send the poorest pensioners to Rwanda for winter to keep warm. The flights on full aircraft are cheaper than the £400 winter fuel allowance. Good housekeeping! Bingo in Kigali anyone?

 

[mack341]

I still say give Labour the chance of their first budget. When Starmer says 'things will get worse before they get better', he'd better not be referring to the majority of people in the UK, who have just had a thoroughly rotten 14 years under the Tories and need a government to show them that better choices are available.

I understand and appreciate that you can't go 'full retard' (TM Tropic Thunder) as Truss did with her and Kwarteng's psycho mini-budget, but there is money in the UK, lots of it. We're still the sixth largest economy in the world, the idea that in-work poverty should be a thing is offensive. Anyone working 40 hours a work in any job, should have enough to cover all the essentials for a decent standard of living and a bit left over for treats. We're also rich enough to properly take care of our sick and disabled, instead of subjecting them to the performative cruelty and breadline survival the Tories inflicted on them over the last 14 years.

UK government debt has increased 800 billion pounds since Covid (just pause for a second and get your head around that number, it's close to one trillion pounds). Where's all that money gone? Who's got it now? One person's debt is someone else's asset. Start getting some of that money back through taxation and direct it back to the people whose name the debt was issued in. (i.e. Everyone in the UK, as Margaret Thatcher famously said, governments don't have their own money, just what they collect in taxes.)

There is a way to start to unfuck all of this, the big question is whether or not Starmer's Labour has the courage to actually do it. Once we've seen their first budget, we'll have a pretty good idea which way things are going to go.

So if you take the furlough money covering wages (for average jobs, though the offices in the city of London were also empty) plus business loans given out to firms that were made to cease business (non essential).

How much of this 800 billion left would you find after these two additional costs to govt from the lockdown policy.

A little shop that was forced to close would still have to pay their landlord, hence the loan.

No doubt millions were spaffed, but not sure any blunt wealth tax is going to fairly retrieve it from those that benefitted from covid spending.

You're right, we have got to wait for the budget, though literally with his hoc majority and threats of whip removal for dissenters, he can pretty much do anything. Might get to a "straw that breaks the camel's back" moment, but suspect he's too crafty for that to happen.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

So if you take the furlough money covering wages (for average jobs, though the offices in the city of London were also empty) plus business loans given out to firms that were made to cease business (non essential).

How much of this 800 billion left would you find after these two additional costs to govt from the lockdown policy.

A little shop that was forced to close would still have to pay their landlord, hence the loan.

No doubt millions were spaffed, but not sure any blunt wealth tax is going to fairly retrieve it from those that benefitted from covid spending.

You're right, we have got to wait for the budget, though literally with his hoc majority and threats of whip removal for dissenters, he can pretty much do anything. Might get to a "straw that breaks the camel's back" moment, but suspect he's too crafty for that to happen.

The point is where the money ended up mack. All that furlough money just went through the people receiving it, they didn't get to keep it.

If you get £1000 in furlough money and pay your £1000 rent with it, then your net financial position is precisely the same as it was before, someone else has that £1000 now, which has been added onto the government's balance sheet as a new debt. Except it wasn't £1000, it was eight hundred billion pounds.

You know what's coming....... GARY

Honestly mack, it's worth taking 30 minutes out of your day for this. This guy basically predicted everything that was coming at the start of Covid, when all the prevailing conventional economic wisdom was saying something else. Here he goes back to review his own work as it were, four years later. (Spoiler alert - He called it right.)

I also bought and read his book, which I'd also recommend if you're minded to do so.

 

[mack341]

Haha thanks to youtube autoplay, I've already listened to parts of Gary's life story while drifting in and out of sleep, semi-awake.

I'll try and give it a listen but can't promise to finish 30 mins!

Gary would've probably appealed to me in 1994, but I fear the situation now is far more complex than any simple wealth distribution would solve, anyone can be alarmed at disparity in this country, gold Lamborghinis driving around mayfair while someone else is deciding between the budget baked beans or ordinary supermarket.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The Brexit slow puncture continues to leak air out of the UK economy.

One thing I am genuinely interested to see over the course of this parliament is where Starmer goes with this, there's that renegotiation of the EU trade agreement up next year. Labour need a win on the economy, and the lowest hanging fruit of all is improving our trading relationship with the EU.

I honestly don't think most people care too much where 'things getting better' comes from now. If they feel like they have more money in their pocket, against a backdrop of lower interest rates and inflation, and a generally rosier economic outlook, Labour will get the credit for that at the next GE.

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[mack341]

Interesting, think Germany have paused Schengen recently as well. Countries need flexibility in the real world, that's a struggle for the EU because of their 'you must obey EU rules' mindset.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Interesting, think Germany have paused Schengen recently as well. Countries need flexibility in the real world, that's a struggle for the EU because of their 'you must obey EU rules' mindset.

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And they're doing these things whilst still EU members.

The EU isn't perfect, it's never been perfect, it never will be perfect. I've never made that claim here at CM, I've simply argued that on balance, we're better off in than out, and that has proved to be 100% true since we left transition in 2020.

The EU has always been about negotiations and compromises and horse-trading.

Here's John Major putting it in very simple English.

 

[geordiecolin]

Interesting, think Germany have paused Schengen recently as well. Countries need flexibility in the real world, that's a struggle for the EU because of their 'you must obey EU rules' mindset.

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They are just half heartedly trying to shrug off all of their people who are anti immigration. They know that it only takes one nation to vote against it and its dead.
The real and only option they have is to leave the EU which they will only do if there was a revolution.

 

[mack341]

And they're doing these things whilst still EU members.

The EU isn't perfect, it's never been perfect, it never will be perfect. I've never made that claim here at CM, I've simply argued that on balance, we're better off in than out, and that has proved to be 100% true since we left transition in 2020.

The EU has always been about negotiations and compromises and horse-trading.

Here's John Major putting it in very simple English.

On the whole 2015/6 is looking better than where we are now, but I put that more down to successive targetting of our own foot than leaving the EU.

If we're losing out on significant export trade with the EU, compared to other outside nations, then we must've ****ed up with the deal we obtained.

Maybe the EU will formalise a two tier system, one being trade matters only, the other the full monty.

 

[mack341]

They are just half heartedly trying to shrug off all of their people who are anti immigration. They know that it only takes one nation to vote against it and its dead.
The real and only option they have is to leave the EU which they will only do if there was a revolution.

I did read comment that it was more a request in the future, basically to make folk feel something is being done.

But years ago even this step would be unheard of, so perhaps better than nowt.

The problems aren't going to go away, and doubt the economy will boom to ameliorate the situation.

 

[geordiecolin]

Could tariffs be the end of the EU?

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Oh good I was waiting to find out what was going to 'end the EU' next, it's been about thirty different things over the last couple of decades and yet there it is, still there!