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49% VP

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Avatar73, May 25, 2007.

    May 25, 2007
  1. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    Just played JoB full pay VP, wagering 20 credits per hand.

    After 35 hands I was down 355 credits :what:

    That's a return of (35*20-355)/(25*20) = 49.28%

    I only seem to get bad luck at VP recently!:cool:
     
  2. May 25, 2007
  3. happygobrokey

    happygobrokey Dormant account

    Occupation:
    student of life
    Location:
    canada
    FYP. but what is the standard deviation? was this single hand or multihand? vp has killer variance especially one-handed. if you hit a royal in your session the payout for the session would be like 10000%. and of course if you "double-upped" then every win is only a .5 win for each double since you throw all those would-be winning pulls away in the calculation of payout on that session. ime the 50-hand-job does well to minimize variance (as low as 5 pennies/line times 50 lines = $2.50 minimum bet [for max payout] ), and i like to double up to make 1 or 2 times bet size win doubling at least once or twice each pull unless the win is maybe more than 5x bet size. i have made some nice wins on vp in this way when the bonus forced me not to play bj, and if variance is killing me i will switch to a different game once 50-75% of my stack is gone. it's still a good game, some vp's can even have a negative house edge :thumbsup:
     
  4. May 25, 2007
  5. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    FYP?

    Soz yeah, it was 4-hand JoB, 5 credits/hand, 20 credits each bet.

    And you are correct; according to my calculations I'm only negative 1.5 standard deviations, so it's not mega surprising. But feels mega unlucky! lol.
     
  6. May 25, 2007
  7. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    SHEESH!

    How bad is this?

    Single deck BJ

    52 hands

    12 wins
    2 DB wins

    3 pushes

    29 losses
    4 DB losses

    8 losses in a row

    56% single losses! :eek: not sure if I will ever play at this casino again!
     
  8. May 25, 2007
  9. liquidsoap

    liquidsoap Dormant account

    Occupation:
    my self
    Location:
    home
    Variance happens!
    I have seen a lot worse posted then what you are posting.
     
  10. May 26, 2007
  11. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    lol, its true. But it was incessant. I lost about 10 bets in a row, won one, then lost another 10! several times. SD BJ maybe, but return of 99.7% I think not!

    Anyway I can't complain coz I ended up 100 up over 2500, but only coz I got lucky on a couple of big bets. It happily sucked 1/hand out of me for a loooooong time.
     
  12. Jun 5, 2007
  13. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    Everything seems to be against me! I lose consistently over VP, losing every session in the last 2 weeks, even with bonuses.

    Today I lost 65 units betting 365.
    I also lost 470 units betting 1000 units on holdem bonus poker.

    Thats a return of 81% and 53% respectively.

    Why does it suck so badly!?
     
  14. Jun 5, 2007
  15. SlotMonster

    SlotMonster SoftSwiss Representative webmeister

    Occupation:
    Manager
    Location:
    Somewhere in eternity
    I think it's just downstreak.
    And I ask you do not forget that average of distribution (or standard deviation or) works properly only for looooong distance. I mean you should place many-many-many bets (10 000 bets for session or more) and only in this case if your return was toooo small - you can tell us about this.
    Regards.
     
  16. Jun 5, 2007
  17. gerilege

    gerilege Meister Member PABnorogue PABrogue

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    Hungary
    I got some logfiles from a guy who claims that he lost 50 units playing 80 rounds of BJ. The logfile shows only losing 26 units during 45 rounds, but he claims that he lost 23 units before that during the previous 35 rounds, but he couldn't query the older logs, and I tend to believe him.

    If I think about his session, I like my own sessions.
     
  18. Jun 5, 2007
  19. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    lol, true! sure, I know its variance, and im not saying anything is rigged...... just that I am being MEGA unlucky at the moment! and it's really hacking me off!

    Worst thing is, there's no guarantees it will get any better in the long run :(

    Here's a question..... why is it, that if you have a really big winning session, you'll have a massive loosing one, to bring it back to down to the house edge, as ud expect.

    But, when you have a massive loosing session.... there's no memory! Next time you'll probably lose just as bad as well! Its v annoying!
     
  20. Jun 5, 2007
  21. soflat

    soflat Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Scientist
    Location:
    Florida
    Don't worry, you'll get a few big wins close together eventually. Just keep playing ;).
     
  22. Jun 8, 2007
  23. Zoozie

    Zoozie Ueber Meister CAG PABnonaccred

    Occupation:
    Software Developer
    Location:
    Denmark
    You can use my JoB simulator here:
    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums...simulator.html?highlight=simulator#post117150
    And start the program with (35 games, 4 lines, log every 35 games)
    java poker.JoBSimulator 35 4 35

    I did 1000 simulations (changed to program instead of running the above simulation 1000 times of course)
    Each line is the payout% for that simulation. As you can see it is not rare to get close to 50% payout, and this is because it is only over 35 games. If it was over 1000's of games it would not happen.

    Zoozie
     
    1 person likes this.
  24. Jun 8, 2007
  25. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    Thanks Zoozie! I know it's all within variance (although to be honest 49% is VERY unlucky), but yeah.... it still sucks! I seem to just have been losing at everything recently!

    And losing 470 units of 1000 bet in Texas Bonus, with 5 unit ante? Dang.

    And to top it off, I got 3 different monthly bonuses for BJ. I tried betting half my bankroll until I doubled or bust. Twice I won one and then lost 3. And once I just lost 2. It just gets irritating!

    PS I nabbed your program from your other thread and did a few sims before as well - but thanks for the data! Nice program.
     
  26. Jun 8, 2007
  27. happygobrokey

    happygobrokey Dormant account

    Occupation:
    student of life
    Location:
    canada
    i'm not really trying to say it's rigged, but it just really really sucks and i'm 4 sigmas below the mean, i mean holy zomg...:rolleyes:

    i move for a brags/beats/variance/sob-stories section added to the forum:thumbsup:
     
  28. Jun 8, 2007
  29. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
  30. Jun 15, 2007
  31. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    argh! In 35 hands of JoB I hit 2 4oaK and still ended up only breaking even! :mad:
    "I'm not saying it's rigged, just that its been screwing me lately!"

    At least its not another 15 unit loss :p
     
  32. Oct 5, 2007
  33. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Pilot
    Location:
    UK
    Finally!

    At last! There is some justice in this universe O : )
    There was a pair of 5's in the middle of those 3, and I almost held those instead :what: good job I double checked!
     

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