32Red - Dodgy Blackjack?

[Avatar73]

Ok, well I think the BJ at 32Red is a bit weird.

It's standard Atlantic, 2 units per hand, 600 hands required.

In the last 4 months I put in 32 for a 32 bonus. So a total of 64.
At 2 per hand, that's a 32 "unit" wallet, when betting 1 "unit" on each hand. A total of 600 HANDS is required (not units).
Every time, I have busted out on about 100-200 hands.

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Do the maths there. With a "bonus" of 64, 2 per hand, chance of going bust first (ie not making a "gain") is 0.135. So the chance of busting out like that 3 times in a row is 0.135^4 = 0.0003322 or 1 in 3010?

Now, those aren't impossible odds, and I'm sure someone will jump in and say that the maths isn't quite exact, due to not meeting WR, but surely the chance of busting out even earlier is even lower? Also, the 0.865 chance of gain would presumeably include all the occasions where you drop below "zero" and then regain some, so wouldn't be quite so high if you stop at the first chance of 0.

It just seems to suck my money at the mo.

Othertimes it works the other way! Wagering 5,000 left me 350 higher than what I started with once (and the was Euro BJ!) which is well outside 2 SD!

It seems that 32Red either gives you unbelieveable poor luck or massively good luck. I either bong out and lose it all v quickly, or end up with over 100. Anyone else notice this?

 

[aka23]

The "chance of gain" result in the calculator you linked to assumes unlimited bankroll (mentioned in comments below calc). It is not applicable to evaluate chance of busting with a limited bankroll. Later this month, I will have a return/variance simulator which does evaluate risk of busting with a limited bankroll.

For chance of bust, I recommend risk of ruin tables such as the ones at

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or at the bottom of the blackjack page on my site. Both tables indicate a risk of bust of a little under 30% for the situation you described. You can reduce the risk to less by choosing a game with 1 unit bets. I recall that a few of the BJ versions have one unit bets, but don't recall which ones.

Note that the 32 red bonus does not require 600 2-unit hands, due to doubles and splits increasing the bet size of the final hand to larger than the initial bet. Instead, it should require ~530 hands.

 

[Avatar73]

Thanks!

Note that I did mention that because of busting it would be different, but certainly 30% bust makes the situation a lot more likely!

There may be some with a 1 bet option, but then those ones dont have autoplay, i think, and therefore aren't really worth spendin 2 hours plus on to squeak out a (reasonably) lower bust %.

When i win, i seem to win decent, and I'd rather win less over a longer period but spend next to no time on it, rather than squeeze more money and spend forever doing it - after all, time is money!

I also realise that you don't need 600 HANDS (I didn't mention the reason, which you have given already!). However, on the autoplay you can't specify a bet amount, and there's no easy way to see the total amount bet (logs only do per hand, so you would have to go thru each hand and add it all up).
Besides, it's worth betting an extra 70 hands ~ 140 just for the autoplay feature and just to "overbet" a bit and reduce chance of being a "bonus abuser" !

Anyway, thanks for the observations! A bust calc would be nifty. This is also why i kinda like "get the bonus at the end" schemes. This forces you to play out WR - obv you could lose a lot more in the end, but like in this case, presumeably it would decrease chance of bust to make chance of "not losing deposit and bonus" 0.85.

Does this mean, you would be better sticking in say 200 and always letting it get to the end of 600 hands no matter what? Obv you could lose more, but would you in fact more often than not, end up better off?

 

[ssgtsnelly]

avator, scroll down to the bottom of the blackjacks and look for vegas strip single deck, can do 1 on that and still autoplay enjoy

 

[Avatar73]

okely dokely! Thanks for el tippo!

I'm sure the odds were worse tho? Or it didn't have autoplay? I'm sure I checked out all their offerings.

Maybe this is a new game, or maybe I just missed something!
And anyway, even if the HE is say 0.6 instead of say 0.4, the *much* lower bust rate from 1/hand probably makes up for this!

 

[tim5ny]

I like to go bust early while the sun is still shining and there's still time left in the day to do something.

 

[KasinoKing]

Ok, well I think the BJ at 32Red is a bit weird.

It's standard Atlantic, 2 units per hand, 600 hands required.

In the last 4 months I put in 32 for a 32 bonus. So a total of 64.
At 2 per hand, that's a 32 "unit" wallet, when betting 1 "unit" on each hand. A total of 600 HANDS is required (not units).
Every time, I have busted out on about 100-200 hands.

Sounds to me like you are trying to 'abuse' their generous monthly offer.
(Why else would a player want to wager 1200 flatbetting at BJ...?)
All I can do is ask that you please don't do that.
All that will happen in the end is that you will be excluded from future monthly offers.

Just my 2c.

 

[Gaahl]

Abuse? How is it abuse when it is allowed in the T&C?

 

[ssgtsnelly]

gaahl he is describing bonus bagging and they dont like it too much, although if you lose it all back to them on another game then im sure they are more than happy to keep letting you play

 

[cslate]

Be carefull

Of who has a vested interest in 32red....

 

[chuchu59]

While I am sure that this is not bonus abuse, I am also certain that KK has no vested interest in 32RED. When some casinos dont pay where there are legitimate wins, he takes em off his list.

IMO this player just likes to play BJ and thinks he has a good chance of getting ahead with the bonus. I dont know about normal MGs but this game (Atlantic) sucks in the flash casino in poker rooms. Try them if you dare. Losses are almost certainly guaranteed.

 

[cslate]

hang it up....no matter what you say about 32red......they are the best.

lol

it seems some people here have a monetary intrest......

go some where else if you want an unbiased opinion of 32red.

 

[chuchu59]

Well, how would you feel if I told you they closed all my accounts?

 

[cslate]

lol

doesnt surprise me

 

[Avatar73]

I like to go bust early while the sun is still shining and there's still time left in the day to do something.

Tho when you're on autoplay it makes little difference when you go bust - but when you get back from the sun it just depends if you have anything left or not!

 

[Avatar73]

Sounds to me like you are trying to 'abuse' their generous monthly offer.
(Why else would a player want to wager 1200 flatbetting at BJ...?)
All I can do is ask that you please don't do that.
All that will happen in the end is that you will be excluded from future monthly offers.

Just my 2c.

Well, regular as clockwork they always invite me back for the next monthly bonus! Besides, i lost a total of 128 over the last 4 months, so why should they complain? And I always compelte the WR plus a bit extra, so its not complete abuse. And if they allow it then why not do it? If they ban me it saves me losing my 32 quid each month!

Seems if you make a winning you stand to get banned anywhere. I got banned (well, just no invite!) at river belle, cus i won a couple of months in a row. And BetFred banned me for "only playing with a bonus" despite the fact their bonus is weekly, so its a bit hard not to end up with one, and also the fact i ended up risking 1200 of my own money martingaling plus i wagered an extra 500 when their system screwed and didnt realease my money! it was obv just cus i was ahead that i got banned.

 

[SlotsWizard]

okely dokely! Thanks for el tippo!

I'm sure the odds were worse tho? Or it didn't have autoplay? I'm sure I checked out all their offerings.

Maybe this is a new game, or maybe I just missed something!
And anyway, even if the HE is say 0.6 instead of say 0.4, the *much* lower bust rate from 1/hand probably makes up for this!

Regarding Vegas Strip blackjack - according to the Wizard of Odds, this game has the lowest house edge of all MG blackjack variants except Classic Blackjack, which doesn't have Autoplay. So Vegas Strip is your best bet with Autoplay.

 

[aka23]

Regarding Vegas Strip blackjack - according to the Wizard of Odds, this game has the lowest house edge of all MG blackjack variants except Classic Blackjack, which doesn't have Autoplay. So Vegas Strip is your best bet with Autoplay.

Without composition dependent exceptions, Vegas Single Deck and Vegas Strip have nearly the same house edge. With composition dependent exceptions Vegas Single Deck is significantly lower. Atlantic City is also a good choice, as the difference in house edge between Atlantic City and Vegas Strip is <0.01%. For the purposes of the 32 Red wagering, small differences in house like this are not particularly important. A 0.01% difference in house edge works out to difference in EV of about 11 cents over a $1200 wagering requirement, like the 32 Red monthly bonus.

 

[SlotsWizard]

Without composition dependent exceptions, Vegas Single Deck and Vegas Strip have nearly the same house edge. With composition dependent exceptions Vegas Single Deck is significantly lower. Atlantic City is also a good choice, as the difference in house edge between Atlantic City and Vegas Strip is <0.01%

Atlantic City is my favorite MG blackjack, mostly because of the low house edge but also because of the surrender option. I like Vegas Single Deck as well and have in the past had very good luck with it, but I don't like that feeling of hopelessness you get when you're dealt 16 vs. a dealer 10 which, unlike with ACBJ, you have little control over.

And now I will take this moment to rant against the nearly universal correct strategy of hitting a 12 against dealer 2 or 3: I HATE IT!! I get a 10 more than 90% of the time (estimate) when hitting a 12! Rant over.

 

[Avatar73]

And now I will take this moment to rant against the nearly universal correct strategy of hitting a 12 against dealer 2 or 3: I HATE IT!! I get a 10 more than 90% of the time (estimate) when hitting a 12! Rant over.

Yes!!! This drives me nuts!

If you had a really large bet on, would you still hit? Say, 500+ ?

 

[tim5ny]

I don't think that 32Red or any MG casino can manipulate the software one iota! This thread should be a complaint against the software, not a specific casino. There was a time when Pat or Ed would jump on a thread like this and solve the matter quickly, quietly, and always in favor of the player... usually giving them far more than they deserved. I've noticed that they don't come around here as much anymore and who can blame them? I think there's been a few people who noticed the trend! Anyone who made a complaint on the public forum got rewarded generously from 32Red. The last episode that I can remember is when they gave a guy 500 Euros because he was making such a stink here on the forum. No strings attached. Much more than he lost. Then in the following weeks and months he did the same thing again and worked some "hush money" out of the casino again although he didn't deserve a dime. I accused him of being a greedy bastard and told him that his game was apparant to all. His reply was one of arrogance and admittance to the accusations, saying that if he could use the forum to get himself a Sweet little bonus"... then he would! I don't blame Pat for staying away from this bullshit these days. Some people just try to capitalize on his good nature.

Avatar, I don't see you really slamming the specific casino as much as the game itself... so you should've titled the thread differently!

 

[Avatar73]

hahaha! Well if they offered me free money, then i wouldn't exactly say no!

But that was NEVER the intention of this thread! I'm NOT complaning as such, just it has been a bit weird, thats all. Either very high (comparative) wins, or quick busts - so im not going to complain about the wins!

No they cannot manipulate it, and I'm not saying they do. Reason tells me it's all conincidence, but I was just wondering if anyone else experienced similar.
Fair point, not a dig at 32R in any way; but that's about the only MG I do and it was there. Rename thread if you wish - be my guest!

Also, please read and note I am not slamming anything, just saying it's a bit weird. Decent wins are certainly not slamming, and i said i had these!

Anyway yeah, good point, also rubbish that people would abuse a casinos good nature not cool.

On another point, BetDirect has not been too great recently! I phoned up to change cards, and they did it only asking a username - no security or anything! Then I try to deposit and it just takes me back to the bank screen, no indication as to whether or not it worked or failed, but nothing has turned up in my account. Now I have mysteriously been charged some money, but still nothing in my account (NOTE: This amount is still "pending" so *may* be from something else anyway!). Either way, i wasn't bowled over by security, or their malfunctioning deposit screen! Now who was it that said in another thread that they get your money the same day ?

 

[tim5ny]

I did mention that you were not slamming the casino in particular.. but moreso the game in question. (and I cannot change the name of the thread!)

 

[SlotsWizard]

Yes!!! This drives me nuts!

If you had a really large bet on, would you still hit? Say, 500+ ?

I would be very afraid to deviate from the mathematically best play, so I would make certain I made the play with the highest EV.

 

[aka23]

It's a close call... so close that the optimal strategy may differ depending on the specific cards that compose your 12. For single-deck 12 vs 3, I list strategy as hit with two cards, and stand with 3+ cards. With more decks, there are also exceptions that may occur on 3+ card hands, but not enough to change a general strategy rule.

 

[Avatar73]

I did mention that you were not slamming the casino in particular.. but moreso the game in question. (and I cannot change the name of the thread!)

ok! soz! also i realise this but any mods how happen to think the same as you (and now me!) will already have their answer.

Hmmm, I think i would probably hit and then start hitting again - but this time the desk, and if i drew a 10!

 

[tim5ny]

ok! soz! also i realise this but any mods how happen to think the same as you (and now me!) will already have their answer.

Hmmm, I think i would probably hit and then start hitting again - but this time the desk, and if i drew a 10!

Sorry if it seems like I'm picking on you! You seem like a nice guy, and that wasn't my intention. I just wanted to add my 2cents about Microgaming software being the same no matter where you play.

 

[Avatar73]

Sorry if it seems like I'm picking on you! You seem like a nice guy, and that wasn't my intention. I just wanted to add my 2cents about Microgaming software being the same no matter where you play.

lol, no problemo! thanks... you're dead right as well. It's easy to equate software and casino, but also important to seperate them when making a point!

Casino name = C/S, bonuses, payments.
Software = Dodgey games, glitches, unfairness.

Right, got it now! O

 

[ThodorisK]

Here's the calculator you want:

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put 11.3 in the box "standard deviation per 100 hands".

 

[NASHVEGAS]

I would be very afraid to deviate from the mathematically best play, so I would make certain I made the play with the highest EV.

Just a couple curveballs pursuant to the thread, in a B&M, counting (even a simple hi/lo) determines the best EV for hitting your 12 against the dealer's 2 and 3 and a possible deviation from even the optimal EV (basic strategy)....... In a BJ game where you can not surrender your 16 against the dealers 9,10 or A ,every basic strategy card or similiar will dictate a hit. However, consider holding on a 3 card 16 against the dealer's 10 that includes a 4 and/or 5 especially the smaller number of decks being played. It will make very little difference mathematically in the long term but is actually the proper play. This does not assume any counting just a proper variation of basic strategy that does not show on any simple basic strategy cards.

 

[Avatar73]

Here's the calculator you want:

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put 11.3 in the box "standard deviation per 100 hands".

Thanks! So.... Risk of Ruin = 14.656%

So busting 4 times in a row, is 0.14656^4 = 0.00046138325148368896

Or 1 in 2167.

Is that unlucky or is that dodgey maths !?

 

[aka23]

Thanks! So.... Risk of Ruin = 14.656%

So busting 4 times in a row, is 0.14656^4 = 0.00046138325148368896

Or 1 in 2167.

Is that unlucky or is that dodgey maths !?

I very much doubt risk of ruin is 14.7% for this situation, as the tables on both Wizard's site and my site estimate nearly double that for the bet = 2 case. The result should be nearly 28%.

 

[NASHVEGAS]

I very much doubt risk of ruin is 14.7% for this situation, as the tables on both Wizard's site and my site estimate nearly double that for the bet = 2 case. The result should be nearly 28%.

I saw that figure and said I gotta quit cause my academia obviously failed me, going to demand all my tution be refunded a la a Actor Edward........TX, AKA for setting the record straight as that is the approximate figure I calculated but I do not know why I wasted my time because I really do know my RoR is 100% and 99% for others. All this mumbo jumbo! This aiinnn'ttt MIT or even Stanford (congrats on your big win this past w-e).

 

[Avatar73]

Ok for arguments sake say that chance of busy is 30%.

4 times in a row, 0.3^4 = 0.0081 or 0.81%

And then what happens today? I try vegas single deck at betDirect and lose 45 over 1000 hands!

Plus in 500 hands of pai-gow somewhere else, I lost 60

I'm not complaning as such..... but it does suck to get on the bad side of mr. variance!

At lease my video poker is behaving itself at the moment .... for the moment, anyway!

I'm jus hacked off with pouring $$$ in to an autoplay with seemingly only 1 outcome! Did they suddenly hijack the strategy tables!?

 

[EasyRhino]

I prefer MG's single deck games for a few reasons:

1) lower edge
2) possibility of using composition-dependent strategy
3) Most importantly, I think these probably have reduced variance. There's no possibility of having one hand baloon into a monster with 4 splits and a double on each hand. The most than any one hand can do is be double in size.

If you're betting a sizable chunk of your total, it's useful to have a better handle on what your max bet might be.

 

[aka23]

This aiinnn'ttt MIT or even Stanford (congrats on your big win this past w-e).

"Or even Stanford"? I had a professor an engineering professor at Stanford who called MIT "the Stanford of the east." Stanford is just as good as MIT in several tech fields. For example, an article in MITs newsletter brags about their grad school being rated #2 in the country in my field... Stanford was rated #1.

 

[NASHVEGAS]

"Or even Stanford"? I had a professor an engineering professor at Stanford who called MIT "the Stanford of the east." Stanford is just as good as MIT in several tech fields. For example, an article in MITs newsletter brags about their grad school being rated #2 in the country in my field... Stanford was rated #1.

You know that and obviously I know they are both for the best of the best, but I mentioned MIT first not on account that it is not necessarily "the Stanford of the East." but most at this gambling forum should associate MIT with BJ than I assume your alma mater (and currently Stanford is actually known for upsetting the #1 football team, USC, in the country this past w-e rather than it's Numbero Uno academic programs,aiiinnnn'ttttt somethings just crazy at times). So now I hope all is well in the world

 

[Avatar73]

hmmm ... well, that's all American, and all the same to me!

 

[Simmo!]

but most at this gambling forum should associate MIT with BJ

I associate them with

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for what it's worth

 

[aka23]

You know that and obviously I know they are both for the best of the best, but I mentioned MIT first not on account that it is not necessarily "the Stanford of the East." but most at this gambling forum should associate MIT with BJ than I assume your alma mater (and currently Stanford is actually known for upsetting the #1 football team, USC, in the country this past w-e rather than it's Numbero Uno academic programs,aiiinnnn'ttttt somethings just crazy at times). So now I hope all is well in the world

Many associate Stanford with BJ too. Stanford Wong has a PhD from Stanford. His birth name is John Furgison. He chose the pen name "Stanford" after the school. I've seen his name mentioned on the forum a few times, as well as all the main BJ sites. Wong is a key figure in the world of card counting and is responsible for one of the main strategies ("wonging") that made the famous MIT BJ teams successful.

Stanford places a surprising degree of emphasis on sports, with their academic reputation. They do well in many of the lesser known sports, often winning several national championships per year, but generally not football. It's good to see their win with against USC.

 

[NASHVEGAS]

Many associate Stanford with BJ too. Stanford Wong has a PhD from Stanford. His birth name is John Furgison. He chose the pen name "Stanford" after the school. I've seen his name mentioned on the forum a few times, as well as all the main BJ sites. Wong is a key figure in the world of card counting and is responsible for one of the main strategies ("wonging") that made the famous MIT BJ teams successful.

Stanford places a surprising degree of emphasis on sports, with their academic reputation. They do well in many of the lesser known sports, often winning several national championships per year, but generally not football. It's good to see their win with against USC.

Quite aware of BJ21.com. I never have met Mr.Wong and not a green chipper but we do know some of the same people. I am willing to bet he also posts at this forum and I think (not sure) like myself he was 86ed from the Venetian.

 

[NASHVEGAS]

I associate them with

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for what it's worth

Yeah me too but who would thuunnnkk a muppet had a clue???????