- Joined
- Feb 25, 2004
- Location
- East Coast, USA
Anyone noticed that the house has a distinct edge when doubling up on Jacks or Better Video Poker? I noticed this at both microgaming casinos where I was playing and decided to check it out statistically. According to the customer service people at both casinos the cards dealt when doubling are randomly generated. HAH! I sent this information to both casinos. Know what I got back - NOTHING.
I documented and analyzed 308 hands of Jacks or Better poker on which I attempted to double my winnings. Realizing that what card you start with is not the critical factor, but the cards that are dealt to the house and what chances your card has to beat it. Since the house is dealt four cards, you have a 0% chance (all house cards are higher), 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% (all house cards are lower). Here were the results:
On 242 hands on which I attempted to double $5 in winnings to $10, the house had a distinct and clear edge of 4%, based on the means, with 41 percent of hands having a less than 50% chance of winning and only 37 percent of hands have greater than 50% chance of winning.
It becomes even worse when attempting to double $10 in winnings to $20. Although there were only 62 hands, this is quite enough to come up with an everage and a mean that should only vary slightly from a larger number of hands. The house edge in this situation was 7%, with only 33% of the hands having a greater than 50% chance of winning, compared to 40% in the less than 50% category. Lots more high cards for the house and 0% chances, too.
Don't even ask about the few times I tried to make $20 into $40. On four attempts the house averaged a Jack as deaer card and a winning percentage 87%, three out of four of the hands giving the bettor 0% chance of a win. Four hands is not statistically significant, but given the other numbers, it certainly wasn't surprising.
Is it better to just not attempt to double?
I documented and analyzed 308 hands of Jacks or Better poker on which I attempted to double my winnings. Realizing that what card you start with is not the critical factor, but the cards that are dealt to the house and what chances your card has to beat it. Since the house is dealt four cards, you have a 0% chance (all house cards are higher), 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% (all house cards are lower). Here were the results:
On 242 hands on which I attempted to double $5 in winnings to $10, the house had a distinct and clear edge of 4%, based on the means, with 41 percent of hands having a less than 50% chance of winning and only 37 percent of hands have greater than 50% chance of winning.
It becomes even worse when attempting to double $10 in winnings to $20. Although there were only 62 hands, this is quite enough to come up with an everage and a mean that should only vary slightly from a larger number of hands. The house edge in this situation was 7%, with only 33% of the hands having a greater than 50% chance of winning, compared to 40% in the less than 50% category. Lots more high cards for the house and 0% chances, too.
Don't even ask about the few times I tried to make $20 into $40. On four attempts the house averaged a Jack as deaer card and a winning percentage 87%, three out of four of the hands giving the bettor 0% chance of a win. Four hands is not statistically significant, but given the other numbers, it certainly wasn't surprising.
Is it better to just not attempt to double?