UK Conservative Party Leadership Election

[ChopleyIOM]

That's parked up at that dogging site on the hill near Douglas?? !!!!

With a Lexus and an Alan Partridge outfit, you can't go wrong!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Meanwhile, chief Blair stooge and general flip-flopper Keir Starmer, freshly de-lubed from his Macron visit, struggling to find a pitch to sell the electorate as he outlines Britain's re-entry into the EU, and then being heard to say he'd honour Brussels' wishes as per the original agreement ?

It does appear as though he's intent on botching the easiest open goal this century, graciously handing the Tories some much-needed leverage going into next year. Could this man possibly conduct a breathtaking turnaround and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?.....

That's running on the assumption that most people will see Brexit as something precious to be saved, as opposed to a mistake that needs to be fixed, or at least, mitigated - and public opinion (according to literally all the polls, whoever runs them), is very much in the latter camp, and becoming more so over time.

All Starmer's talking about doing here is trying to de-shittify the Johnson/Frost calamit-o-deal a bit, you know, the one that shot a 4-6% hole in the entire country's GDP. (Which is exactly what Sunak's trying to do as well, with moves such as the Windsor Framework and rejoining the Horizon programme, although there's no political capital in it for him.)

I see the Doolally Mail and similar outfits are screeching in full BETRAYAL mode about it all, but the truth is a majority of the British public have moved on now, they have seen the evidence of the failure of Brexit with their own eyes, and they want to start to see it be fixed. 'Not diverging from EU rules' isn't some great boogeyman anymore.

 

[mack341]

I think they're heading to Long dong for a rejoin jamboree, oh look he's wearing one of those commie caps so beloved of corbyn, I wonder if there is an ideology connection somewhere

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I think they're heading to Long dong for a rejoin jamboree, oh look he's wearing one of those commie caps so beloved of corbyn, I wonder if there is an ideology connection somewhere

View attachment 187317

Whilst not everyone is going to ride on a train with an EU flag to a rejoin march, and indeed, neither would the numbers below translate directly to the same result in a fresh referendum (which I think will probably happen within the next ten years), the fact remains that those people on the train are now on the majority side of public opinion in the UK. (And let's remember that the original referendum wasn't exactly a slam dunk, with its very narrow 52/48 result.)

The whole point of a democracy is that it's allowed to change its mind.

 

[mack341]

Whilst not everyone is going to ride on a train with an EU flag to a rejoin march, and indeed, neither would the numbers below translate directly to the same result in a fresh referendum (which I think will probably happen within the next ten years), the fact remains that those people on the train are now on the majority side of public opinion in the UK. (And let's remember that the original referendum wasn't exactly a slam dunk, with its very narrow 52/48 result.)

The whole point of a democracy is that it's allowed to change its mind.

View attachment 187334

I think I read in the telegraph a proposal that any future referendum, to reverse brexit, should have a threshold rather than simple first past the post, to prevent a hokey cokey situation. Going back in on a 51 to 49 percentage would not be satisfactory.

What we have today is the natural order of things [minus the NI internal border] for a democratic country, the decisions are made and voted on here. Therefore passing some of these powers and billions of £ annually to the EU should require a clear majority of around 25%, then the issue would be finished.

 

[goatwack]

If the question is whether it was 'right' to put forward a Referendum and even pose the question to the British public in the first place, then I'd say it definitely was the most hotly-contested issue of that particular zeitgeist and needed to be put to bed.

It was a vote orchestrated by those in power to assuredly remain in the European Union and silence the pleb dissenters for another generation at least, whilst Project Fear played on voters' apathy towards the Cameron Austerity Project, combined with the EU's overreach creeping into the UK's apparent 'sovereignty' and autonomy.

Needless or not however, the Referendum was held, noses were put of joint, and this supposed Brexit betrayal yet to manifest itself. Whatever these non-context graphs are supposed to indicate, polling (whomever) on the back of a world-crippling pandemic with businesses dead on their feet in the midst of a recession doesn't exactly scream "Brexit", could be wrong.

Now were this to lead to another vote and it was favoured by 52% to rejoin the EU we'd likely be hearing about how 'the majority' have come to their senses and that the result is indisputably on the right side of history, no doubt. Yet by all means, if it were to come to a vote after something as short as a decade, then let's have at it with renewed knowledge and vigour.

Though I'd imagine the eventual result to be as close as the previous one, either way

 

[pinnit2014]

I think I read in the telegraph a proposal that any future referendum, to reverse brexit, should have a threshold rather than simple first past the post, to prevent a hokey cokey situation. Going back in on a 51 to 49 percentage would not be satisfactory.

What we have today is the natural order of things [minus the NI internal border] for a democratic country, the decisions are made and voted on here. Therefore passing some of these powers and billions of £ annually to the EU should require a clear majority of around 25%, then the issue would be finished.

Well that' s the thing - should it be a x % should it be % wise, at the end of the day it went ahead, whether you liked it or not. To argue if currently 75% now would renege now is neither there nor there - though i get the point being made.

To say Brexit betray has not materialised has simply meant you've not tuned into GB News - there's a lot of sense of betrayal; there. A lot.

I do find it amusing that folk, who have no skin in the game regarding 'how it affects you' , have a load of opinions of how it is though We went from 'material benefits' to 'not as bad as you think', in a hair breath. If, as a advocate of Brexit, you can't take that into account there is no hope for you, but sure, carry on regardless.

As someone who voted to remain though i respect the vote - what people chose and therefore should be respected.

 

[mack341]

If europe was polled and only 50% liked the EU, I would class that as a failure, because it's meant to be in every country's benefit, and it costs billions of tax to run what amounts to an extra layer of bureaucracy/govt.

In terms of popularity, 7 out of 10 would be a good ballpark for clear endorsement across europe [an average] that's a healthy mandate for any political rule.

All things being equal we save £200 million every week being out, that's a lot of exports required to make that up, 800 million company profit = 200 m from a rate of 25% corporation tax if my maths are correct. [EU to UK Tourism might increase as well]

Really there shouldn't be another referendum for a few decades; if scotand had gained independence by 1% there would not be another vote 15 yrs later to rejoin the UK. Because ultimately the locals would view self governance as the natural state of things, for better or worse.

 

[pinnit2014]

If europe was polled and only 50% liked the EU, I would class that as a failure, because it's meant to be in every country's benefit, and it costs billions of tax to run what amounts to an extra layer of bureaucracy/govt.

In terms of popularity, 7 out of 10 would be a good ballpark for clear endorsement across europe [an average] that's a healthy mandate for any political rule.

All things being equal we save £200 million every week being out, that's a lot of exports required to make that up, 800 million company profit = 200 m from a rate of 25% corporation tax if my maths are correct. [EU to UK Tourism might increase as well]

Really there shouldn't be another referendum for a few decades; if scotand had gained independence by 1% there would not be another vote 15 yrs later to rejoin the UK. Because ultimately the locals would view self governance as the natural state of things, for better or worse.

Devolved governance is the way in which in should work - unfortunately it never turns out that way, if ever: you have national policy that filters/drip feeds into the devolved administrations via 'ring fenced' monies.

Tbh Mack i'm not quite sure, as are the economists as to the 'saving' of X amounts per year - i've listened to about 10 so-called respected economists and there's a range of saving X, to costing Y. Therein lies the problem, even the experts don't even agree.

Depending upon the zeitgeist, here in Scotland (given the nationalistic movement is, despite which Unionists think (and Scotland will vote for Independence as it's become a bigger than the SNP, in the next vote IMO), there is a real possibility of another one in under 2 decades. There's the problem as you've said; you end up in this: well the mood has changed, lets ask the public again....end up in this weird world of referendums every 5-10 years? That's pretty mad.

 

[mack341]

Devolved governance is the way in which in should work - unfortunately it never turns out that way, if ever: you have national policy that filters/drip feeds into the devolved administrations via 'ring fenced' monies.

Tbh Mack i'm not quite sure, as are the economists as to the 'saving' of X amounts per year - i've listened to about 10 so-called respected economists and there's a range of saving X, to costing Y. Therein lies the problem, even the experts don't even agree.

Depending upon the zeitgeist, here in Scotland (given the nationalistic movement is, despite which Unionists think (and Scotland will vote for Independence as it's become a bigger than the SNP, in the next vote IMO), there is a real possibility of another one in under 2 decades. There's the problem as you've said; you end up in this: well the mood has changed, lets ask the public again....end up in this weird world of referendums every 5-10 years? That's pretty mad.

I thought there was a rough consensus that the net cost of EU membership was around £10 billion for the uk when we left, so in order for the EU membership to be worthwhile on a pure financial cost basis, increased export trade to the EU would have to cover it.

So those exports would need to raise an extra £40 billion in profit [not simply revenue] which equates to the 10 billion tax proceeds [corporation tax @25%] for the govt to pay the EU membership fee.

I welcome any alternative calculations or way the fee would be covered.

I have seen a report that our trade with the EU has gone up by 20% even though we've left, however I suspect that might have something to do with the energy market and the ukraine war/sanctions on russian energy. But those sanctions might stay for a long time.

It wouldn't bother me if Scotland was given a bit more devolved power [now that we have gone down this route due to new labour bringing it in] so they could set their own tax rates, as long as the larger union remained. There is more connecting us than divides us, brits should stick together.

 

[pinnit2014]

I thought there was a rough consensus that the net cost of EU membership was around £10 billion for the uk when we left, so in order for the EU membership to be worthwhile on a pure financial cost basis, increased export trade to the EU would have to cover it.

So those exports would need to raise an extra £40 billion in profit [not simply revenue] which equates to the 10 billion tax proceeds [corporation tax @25%] for the govt to pay the EU membership fee.

I welcome any alternative calculations or way the fee would be covered.

I have seen a report that our trade with the EU has gone up by 20% even though we've left, however I suspect that might have something to do with the energy market and the ukraine war/sanctions on russian energy. But those sanctions might stay for a long time.

It wouldn't bother me if Scotland was given a bit more devolved power [now that we have gone down this route due to new labour bringing it in] so they could set their own tax rates, as long as the larger union remained. There is more connecting us than divides us, brits should stick together.

TBH mate i've lost track of the calculations - there's been plus and minus's either side of each, it's almost like neither really know

I have a few pals with businesses wither coast and they've all said , albeit it informally , that costs have risen - and not due to CV-19 so just taking some real time examples over the years as an example.

Scotland's interesting - they want enough power to say they self govern but enough 'non-power' to blame it on someone else: WestMonster.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Sunak not looking very impressive in this interview.

Tell a lie, get pulled up on the lie, repeat the lie, and then say the lie is probably right.

 

[mack341]

How else could one to refer to it without being longwinded?

I thought he came across quite well there, finding his voice and he's clearly bright. Whereas starmer is stiff and wooden, who sees everything as a trick question which he has to evade/carefully answer, so that the public get no idea of how bonkers a labour govt might be.

This 20mph speed limit law, like ulez, must be part of Labour's national vision.

But no real surprise here on the origin, this is from 2011:

European Union plans to enforce a mandatory 20mph speed limit in residential zones and replace the Highway Code with European law has sparked outrage from British politicians.

 

[pinnit2014]

In general Sunak doesn't interview that well - more from the point he comes across as quite petulant and tetchy: passable at the moment, but with a GE he might want to smooth the edges. Last time i looked though there wasn't much difference in the approval ratings between him and Starmer as individuals.

Starmer is poor though (to say the least), so maybe won't hurt him that much; picking either of the parties headed by those two hardly excites anyone. Starmer lacks conviction when he speaks - As Mack says, you can see the cogs turning in his mind and you feel like shouting: say what you see, a la Catchphrase.

TBF, hard to know what a Labour Govt will look like with the purge of the far left over the last few years. The agreement with, for eg, the 2 child benefit gap means some of their policies might be a little more centred, but who knows

 

[mack341]

Not exactly related to the thread, but interested in monsieur Chopley's take:

A supermarket chain which has served the Isle of Man for more than 50 years has been bought by Tesco.
The retail giant said it would rebrand all nine of the island's Shoprite stores over the next nine months.

Shoprite is one of the island's major employers and currently sell a mix of Sainsbury's products and fresh produce from local business Robinson's.

"Whilst any announcements that result in job reductions are never welcome, I am heartened by the commitment from Tesco to retain the majority of staff in the immediate term and invest heavily in the existing store network over the next 12 months," he added.

 

[mack341]

You wouldn't want even a mild shock like this after a vindaloo the night before

 

[TheAddict]

Hope he had a licence for that glitter. still attempted murder though.

 

[dunover]

You wouldn't want even a mild shock like this after a vindaloo the night before

As I've always maintained, you can't polish a turd but you CAN roll one in glitter.....

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Not exactly related to the thread, but interested in monsieur Chopley's take:

A supermarket chain which has served the Isle of Man for more than 50 years has been bought by Tesco.
The retail giant said it would rebrand all nine of the island's Shoprite stores over the next nine months.

Shoprite is one of the island's major employers and currently sell a mix of Sainsbury's products and fresh produce from local business Robinson's.

"Whilst any announcements that result in job reductions are never welcome, I am heartened by the commitment from Tesco to retain the majority of staff in the immediate term and invest heavily in the existing store network over the next 12 months," he added.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what occurs, I wouldn't really say Shoprite are a beloved national institution and rumours have been abound for a while that something was going to happen (a lot of the Sainsbury's lines they'd previously sold had mysteriously disappeared from the shelves over the last month or so....).

Personally I prefer Shoprite to Tesco, not least because Shoprite has generous wide aisles and less of a frantic feel to it, but I guess when there's more than one Tesco to choose from that problem might subside. (Currently there's only one Tesco on the island, in Douglas.)

Tesco have been denied planning permission multiple times on a couple of sites, so their purchase of Shoprite is probably more to do with the buildings/land and existing site use designation than particularly wanting to buy all nine branches as an ongoing concern.

Everyone here seems to think some stores will be closing, Shoprite have two branches in Ramsey, for example, and Ramsey isn't exactly a big place. Also Tesco have already said Shoprite head office jobs will be lost.

Finally, Shoprite were good on selling quite a lot of local produce, more so than Tesco, so it remains to be seen what happens in that regard.

Here are the two Shoprites in Ramsey, for example, you can walk from one to the other in just a few minutes.

 

[mack341]

I guess we'll have to wait and see what occurs, I wouldn't really say Shoprite are a beloved national institution and rumours have been abound for a while that something was going to happen (a lot of the Sainsbury's lines they'd previously sold had mysteriously disappeared from the shelves over the last month or so....).

Personally I prefer Shoprite to Tesco, not least because Shoprite has generous wide aisles and less of a frantic feel to it, but I guess when there's more than one Tesco to choose from that problem might subside. (Currently there's only one Tesco on the island, in Douglas.)

Tesco have been denied planning permission multiple times on a couple of sites, so their purchase of Shoprite is probably more to do with the buildings/land and existing site use designation than particularly wanting to buy all nine branches as an ongoing concern.

Everyone here seems to think some stores will be closing, Shoprite have two branches in Ramsey, for example, and Ramsey isn't exactly a big place. Also Tesco have already said Shoprite head office jobs will be lost.

Finally, Shoprite were good on selling quite a lot of local produce, more so than Tesco, so it remains to be seen what happens in that regard.

Here are the two Shoprites in Ramsey, for example, you can walk from one to the other in just a few minutes.

View attachment 187951

Just an outside view, but I think it adds to the charm to have different shops owned by different organisations, and especially if they sold local produce where possible.

I suppose there are extra transport costs bringing products across from the mainland, so you have to expect a bit of a monopoly in return and enable some economy of scale.

On a side query Chopley, are you paying the same kind of prices for electricity and gas as the uk cap?

[Think mine is currently 36p per kwh of leccy as a reference and 11p for gas kwh]

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Just an outside view, but I think it adds to the charm to have different shops owned by different organisations, and especially if they sold local produce where possible.

I suppose there are extra transport costs bringing products across from the mainland, so you have to expect a bit of a monopoly in return and enable some economy of scale.

On a side query Chopley, are you paying the same kind of prices for electricity and gas as the uk cap?

[Think mine is currently 36p per kwh of leccy as a reference and 11p for gas kwh]

Sorry mack I meant to reply to this earlier in the week but because I'm old and rubbish, I forgot.

We're currently paying 30p per kwh, it was a lot less than that not too long ago, and the government stepped in with support to keep the prices down once it all kicked off in Ukraine, but the price rises have been getting passed on of late. We're quite a leccy-heavy household so we have seen it in steadily increasing bills.

There's no competition/market over here, you just get your leccy off the Manx Utilities Authority and that's that. It's not technically nationalised in the strictest sense of the word as it's run as a Statutory Board of government, but it also isn't allowed to make a profit either and there are no shareholders and no one really 'owns' it, except, ultimately, well, the government.

It's a fairly non-controversial arrangement and there's no particular agitation for it to be changed. I think folks over here have seen how utilities privatisation has ultimately panned out in the UK, and decided we'll just keep things as they are, thanks very much. (MUA also do water and sewage over here. Oh yes and some gas and telecomms stuff as well, undersea cables and suchlike)

 

[mack341]

Sorry mack I meant to reply to this earlier in the week but because I'm old and rubbish, I forgot.

We're currently paying 30p per kwh, it was a lot less than that not too long ago, and the government stepped in with support to keep the prices down once it all kicked off in Ukraine, but the price rises have been getting passed on of late. We're quite a leccy-heavy household so we have seen it in steadily increasing bills.

There's no competition/market over here, you just get your leccy off the Manx Utilities Authority and that's that. It's not technically nationalised in the strictest sense of the word as it's run as a Statutory Board of government, but it also isn't allowed to make a profit either and there are no shareholders and no one really 'owns' it, except, ultimately, well, the government.

It's a fairly non-controversial arrangement and there's no particular agitation for it to be changed. I think folks over here have seen how utilities privatisation has ultimately panned out in the UK, and decided we'll just keep things as they are, thanks very much. (MUA also do water and sewage over here. Oh yes and some gas and telecomms stuff as well, undersea cables and suchlike)

View attachment 188097

I prefer the sound of that I must admit, as long as the utility board is sensible. There is hardly any competition here in the uk, I think British Gas are an energy producer but most of the others just resellers adding on a markup for their admin/marketing costs and shareholder's profit, so effectively the 'market' is an added cost to the end user, for energy that comes down the same pipe work.

My standing charges work out at about £300 a year and used to be zero a few years back, how much further can it go up

When 'Bulb', a private company set up by 2 young entrepreneurs, went bust it apparently cost the uk govt 6.5 billion, surely at some point they're going to need to restructure the energy market.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I prefer the sound of that I must admit, as long as the utility board is sensible. There is hardly any competition here in the uk, I think British Gas are an energy producer but most of the others just resellers adding on a markup for their admin/marketing costs and shareholder's profit, so effectively the 'market' is an added cost to the end user, for energy that comes down the same pipe work.

My standing charges work out at about £300 a year and used to be zero a few years back, how much further can it go up

When 'Bulb', a private company set up by 2 young entrepreneurs, went bust it apparently cost the uk govt 6.5 billion, surely at some point they're going to need to restructure the energy market.

Yes that's how privatisation works. The profits are privatised, the risks remain nationalised. In the good times shareholders extract all the value they can, in the bad times the UK taxpayer picks up the tab.

Or in the case of rail nationalisation, the government has always had to massively subsidise the entire shebang, with far money than it ever did in the days of British Rail, to ensure that the private sector is sufficiently 'enticed' to partake.

Channel 4 made a good documentary about it earlier in the year.

 

[mack341]

Tony Blair and new labour had an obsession with public private partnerships, part of the third way vision.

It seems to me it can only work if the private part isn't greedy or happy for a small return, in this day and age that's unlikely.

The loyalty factor has gone, it's 'fill your boots time' as we saw with covid and ppe etc... but I think when king Charles [or prince of wales as was] does something, like farming or building homes he's able to find much more reasonable partnerships with the private sector to complete projects.

 

[dunover]

Sorry mack I meant to reply to this earlier in the week but because I'm old and rubbish, I forgot.

We're currently paying 30p per kwh, it was a lot less than that not too long ago, and the government stepped in with support to keep the prices down once it all kicked off in Ukraine, but the price rises have been getting passed on of late. We're quite a leccy-heavy household so we have seen it in steadily increasing bills.

There's no competition/market over here, you just get your leccy off the Manx Utilities Authority and that's that. It's not technically nationalised in the strictest sense of the word as it's run as a Statutory Board of government, but it also isn't allowed to make a profit either and there are no shareholders and no one really 'owns' it, except, ultimately, well, the government.

It's a fairly non-controversial arrangement and there's no particular agitation for it to be changed. I think folks over here have seen how utilities privatisation has ultimately panned out in the UK, and decided we'll just keep things as they are, thanks very much. (MUA also do water and sewage over here. Oh yes and some gas and telecomms stuff as well, undersea cables and suchlike)

View attachment 188097

I have a 12-month deal with Shell electric at 27.3p per kwh and gas at 7.7p. So not too far away. Mind you, in the sunny mild south not once has the automatic gas heating sparked up this autumn - yet! When it's cloudy it's mild and cold it's sunny which heats the house up during the day, possibly why it hasn't come on yet. It's always the same, once the house gradually loses its stored heat in the walls etc. from the summer and early autumn it will come on, but the first few cold days are 'free' if you like due to the ambient temperature of the building.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Not a good night for the Tories, with two crushing defeats. Yes they're only by-elections yada yada all that stuff but for reference, a government has never lost a seat as safe as Tamworth to the primary opposition before. Ever. (i.e. Not a protest vote for the Lib Dems, but a vote for the party that can realistically form a government, in this case Labour.)

Rather amusingly in one of the seats the fringe right wing parties (including Reform UK) took enough votes off the Tories to see Labour past the finishing post.

There'll be a general election by January 2025 at the latest, I simply do not see any way for Sunak to turn it around from here. There isn't enough time for an economic recovery and nowhere for it to come from anyway, as the UK continues to slowly bleed out from the endless puncture of Johnson's disastrous Brexit deal. Add in all the other factors that ail the UK at the moment, all of which are a result of thirteen years of ruinous Tory rule (there's no one else to blame), and we could be looking at an electoral wipeout 1997-style.

For my money, you can draw a straight line from Cameron's ill-fated decision to call a referendum on EU membership, right to where the Conservative Party is now. There was never any honesty around Brexit, they just doubled down on lies, time and time again, which culminated in the elevation of Johnson, the most unfit Prime Minister the country has ever seen, to the highest office in the land - and the biggest lie of all, his 'Oven Ready Brexit Deal', which cast the UK into an economic abyss from which it is yet to escape.

The bigger problem we have now is the utterly devastated condition the Tories will leave the UK in when they are finally ejected from office. Labour will have an awful lot of work to do. I hope Starmer comes out swinging.

 

[Webzcas]

I guess one can only surmise, that we the general public were actually not indeed ready for Rishi!

 

[TheAddict]

I don't get it. Are trying to say Brexit was a bad thig, Chop? lol.
You know why most people voted. And now you (should) know that democracy is a sham.

 

[dunover]

Not a good night for the Tories, with two crushing defeats. Yes they're only by-elections yada yada all that stuff but for reference, a government has never lost a seat as safe as Tamworth to the primary opposition before. Ever. (i.e. Not a protest vote for the Lib Dems, but a vote for the party that can realistically form a government, in this case Labour.)

Rather amusingly in one of the seats the fringe right wing parties (including Reform UK) took enough votes off the Tories to see Labour past the finishing post.

There'll be a general election by January 2025 at the latest, I simply do not see any way for Sunak to turn it around from here. There isn't enough time for an economic recovery and nowhere for it to come from anyway, as the UK continues to slowly bleed out from the endless puncture of Johnson's disastrous Brexit deal. Add in all the other factors that ail the UK at the moment, all of which are a result of thirteen years of ruinous Tory rule (there's no one else to blame), and we could be looking at an electoral wipeout 1997-style.

For my money, you can draw a straight line from Cameron's ill-fated decision to call a referendum on EU membership, right to where the Conservative Party is now. There was never any honesty around Brexit, they just doubled down on lies, time and time again, which culminated in the elevation of Johnson, the most unfit Prime Minister the country has ever seen, to the highest office in the land - and the biggest lie of all, his 'Oven Ready Brexit Deal', which cast the UK into an economic abyss from which it is yet to escape.

The bigger problem we have now is the utterly devastated condition the Tories will leave the UK in when they are finally ejected from office. Labour will have an awful lot of work to do. I hope Starmer comes out swinging.

I don't think anyone gives a shit any more mate.

A shower in power, Stormer the face to replace.

The electorate is scathing of the Tories (quite rightly) and totally apathetic towards Stormer and Labour.

It just demostrates how shit things are now and hopeless for the the future, if a party most people have no fondness for and assume are going to win, have a 19-point lead in the polls when 95% of the electorate couldn't tell you the names of more than 3 of the shadow cabinet and 2 policies they've got but will nevertheless vote for them beacuse 'they're not the other lot'.

 

[mack341]

I read somewhere that in these two amazing by-election victories, labour increased their votes in the hundreds, yet the tory vote was down by many thousands.

So one can only conclude there is no real, grassroot appetite for labour, it's just stay at home tories [and who can blame them] handing a victory to starmer, he can't believe his luck - like 6 diamonds have lined up on bonanza!

 

[bamberfishcake]

fringe right wing parties

Spoken like a true politician

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I read somewhere that in these two amazing by-election victories, labour increased their votes in the hundreds, yet the tory vote was down by many thousands.

So one can only conclude there is no real, grassroot appetite for labour, it's just stay at home tories [and who can blame them] handing a victory to starmer, he can't believe his luck - like 6 diamonds have lined up on bonanza!

Well the Tories will shortly be entering their 14th year of uninterrupted power, so if the lack of enthusiasm for politics, politicians, and the UK political system's overall ability to inspire people to enthusiastically cast their votes can be laid at anyone's door, it's theirs. Opposition parties can only do so much from the sidelines.

Moreover Labour's room for manoeuvre is limited, anything they announce has to pass the 'Daily Mail' test, whereby the UK's favourite insane right-wing hate-rag will set upon anything it can even remotely try to score some points off. This is the same paper that told us all Liz Truss was just the breath of fresh air the UK needed to really get things moving again.

On that note, fortunately all the disgusting culture wars stuff has clearly failed, turns out what people actually care about is the state of the economy, the NHS, their jobs, the UK's rivers and seas, its infrastructure, and all that actual important stuff. Despite the Tories' best efforts, they just can't make people all frothed up about women with penises and woke virtue-signalling teabags or whatever other bollocks it is they're banging on about at the moment.

Starmer needs to win an election first and get Labour into power, from there, we can judge them on their record.

 

[mack341]

Well the Tories will shortly be entering their 14th year of uninterrupted power, so if the lack of enthusiasm for politics, politicians, and the UK political system's overall ability to inspire people to enthusiastically cast their votes can be laid at anyone's door, it's theirs. Opposition parties can only do so much from the sidelines.

Moreover Labour's room for manoeuvre is limited, anything they announce has to pass the 'Daily Mail' test, whereby the UK's favourite insane right-wing hate-rag will set upon anything it can even remotely try to score some points off. This is the same paper that told us all Liz Truss was just the breath of fresh air the UK needed to really get things moving again.

On that note, fortunately all the disgusting culture wars stuff has clearly failed, turns out what people actually care about is the state of the economy, the NHS, their jobs, the UK's rivers and seas, its infrastructure, and all that actual important stuff. Despite the Tories' best efforts, they just can't make people all frothed up about women with penises and woke virtue-signalling teabags or whatever other bollocks it is they're banging on about at the moment.

Starmer needs to win an election first and get Labour into power, from there, we can judge them on their record.

Are you sure about the tories fighting the culture war?

I will be happy if Starmer does all those basics, will be interesting to hear his plan to improve the economy, local labour councils haven't shown any special ability in this dept, birmingham city actually going bankrupt.

The tories seem to have lost who they are, apart from the cronyism/fill your boots philosophy.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Are you sure about the tories fighting the culture war?

I will be happy if Starmer does all those basics, will be interesting to hear his plan to improve the economy, local labour councils haven't shown any special ability in this dept, birmingham city actually going bankrupt.

The tories seem to have lost who they are, apart from the cronyism/fill your boots philosophy.

View attachment 188484

They're still doing the culture war thing (they have nothing else left), but it's not gaining them any electoral traction whatsoever, the polling on this is very clear, outside of the rather more..... ahem..... loony end of their support base, it's a vote loser, more moderate/centrist Tories hate it, let alone those who'd be minded to vote Lib Dem or Labour. (So yes, if those Tories stay home on polling day, it matters.)

As for councils going bankrupt, it's happened irrespective of political party across the country, and is a result of the crippling austerity years and starvation of local bodies up and down the UK of cash over the last thirteen years.

 

[mack341]

They're still doing the culture war thing (they have nothing else left), but it's not gaining them any electoral traction whatsoever, the polling on this is very clear, outside of the rather more..... ahem..... loony end of their support base, it's a vote loser, more moderate/centrist Tories hate it, let alone those who'd be minded to vote Lib Dem or Labour. (So yes, if those Tories stay home on polling day, it matters.)

As for councils going bankrupt, it's happened irrespective of political party across the country, and is a result of the crippling austerity years and starvation of local bodies up and down the UK of cash over the last thirteen years.

The blob decides these things, but the chickens are coming home to roost for the mess liberals [and also arch thatcherite/blair economic policy with crony capitalism] have made.

"Rishi Sunak has said he believes that 100 per cent of women do not have penises. The prime minister has put himself at odds with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer by declaring that 100 per cent of women do not have male genitals.

By contrast, Sir Keir earlier this month suggested that as many as one in every thousand women has a penis."


Anyone this bonkers is fully capable of stupid decisions and poor judgement elsewhere.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

The blob decides these things, but the chickens are coming home to roost for the mess liberals [and also arch thatcherite/blair economic policy with crony capitalism] have made.

"Rishi Sunak has said he believes that 100 per cent of women do not have penises. The prime minister has put himself at odds with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer by declaring that 100 per cent of women do not have male genitals.

By contrast, Sir Keir earlier this month suggested that as many as one in every thousand women has a penis."


Anyone this bonkers is fully capable of stupid decisions and poor judgement elsewhere.

But this is literally, exactly what I'm talking about mack. You're going on about the 'blob' (what is that again, exactly? Is it the same thing as the tofu-eating wokerati?) and Starmer's line on women with penises when the results on this are in, nowhere near enough people give a single flying hamster turd about it for it to be any kind of vote winner whatsoever, indeed it's having exactly the opposite effect.

On one level I kind of get it, the Tories have no record to stand on, anyone with a functioning brain can see that they've trashed the UK over the last thirteen years and left it in a diminished, weakened and poorer state than when they came into office. They don't even have the economy to point to as a sort of 'Well at least we're on top of that, whatever the cost' - because they've fucked that as well. (And yes, the disastrous Tory Brexit has to shoulder a lot of the blame there.)

Against that backdrop I guess they're going to have to find something to lash out at and try to blame for the UK's ills that doesn't involve any sort of self-reflection, and therefore the women with penises and desperate brown people in boats fit the bill in that regard - but it clearly isn't working.

It makes the government look exactly what it is, weak, ineffective, and desperately scrabbling around for anything, anyone to blame for its own multiple, manifest failures. Distracted by trivia whilst the country burns - and the UK population has patently had enough.

 

[bamberfishcake]

100 per cent of women do not have penises

It's good to see us finally get an answer for such taxing questions that have puzzled our most brilliant minds since the dawn of time. Glad we can put this one to bed now. The future of mankind is looking bright.

 

[mack341]

But this is literally, exactly what I'm talking about mack. You're going on about the 'blob' (what is that again, exactly? Is it the same thing as the tofu-eating wokerati?) and Starmer's line on women with penises when the results on this are in, nowhere near enough people give a single flying hamster turd about it for it to be any kind of vote winner whatsoever, indeed it's having exactly the opposite effect.

On one level I kind of get it, the Tories have no record to stand on, anyone with a functioning brain can see that they've trashed the UK over the last thirteen years and left it in a diminished, weakened and poorer state than when they came into office. They don't even have the economy to point to as a sort of 'Well at least we're on top of that, whatever the cost' - because they've fucked that as well. (And yes, the disastrous Tory Brexit has to shoulder a lot of the blame there.)

Against that backdrop I guess they're going to have to find something to lash out at and try to blame for the UK's ills that doesn't involve any sort of self-reflection, and therefore the women with penises and desperate brown people in boats fit the bill in that regard - but it clearly isn't working.

It makes the government look exactly what it is, weak, ineffective, and desperately scrabbling around for anything, anyone to blame for its own multiple, manifest failures. Distracted by trivia whilst the country burns - and the UK population has patently had enough.

Yes, in comparison to the bigger daily issues families and people face, they couldn't give a flying wotsit about the meaning or debate of those quotes. I disagree on the boat landers, they do care and want it resolved, if not eventually there will be a strong populist reaction that the liberals and media class won't like.

Labour cannot hide from this issue if they win office. If marine le pen or her successor was to win in france, maybe she'd sort it out their end.

 

[TheAddict]

It's good to see us finally get an answer for such taxing questions that have puzzled our most brilliant minds since the dawn of time. Glad we can put this one to bed now. The future of mankind is looking bright.

My friend told me to tell you that he or she hopes that comment isn't sarcasm! He or she also told me to upload his or her pic incase you want to fuck around and find out.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Yes, in comparison to the bigger daily issues families and people face, they couldn't give a flying wotsit about the meaning or debate of those quotes. I disagree on the boat landers, they do care and want it resolved, if not eventually there will be a strong populist reaction that the liberals and media class won't like.

Labour cannot hide from this issue if they win office. If marine le pen or her successor was to win in france, maybe she'd sort it out their end.

A good article by Polly Toynbee, for those who are prepared to walk into the pleasant atrium of The Guardian, where all us tofu-eating liberals like to behave woke whilst watching the BBC.

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[goatwack]

Crikey, Sunak's only gone and sacked Braverman and made DAVID CAMERON Foreign Secretary!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

One thing I will say is Sunak's played a blinder by waiting until Farage has fucked off to the jungle for a month before getting rid of Braverman.

As for bringing back Cameron, whilst never exactly my favourite politician (thanks for Brexit, Dave!), he almost looks like a political titan when compared to the current shower of incompetents, and he'll appeal to more liberal/centrist blue wall Tories who were repulsed by Braverman.

Also, Sunak has been making more agreeable noises in the direction of the EU recently, and Cameron was always a Remainer, of course.

We are very much at the point now where you could argue the government is illegitimate, so far removed is it from what got elected in 2019, and yet it can limp on for just over another year.... (I think we're on our seventh Home Secretary in this administration now?)

 

[dunover]

One thing I will say is Sunak's played a blinder by waiting until Farage has fucked off to the jungle for a month before getting rid of Braverman.

As for bringing back Cameron, whilst never exactly my favourite politician (thanks for Brexit, Dave!), he almost looks like a political titan when compared to the current shower of incompetents, and he'll appeal to more liberal/centrist blue wall Tories who were repulsed by Braverman.

Also, Sunak has been making more agreeable noises in the direction of the EU recently, and Cameron was always a Remainer, of course.

We are very much at the point now where you could argue the government is illegitimate, so far removed is it from what got elected in 2019, and yet it can limp on for just over another year.... (I think we're on our seventh Home Secretary in this administration now?)

Cameron didn't make Brexit, the electorate did. Just sayin'

That bloody Cameron and his democratic vote.

 

[goatwack]

It's a complete Remainer love-in, with calls for George Osborne to be brought back too!

Not sure what posts are still available though. Perhaps Minister Monkey Boy & Tea Making Affairs?

Purging all Right-favouring members from the front lines is the final nail for their Election hopes, as well as the meme-inducing decision to reinstate the likes of David Cameron - which makes everything post-Referendum seem like a complete waste of everyone's time.

It's all so desperately sad, as the Tories aim to correct their Brexit 'vision' by appealing to the younger (non)-voters and pretend like none of this ever happened. Too little, too late....

And whilst Sunak and his motley crew conspire to find new and inventive ways of botching their chances, it seems far more a realistic proposition to find the likes of Braverman spearhead the Tories in years to come, than even Sunak, Johnson and even Cameron, as the party looks to rebuild.

Being trounced at GEs tends to bring quite a lot of renewed introspection. Who knew

 

[pinnit2014]

One thing I will say is Sunak's played a blinder by waiting until Farage has fucked off to the jungle for a month before getting rid of Braverman.

As for bringing back Cameron, whilst never exactly my favourite politician (thanks for Brexit, Dave!), he almost looks like a political titan when compared to the current shower of incompetents, and he'll appeal to more liberal/centrist blue wall Tories who were repulsed by Braverman.

Also, Sunak has been making more agreeable noises in the direction of the EU recently, and Cameron was always a Remainer, of course.

We are very much at the point now where you could argue the government is illegitimate, so far removed is it from what got elected in 2019, and yet it can limp on for just over another year.... (I think we're on our seventh Home Secretary in this administration now?)

Re the 2019 election - they're so far away from what they fought for then - places like the NE (Durham) voted Tory, under the broad brush conservatism, of the hope of economic revival. And now they'll swing back because that never materialised and instead we have this angry, horrible rhetoric of a Party. Ironically, of all the PM's since then (10?) Johnson was the one who understood broad stroke Conservatism (albeit, couldn't implement it) better than all of them. -Rishi was probably plugging it all into a spreadsheet.

Some interesting polling along the so-called Red Wall. -Braverman would struggle to attract 50% of the base. Now, if you can't attract over 50% of your Party base , the Election is a non-runner. So, why some think she's the future i don't know. Lee Anderson though appeals - i mean, who wouldn't want someone who tries to get people to eat cat food on his TV show, i don't know (hello, Red George?)- another fruitcake who's trying to caricature the 'working-class'.

They're out of power for at least 4 years, possibly 8 or more - and where they're going, this seemingly lurch to the right, will not get them anywhere near power anytime soon.

 

[mack341]

Braverman going is neither here nor there for me, don't think she could cut the mustard really, the tories have become a mirror image of labour - all odd bods. Political chancers and grifters like hancock getting to run the national health system is a prime example.

Cameron is a bit of return to somebody who looks a bit more substantial a figure, if he was in charge of your local bank branch you'd be reassured by his air of competence - even if I disagree with his centrist liberal vision.

Farage is off to australia to be filmed eating insects and testicles in exchange for £1 million plus, so that's his serious political career over.

 

[dunover]

Suella Braverman's resignation letter, not a lot to disagree with there.

Not bad from a woman whose parents named her after Sue Ellen in Dallas (which is actually her real name, a schoolteacher kept calling her 'Suella'.)

Clearly not ready for Rishi:

Dear Prime Minister
Thank you for your phone call yesterday morning in which you asked me to leave government. While disappointing, this is for the best.
It has been my privilege to serve as home secretary and deliver on what the British people have sent us to Westminster to do.
I want to thank all of those civil servants, police, Border Force officers and security professionals with whom I have worked and whose dedication to public safety is exemplary.
I am proud of what we achieved together: delivering on our manifesto pledge to recruit 20,000 new police officers and enacting new laws such as the Public Order Act 2023 and the National Security Act 2023.
I also led a programme of reform: on anti-social behaviour, police dismissals and standards, reasonable lines of enquiry, grooming gangs, knife crime, non-crime hate incidents and rape and serious sexual offences.
And I am proud of the strategic changes that I was delivering to Prevent, Contest, serious organised crime and fraud. I am sure that this work will continue with the new ministerial team.
As you know, I accepted your offer to serve as home secretary in October 2022 on certain conditions.
Despite you having been rejected by a majority of party members during the summer leadership contest and thus having no personal mandate to be prime minister, I agreed to support you because of the firm assurances you gave me on key policy priorities. These were, among other things:

1. Reduce overall legal migration as set out in the 2019 manifesto through, inter alia, reforming the international students route and increasing salary thresholds on work visas
2. Include specific "notwithstanding clauses" into new legislation to stop the boats, ie exclude the operation of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), Human Rights Act (HRA) and other international law that had thus far obstructed progress on this issue
3. Deliver the Northern Ireland Protocol and Retained EU Law Bills in their then existing form and timetable
4. Issue unequivocal statutory guidance to schools that protects biological sex, safeguards single sex spaces, and empowers parents to know what is being taught to their children.

This was a document with clear terms to which you agreed in October 2022 during your second leadership campaign. I trusted you. It is generally agreed that my support was a pivotal factor in winning the leadership contest and thus enabling you to become prime minister.
For a year, as home secretary I have sent numerous letters to you on the key subjects contained in our agreement, made requests to discuss them with you and your team, and put forward proposals on how we might deliver these goals.
I worked up the legal advice, policy detail and action to take on these issues. This was often met with equivocation, disregard and a lack of interest.
You have manifestly and repeatedly failed to deliver on every single one of these key policies. Either your distinctive style of government means you are incapable of doing so. Or, as I must surely conclude now, you never had any intention of keeping your promises.
These are not just pet interests of mine. They are what we promised the British people in our 2019 manifesto which led to a landslide victory. They are what people voted for in the 2016 Brexit Referendum.
Our deal was no mere promise over dinner, to be discarded when convenient and denied when challenged.
I was clear from day one that if you did not wish to leave the ECHR, the way to securely and swiftly deliver our Rwanda partnership would be to block off the ECHR, the HRA and any other obligations which inhibit our ability to remove those with no right to be in the UK. Our deal expressly referenced "notwithstanding clauses" to that effect.
Your rejection of this path was not merely a betrayal of our agreement, but a betrayal of your promise to the nation that you would do "whatever it takes" to stop the boats.
At every stage of litigation I cautioned you and your team against assuming we would win. I repeatedly urged you to take legislative measures that would better secure us against the possibility of defeat. You ignored these arguments. You opted instead for wishful thinking as a comfort blanket to avoid having to make hard choices. This irresponsibility has wasted time and left the country in an impossible position.
If we lose in the Supreme Court, an outcome that I have consistently argued we must he prepared for, you will have wasted a year and an Act of Parliament, only to arrive back at square one.
Worse than this, your magical thinking - believing that you can will your way through this without upsetting polite opinion - has meant you have failed to prepare any sort of credible Plan B.
I wrote to you on multiple occasions setting out what a credible Plan B would entail, and making clear that unless you pursue these proposals, in the event of defeat, there is no hope of flights this side of an election. I received no reply from you.
I can only surmise that this is because you have no appetite for doing what is necessary, and therefore no real intention of fulfilling your pledge to the British people.
If, on the other hand, we win in the Supreme Court, because of the compromises that you insisted on in the Illegal Migration Act, the government will struggle to deliver our Rwanda partnership in the way that the public expects.
The Act is far from secure against legal challenge. People will not be removed as swiftly as I originally proposed. The average claimant will be entitled to months of process, challenge, and appeal. Your insistence that Rule 39 indications are binding in international law - against the views of leading lawyers, as set out in the House of Lords - will leave us vulnerable to being thwarted yet again by the Strasbourg Court.
Another cause for disappointment - and the context for my recent article in The Times - has been your failure to rise to the challenge posed by the increasingly vicious antisemitism and extremism displayed on our streets since Hamas's terrorist atrocities of 7 October.
I have become hoarse urging you to consider legislation to ban the hate marches and help stem the rising tide of racism, intimidation and terrorist glorification threatening community cohesion.
Britain is at a turning point in our history and faces a threat of radicalisation and extremism in a way not seen for 20 years.
I regret to say that your response has been uncertain, weak, and lacking in the qualities of leadership that this country needs. Rather than fully acknowledge the severity of this threat, your team disagreed with me for weeks that the law needed changing.
As on so many other issues, you sought to put off tough decisions in order to minimise political risk to yourself. In doing so, you have increased the very real risk these marches present to everyone else.
In October of last year you were given an opportunity to lead our country. It is a privilege to serve and one we should not take for granted. Service requires bravery and thinking of the common good.
It is not about occupying the office as an end in itself.
Someone needs to be honest: your plan is not working, we have endured record election defeats, your resets have failed and we are running out of time. You need to change course urgently.
I may not have always found the right words, but I have always striven to give voice to the quiet majority that supported us in 2019. I have endeavoured to be honest and true to the people who put us in these privileged positions.
I will, of course, continue to support the government in pursuit of policies which align with an authentic conservative agenda.
Sincerely
Suella Braverman

 

[bamberfishcake]

Crikey, Sunak's only gone and sacked Braverman and made DAVID CAMERON Foreign Secretary!

2nd time sacking I heard.

I wonder if her failings will be recorded on her new EU Digital ID ?

A career full of cock-ups on the rise to the top. I call this the Bojo Effect.

 

[goatwack]

If I was in any way conspiratorial I'd say Sunak's endurance is down to him being one of the WEF's standout Young Global Leaders, earmarked for automaton greatness in his role.

Just as well I'm not then!

But what is certain is that the Tories have entered the 9th layer of self-parody at this point, where, not content with jeopardizing their (slim) Election hopes, they're now effectively sundering their own Tory voters as well as creating some internal party rift ?

So it falls on the likes of forthright Ministers like Braverman to be first to face the chop, whilst the Yes-men have one last hurrah!

I don't expect Sunak to last beyond two years, and Cameron within the year....but you can be sure in the merry-go-round world of politics, Braverman to resurface in a prominent position in time, albeit when the Tories are spent, for the next decade or so

 

[ChopleyIOM]

It's nice of the Tories to be so determined to self-destruct and piss on their own corpse that Starmer doesn't need to do anything more than drink a (totally legal) beer with a (totally legal) curry between now and election day to romp home to victory. As the old quote from Napoleon goes, 'Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake'.

Quick fact check by the way, the latest polling says a majority of Tory voters think Sunak was correct to sack Braverman, let alone the population as a whole.

As for her resignation letter, it reads like a stroppy teenager's deranged moan about how unfair everything is, whilst also serving as an epic attempt at arse-covering for having failed at basically every single goal and task that she was set, whilst conveniently rewriting history with what was on the table in 2016 and 2019.

It's so bad it basically sits outside the realm of critical analysis, and is more the political equivalent of the embarrassing uncle at a family get-together who's pissing down his own legs whilst ranting about some senseless nonsense or other and all you can do is wait until he passes out completely.

Anyway, don't let me stop you Suella, you carry on ransacking the Tories as much as you see fit!