Should developers be made to publish stats?

[toms596]

As the title really should developers be made to publish real stats on their games? Rather than just a blanket RTP figure.

For example,

Max win 1 in 100,000,000 spins
5000x 1 in 2,000,000 spins etc etc

 

[jasonuk]

100% yes - the thing is there isn't a blanket RTP figure anymore - not only are there multiple math models, but slots have got so complicated in their behaviour in terms of stored value, unlocks and other trickery that it's an eventual RTP also.

In the old world, 1 person playing a one billion spins was the same as one million people playing 1000 spins - the maths didn't change, the RTP didn't change, it was all nice and simple.

However, there are numerous offerings out there now where the declared RTP and realised house edge are not expected to converge to 100% - because one is based on an ideal scenario (perfect play, infinitely many spins, no loss of stored value) and one is based on reality (poor play, people giving up mid-climb, auto-play features playing sub-optimally, redeployments wiping out stored value etc).

I don't think we've got much information in the wild about this discrepancy, but I can imagine 2-3% is plausible.

Stats I'd like to see including:

• RTP by lifetime, first 100 spins and first spin (to account for stored value trickery), which would also allow to infer bonus funds RTP (e.g. red tiger that delete any stored value after bonus spins are completed)
• frequency of headline payout (as opposed to max win - not all slots have arbitrary limits, and some will report a much more reasonable "win up to..." than their theoretical maximum)
• bonus frequency
• median payout per 100 spins - gives a much more realistic view in terms of profile, e.g. a starburst may be around the 75% mark, your latest NLC abomination might be closer to 20%

One thing I wish we had more of is publication of audited production statistics as well - microgaming used to do this, and yet it's an integrity point that seems to have mostly disappeared... perhaps because people might cotton on to many of the tricks being deployed by the underbelly of the sector.

 

[Lemon]

I don't think we've got much information in the wild about this discrepancy, but I can imagine 2-3% is plausible.

Most definitely, and I would say on some slots it would be a lot higher. The amount of stored value on some games is ridiculous and would require hundreds of thousands of spins, quite possibly even millions to be fully realised. Very few individual players are going to do that. Baron Samedi - I'm looking at you! 97.00% advertised RTP, although 123k spins probably isn't that much in the grand scheme of things...



I don't know what the average player-retention rate of a new slot is but if it loses half of its players after the first 100 spins because they don't like it, and that slot has persistence, hold-overs, stuff to collect and so on that all contribute reasonably to the RTP, the studio is effectively deploying a game that says 97% in the help pages knowing full well that cumulatively in the wild it will probably land at ~93% after the first month of launch, and then never get past that. Ker-ching!

A few months later Yggdrasil launched another slot that had stuff to collect in it, and some object landed on a reel and it floated up to a panel that changed from 0/650 to 1/650 or something stupid. I just said 'Ah, fuck that!' to myself and played something else. These days I like games you can pick up and put down, and not feel so invested that you know you'll be having to go back and put more work in at a later date. I'm a bit like that with video games; I'd rather have a quick game of Frogger or Nemesis than lose months of my life to the latest Zelda release.

 

[johnnybagel]

I love this idea.
I'd like to see the real historical RTP year by year, real ratio of spins to bonuses hit, biggest win, average win, etc.

 

[goatwack]

Idyllic though it is, I can't see any authority forcing casinos or developers to disclose these advanced stats. They haven't before, nor would they now, as doing so would likely cause all manner of playing irregularities, for starters.

Meanwhile, games can continue to display identical blanket RTPs with wildly varying gameplay variance.

Expecting a bonus to arrive around the 500 spin mark, players would surely increase stake sizes, leading to overspending or betting outside one's budget - surely a no-no.

Seeing that nine out of ten slots one's just played below the stated RTP, after several hours' play, isn't exactly premium advertising for the casino or the developers. And when it's revealed the user's getting a substandard experience and essentially being ripped off, I'd call that a bit of a 'retention averter'.

However much developers may wish to let players pry under the hood, I shan't be holding my breath for any full transparency to shine forth, as doing so would put far too many noses out of joint, and be seen to be counter-productive.

Far better to inform the masses that they're getting a fair game, when played over 50 years, until RTP is 'sort of' met. Telling users the 11 herbs and spices would not be in their best interests whatsoever, sorry to say

 

[jasonuk]

However much developers may wish to let players pry under the hood, I shan't be holding my breath for any full transparency to shine forth, as doing so would put far too many noses out of joint, and be seen to be counter-productive.

It would have to come from the regulator - while a few providers have included additional statistics in the help file (and a couple - like 4ThePlayer - even had a graphic on the loading screen) I agree there's going to be considerable pushback by those trying to camouflage their intentions... whether that be stored value horror shows, "regular bonuses" that actually take 800 spins, or so top-heavy that you're playing a bonus pre-gamble not a slot.

It's weird because quite a bit of this information is made available to both operators and affiliates, so it's not like it is top secret in the first place.

 

[toms596]

That was the general idea being honest about what to expect from a game.

With variance being so high it's easy to think oh at 96% it should play well etc only to dead spin for 30 spins in a row.

It's all framed as entertainment anyway so what's the harm in giving you the reality as for 99.9% of players you won't be hitting those headline wins.

What are the rules on RTP anyway? Could a game not take money for 2 billion spins and have 1 spin that pays out to reach the stated RTP?

 

[bamberfishcake]

What are the rules on RTP anyway? Could a game not take money for 2 billion spins and have 1 spin that pays out to reach the stated RTP?

As far as I know, there are no rules as long as it meets the designed RTP in testing. Therefore, as you have mentioned, a game could be designed to do 2 billion spins way below RTP, and then make up for it with a big win or two, or three, or four.

Many of the latest games with high volatility seem to be designed that way. And the designers are getting this kind of thing down to a fine art.

I would like to see running stats for a slots lifetime. With the deluge of slots released, I wonder how many of them will actually ever be around long enough to meet their tested standard. And if not, how can that be fair?

But yes, more info would be beneficial to the player. Besides not knowing what version they are playing, many of them don't know that some have lower max win potential than their counterparts, and never achieve the max win of the highest paying 96%ers.

p.s. On the flip side, could imagine the queries from players if all stats were released. Talk about a can of worms.

 

[toms596]

I would like to see running stats for a slots lifetime. With the deluge of slots released, I wonder how many of them will actually ever be around long enough to meet their tested standard. And if not, how can that be fair?

That would be a really interesting one could go some way to explain the honeymoon period you see in some games.

There must be games that have achieved over RTP before the playerbase declined leaving it having to reclaim that somehow to achieve the stated RTP.

On the queries I doubt that bothers most providers as they hardly communicate with regular players.

 

[jasonuk]

A lot of the game rules talk about simulation during X number of spins (e.g. one billion, ten billion etc) - and in many cases that is wildly different to the play profile of the game (the "stored value trap" mentioned above).

The rules on RTP testing haven't been fit for purpose for a few years now, and providers are getting wise to this by introducing more complicated "optimal strategy" rules (e.g. Evolution's 80-odd charts for Lightning Blackjack), not providing information on decisions (e.g. "optimal strategy" on the FOBTs where the optimal strategy isn't disclosed to the player) or the stored value trap where they can disclose a 96% RTP that will be unrealistic in the first hundred, thousand, ten thousand spins... and naturally not in the player's favour!

--

I remember discussing this from the FOBT angle on Desert Island Fruits a while back - where you could design a slot to have significant jackpot contributions, those jackpots have a fairly refined (in the distant future) "random" trigger, and when combined with other tricks that aren't supposed to be legal but nobody enforces (e.g. pot resets on software upgrades) you could get into a perpetual situation where a 95% slot may only be paying 75-85% lifetime.

All within the regulations of a "random" FOBT slot... pretty scary really!

 

[goatwack]

So what we're saying is that auditors are allowing shoddy practices to go on unchecked, whilst developers exploit every loophole imaginable, where e.g 96% RTP can never be attained?

That random isn't random, and that online is nothing like FOBTs, despite it being a multi-million dollar industry?

I thought these processes were legit and completely fit for purpose. Naturally, I'm now somewhat disappointed

 

[Fisksvettet]

Pretty sure those stats ARE public. At least in some markets, know that you HAVE to have it in game in Germany for example.