RNG - Payout over time question

[steinhaug]

Looking at historical data is always fun in the long run, and I know in the long run we are to expect 95% payout. With that in mind, some questions:

Question 1:
Playing slot X, on 25 lines 100 times -> 150% payout
Playing slot X, on 15 lines 100 times -> 50% payout
Playing slot X, on 5 lines 100 times -> 100% payout
Playing slot X, on 1 line 100 times -> 0% payout

Would I be right in assuming, that adding 9900 spin on all lines above - I would expect this:

Playing slot X, on 25 lines 10000 times -> 95% payout
Playing slot X, on 15 lines 10000 times -> 95% payout
Playing slot X, on 5 lines 10000 times -> 95% payout
Playing slot X, on 1 line 10000 times -> 95% payout

Whatever line combinations or wager I play with, repeating that bet long enough should give me 95% payout in long run?

Question 2:
What would be a reasonable amount of spins on a given wager, so that one could agree that it's accurate?

 

[aka23]

Variance is huge for slots. 100 or 10,000 far too few spins to expect a payout of ~95%. To start with, you would need enough spins to expect to hit all outcomes of the slot, even the rare ones, like 5 wilds or a progressive jackpot. To approach a more precise value, you would likely need quite a bit more than this.

If you can get an estimate for variance per line or variance per spin of the particular slot, you can crudely estimate expected range of return per 10,000 spins using the calc at

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or compare with other games. For example with a SD per spin of 1.0 in a game like roulette, the 1SD range of expected payouts for 10,000 spins and a 5% house edge is 94 to 96%. If we increase SD per spin from 1 to 10, the expected payout range shifts to 85 to 105%. I suspect most 5 reel slots have a SD per spin of well above 10.

Zoozie's slot simulator may also be helpful. I believe it answers the 2nd half of your question for some of the MG games.

 

[refre]

Question 1: The next spins should be independent of the first 100, so I guess the combined payout for all 10000 spins should, statistically, be higher for example one and three.

May be compared to losing 100 hands straight on black jack (highly unlikely), then deciding to play to play another 100 hands. Should you expect to win most or all hands to make the payout percentage 99 (ish)?

Disclaimer: I'm no math wiz.