Skeptics and cynics abound. That's OK, it takes one to know one, as they say, and I've been one for most of my life.
I've also been gambling online for about a decade now. Mostly sports betting and poker, but I do some casino gambling also. System touts are common in sports betting. Actual winning systems are far more rare. If someone is promoting a sports betting system and you're NOT skeptical, I have some oceanfront property in Oklahoma for sale...
I'm not promoting anything, though. I've been a member of this forum for more than 8 years and I don't recall trying to sell anything to anyone here during that time. I was just gloating. Not because my system finally worked, but because my system is working for the fourth of the four seasons I've tried it on.
I am seeing some misconceptions about sports betting in this thread that I would like to address.
Casino games are purely games of chance played against the house where the house nearly always has an advantage. This is not true of sports
betting. A sportsbook is a market where bets are made on an issue - a sporting event. A sportsbook has many things in common with an exchange
(like the NYSE), but with one huge difference - at a sportsbook the market influences the price (the line), but does not set it. At a sportsbook a linemaker determines the price.
If a large amount of money comes in on one side of an issue at an exchange, then the price will move. If a large amount of money comes in on one side of an issue at a sportsbook, then the line MIGHT move. It depends on the linemaker. He might move the line. He might assume additional risk. He might lay the risk off at another sportsbook. Etc. He has choices. Sometimes his choice will create a price that is a value in the market. This creates opportunity you don't get in casino gaming.
Math matters. After 2,000+ bets I could be an outlier. After a million bets I could still be an outlier. By the same reasoning Warren Buffet and Doyle Brunson might just be 'lucky' in the markets they chose to play in. I wouldn't bet against them, though.