Perseverance Pays Off With MLB Betting

Bullajami

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Several years ago some friends and I developed a system for betting on MLB underdogs that was profitable for 3 straight seasons. Took a couple years off from online gambling, but got back in this spring using the same system. April and May were just horrid, and I was down 22 betting units, but I hung in there. Stuck with the plan. Well, sure enough, it paid off. I'm up 5 units now. Not getting rich, but having fun, and coming back from 22 units down feels like a big win. :)
 

Cleveland

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After 2000 bets luck is statistically unlikely. :cool:

Think what you will but you're wrong. I would hate to see a new player buy into this and go looking for systems to purchase.

Given the amount of people betting odds dictate that someone would have an oddly long winning streak. Just as some seem to always win when they go to a casino and play a slot machine. One of my aunts who passed away use to consistently win on slot machines when she went. Has nothing to do with a system. Given the sheer amount of people playing someone will be the odd one.

Same with those who have won large lotteries more than once.

Enjoy you're winnings but the tone of this thread is silly as it relates to the MLB.
 

Bullajami

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Just as some seem to always win when they go to a casino and play a slot machine.
There are significant differences between making bets against a random number generator and making bets against a human bookmaker who is setting the line at his book.
Enjoy you're winnings but the tone of this thread is silly as it relates to the MLB.

Definitely some silly tone in this thread.
 

Bullajami

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I would hate to see a new player ... go looking for systems to purchase.
I do agree with this, though. If someone has a system that works, they use it. If someone has a system that doesn't work, they sell it. Don't buy a system, develop your own. That's where all the entertainment is in sports betting, anyway. Letting someone else determine your picks would be boring. It would be for me.

Cheers! :cheers:
 

Cleveland

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There are significant differences between making bets against a random number generator and making bets against a human bookmaker who is setting the line at his book.

The reference wasn't about the differences, it was about the mentality vs reality.

Teams lose. There is a reason why nobody is always right. I'm sure many have thought their system was solid, and they ended up losing the farm trying to back the system. It's odd that you would state in your first post that your system wasn't netting. Then when it finally does start netting, it's a working system.

At any rate continue doing you and having fun. :thumbsup:

Odd so much system talk lately.

edit: For the record I understand that betting methods and analysis as it relates to sports and horse racing can be and is very complex. My main point is there is a group that consistently makes money and will keep making money. We aren't in that group (well maybe some of you are).
 

Bullajami

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Skeptics and cynics abound. That's OK, it takes one to know one, as they say, and I've been one for most of my life.

I've also been gambling online for about a decade now. Mostly sports betting and poker, but I do some casino gambling also. System touts are common in sports betting. Actual winning systems are far more rare. If someone is promoting a sports betting system and you're NOT skeptical, I have some oceanfront property in Oklahoma for sale...

I'm not promoting anything, though. I've been a member of this forum for more than 8 years and I don't recall trying to sell anything to anyone here during that time. I was just gloating. Not because my system finally worked, but because my system is working for the fourth of the four seasons I've tried it on. :)

I am seeing some misconceptions about sports betting in this thread that I would like to address.

Casino games are purely games of chance played against the house where the house nearly always has an advantage. This is not true of sports
betting. A sportsbook is a market where bets are made on an issue - a sporting event. A sportsbook has many things in common with an exchange
(like the NYSE), but with one huge difference - at a sportsbook the market influences the price (the line), but does not set it. At a sportsbook a linemaker determines the price.

If a large amount of money comes in on one side of an issue at an exchange, then the price will move. If a large amount of money comes in on one side of an issue at a sportsbook, then the line MIGHT move. It depends on the linemaker. He might move the line. He might assume additional risk. He might lay the risk off at another sportsbook. Etc. He has choices. Sometimes his choice will create a price that is a value in the market. This creates opportunity you don't get in casino gaming.

Math matters. After 2,000+ bets I could be an outlier. After a million bets I could still be an outlier. By the same reasoning Warren Buffet and Doyle Brunson might just be 'lucky' in the markets they chose to play in. I wouldn't bet against them, though. ;)
 
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