Minimum Wage partially to blame for high unemployment in the USA

[felicie]

I wonder why with such 'devastating effects' does it keep being raised.


By: Walter Williams 05/09/11 8:05 PM
Examiner Columnist
As if more proof were needed about the minimum wage's devastating effects, yet another study has reached the same conclusion.

Last week, two labor economists, Professors William Even (Miami University of Ohio) and David Macpherson (Trinity University), released a study for the Washington, D.C.-based Employment Policies Institute titled "Unequal Harm: Racial Disparities in the Employment Consequences of Minimum Wage Increases."

During the peak of what has been dubbed the Great Recession of 2008, the unemployment rate for young adults (16 to 24 years of age) as a whole rose to more than 27 percent. The unemployment rate for black young adults was almost 50 percent, but for young black males, it was 55 percent.

Even and Macpherson say that it would be easy to say this tragedy is an unfortunate byproduct of the recession, but if you said so, you'd be wrong. Their study demonstrates that increases in the minimum wage at both the state and federal level are partially to blame for the crisis in employment for minority young adults.

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[chuchu59]

we just introduced minimum wage in hong kong this month. we will need to see the effects in the next 12 months. signs not looking too good though.

 

[felicie]

we just introduced minimum wage in hong kong this month. we will need to see the effects in the next 12 months. signs not looking too good though.

Really chuchu that is interesting. I think I shall pursue this further. Hell I just found out you guys aren't even communists anymore. lol Thanks I'll be back.

 

[rainmaker]

We do not have a general minimum wage, but a rather complex system based on public negotiations within each sector/industry.

For example, the hourly minimum wage for a trained construction worker is about $30 (US $) per hour in Norway.

 

[felicie]

We do not have a general minimum wage, but a rather complex system based on public negotiations within each sector/industry.

For example, the hourly minimum wage for a trained construction worker is about $30 (US $) per hour in Norway.

Based more on what the actual job is worth maybe or do you mean unions? And I bet you have a short working season. Construction I mean. Here's another article that clearly (to me) shows the negative side effects of raising it too high and I'm thinking we shouldn't have it at all but it's probably a little late for that.


Jay Ambrose: Ask American Samoa how minimum wage killed jobs

By: Jay Ambrose 01/20/10 5:00 AM
Examiner Columnist

It was a warm and fuzzy feature. It was on CBS's "60 Minutes," and told how American Samoa produced a wildly disproportionate number of NFL football players for its population of 65,000.

It was nice to be hearing something positive amid all the current sadness until the announcer mentioned in passing how the economy of that South Pacific territory had been ruined by a minimum wage mandate from Congress.

What? Could it be that Congress had again found a way to wreck people's lives?

I looked it up. It is true. In 2007, Congress bypassed the usual method of having the Labor Department adjust American Samoan wage minimums and dictated that the current $3.76 for canning fish would increase to $7.25 in stages by 2014. It wasn't all that long before Chicken of the Sea said goodbye, we're gone, have fun.

That meant a loss of 2,041 jobs right there, and the next thing you knew, Star Kist was also reducing jobs, and if you think a couple of thousand jobs here and another thousand or two there don't mean anything, understand that when you put all the possible losses together, you are talking about more than a fourth of the employment picture on those islands.

For better than a half-century, canning has been the heart of economy in American Samoa as the territory has sent the United States a reported two-thirds of the canned tuna bought here. No wonder we learn from one writer that Samoans themselves didn't want this new minimum.

Given competition from Thailand (pay at 60 cents an hour) and a host of other factors, they knew the increase could kill the industry locally. And even though the Obama administration has recently delayed the next round of wage increases, it looks possible that the demise has all but occurred with little to no chance of resurrection.

All of this is incredible because dozens of studies over past decades have proved beyond any reasonable doubt that minimum wage increases invariably do more harm than good, often eliminating jobs or making them part time. Beginners don't get a chance to get a foothold and start the climb to better things.

It's hardly ever heads of households who hold the minimum wage jobs, but other contributors who suddenly aren't making anything to contribute. Small businesses that might eventually have grown into large businesses get flattened. And meanwhile, we are talking a tiny fraction of hourly workers who make the minimum, something under 2 percent.

So what you get with these increases are strutting, obnoxious politicians pretending to be great benefactors of the human race at the same time they are kicking people to economic death. We are seeing a lot of this kind of thing in Washington today -- a stimulus bill that cost as much as the Iraq war and has stimulated very nearly nothing and, most famously at the moment, health care legislation that could help throw this country into an economic tailspin as it achieves nothing to improve health care, and not a fraction of what was promised in any other regard.

And, of course, President Obama has another minimum wage increase in mind for the country as a whole after he finishes up some other mischief, ranging from plans to make illegal aliens legal, to plans to strangle the possibilities of recession-ending growth with new missions adopted by his Environmental Protection Agency.

For the moment, I am feeling especially sorry for the Samoans. That "60 Minutes" episode showed what a truly special spirit they seem to have. They are now going to need it for a lot more than football success.

Examiner Columnist Jay Ambrose is a former Washington opinion writer and editor of two dailies. He can be reached at [email protected].

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[GrandMaster]

Last week, two labor economists, Professors William Even (Miami University of Ohio) and David Macpherson (Trinity University), released a study for the Washington, D.C.-based Employment Policies Institute titled "Unequal Harm: Racial Disparities in the Employment Consequences of Minimum Wage Increases."

Do you always take everything at face value? You could do some of your own research as well, it is really easy in the internet age. From

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: "The institute operates out of the offices of Berman & Co., a Washington, D.C., public relations organization which lobbies on behalf of the restaurant, hotel, alcoholic beverage and tobacco industries." This is not independent research, but research financed by people who have an interest in lowering or abolishing the minimum wage, who try to dress up their own interests as the interests of the nation.

 

[chuchu59]

Really chuchu that is interesting. I think I shall pursue this further. Hell I just found out you guys aren't even communists anymore. lol Thanks I'll be back.

hong kong was never communist. mainland china is more interested in capitalism nowadays it seems.

 

[felicie]

Do you always take everything at face value? You could do some of your own research as well, it is really easy in the internet age. From

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: "The institute operates out of the offices of Berman & Co., a Washington, D.C., public relations organization which lobbies on behalf of the restaurant, hotel, alcoholic beverage and tobacco industries." This is not independent research, but research financed by people who have an interest in lowering or abolishing the minimum wage, who try to dress up their own interests as the interests of the nation.

No disrespect Grand Master but maybe you could put me on ignore too.

 

[felicie]

I don't need to do research to know I don't particularly like the idea of the government telling us how much we have to pay someone anymore than I liked the affirmative action plan but the latter I imagine did improve lives of the workers it set out to help whereas minimum wage has hurt the workers it set out to help. I think these laws need to be revisited and changed once it's obvious they do harm and I just wanted to get some opinions on it and I thank those of you who gave one. It will be interesting to me anyway, to see how it works out for Hong Kong.

 

[FreeDomme]

No disrespect Grand Master but maybe you could put me on ignore too.

I would prefer to see two sides so I hope he doesn't follow your recommendation.

 

[greasemonkey]

I can tell you first hand that minimum wage is destructive.

Firstly, the politicians know this but the liberals always want to push a minimum wage hike through around election time to get votes from those too ignorant to understand the ramifications.

Here is how it really works:

My company makes dessert products so if you raise minimum wage then the raw materials and packaging we get will get increased. This is because everyone at the paper cup company just got a raise (you can't raise the minimum wage jobs long before those that were making a bit more want a raise to stay ahead of the janitors or line workers). so the companies that make and send the packaging and raw materials are forced to raise prices to keep profit margin. BUT if they are going to raise prices anyways they don't just do it to the penny. For example if a paper cup cost them .2c to make then minimum wage increased and it now cost them .3c to make then they will just increase the price to .4c per cup since they have a reason to raise anyways. This will give them a bit of breathing room on thier price anyways.

So then you have the warehouses/distributors that must buy at a higher price. PLUS they have increased costs from minimum wage also. So they were buying at .2c and selling at .4c. Now they are buying at .4c and selling at .8c.

Which gets to my company. I was buying at .4c. Now I am buying it at .8c. I too have minimum wage employees. So MY costs go up not just with the materials but with my overhead and employees. So every single thing used in my product has gone up PLUS my employee expense. So I was selling to the stores a cup of ice cream for .19c a cup. Now it is .28c per cup. It used to cost me .11c per cup now it costs me .17c to make. Since I had to raise prices I moved my margin ahead a bit.

NOW this is where it hurts people also - - You used to make minimum wage and go buy a cup of icecream from the store for .60c. Now it is .95c to buy it for you. So even though your wages increased your buying power DECREASED. It hurt everyone. On top of that in order to keep costs down each level of this process figured ways of decreasing employees because it was ineffective to pay them that much in many cases as their work was not worth that much. A company is not a charity and cannot take a loss on low level employees or we all get hurt. That is socialistic and it is horrible for our economy.

 

[Nifty29]

Yep. Absolutely.

No wage increases for low paid workers. Ever.

Who cares about inflation? Or quality of life? Or little luxuries that most take for granted?

Nah, these people are poor and they need to know their place.

GM - your wholesale price jumped to .29c because you took advantage of the situation to increase your profit margin by 50%. People pay 95c for icecream based not on min wage changes alone, but your commercial greed. The actual effects of min wage rises are less than some proport due to other businesses doing what you did, which IMO is unethical and certainly worse than giving poorer workers a few cents more.

 

[greasemonkey]

Yep. Absolutely.

No wage increases for low paid workers. Ever.

Who cares about inflation? Or quality of life? Or little luxuries that most take for granted?

Nah, these people are poor and they need to know their place.

GM - your wholesale price jumped to .29c because you took advantage of the situation to increase your profit margin by 50%. People pay 95c for icecream based not on min wage changes alone, but your commercial greed. The actual effects of min wage rises are less than some proport due to other businesses doing what you did, which IMO is unethical and certainly worse than giving poorer workers a few cents more.

...and this sort of simple, short term thinking is why minimum wage laws get passed and hurt the economy.

1). It wasnt just my layer of the equation if you go read my post. It was the raw material company, the distributors, then me, (then another distributor actually), then the retail store. Every level had to raise prices and the cost spiraled because the govt. interfered.

2.) again, you just read that minimum wage increases actually DECREASE the buying power of those making minimum wage (and all of us actually). yet you are still in favor of raising the minimum wage on a govt mandate? Why would you want to do this? If you care about "poor people" then why in the world would you want to increase minimum wage and hurt their ability to purchase goods/services?

3). If the govt. sticks their nose in the private sector and dictates who gets paid and how much then they are hurting the free market system and will always cause damage. The only way (on paper) minimum wage could possibly help those making that amount is to demand that prices do NOT increase. You can't do that either or the business owners will no longer run the business or expand and create more jobs. Their would be no incentive. That is the very core of why socialism/communism always fails.

4). Many minimum wage earners are teenagers or young adults just trying to make some extra money. They do not make the business that they work for enough money to cover their wages/costs in many cases. Hence their are less jobs available. If the govt. would keep their nose out of it then their would be more min. wage jobs available.

 

[felicie]

Yep. Absolutely.

No wage increases for low paid workers. Ever.

Who cares about inflation? Or quality of life? Or little luxuries that most take for granted?

Nah, these people are poor and they need to know their place.

GM - your wholesale price jumped to .29c because you took advantage of the situation to increase your profit margin by 50%. People pay 95c for icecream based not on min wage changes alone, but your commercial greed. The actual effects of min wage rises are less than some proport due to other businesses doing what you did, which IMO is unethical and certainly worse than giving poorer workers a few cents more.

I don't want to have slave labor nifty but how about keeping the minimum wage at a level small businesses can afford so jobs are not lost. There's no reason to get snitty about it. I've got friends living with me that can't afford a place of their own and also cannot find jobs right now and maybe there would be more jobs available if the minimum wage was at a more reasonable level.

I saw a man on the boob tube recently and he was saying the only way to lower unemployment for young black men living in the ghetto is to legalize drugs, thereby taking away the option to make really good money without ever having to leave your own neighborhood, until you go to prison of course.
I've looked at legalizing drugs as a way to get rid of the cartels maybe but never thought of the unemployment part of it.

The main thing to me is we need to review and fix some of these things that obviously don't work and time has proven they don't.

 

[Papa-ya]

Sorry haven't read all the points made here, but this is how I see wage hikes. Firstly people should be able to live affordably and comfortably, instead of being disregarded as vermin.

For every wage hike you get price hikes on everything, thus nullifying the purpose of increased wages.

For everything that is fixed, they have alternatives waiting in the wings to screw it up. So there is no winning for the plain and simple folk such as you and myself.

The world is run by those who have never known , "done without" and we, the done withouts are of no consequence to them.

But that's okay, maybe one day they will choke on their Pheasant bone.

Post note:
Also a study into Higalian Dialectic would give all of us a different point of view, on everything.

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[lots0]

The poor don't need wage protection... They don't need wages.. all they need is slop thrown to them once a day or so... if the worker gets hurt on the job just fire the lazy SOB.

Lets all go back to the wonderful labor relation days of the 1910's through the 1930's. When little children didn't waste their time in school, sucking off the good graces of the rich... they worked 14 hours a day 6 days a week and died in their twenties.

Those were the good old days.. Business owners were able to hire private police to kill women and children that were protesting for minim wages and safe working conditions without having to face charges.

Ya those pesky labor laws... lets do away with them all and go back to the 'good old days'...

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Just a very short list to show that people died and endured unimaginable horrors to gain the right to fair labor laws.

And now a few radicals want to take us all back to those 'good' old days... And they want us to follow them without even a whimper... They want us thinking that we are 'Helping' ourselves...

 

[lots0]

duplicate post

 

[gaydave]

The poor don't need wage protection... They don't need wages.. all they need is slop thrown to them once a day or so... if the worker gets hurt on the job just fire the lazy SOB.

Lets all go back to the wonderful labor relation days of the 1910's through the 1930's. When little children didn't waste their time in school, sucking off the good graces of the rich... they worked 14 hours a day 6 days a week and died in their twenties.

Those were the good old days.. Business owners were able to hire private police to kill women and children that were protesting for minim wages and safe working conditions without having to face charges.

Ya those pesky labor laws... lets do away with them all and go back to the 'good old days'...

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Just a short list to show that people died and endured unimaginable horrors to gain the right to fair labor laws.

And now a few radicals want to take us all back to those 'good' old days... And they want us to follow them without even a whimper... They want us thinking that we are 'Helping' ourselves...

I seldom read less insightful posts. I seldom see points of view so intellectually lazy and simple.

Did you not even read the other posts or did you not understand them?

Your posts are so far off the side. You cannot see how the minimum wage hikes hurt the economy? Or did you just not bother to try and digest all the information?

If your going to take the time to post then please take the time to digest the other poster's points, then make a reply that is not apples to oranges.

What the hell is so hard about reading and taking 5 minutes to think about it?

If minimum wage increases are so good then why not just make minimum wage $500 per hour? That would be great for those poor, downtrodden, obese people in America that are forced to work for minimum wage against their will.

If raising it a small amount is so brilliant then lets really help them and make it $500! Great reasoning Lots0... once again, Brilliant post.

Just come out and admit you are a communist already. Everything that you argue for is socialistic and goes directly against the freedoms that others in this country want.

 

[gaydave]

Yep. Absolutely.

No wage increases for low paid workers. Ever.

Who cares about inflation? Or quality of life? Or little luxuries that most take for granted?

Nah, these people are poor and they need to know their place.

GM - your wholesale price jumped to .29c because you took advantage of the situation to increase your profit margin by 50%. People pay 95c for icecream based not on min wage changes alone, but your commercial greed. The actual effects of min wage rises are less than some proport due to other businesses doing what you did, which IMO is unethical and certainly worse than giving poorer workers a few cents more.

I'm speaking my mind tonight. I am no longer going to try and be civil to those that are always jerks. Nifty, you are the king of jerks. Why couldn't you just reply without the attitude and smugness you little troll?

I hate reading your posts so much that I am leaving the forum for a long while cuz you make it unbearable. You must have no life.

I cringe everytime you derail a thread, everytime you insult people, everytime your a total douche (like in this case).

you just make it a horrible experience for many.

GM has made you look like a fool countless times on this board yet you still try to play with him? Good luck.

See you all later, I can't take this moron any longer.

 

[lots0]

I'm speaking my mind tonight. I am no longer going to try and be civil to those that are always jerks. Nifty, you are the king of jerks. Why couldn't you just reply without the attitude and smugness you little troll?

I hate reading your posts so much that I am leaving the forum for a long while cuz you make it unbearable. You must have no life.

I cringe everytime you derail a thread, everytime you insult people, everytime your a total douche (like in this case).

you just make it a horrible experience for many.

GM has made you look like a fool countless times on this board yet you still try to play with him? Good luck.

See you all later, I can't take this moron any longer.

Good Riddance... We don't need or want people that call names like children and can't act like an adult.

I am sure that after your little name calling tirade that your 'vacation' will not be entirely voluntarily...

Great reasoning Lots0... once again, Brilliant post.

I am glad you finally see, before you leave, that I am Brilliant

 

[jod5413]

And to think, people think I am snarky and out of line? Boy Howdy!

You have people wanting you to put them on ignore for no reason other than they disagree with each others POV.

People are being disrespected by other people, again because they have different points of view.

Once again, don't "do" politics if you are gonna have a cow over someone having a different point of view.

just my 2 cents

 

[greasemonkey]

And to think, people think I am snarky and out of line? Boy Howdy!

You have people wanting you to put them on ignore for no reason other than they disagree with each others POV.

People are being disrespected by other people, again because they have different points of view.

Once again, don't "do" politics if you are gonna have a cow over someone having a different point of view.

just my 2 cents

I agree. Its also not just that people disagree. Of course people will disagree. It is HOW you say it often that riles people. I'm guilty of this sometimes myself, admittedly.

Now people are angry not so much on what is being said but on the attitude it is being said with............and yet another thread derailed *yawn*

many of the usual suspects involved yet again, surprise, surprise.

 

[lots0]

I agree. Its also not just that people disagree. Of course people will disagree. It is HOW you say it often that riles people. I'm guilty of this sometimes myself, admittedly.

Now people are angry not so much on what is being said but on the attitude it is being said with............and yet another thread derailed *yawn*

many of the usual suspects involved yet again, surprise, surprise.

yes and I see that you are one of the most prolific posters in this thread.... lol

 

[greasemonkey]

yes and I see that you are one of the most prolific posters in this thread.... lol

No actually I was being nice Lots0. It is clearly an issue with you and Nifty on threads and then there being arguements (just like the one you are attempting to start now). That is nothing to do with the topic, nor in any way logical. It is apparent that your aim is to get under people's skin. I accept that. It is what you are. Fine.

In no way misunderstand your implication in several derailed threads and arguements. You clearly anger many people with your words. Nor will I ignore my hand in it.

 

[jod5413]

GM, I have been reading your posts since you started posting again. And I believe you are one of the most argumentative and snarky posters on the forum. As evidenced by you immediately answering my post, which did not beg answering, and tryng to rile people back up.

You have purposely tried to dis Nifty and Lots0, I guess to try and "get their backs up" again?

Next time you see a post like mine, it would probably be safe to assume it is being addressed to you.

Have a great night!

 

[lots0]

Clearly... it is an issue.
An issue that needs action... we need to put people in jail and make some more laws.

Waterboarding is in order... We must stomp out all this different thinking... it''s dangerous. People stating their opinions in an open political forum... outrageous!

 

[jod5413]

Clearly... it is an issue.
An issue that needs action... we need to put people in jail and make some more laws.

Waterboarding is in order... We must stomp out all this different thinking... it''s dangerous. People stating their opinions in an open political forum... outrageous!

Behave yourself, ya big ol' bear!!! No honey for you!!!

 

[Nifty29]

No actually I was being nice Lots0. It is clearly an issue with you and Nifty on threads and then there being arguements (just like the one you are attempting to start now). That is nothing to do with the topic, nor in any way logical. It is apparent that your aim is to get under people's skin. I accept that. It is what you are. Fine.

In no way misunderstand your implication in several derailed threads and arguements. You clearly anger many people with your words. Nor will I ignore my hand in it.

GM - why did you have to spoil what I thought was a reasonable debate with accusations that Lots0 and I are trolls (that's what you are saying)?

All I did was present my point of view. I didn't diss anyone, or call anyone names, or even suggest anyone else was a ' moron' etc.

You don't have to agree with my POV, just like I don't have to agree with yours.

You brought up other threads and made remarks about me personally and that was completely unjustified. My post was completely on-topic.

If you don't like what I say, PUT ME ON IGNORE for goodness sake . Or, if you want to continue debating this topic and other relevant topics then I'm all ears.

P.S.

I thought gaydave had me on "ignore"...????

 

[lots0]

I am starting to think we should ask Bryan to close the political forum.

It has caused nothing but flames and hard feelings.
Driven off good members on both sides of the political spectrum and the political forum seems to have attracted some folks that are only interested in politics and promoting their political view.

It is unfortunate that some can't participate in a political discussion without name calling, flames and personal digs. But that is in fact the case. So maybe it is time move on to more gambling and less politics...

And I am sure that Bryan and Max are getting very tired of having to babysit grown adults...

Maybe a poll of the membership on this issue?

 

[maxd]

I seldom read less insightful posts. I seldom see points of view so intellectually lazy and simple.

... I am no longer going to try and be civil to those that are always jerks. Nifty, you are the king of jerks. ... everytime your a total douche (like in this case).

Looks like somebody needs a little enforced vacation time: 2 weeks for flaming, troll behaviour and Forum Rules violations. As Bryan says "please come back with a better attitude".

 

[jod5413]

Thank you, Max.

 

[Rhyzz]

Wage increases should be linked to a strong economy. As inflation goes up, interest rates should go up which in turn gives banks more money to lend, encouraging new businesses and further employment. It's one big circle, so writing off wage increases and saying it hurts the economy based on these factors is wrong. However, Grease does make a good point that by increasing wages without signs of an economic recovery, you're just making the situation worse.

Ireland and the UK have it very wrong in my opinion, minimum wages are not enough to cope with inflation, yet businesses have no money because the banks won't lend, thus leading to redundancy. It's a vicious circle but they would never ever drop the minimum wage because companies won't drop their prices in response. Petrol is a perfect example - prices plummeted recently but the prices at the pumps remained the same, it's a joke.

 

[felicie]

GM, I have been reading your posts since you started posting again. And I believe you are one of the most argumentative and snarky posters on the forum. As evidenced by you immediately answering my post, which did not beg answering, and tryng to rile people back up.

You have purposely tried to dis Nifty and Lots0, I guess to try and "get their backs up" again?

Next time you see a post like mine, it would probably be safe to assume it is being addressed to you.

Have a great night!

Ouch!

 

[GrandMaster]

A different opinion on the minimum wage: Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)

 

[Nifty29]

A different opinion on the minimum wage: Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)

Thanks GM. Good article.

Now its time to sit back and watch the sparks fly....

 

[vinylweatherman]

The minimum wage was designed to ensure that the state did not subsidise businesses who paid so little that employees had to supplement their earnings with handouts from the state.
It was a very simple concept that underestimated the complexities of how different factors interact within an economy.
If minimum wage cost rise, businesses will look to cut costs elsewhere. This usually means job losses, so even the initial aim of saving the state money is not achieved. It could even be costing the state MORE to have a legal minimum wage than it would cost to pay benefits to low paid workers. If this is the case, minimum wage is not working, and governments should look for an alternative.

One would be to ensure that business tax covers the overall costs of state subsidies to low paid workers, with businesses able to pay what the workers will accept, and the workers getting the difference in state benefits. The costs would not hit individual businesses, so we would not get vulnerable ones being driven to the wall through having to bear a cost disproportionate to the profits they make. A struggling business would NOT be saddled with a disproportionate level of taxation.

Recent government thinking says that we NEED inflation in order to get continual economic growth. This is fine for the RICH, who can make money from inflation, but a bad deal for the POOR, and those on fixed income like pensioners, who CANNOT increase their income to make up for inflation.

For the poor, a RECESSION and DEflation is better than INflation, as it means shops CUT prices in order to shift goods, and by buying intelligently, the poor can get a better deal than they can in times of "boom". The rich HATE this, as they get LESS money coming in from their investments, and can even end up joining the ranks of the poor overnight if their businesses go bust.

The minimum wage rules also mean that the poor are NOT free to negotiate a lower wage with an employer who would otherwise not give them a job at all. This denies them a start in their working career, which might lead them to get better paid jobs in the future.

The ONLY way around this is to become a self employed "sole trader", and charge as little as you like for a job.

Oddly enough, even the RICH might suffer from the abolition of the minimum wage, because there would be LESS money available to be spent, and thus LESS money available to be made by busineses such as retail and services. The government (in other words, RICH MPs) would face being voted out of office by those voters who saw their income slashed by the abolition of the minimum wage, thus however good an idea for the long term it might seem, no government would want to take the short term risk.