Mathematical Proof that English Harbour is cheating

[thelawnet]

I have now also run an experiment to test if the doubling at english harbour is fair. I have done the test in play money mode, Jacks and better single hand.

My results are: 37 wins, and 100 losses. According to my calculations this is almost an -5.4 standard deviation event if the game had been fair. The conclusion is the therefore the same as thelawnets':

The dubling feature at english harbour is not fair.

However, I have also done a similar experiment at fire and ice casino with a result of 55 wins and 59 losses, which of course is not unormal. My conclusion of from that experiment is therefore:

It has not been shown that the doubling feature at Ice and fire casino is not fair.

Is seems like different casinos using the same software can deal different games. It would be good if others would like to duplicate the experiments to try out different casinos using thje same software.

I agree.

I tried Hot Pepper (sister of Fire and Ice), and doing a very brief test, got 12 wins, 11 losses.

A very brief test on Millionare casino (in the English Harbour group), came up 9 wins, 17 losses.

So my belief is that the English Harbour group of casinos are all cheating, but non English Harbour casinos are likely not.

The group is

Apostle Casino
Casino Bleu Blanc Rouge
Caribbean Gold Casino
English Harbour Casino
Super Slots Casino
Millionaire Casino
Magic Lamp Casino
All Poker Casino
Silver Dollar Casino

 

[Simmo!]

Liquid, I have respected your posts for a long time but your posts to this thread border on insanity.

Be fair on the guy TLN, he later retracted his statement and admitted he doesn't believe himslef anymore. That deserves credit.

I know these are smallish samples, and I've always been a fan of large samples before seeing something as statistical proof, but I have to say this is looking decidedly spooky. I agree with whoever it was earlier - run it by Michael Shackleford at WizardOfOdds and get his opinion.

None of these small samples people have contributed are even close to 50/50.

Keep the samples coming...would suggest sticking to fun mode for now though. Will try myself later.

Simmo!

 

[realwtfsup]

Looked up Odds On software on Wizard of Odds site. This is right on top.

Disclaimer: Let it be known that I have served as a consultant to Odds On. This review attempts to be unbiased and mostly sticks to the game rules, odds, and strategy. While I feel comfortable there is no conflict of interest I think it is appropriate to disclose the relationship.

Odds On has a good selection of games, with many games unique to Odds On. The odds vary from stingy to competitive depending on the game. In general the games of skill tend to offer good odds (although blackjack is an exception) and games of luck are more tight.

Will see what he has to say about there software now. I am convinced they are a cheating software.

 

[dresden]

My 100-double trial results on play money at English Harbour:

W - 22
L - 64
T -14

 

[realwtfsup]

From the Wizardofodds blacklist is this.

All Elka System/Oyster Gaming casinos: After getting some anecdotal evidence that Netgaming.com was cheating in free play mode I gave them a try. In their single zero roulette game I placed 200 bets on red. My results were 133 wins and 67 losses. The probability of 133 or more wins in 200 spins is 1 in 3,788,515. So obviously they were letting me win. I blame the software for this and thus add all Elka/Oyster Gaming casinos to my blacklist

He only needed 200 bets to claim there software is cheating.

 

[realwtfsup]

My results

I played Dueces & Joker 4 play doubled once after every win

Loss 61
win 33
tie 6

 

[The Dude]

M. Shackleford is the auditor (or at least the one they use) for Oddson.
"Certified Fair Gambling Seal of Approval"

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

As far as I know, individual operators have no influence on any particular game's output or they way they function. And this is the first time that I remember anyone complaining about Oddson VP. I'll check on this in the next day or so. (it's a holiday weekend here).

 

[thelawnet]

M. Shackleford is the auditor (or at least the one they use) for Oddson.
"Certified Fair Gambling Seal of Approval"

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

As far as I know, individual operators have no influence on any particular game's output or they way they function. And this is the first time that I remember anyone complaining about Oddson VP. I'll check on this in the next day or so. (it's a holiday weekend here).

To clarify, it appears to be specifically limited to the English Harbour group rather than all OddsOn. I had no problems when I played last year, so it's possible the software was bad then but I did not notice it; otherwise, something has changed.

With regards to any audit, it would take hundreds of hours to actually audit every line of code and check that it is fair, and would be a major break on ay software upgrade plans. I would imagine that an audit is limited to the random number generator's ability to produce random number, and find it extremely improbable that he has actually audited the doublign code.

 

[Zoozie]

The so far small samples gives a clear indication of 'suspicious' doubling feature at one casino group using OddsOn software. However even if it is just one casino group and given there is cheating involved, the problem lies within the OddsOn software and all OddsOn casinos should be rogued since the software can be manipulated. And if it can be manipulated I would expect that the English Harbour group decide to 'unmanipulate' this very fast again. So we might be in a hurry to collect a large sample size.

It also comes to my mind that whenever such an accusation occours, people that feel cheated (or was unlucky) are much more likely to post these results than those who was luckier. However I find this case interesting as I myself (confirming my theory) really
feel cheated when doubling VP at English Harbour casino. So I never double anymore at any casino. (W=2 L=23 or something very close after I increased bet to 5$, dont know if bet size is important, it could be).

It is a very serious accusation so stay cool and let some experts investigate it and not
turn this into a witch hunt.




Zoozie

 

[thelawnet]

The so far small samples gives a clear indication of 'suspicious' doubling feature at one casino group using OddsOn software. However even if it is just one casino group and given there is cheating involved, the problem lies within the OddsOn software and all OddsOn casinos should be rogued since the software can be manipulated. And if it can be manipulated I would expect that the English Harbour group decide to 'unmanipulate' this very fast again. So we might be in a hurry to collect a large sample size.

It also comes to my mind that whenever such an accusation occours, people that feel cheated (or was unlucky) are much more likely to post these results than those who was luckier.

That is a good point, and you do get from time to time people saying that they lost 18 out of 20 hands at intercasino or whatever, and the point then is it probably is just a freak sample.

But here I have posted a sample, and people who have never played at the casino before and do not feel cheated because they have not given them any money, have posted their results, and they confirm what I said, which is that they are cheating.

 

[tennis_balls]

are you sure this is oddson software?

casinocity has these casinos listed as using software by Vegas Technology

Link Removed (invalid URL)

 

[spearmaster]

It's Vegas Technology - which is supposedly a new provider taking over from Odds On. Don't know if it's the same programmers behind it, but the platform is entirely new and you will not find any of the old Odds On games.

 

[sk2005]

That is not well said at all.

In many events, statistical proof can be obtained with a relatively small sample size.

For example say I run a coin-flip game. I rig it so that it's not 50/50, but instead its 49.9999/50.0001 in my favor. In this case someone will need a very large sample size to prove that the game is rigged.

Now say I rig it so that it is 20/80 in my favor. Now someone will need a very small sample to prove it's rigged. Something in the order of 50 tries should be more than enough.

In the case of the EH doubling game the statistical proof is overwhelming, especially when you factor in the results of other forum members who tested.

It is flat out impossible that this game represent an honest representation of a doubling game, and any mathematician will agree.

Actually, i was laughing at the idea that the only way to prove software cheating is to play 100.000 hands betting big (because ,theoretically, software should be rigged for the big bets in the first place) and lose a huge amount of money.

 

[sk2005]

Did anyone test Playtech's vp doubling feature? I am more than sure it is rigged for several months already.

 

[liquidsoap]

Ok Last time I am admitting I am wrong
Same results, as last 200 basically....
But I also noticed I did not win a double when I got a qualifying hand of 3 or a kind or better....
Serouisly Disregard my last posts didnt realize it was this bad
Sorry for my early posts
The most doubles in a row I won were 3
The most doubles in a row I lost were 13

Get the wizard of odds to get these guys
Sure it will take alot of trials, but he will find a way and it will go as expected.

Good job TLN :notworthy :notworthy

 

[oblomov]

It's Vegas Technology - which is supposedly a new provider taking over from Odds On. Don't know if it's the same programmers behind it, but the platform is entirely new and you will not find any of the old Odds On games.

According to Online Casino City ..."The company (oddson) produces the Vegas Technology brand of software."Link Removed (invalid URL)

Excellent thread Lawnet, thanks for your work.

Nice touch Dresden!

 

[Zoozie]

Did anyone test Playtech's vp doubling feature? I am more than sure it is rigged for several months already.

I tested playtech doubling (think it was at Prestige casino back when they were reliable..). I did over 500 doubles and the wins/looses was very close to 1 as expected. Actually I had more wins than looses.This is not a proff though, but I was satisfied. It was not as obvious skewed as the results posted so far in this thread.

It was very easy to test on Playtech because of the 'half double' feature. I
was playing real money and just half-doubled until I lost. I won 10 times in a row during that session actually (shame it was only 'half' doubles...).

BUT if it can be configured as seems the case with English Harbour, this means that you can not ask if the double feature is fair generally since it could change over time. Also bet size could matter. (higher bet= higher loose chance). Anyone with insight into the software can confirm there is no
standard configuration setting to chance this? If it can be configured, the
software is rouged, even though if casinos can claim they have it configured correct (fair).

Zoozie

 

[Simmo!]

Okay here's my "sample" of 200 doubles from English Harbour "Flash" version (Deuces & Joker VP) to add to the pot:

Sample: 200

Tied Hands: 20

Won Hands: 65

Lost Hands: 115



Simmo!

 

[gfkostas]

Okay here's my "sample" of 200 doubles from English Harbour "Flash" version (Deuces & Joker VP) to add to the pot:

Sample: 200

Tied Hands: 20

Won Hands: 65

Lost Hands: 115



Simmo!

Everyone keeps losing, this is going to get nasty

 

[tencardcharlie]

Won Hands: 65

Lost Hands: 115

A quick calculation tells me that there is slightly less than 0.01% chance to get such a bad result or worse.

Rogue 'em.

 

[nafanny29]

I couldnt resist either. Mine are:

Tie 19
Win 61
Lose 120

Not good at all. Always thought English Harbour were dodgy anyway before this.

 

[Zoozie]

Won Hands: 65

Lost Hands: 115

Thanks Simmo, though I have no comments to the results
It is good to have these data from a unquestionably reliable source.

Zoozie

 

[tennis_balls]

my little sample

i just did a 100 hand sample of the doubling feature using the 4 handed deuces wild on play money version of Caribbean Gold

Sample: 100

Ties: 5

Wins: 36

Losses: 59

also i noticed several instances where the program would suggest that I hold less than optimum cards. Once I got dealt a pair of deuces and the program suggested to hold a 7 as well. Another time I got dealt 4 to a deuces wild royal flush and the program suggested to hold all 5 cards for a straight.

 

[sk2005]

so, if my calculation is not wrong, the results of 13 members of this forum playing vp doubling game at Oddson's (or vegastechnology) casinos are:

wins 522
losses 1015

or , for every one win- two losses. Not exactly 50/50 game

 

[Macgyver]

I think (and it's just my own personal, subjective opinion) that people should be concentrating on English Harbour rather than the software provider.

If proof is obtained on English Harbour specifically, then move on to another casino that uses the same software and prove that the doubling there isn't 50/50.

Basically, let's stick to what the title of this thread says and not clutter it with other casinos who use the same software.

That may just be me, though ...

 

[gfkostas]

I think (and it's just my own personal, subjective opinion) that people should be concentrating on English Harbour rather than the software provider.

If proof is obtained on English Harbour specifically, then move on to another casino that uses the same software and prove that the doubling there isn't 50/50.

Basically, let's stick to what the title of this thread says and not clutter it with other casinos who use the same software.

That may just be me, though ...

I agree. Also thelawnet should be credited for bringing this into our attention.

 

[sirius]

oh dear

One of my first forum posts on my site (on the day it was launched over 3 years ago) was to say how useless and misleading these payout percentage audits were and even specifically mentioned how the WizardOfOdds service was a bad idea and basically unethical. His 'Certified Fair Gaming' seal is displayed for all OddsOn software casinos after doing a deal with them to perform monthly audits. Other casinos also given his seal included the infamous Hampton and Portofino RTG sites.

Now it turns out that the doubling feature on the VP is not a fair game at all on the English Harbour Group but seems fair for others using the software. I don't think anyone can deny it unless everyone on this forum is lying about their results. In case people have forgotten or don't know, this group was acquired by the VIP Sports group (Leisure and Gaming PLC) for $2,750,000 in December 2005.

 

[Linus]

It's amazing these casinos aren't satisfied with the house advantage games - they have to outright cheat the players on top of that.

Since they are "above the law" (I guess "beyond the law" is a better phrase) - there's little anyone can do about it. I suspect they'll notice this thread, eventually, and adjust their software. Either way, if they're willing to cheat their players so obviously, in such an simple game, there's no reason to think the rest of their software is fair.

The only defense players have is to spread the word. Let your friends know to stay away.

 

[EyeOnPosting]

I just spent a couple hours testing there software and have determined everything is Fair.

139 wins
145 losses
18 ties

 

[Zoozie]

I just spent a couple hours testing there software and have determined everything is Fair.

139 wins
145 losses
18 ties

Which was why it was important we collected some data fast, which several members did. I am not surprised the picture has changed, the question was how long it would take.

Zoozie

 

[realwtfsup]

Time for people to retest the software. Today my results were this

Deuces and Joker 4play
Loss 35
win 59
tie 6

I think people will get normal results right now.

 

[Linus]

Yep. I just did another 50 - W26, L21, T3.

I noticed the software patched itself when I connected to their server.

 

[nektar4d]

there must be a Judas among us here

Which was why it was important we collected some data fast, which several members did. I am not surprised the picture has changed, the question was how long it would take.

Zoozie

How true!
Judas warned the casino for 30 credits.
30 credits of what?

 

[spearmaster]

Time for people to retest the software. Today my results were this

Deuces and Joker 4play
Loss 35
win 59
tie 6

I think people will get normal results right now.

These aren't exactly normal results either... LOL...

 

[jetset]

This was reported to Leisure and Gaming yesterday, the parent group for EH and I'm assured it is being investigated.

BTW Mike Shackleton certifies the software and has also been alerted.

 

[spearmaster]

Yep. I just did another 50 - W26, L21, T3.

I noticed the software patched itself when I connected to their server.

This is also strange. No element involving calculation of results should be on your computer. The software should only be a GUI - graphic user interface - which displays results as sent by the server.

 

[Simmo!]

Okay here's a new "sample" of 200 doubles. Decidedly different to the first, and almost exactly what you'd expect:

Sample: 200

Tied Hands: 9

Won Hands: 96

Lost Hands: 95


Simmo!

 

[Zoozie]

At least Oddson software does not directly say they can manipulate payout%. This software provider "Start you own Casino" actually wrote this on their product page according to WoO.

This is from the Oddson-site:
The Management (Back Office) Software is unmatched in its superior power, functionality, and flexibility. It incorporates HTML-based, high-encryption web page technology —the most secure and advanced available—and does not require any specialized proprietary products. Information on player registration, games played, wagering g and account balances is captured and compiled in a multitude of reports:

The only interesting here is the "superior power, functionality, and flexibility". Maybe too superior

Zoozie

 

[thelawnet]

Yep. I just did another 50 - W26, L21, T3.

I noticed the software patched itself when I connected to their server.

Yes I saw that too.

here's my results:

Wins 25
Losses 17

A 'normal' positive session.

Seems they were able to turn off the cheating very easily, which make sense, when the other Odds On Casinos did not have the cheating feature.

 

[thelawnet]

I agree. Also thelawnet should be credited for bringing this into our attention.

I also hope that I and all the other cheated players are refunded our losses.

 

[Zoozie]

I also hope that I and all the other cheated players are refunded our losses.

I think we all know how likely this is... And also quite impossible to do fair.
Some might have lost anyway and we need to know when the cheat mode was
activated. Since they now have gotten rid of the evidence (given that there actually was cheating involved) it will be hard to prove anything.

I have little faith in the software and I believe Oddson should make a statement which could be one of the following.

1) It is impossible to configurate/manipulate the software! (which brings us nowhere really, but it is important anyway that we get this garantie.)
2) Some cheating might have been possible but was done by English Harbour only and they will try fix this 'flaw' in the software.

If I had a casino and wanted to cheat this way, I think I would only change this configuration for short
time intervals (few hours). Would make it damn hard to prove.

Players need to have 100% confidence in the software!

Zoozie

 

[nafanny29]

Well this situation proves that casinos can manipulate the software at will.

I still say most casinos wouldnt ever cheat but the power of the dollar can corrupt the most honest of folks.

I wonder how many other games at English Harbour are tweaked in the houses favour. All of them proberly.

 

[thelawnet]

I think we all know how likely this is... And also quite impossible to do fair.

Who cares whether it is fair or not? Anyone who doubled and lost needs to be refunded. Whether it is fair is something they should have thought about before they started cheating people.

I doubt they would be able to negate all the results of all people's doubles, so failing that just refund the losses. Online casinos must not be allowed to behave in a criminal manner, get caught doing it, change things around, say 'everything is ok, and by the way don't worry about the thousands of dollars we made cheating people, they aren't getting a penny, but please come back to play soon.'

 

[Zoozie]

Who cares whether it is fair or not? Anyone who doubled and lost needs to be refunded. Whether it is fair is something they should have thought about before they started cheating people.

I really agree with you, but I am also realistic. I got cheated myself maybe... that is the problem.

Zoozie

 

[tronk]

win - 18 / lose - 9 / draw -1

I didnt bother carrying on as it seems obvious from the last few results that the problems been fixed. It also is obvious that the video poker JOB provided an UNFAIR game between satuarday and monday morning. English Harbour will have been alerted to this thread straight away, no doubt fixing the glitch with upmost haste.

At the least a statement needs to be be made by EH and the s/w provider. Just because its fair now, doesnt mean it always was.

As someone metioned yeah maybe they can alter the payout's for short (and profitable no doubt) sessions. The end of the month would be the perfect time. But who knows? until a reason is provided they are suspect in my book, and the other casinos runnig odds on will thereby be guilty by association.

 

[Aindreas_Daoc]

Good thing a lot of forum members got their data in. I imagine if only one or two people did, EH could easily "fix" the "problem", and claim nothing ever happened.

Now I'm waiting on the official response. Will they own up to it? Or was it just a software error?

In either case will people who doubled during the period where the software was cheating get any sort of compensation? Will they even be honest about how long the flaw was present?

The flaw could have been there for months before TLN brought it up here, will they admit the actual period, and will they compensate players who played during that whole time? Or just the past 3-4 days?

We will see, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the casino will choose a course of action that puts their bottomline ahead of their integrity.

 

[Linus]

The bottom line is that if you're playing online, you're betting on a hope and a prayer. I'm guessing there will be little or no recourse for anyone who's been cheated by English Harbour. No money will be paid back, and the casino will go on like nothing happened.

If you like to gamble, you're better off at a land-based casino. You might lose money at MGM or Harrah's, but at least you don't have to worry about being cheated.

 

[GrandMaster]

I was suspicious of the fairness of the doubling on English Harbour's video poker. So I deposited and carefully recorded data for over an hour, doubling after every win, except I collected any large wins, and recording for each double the result, win, lose or push.

I played until I lost all my money (playing 4 line, single coin, recording wins, losses and ties on the doubling game (I did not record the video poker itself - I was only concerned with the double).

According to my data, it is 99.999% certain that English Harbour is not offering a fair doubling game in their Tens or Better video poker game.

Although nothing is completely certain, 99.999% would be good enough to convict a man and sentence him to death, so I think it is good enough for any reasonable person in the world to be satisfied that English Harbour is a cheating casino.

Here are my results:
84 wins
151 losses
19 ties

Ignoring the ties (which push and therefore have no effect), there should be an equal number of wins and losses on the doubling game.

As you can see from 84 wins vs 151 losses, there were not: the results were hugely skewed in English Harbour's favour.

By use of the binomial theorem in Excel, =binomdist(84,84+151,.5,true), it appears that the chance of only 84 wins out of 235 trials with a fair (50/50) game is only 0.0000074.

Accordingly I recommend you AVOID this casino and the others in its group, as although I did not find any problems with the other games, I did not feel inclined to test, and a cheating casino is a cheating casino, so if they are cheating here, they could be cheating anywhere else.

I would use the chi square test. These data give a chi square value of 19.95 with 2 degrees of freedom. The probability of a chi square value being at least this much is about 0.000047 or 1/21500. This could just be bad luck, but then we have the next sample.

Out of curiosity I tried this just now, using play money mode, doubling 1 line tens or better.

My results: 25 W, 65 L, 10 T. 100 tries total.

In my opinion, this is not a fair doubling game. Someone ought to contact Michael Shackleford (Wizard of Odds) and get his opinion.

Edit: Could other forum members give this a try too? The more trials there is, the more accurate the picture we get. Furthermore, we'll have more documented records. I did the above in less than 30 mins. Just use play money, and record your VP doubling results.

Chi square value 20.06, probability 1/22700. This is not looking good for English Harbour. If we combine the samples, the chi square value is 37.77, probability 1/159000000.

Actually my analysis was spot on, it was not basically spot on.

The binomial distribution is the distribution of n trials of a 2-valued event with probability p.

The result you have used is the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. The only reason to use the normal distribution for this is if it is inconvenient to use the binomial distribution (which it is not if Excel calculates it for you). The binomial distribution is exact.

As you say, it does not make much difference, but the binomial distribution is the better one to use here.

This is totally correct.

 

[Linus]

I suppose English Harbour has three options -

1.) Ignore it, and pretend nothing happened.

2.) Claim it was a software error.

3.) Claim the results here are bogus, and their games have always been fair.

Anyone wanna lay odds?

 

[Macgyver]

I suppose English Harbour has three options -

1.) Ignore it, and pretend nothing happened.

2.) Claim it was a software error.

3.) Claim the results here are bogus, and their games have always been fair.

Anyone wanna lay odds?

If I lay odds, win the bet and then double ... can I get my money back if I lose the double?

(insert lame attempt at humor here)