bryand
Beach Bum
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2008
- Location
- Just Across the Hudson River
Do our good friends across the pond really think the US economy is that bad?
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Do our good friends across the pond really think the US economy is that bad?
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It's not just them. The declines in many countries' stock markets coupled with the huge write-offs in the banking sector have people thinking that there is a serious credit crunch in the US. In the eyes of many, a lot people in the US (homeowners) use their home equities to fund their living and once this $ source is gone, their standard of living inevitably drops.
Whether the effects of subprime is spilling to other sectors is everybody's guess. However, at least in Asia, many think so because sentiment is not exactly growing stronger.
The Dow Jones is essentially unchanged, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite index are slightly down. Which index is up 20%?Clearly the US economy is in a slowdown. But the democrat party propaganda machine is grossly exagerating the situation. Some interesting factoids: 1) the US stock market (overall index) is up 20% over the last 12 months,
As defined by some economists, because you won't get all economists agree on anything. In any case, it says more about economists than about the US economy.2) the country is still at full employment (as defined by economists)
The delinquency rate is over 5%, and rising. In itself, this figure is meaningless, you need to compare it to other years. For most of the Clinton years, the delinquency rate was between 4% and 5%, usually closer to 4%, sometimes even below 4%. The last time it was this high was in the early 1980s. In the less savoury segments of the market the delinquency rates can be 15% or 20%. A 1% increase means hundreds of thousands of families are unable to pay their mortgages.and 3) presently over 95% of all US residential mortgages are being paid on time.
So we are in a Bull Market??,LOL,....Maybe you can provide the more broad based Nasdaq's,S&P's, and Russell's Index performance figures since the October 2007 highs and then translate it into economic dollars....hell, I do not get the market anyway even as lead lag indicator...ftr,I am not a Democrat generally!!Clearly the US economy is in a slowdown. But the democrat party propaganda machine is grossly exagerating the situation. Some interesting factoids: 1) the US stock market (overall index) is up 20% over the last 12 months, 2) the country is still at full employment (as defined by economists) and 3) presently over 95% of all US residential mortgages are being paid on time.
Clearly the US economy is in a slowdown. But the democrat party propaganda machine is grossly exagerating the situation. Some interesting factoids: 1) the US stock market (overall index) is up 20% over the last 12 months, 2) the country is still at full employment (as defined by economists) and 3) presently over 95% of all US residential mortgages are being paid on time.
though i respect your opinion, i'm not sure your statement would ease the minds of all the decent people i know who are struggling to pay their mortgages, paying more for food and gas, and not able to save any money for their children's futures. considering the value of the u.s. dollar and the issues of recession, i'm not exactly sure why any "democrat party propanganda" would even be necessary at this point. and without starting a political slugfest, i take it that this administration's portrayal of the war and the economy is truthful and straightforward? and that it is only being tarnishd again by the democrat party propaganda machine? just my opinion of course, but i've always loved a good dialogue.
The Dow Jones is essentially unchanged, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite index are slightly down. Which index is up 20%?
As defined by some economists, because you won't get all economists agree on anything. In any case, it says more about economists than about the US economy.
The delinquency rate is over 5%, and rising. In itself, this figure is meaningless, you need to compare it to other years. For most of the Clinton years, the delinquency rate was between 4% and 5%, usually closer to 4%, sometimes even below 4%. The last time it was this high was in the early 1980s. In the less savoury segments of the market the delinquency rates can be 15% or 20%. A 1% increase means hundreds of thousands of families are unable to pay their mortgages.
Is there any solution?
Well, a weak dollar is helping. I look at the euro at $1.53 and cheer - not for this European trip I'm planning to take after classes are done. But for manufacturing plants in the Midwest, it's a very good thing. Arguably the only good thing we have going for the U.S. economy now is the weak dollar and how that helps exports.
Lets talk about gambling.
It went up in the first two years and it is down by about 5% over the past year.An even better (and more broad) statistic is the 3-year NYSE composite index which is up 30% - a 10% average annual rise.
I am familiar with the economic theories of employment and the concept of NAIRU, but unfortunately it is impossible to measure. Furthermore, the 80000 non-farms jobs lost in March don't support your claim either.Let be more clear. Full employment is generally accepted among all economists as the greatest attainable structural employment. 100% employment is impossible to attain since some small percentage of the population will always be between jobs. The US remains in full employment.
A number like this in isolation is meaningless. If I say that 99.99999% of people did not get murdered today is it good or bad? There is a huge difference between 95% and 96% of people paying their mortgages on time.The 95% figure is very meaningful. First, it sheds light on the truth behind the sub-prime mortgage hysteria. By listening to the US network news one would believe half of all americans are in foreclosure. But the more amazing reason - at least for those of us working in the legal side of the mortgage industry - is the figure remains high in the face of unprecedented fraud among mortgage brokers, lenders and appraisers.
80,000 Jobs Lost, Worst Since 2003; Jobless Rate Spikes
Apr. 7, 2008 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --
Employers shed 80,000 jobs in March, the worst decline in five years, the Labor Department said Friday, the strongest sign the U.S. is in a recession.
The jobless rate jumped to 5.1% from 4.8% in February, the highest since September 2005.
Do you still feel everything is fine and all this stuff about the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual is just Democratic propaganda?Clearly the US economy is in a slowdown. But the democrat party propaganda machine is grossly exagerating the situation. Some interesting factoids: 1) the US stock market (overall index) is up 20% over the last 12 months, 2) the country is still at full employment (as defined by economists) and 3) presently over 95% of all US residential mortgages are being paid on time.
Do you still feel everything is fine and all this stuff about the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual is just Democratic propaganda?