Horse Racing & Tips Thread

[dave1888]

And race 6 bound to be competitive too...

 

[geordiecolin]

I'm not too taken by the racing today but here is my Irish bet. Good luck for today

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

9. A Step Too Far
6/1
27th Sep CURRAGH 14:30 5F HCAP 5f - Each Way
14:30 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Rule 4: 5p Deduction
Best odds

10. Equilove
4/1
27th Sep CURRAGH 15:05 1M HCAP 1m - Each Way
15:05 Today
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

4. Kastasa
11/5
27th Sep CURRAGH 16:50 2M STAKES 2m - Each Way
16:50 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

12. Lady Savanah
6/1
27th Sep CURRAGH 17:20 1M HCAP 1m - Each Way
17:20 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

 

[dave1888]

13:15 Chester
Silvestris
place bet or insurance bet(win if horse in top 2/3)

14:25 Chester
Set in Stone
EW or place bet.

15:35 Chester
Shawaamekh
E/W(4 places at Paddy Power)

Non runner, 3rd and 2nd not too bad today so far. Also had a close one at 80/1 with get boosting it ran just outside the places! And elzaamone I had to win and it placed in 3rd.

 

[dave1888]

Newcastle 18:15

We Still Believe

E/W or bet without favourite.

 

[geordiecolin]

Newcastle 18:15

We Still Believe

E/W or bet without favourite.

Yes I marked out We still believe too although its not included in my bets.
Here are mine today

LUCKY 15
(EACH WAY)
Amor Verdadero
5/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
15:45 Roscommon
15:45, Today
Best Odds Guaranteed
Baily Thunder
7/2
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
14:45 Roscommon
14:45, Today
Extra Place
Jazz Ranger
7/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
14:15 Roscommon
14:15, Today
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
Killultagh Bella
11/4
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
13:45 Roscommon

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

13. Flying Moon
13/2
28th Sep HAMILTON 14:30 HANDICAP 1m 0f 68y - Each Way
14:30 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

12. Card High
9/1
28th Sep HAMILTON 15:00 HANDICAP 1m 4f 15y - Each Way
15:00 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

4. Galileo Silver
6/1
28th Sep NEWTON ABBOT 15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 122y - Each Way
15:40 Today
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

14. Precisely
15/4
28th Sep BATH 17:20 HANDICAP 1m 2f 37y - Each Way
17:20 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

Good luck

 

[geordiecolin]

If only Galileo Star had came first instead of second in his race I would have been laughing however I did get a very nice return still

 

[dave1888]

Newcastle 18:15

We Still Believe

E/W or bet without favourite.

bitterly disappointing!

 

[colinsunderland]

1.00H A lay of Calidus Mirabilis is the best bet in this race. 6/4 is ridiculously short for this one, while the trainer has winners in this type of race, none of Amy Murphy's twenty-nine horses tried in first time blinkers have been winners. I would also question the horses stamina as he tends to fade in the latter part of the race. It's rare I lay horses, but will here, mainly in running, as I expect he will make the running and look like the winner3-4f out only to fade and get passed on the run in. I would expect to be able to lay at around 1.5. Obviously it will also depend on how the rest of the field are going as to how much and if I do lay it. I'm also not that keen on the second in the market, Sefton Warrior, so will do a small forecast on Asharann and Donald Llewellyn.

6.30K Eagle Creek, 6/1 4 places. Not sure why this isn't favourite. Was off for 2 years, ran at Ascot, finished 8th, which is understandable after being off for so long. At Chelsford last time, he was up in class and running over the wrong trip, with a poor draw. He chased a strong pace, and only folded at the end of a race, like a horse would who needed the run. There should be a strong pace today which he likes, over a C&D that he has ran well over in the past, on a reduced weight, has the champion jockey on board and a good draw. Will be amazed if this doesn't, at the very least, get a place, but expect it to win.

1.30H, Not the best price, but Absolute Jaffa should win this. Theres not really much in the race to beat, Mine's a Pint could be dangerous if the last run wasn't a one off and think he ideally needs further than this. General Bux could be a threat too, but hasn't ran since April 2019, and everytime previously he has had a break, has ran poorly, rarely finishing, being either pulled up or falling. The selection is around 13/8 at the moment and think thats value as I would have him at a shade odds on.

3.45H I won't be backing this at the current price, but if he runs true to form, The Distant Lady should be hard to beat. However, he does fall now and then and has been beaten at long odds on, so not for me at 2/1. If it drifts to say 3/1+ I will have a small bet on it.

4.20H. The absolute ton of money for Green Planet suggests he will win this easily. Was 9/1 in places last night, now best priced 2/1, and about 70% of the trading on Betfair has been on him. Trainers in decent form, and rarely has runners in NHF races.

3.55B Write It Down should have enough class to win this, although the distance is unknown, he should have the stamiina to cope with it. Jockey and trainer are both in good form, and tend to win when the horse is the favourite. I may do a tricast with Henry's Joy and Thomas Shelby in that order.

4.40N Red Derek seems a tad overpriced in this race, small EW on it.

Good luck today.

 

[geordiecolin]

I have a few of yours marked out but I didn't back them. Yet again I put my bets on too early in Ireland and chose a non runner
Here are mine for this afternoon. Good luck

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

10. Flirting Lesa
5/1
30th Sep PUNCHESTOWN 14:25 2M 5F HCAP CHASE 2m 4f 190yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

4. Give Him Time
9/2
30th Sep PUNCHESTOWN 15:00 2M 6F HCAP CHASE 2m 6f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places
V
4. Cardboard Gangster
4/1
30th Sep PUNCHESTOWN 16:10 3M HURDLE 3m - Each Way
16:10 30 September 2020
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

14. Paulas Prayer
11/2
30th Sep PUNCHESTOWN 16:45 2M 1/2F HCAP HURDLE 2m 100yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 4 Places

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

9. Reassurance
12/1
30th Sep BANGOR-ON-DEE 13:40 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 3f 123y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

5. Stonemadforspeed
7/1
30th Sep HUNTINGDON 15:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 3f 137y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Place

11. Packettotherafters
13/2
30th Sep BANGOR-ON-DEE 15:55 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 0f 5y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

4. Ferrobin
7/2
30th Sep BANGOR-ON-DEE 16:30 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 0f 145y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

 

[colinsunderland]

Well,, the day started well for me, getting both the short priced ones beaten as I suspected in the 1.00 then got progressively worse, Red Derek was unlucky, hit trouble and had to switch, only being beaten for third by a short head. Be in profit on the day if Eagle Creek wins though.

 

[geordiecolin]

Well,, the day started well for me, getting both the short priced ones beaten as I suspected in the 1.00 then got progressively worse, Red Derek was unlucky, hit trouble and had to switch, only being beaten for third by a short head. Be in profit on the day if Eagle Creek wins though.

I've taken Kings slipper in the 630 but good luck Col

 

[dave1888]

Damned if I do damned if I don't... And was just about in the running to win the itv 7 think the winner had ⁶ correct...

 

[geordiecolin]

Fingers crossed about none runners today in Ireland

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

8. Loughaneala Og
10/1
1st Oct CLONMEL 13:30 2M 4F HURDLE 2m 3f 160yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
2. Casamari Abbey
5/1
1st Oct CLONMEL 14:00 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 3f 160yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places

7. Shannon Fields
15/2
1st Oct CLONMEL 14:35 3M HCAP HURDLE 3m - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

1. Ciankyle
9/2
1st Oct CLONMEL 15:45 2M 2F HCAP CHASE 2m 2f 27yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

6. Trueba
9/2
1st Oct FAIRYHOUSE 14:50 6F STAKES 6f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

5. Mogwli
4/1
1st Oct FAIRYHOUSE 15:25 6F HCAP 6f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

4. Avarice
3/1
1st Oct FAIRYHOUSE 16:35 1M 2F STAKES 1m 2f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

8. Der Mc
6/1
1st Oct FAIRYHOUSE 18:10 1M 5 1/2F HCAP 1m 5f 110yds - Each Wa
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places

Good luck if your having a punt

 

[Kenji85]

Hi guys just a heads up and hope it isn't too late.

McNally is at it again in Gowran Park this time.

Easy Cash Dalex in the 3.10.


25/1 on bet 365 last night but price got pulled very quickly. It has plunged all day and now 9/4 best price with PaddyPower.

Looks like it's a good old fashioned punt too horse has figures of P/99PPP-

Being backed as if defeat is out of the question.

 

[geordiecolin]

Hi guys just a heads up and hope it isn't too late.

McNally is at it again in Gowran Park this time.

Easy Cash Dalex in the 3.10.


25/1 on bet 365 last night but price got pulled very quickly. It has plunged all day and now 9/4 best price with PaddyPower.

Looks like it's a good old fashioned punt too horse has figures of P/99PPP-

Being backed as if defeat is out of the question.

I looked at its form while placing my bets and I was scratching my head at its price given its form. Has it had a recent wind op?
I am also surprised to see Stad as 2nd fave in the Arc. I didn't think he had the speed for that race but given he is 2nd fave tells me that its not the best Arc ever. I really hope he wins


Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

4. Zinat
4/1
2nd Oct GOWRAN PARK 15:10 2M HCAP HURDLE 2m - Each Way
15:10 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

8. Rhythm Divine
11/2
2nd Oct GOWRAN PARK 15:45 2M HURDLE 2m - Each Way
15:45 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

7. Mandarin Monarch
5/1
2nd Oct GOWRAN PARK 16:20 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
16:20 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

6. Sargent Lightfoot
13/2
2nd Oct GOWRAN PARK 16:55 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
16:55 Today
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

9. Vorashann
10/3
2nd Oct FONTWELL 13:35 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 1f 162y - Each Way
Starting in 19 minutes
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

1. Imperial Presence
11/2
2nd Oct FONTWELL 14:10 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f 135y - Each Way
Starting in 54 minutes
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

3. Ever So Much
16/5
2nd Oct HEXHAM 16:40 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 15y - Each Way
16:40 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

4. My Ukulele
11/2
2nd Oct NEWCASTLE 17:20 HANDICAP 1m 2f 42y - Each Way
17:20 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Best odds

 

[Kenji85]

No wind op that I know of. But interestingly last two runs were at Ayr and the conspiracy theorist in me says he was sent over to keep another horse company more so than try to win.(both occasions a fellow local trainer had a runner on the card)



As for the Arc I wouldn't touch enable at the price but it's a poor renewal. Stradivarius winning may cause Frankie to pull the last of his hair out lol.

I may not bet at all but right now my play would be In Swoop at 10/1 each way.

 

[geordiecolin]

No wind op that I know of. But interestingly last two runs were at Ayr and the conspiracy theorist in me says he was sent over to keep another horse company more so than try to win.(both occasions a fellow local trainer had a runner on the card)



As for the Arc I wouldn't touch enable at the price but it's a poor renewal. Stradivarius winning may cause Frankie to pull the last of his hair out lol.

I may not bet at all but right now my play would be In Swoop at 10/1 each way.

I will be watching the gowran race closely and I'll be interested to see what the commentators have to say

 

[Kenji85]

Bizarre. drifted back out to 10/1 and nearer last then first. Something fishy there for sure.

 

[geordiecolin]

Bizarre. drifted back out to 10/1 and nearer last then first. Something fishy there for sure.

Maybe he cut a deal with some bookies that he stung so they could recoup some of it from sucker punters?

 

[Kenji85]

Maybe he cut a deal with some bookies that he stung so they could recoup some of it from sucker punters?

Its not beyond the realms of possibility.

Or he laid the shite out of it on betfair himself in an account under his cats name

 

[colinsunderland]

2.15Longchamp Manuela De Vega, will love the ground and has the form to win this. The obvious danger is Pista, but think he's destined for 2nd today. Around 4/1.

2.45N Peaceful, will like the ground, has the class to win this don't like the Gosden pair on really soft ground and Champs Elysees was flattered last time out I thought. Veracious was my original choice here, but the ground is most likely too soft for it now. Around 7/2.

2.19F Good News, will like the ground better than the 3 above him in the market, and on his day, has just as good form as anything else. The distance is a bit of unknown, but think the soft ground today will make the difference. 7/1

3.29F Assuming he's fit, then I think Hijack should win this. Has best form in the race, especially on soft, jockey and trainer are in good form, his rivals are nothing special, and don't see much that should trouble him, currently around 11/4.

Good luck today, especially with the ground being soft most places already with more rain forecast most the day!

 

[geordiecolin]

I left it as late as I could before placing my bets with so many nags dropping out. Still it should be an enjoyable days racing with probably a lot of big price winners.
Good luck today if your having a punt.Here are a few of my bets

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

8. Teed Up
7/2
3rd Oct TIPPERARY 13:15 1M 1F HCAP 1m 1f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

4. Laughifuwant
4/1
3rd Oct TIPPERARY 14:25 7 1/2F STAKES 7f 100yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

6. Soaring Monarch
5/1
3rd Oct TIPPERARY 15:00 7 1/2F HCAP 7f 100yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

11. Starting Monday
9/2
3rd Oct TIPPERARY 15:35 7 1/2F HCAP 7f 100yds - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

8. Pista
10/3
3rd Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 14:15 EVENT 1m 5f 202y - Each Way
14:15 Today
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
2. Kick Boxing
10/1
3rd Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 14:50 EVENT 0m 7f 209y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

9. Princess Zoe
11/4
3rd Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 16:00 EVENT 2m 3f 194y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
11. Eudaimonia
9/2
3rd Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 16:35 HANDICAP 1m 1f 207y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Place

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

7. In A Pinch
11/2
3rd Oct GOWRAN PARK 14:35 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

14. Crack On Corrie
9/2
3rd Oct GOWRAN PARK 15:45 2M 4F HCAP HURDLE 2m 4f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Place

15. Ballycastle Girl
10/1
3rd Oct GOWRAN PARK 16:20 3M HCAP HURDLE 3m - Each Way
Each Way: 1/4 Odds, 3 Places

8. Napoleon Blue
11/2
3rd Oct GOWRAN PARK 17:30 3M 1F HCAP CHASE 3m 1f - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

 

[dave1888]

Brunch- R4 Red Car win or EW

and also think Euchan Glen 2:30 Ascot in someones lucky 15 or Ew acca is worth a bet today...

 

[geordiecolin]

Brunch- R4 Red Car win or EW

and also think Euchan Glen 2:30 Ascot in someones lucky 15 or Ew acca is worth a bet today...

Ascot is abandoned Dave

 

[Slottery]

3.29F Assuming he's fit, then I think Hijack should win this. Has best form in the race, especially on soft, jockey and trainer are in good form, his rivals are nothing special, and don't see much that should trouble him, currently around 11/4.

Let him pay my beers today, got 4/1 matched from BF

edit: Could make 10% profit by trading out now or leave small free bet, favorite now, but let's wait it win and take it all

 

[Kenji85]

Heads up.

Aiden O Brien is pulling out all his runners in longchamp tomorrow for arc day. High likelihood it could effect more trainers from here or from GB as several trainers housed horses in stables with contaminated feed.

O'Brien withdrew one originally due to a positive test, the rest were negative. But I guess with the money that whole operation makes post racing in breeding etc a positive drugs text would cause serious damage to ballydoyle and coolmore so they've pulled every runner.

 

[colinsunderland]

ok, so the Arc, I can't have Enable at around evens, Gosden has said he won't like the ground (although not sure that is true myself), but true heavy ground does throw up some dodgy results. The two who I think should handle the ground, and are good enough to at least get placed are In Swoop and Persian King, currently around 8's and 14's respectively, 4 places. Will do a small EW on both and put Persian King in a Lucky 15 with the ones below, selected due to the ability to probably handle the ground and the draw.
3.50L Ambition 14/1 4 places
4.25L Air De Valse 12/1 (also like Archer's Dream in this but it's last run put me off backing it - no doubt it will win now).
4.55L Rubaiyat 33/1

Elsewhere, Sean Bowen seems to be riding well again, so going to do his three rides today, all which do, on paper, seem to have a decent chance.

1.40U Easy Bucks 11/2
3.46U Statuario 4/1
4.16U The Triple Pillar 10/1
and 1.25K Playa Blanca 5/1 to make up a lucky 15.

Good luck with your bets today

 

[geordiecolin]

I have gone for Strad in the Arc purely because I would love to see him win it. I was surprised that Obrien withdrew all of his horses because I was at the understanding that all traces of the dodgy feed would be out of their systems within 48-72 hours and that time has lapsed?
I managed to bag a non runner which will ensure I will get a little back at least

LUCKY 15
(EACH WAY)
Ardamir
5/1
Win or Each Way, 1/4 odds - places 1,2,3
14:08 Tipperary
Northern Emperor
11/2
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
14:38 Tipperary
Mickey Shea
4/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
15:08 Tipperary
Bitview Colin
5/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3

And

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way

6. Stradivarius
9/2
4th Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 15:05 EVENT 1m 3f 204y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
8. Tawkeel
7/2
4th Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 15:50 EVENT 1m 1f 207y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
V
10. Dark American
5/1
4th Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 17:25 HANDICAP 0m 6f 211y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
7. Caliste
4/1
4th Oct PARISLONGCHAMP 17:55 HANDICAP 0m 6f 211y - Each Way
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
Best odds

Good luck today

 

[geordiecolin]

ok, so the Arc, I can't have Enable at around evens, Gosden has said he won't like the ground (although not sure that is true myself), but true heavy ground does throw up some dodgy results. The two who I think should handle the ground, and are good enough to at least get placed are In Swoop and Persian King, currently around 8's and 14's respectively, 4 places. Will do a small EW on both and put Persian King in a Lucky 15 with the ones below, selected due to the ability to probably handle the ground and the draw.
3.50L Ambition 14/1 4 places
4.25L Air De Valse 12/1 (also like Archer's Dream in this but it's last run put me off backing it - no doubt it will win now).
4.55L Rubaiyat 33/1

Elsewhere, Sean Bowen seems to be riding well again, so going to do his three rides today, all which do, on paper, seem to have a decent chance.

1.40U Easy Bucks 11/2
3.46U Statuario 4/1
4.16U The Triple Pillar 10/1
and 1.25K Playa Blanca 5/1 to make up a lucky 15.

Good luck with your bets today

It looks like you got off to a flier Col?

 

[colinsunderland]

yep then died a death lol.
then stuck a tenner on spurs to win 6-1 @ 150-1, cashed out £295, a minute later they got a penalty, went to 6-1 - and thats why I don't usually cash out ffs lol

 

[colinsunderland]

 

[geordiecolin]

View attachment 142720

Brilliant result. I don't blame you for cashing out. It should have been a lot worse for Man U because they should have at least had another 2 sent off if not 3

 

[colinsunderland]

Well today's racing is poor, to say the least.

1.30P Bodacious Name. This race is awful, apart from Call My Bluff, nothing is in form at all, and Call My Bluff has gone up enough in the weights to suggest he might struggle today. Bodacious Name won thsi 2 years ago at 14/1, after 2 runs previously that season that were poor, just as has happened this time. He has form on soft/heavy ground and likes the distance. He tends to run his best races in the latter part of the year. Jockey and trainer are in decent form. Negatives are that when he won 2 years ago it was good/soft, and I think today is more likely to be on the heavy side of soft. The 2 races he has ran in this season were at the start of the year, whereas last time were in the previous month, so there will be question marks about his fitness. I imagine he will be held up and try to start making ground 4f out, and then try to pass the leaders in the last furlong. Is currently 20/1 and could get a place, if not win.

Tidal Point is another I like in the race, currently 40/1. He ran well last year in much better races than this, finishing 2nd in one, finishing fast, on heavy ground, only beaten half a length by a hot favourite, who has won 6 of his 11 races in the past 2 seasons, most of them better than this. Tidal Point hasn't ran on soft/heavy since, and it could see an improvement from him.

Of the shorter priced ones, I would go with Nordano who has decent form, on this type of ground, in much much better races. I think 2/1 is too short though considering he hasn't won a flat race.

I'll be doing a small EW bet on both the big prices, a small FC on them and a small reverse tricast on all three.

Good luck if you manage to find anything to back today

 

[colinsunderland]

That went close to what I thought it might. Bodacious Name sat out the back, started to make headway about 5 out, was in about 3rd 3 out, then the lack of fitness kicked in and he dropped out. If he gets entered anywhere over the next few weeks, on the same ground, and 2m+ then I think he will be much closer with todays run under his belt.

Tidal Point got backed into 20/1 at one point, finishing 2nd at 25/1, a long way clear of the third. Call My Bluff did very well under the extra weight and imagine he has another race or two in him on the basis of that display.

 

[colinsunderland]

Fast spin should win the 4.45 this evening, has the form to do so and don't think James Doyle has gone for one ride without it being expected to win. 5/2

The favourite should win the first,

 

[colinsunderland]

No bets at the afternoon meetings but

4.50L Dutch Story Hedging. Quite a bit of money for these two, especially the latter
3.30C Wots The Wifi Code. Loads of money for this one, and no idea why as looking at it, it shouldn't get close to winning, it has started to drift slightly now though

If I'm near a bookies will probably do a tenner double on them just in case.

Others I think should do ok

4.10L Miaella
5.20S Brenner Pass
6.50S Mukha Magic EW
7.20S Mackelly (amazed this isn't long odds on)
8.20S Capla Cubiste

Good luck today

 

[colinsunderland]

5.05L Peat Moss. Trainer has a 25% strike rate with 3yo's in handicap hurdles, increasing to 50% last year. Peat Moss needs to come off a strong pace and the slight doubt about this afternoon is if he will get it, there are a couple of front runners in the field so hopefully it's fast enough for him to come through at the end and win. Best priced 4/1 with 4 places, will be amazed if he doesn't finish in the first 4. I'm going to do a small EW on him at a bookies, but going to back him in running on Betfair as I think he will drift mid race, then shorten towards the end, giving the chance to lay off if required.

2.00N Myseven. Stable is in brilliant form and so is the horse. Be surprised if he doesn't beat Viola, although there are a few in the race that could win.

3.10N Think Snow Ocean should complete the 4 timer here, with Eagle Court being the main danger.

 

[Gaz237]

5.05L Peat Moss. Trainer has a 25% strike rate with 3yo's in handicap hurdles, increasing to 50% last year. Peat Moss needs to come off a strong pace and the slight doubt about this afternoon is if he will get it, there are a couple of front runners in the field so hopefully it's fast enough for him to come through at the end and win. Best priced 4/1 with 4 places, will be amazed if he doesn't finish in the first 4. I'm going to do a small EW on him at a bookies, but going to back him in running on Betfair as I think he will drift mid race, then shorten towards the end, giving the chance to lay off if required.

3.10N Think Snow Ocean should complete the 4 timer here, with Eagle Court being the main danger.

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Best odds

Stake
£10.00
Potential Returns
£60.00

Thats my one in that race

 

[Gaz237]

my missed the start

 

[colinsunderland]

my missed the start

mine forgot the order they were supposed to finish

 

[dave1888]

on 2 week break from all gambling but i can still post horsey ideas

First Race Ayr- Kats Bob
either outright or bet without favourite.

Second Race Ayr- Ayr Poet
outright

Third Race Ayr- Flying Moon
EW

Race 1 Exeter- Don Juan Du Gouet
Bet without favourite or outright

Race 2 Exeter- Northern Poet
insurance bet or outright

 

[dave1888]

on 2 week break from all gambling but i can still post horsey ideas

First Race Ayr- Kats Bob
either outright or bet without favourite.

Second Race Ayr- Ayr Poet
outright

Third Race Ayr- Flying Moon
EW

Race 1 Exeter- Don Juan Du Gouet
Bet without favourite or outright

Race 2 Exeter- Northern Poet
insurance bet or outright

3 out of 5 correct. By insure bet I meant in the 3 places.

 

[dave1888]

Have you guys saw the standard of horses in the 16:10 Newmarket tomorrow virtually impossible to predict who will win it! If I was held at gunpoint...I'd say Naraawy. you see still can't decide LOL! @colinsunderland @geordiecolin @Kenji85

 

[Slottery]

14:05, York: Ouzo 12or11/1 atm

And for Dave, 16:10 Newmarket: Kingbrook, of course

 

[Slottery]

14:05, York: Ouzo 12or11/1 atm

And for Dave, 16:10 Newmarket: Kingbrook, of course

And this donkey actually managed to win, probably time to start beer Friday then

edit: wtf they're doing there, not confirmed and BF market still open, this odds to win 1.14 atm and next one over 8 so don't think there's big chance to take this off from me (except my exceptional good luck... wouldn't be happy for only place now like would been before race).

Weird, think haven't seen before BF market open this long after race finished...

 

[colinsunderland]

In the 4.10 I'll say Strait Of Hormuz

 

[Kenji85]

And this donkey actually managed to win, probably time to start beer Friday then

edit: wtf they're doing there, not confirmed and BF market still open, this odds to win 1.14 atm and next one over 8 so don't think there's big chance to take this off from me (except my exceptional good luck... wouldn't be happy for only place now like would been before race).

Weird, think haven't seen before BF market open this long after race finished...

View attachment 142903

Happens the odd time I think when there's a stewards enquiry

 

[colinsunderland]

OK, been busy today, but couple from me

5.25C Red River 8/1
4.10N Strait Of Hormuz 12/1 (5 places)
4.55C Crosspark 16/1 4 places (unibet)

Good luck if you're having a bet

 

[Slottery]

14:05, York: Ouzo 12or11/1 atm

And for Dave, 16:10 Newmarket: Kingbrook, of course

Have to be happy for 2/2 winners today, first one 12/1 and second 20/1, now better start drinking and stop betting for a while ....

 

[colinsunderland]

OK, been busy today, but couple from me

5.25C Red River 8/1
4.10N Strait Of Hormuz 12/1 (5 places)
4.55C Crosspark 16/1 4 places (unibet)

Good luck if you're having a bet

Crosspark was a bit of a kick in the teeth, beaten a nose, and my main bet of the day. Frank Spencer's ride on Strait of Hormuz was terrible, whoever thought dropping him out the back on a day when every winner was ridden from the front, or close up, was an idiot. I knew in the first furlong it wouldn't win. Red River was backed into 4/1 and got placed.

2.55N I would be surprised if Thunder Moon doesn't win this. Currently best priced 11/4, he has been very impressive in his two races to date. Wembley met trouble in a race he was beaten by Thunder Moon, and was finishing like a train, so would have him as the danger/FC selection.

3.10Y Roulston Scar, likes York, likes soft, his Nottingham win last time reads like it was a warm up for this race, already been backed from 14's into 8's, worth an EW bet 5 places most firms, 6 with Skybet, 7 with Hills. In the same race, the money for Tranchee looks significant, and that alone would mark him as the danger, he has the form to win too.

2.35Y Nicholas T is back over his best trip. and could win this on his best form. Not overly confident about it but 33/1 4 places is too big, I have it as around a 12/1 shot.

4.32C The Bay Birch is favourite and it's easy to see why, won this last year, 8lb lower today, and has had a prep race recently. Clearly has been set up for this race. However, I think better value is Marracudja, currently 33/1 4 places, if his form with Defi Du Seuil and Un De Sceaux – when he also bled from the nose - is real form, then he should win this. The ground was heavy then though, which could make the form unreliable, but he also had the 165-rated Janika well behind and the 153 Capeland miles back yet he's still on just 149. Both jockey and trainer are also in good form, and think it has an excellent chance of being placed. If I were a bookie, then I wouldn't want to lay it at much over 8/1, 33/1 is massive value.

In the Cesarewitch Vis A Vis might be worth a small EW bet, currently 33/1 7 places with PP or 8 places with Skybet.

Another couple of thoughts on Chepstow

1.40 don't like the odds on favourite here. The race he came second in hasn't worked out very well, and it's obvious he's priced up based on the connections rather than ability, would be happy to place lay it on Betfair at the current 1.15. Hector De Sivola was clearly expected to do better on his debut, when he was odds on and ran 5th. Will give him a go today.

2.12 Stimulating Song should be good enough to get at least a place here.

2.47 Ballyoptic could quite easily win this, if he can handle the weight. If I was playing on Betfair today, would place lay Secret Investor, don't think he will like this race at all.

3.57 Really decent looking race on paper, and not one I'll be having a bet in, but if pushed would pick Sir Psycho after his 5th in the Triumph.

Good luck today.