Golden Goose Winner Screenshots

[Simmo!]

and you say they are weighting in real time: You think they are weighting the animated reels differently according to past play? Or are they just changing the weights randomly? And why would they bother? If true, there is no way in the world that that is fair or random: a machine that changes the odds on you constantly?

Hi J,

I didn't "say" that, i said i "think" that Its just a hunch.

Randomness - depends on what you term random. If a casino says for every 100 people that come thru our doors, we'll make one rich at random, do you care how? The fact a slot decides how to deliver its wins will ultimately be based on its overall "average payout" setting. If its 95%, its still randomly giving the wins to someone at random.

Anyway, to be honest J (and not meaning to sound dismissive), its a whole maths debate based on a hunch that we've had here before and its all down to opinion. I'll continue to go on my "hunches" for now How others play it is entirely up to them. All i can say is that 7 times out of 10, i can spot a decent win coming a mile off, as i think Spear probably can too

Cheers

Simmo!

 

[spearmaster]

Simmo's definition of weighting ought to look something like this:

Let's assume for sake of ease that there are 3 symbols on each reel, and in the same order (on a three reel machine).

Reels 1 and 2 are evenly weighted - which means each symbol has a 1 in 3 chance of appearing during the course of a single spin.

Reel 3 is weighted 10%/40%/50% which means Symbol 1 has only a 10% chance of appearing during the course of a spin.

Thus, for a Symbol 1 to appear on each reel, the chances are 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/10 - or about 1 in 90 spins. Symbol 2 would be 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/2.5 - or once in 22.5 spins, and Symbol 3 would be 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/2 - or once in 18 spins. All other combinations would be losers if we further assume that you must match three symbols in order to receive a payout.

This is a standard method of weighting used by all video slot machines - though naturally not by mechanical machines unless there is a computer chip controlling the stop position on each reel (also the norm).

The machine, however, is still considered random, because despite the weighting as described above, the RNG still generates a random number which is in no way affected by any external mechanism.

Does this mean slots are rigged? Not exactly, but for all intents and purposes, yes. A machine with a 98% payback will be designed so that the weighting will return 98% of the amount it takes in over time - whether this be in the form of a single cherry paying 2, 2 cherries paying 5, and 3 of a kind paying various amounts, or in the form as described above - no payouts unless you hit three of the same symbol. Or even the ones where all blank positions pay you 2 (and believe it or not the blanks are weighted as well).

Now - getting back to the streakiness - you can take my description above, and then add a roller coaster (sine wave) to it. Basically, this means that the weightings change with every spin of the slots. But the net result will still approach the theoretical payback because a sine wave has two equal phases. If the ('scuse my lack of knowledge of mathematical terms) wave has a long sweeping downward curve, it will have an equivalent long sweeping upward curve. The only thing that can be varied with the sine wave is the cycle during which both phases must be completed.

Hence my post way earlier in this thread - a higher frequency of wins will probably indicate which side of the curve you are currently on - and naturally, the more frequent the wins the higher the likelihood of hitting a bigger win.

There is probably a third variable with regards to progressive jackpots - imagine the value of a jackpot serving as a variable - the higher it gets, the higher the likelihood of it being hit. The question is, is this variable modified by a fixed or variable "weight"? If fixed, a casino could theoretically set this weight very low so as to slowly increase the likelihood of the jackpot being hit, meaning a better chance of a high jackpot. Or they could make this weight very high, meaning more frequent jackpots.

Can this be used to your advantage? *MAYBE*. You will never know for sure which part of the wave you are in, and you will never know what the length of the cycle is. You can, perhaps, notice an increase in frequency, and raise your bet hoping that you're in the middle of a long cycle, and on the positive side of it. Or you could play faster if you are not using autoplay.

I am not a slot machine designer nor a mathematical expert - and thus what I am pointing out above must be taken with a grain of salt - but to the best of what I have learned up to now, I strongly suspect my explanation is more or less correct.

 

[Simmo!]

What Spear said + approx. $10,000 profit (playing at 1c/2c) in 2 weeks

 

[jamiester]

replies...

Randomness - depends on what you term random. If a casino says for every 100 people that come thru our doors, we'll make one rich at random, do you care how? The fact a slot decides how to deliver its wins will ultimately be based on its overall "average payout" setting. If its 95%, its still randomly giving the wins to someone at random.

When I play a slot, I expect to have the exact same odds of hitting all combos on all spins. The RNG regime is not supposed to change at all. If it was, casinos could loosen or tighten up the machines at will. This is not fair. A machine that pays at .75 half the time and 1.15 half the time is a .95 payback machine, but not a fair one, certainly not one that I would play! Each event should be entirely independant and the results should be dictated by a constant RNG regime. IF the wheels are weighted, the weighting should be constant and could easily be determined. Changing weights or RNG regimes are not OK.

The machine, however, is still considered random, because despite the weighting as described above, the RNG still generates a random number which is in no way affected by any external mechanism.

Now - getting back to the streakiness - you can take my description above, and then add a roller coaster (sine wave) to it. Basically, this means that the weightings change with every spin of the slots. But the net result will still approach the theoretical payback because a sine wave has two equal phases. If the ('scuse my lack of knowledge of mathematical terms) wave has a long sweeping downward curve, it will have an equivalent long sweeping upward curve. The only thing that can be varied with the sine wave is the cycle during which both phases must be completed.

Hence my post way earlier in this thread - a higher frequency of wins will probably indicate which side of the curve you are currently on - and naturally, the more frequent the wins the higher the likelihood of hitting a bigger win.

There is probably a third variable with regards to progressive jackpots - imagine the value of a jackpot serving as a variable - the higher it gets, the higher the likelihood of it being hit. The question is, is this variable modified by a fixed or variable "weight"? If fixed, a casino could theoretically set this weight very low so as to slowly increase the likelihood of the jackpot being hit, meaning a better chance of a high jackpot. Or they could make this weight very high, meaning more frequent jackpots.

Can this be used to your advantage? *MAYBE*. You will never know for sure which part of the wave you are in, and you will never know what the length of the cycle is. You can, perhaps, notice an increase in frequency, and raise your bet hoping that you're in the middle of a long cycle, and on the positive side of it. Or you could play faster if you are not using autoplay.

First, I understand weighting. But video slots don't need to weight their symbols because their reels aren't physical. They can simply display the virtual reels (the virtual reel is the physical (or in this case animated) reel multiplied by the weighting of each position)). I am not saying some video slots don't use weighting, only that is unnecessary. For example, in Aceclub's Predator, the first reel has 31 postions, the 2nd has 33, the 3rd 33, the 4th 47 and the 5th 48. On each of these of reels many symbols are repeated in multiple positions, so they are in effect weighted, but each position 1 thru 31 (or 33 or 48) should have an equal chance of occurring.

I have never said that weighting affects randomness. Unless the weighting changes.

I think this sine wave is a figment of your imagination. Even if there was such a pattern that was discernable, it would cycle many many time a second. Do you have any source material for this sine wave theory? Are you questioning the very nature of randomness? I don't get where this is coming from.
Certainly what you say about the weighting changing every spin: this cannot be true: a given range of random numbers is programmed to generate a given result. This range cannot change from spin to spin. The RN regime should be constant. Unless you are trying to say that the EFFECT is that the weighting changes because of cycles in the generation of the RNs themselves. Again even if this is true, the cycles happen so fast that you could not play to them.

The amount of the jackpot should NEVER affect the probability of it being hit. Not in a fair game anyway. I am not saying casinos don't do this, only that if they do, they are using unfair games.

I can spot a big win a mile off as well: that's usually how far away it is

 

[spearmaster]

Let me put it this way.

My imagination is quite vivid. But I am convinced of my theory and whether you believe it or not is up to you - but you are getting carried away with your perfect world of randomness, because video slots are not 100% free-wheeling, random machines and will never be.

If you would like to rebutt in the future, perhaps you should come up with some material to show me that I am wrong, rather than asking me to support a "theory" that I have proposed and already said that said theory should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Simmo!]

I can spot a big win a mile off as well: that's usually how far away it is

No offense but this whole "what constitutes random" debate can never be resolved as its just opinion, like mine and Spears Goose theories. Just opinion

 

[jamiester]

Let me put it this way.

My imagination is quite vivid. But I am convinced of my theory and whether you believe it or not is up to you - but you are getting carried away with your perfect world of randomness, because video slots are not 100% free-wheeling, random machines and will never be.

If you would like to rebutt in the future, perhaps you should come up with some material to show me that I am wrong, rather than asking me to support a "theory" that I have proposed and already said that said theory should be taken with a grain of salt.

I'll be the first to admit we all need myths to live by I am just trying to figure out if there is any rational basis for what you are saying, or, really, even, sometimes, what you are saying in the first place. Forgive me if that seems rude. I am trying to learn about slots, too, but I am certainly going to grill anybody I choose to learn from to see if from where they are speaking. I also notice that there tends to be lots of "magical" thinking about slots and all sorts of unsupported theories that can perpetuate ignorance and ultimately cause new and unsophistated players to lose money believing that it is possible to exercise a degree of control that is (probably) not possible. If somebody is posting theories about non-random behavior of slots, I would hope that they would be willing to back it up.
I will start a thread about one of the Aceclub slots, the animated (virtual) reels of which I have mapped out. Perhaps you will see the approach I am taking in analyzing slots. You can respond to me there if you think there is something I am missing.
And, yes, Slots results should exist in "a perfect world of randomness". Ask any casino manager, they will tell you the same. They wouldn't be lying now would they?

 

[jamiester]

I am sorry, too, Simmo!,

No offense but this whole "what constitutes random" debate can never be resolved as its just opinion, like mine and Spears Goose theories. Just opinion

But this simply is NOT true. Randomness can most certainly be tested in any number of scientific ways. What is random is not opinion. Now, I will agree, however, that casinos can employ methods (not showing the actual reels in animation, using very subtle tweaking noticable only over many thousands of events) to make it next to impossible to detect deviations from randomness and furthermore that there is a grey area between random and nonrandom behavior about which we might not be able to draw conclusions, but neither of these facts relegate the assessing of random or nonrandom behavior to the realm of "opinion".

 

[spearmaster]

Let me point to you a page by my friend the Wizard of Odds, from whom at least some of my information was obtained.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

While his information refers to slots in land-based casinos, I will say with a reasonable amount of certainty that at least one online manufacturer's slots follow the descriptions that you will see here.

The Wizard is far more expert than I ever will be in any form of mathematical probability or gambling-related information, most certainly including slots (which he repeatedly tells me not to play except for a very few variations).

 

[jamiester]

yes, I got a lot of my info from him to

Let me point to you a page by my friend the Wizard of Odds, from whom at least some of my information was obtained.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

While his information refers to slots in land-based casinos, I will say with a reasonable amount of certainty that at least one online manufacturer's slots follow the descriptions that you will see here.

The Wizard is far more expert than I ever will be in any form of mathematical probability or gambling-related information, most certainly including slots (which he repeatedly tells me not to play except for a very few variations).

And here is a quote from the very page you linked that helped form the basis of my approach to analyzing multipayline video slots:

"Multi-line slots, both with physical as well as video display reels usually do not have weighted reels. Otherwise the process is the same as above. In video display slots representations of actual reels are used, which can be quite large, 60 symbols or more."

In other words, the animated reels are the virtual reels.

 

[Simmo!]

Getting back on topic...

I sussed today that on Totem, you can actually get 1,300,000 coins in one hit. And there's two combinations for it too. Basically on Reel 3, the WILD symbol is above the jackpot Eagle symbol. 5 x WILD pays 12,000 and 5 x Eagle pays 5,000 (doubled with a WILD). So assume you get 6x in the Free Spins and land:

Wild middle of Reel 1
Wild middle of Reel 2
Wild Top of Reel 3 (Eagle thus middle of Reel 3)
Wild middle of Reel 4
Wild middle or Reel 5

Playing max coins (10) at $0.01 ($2.50 a spin) , you'd get 120,000 for the 5 Wilds + 100,000 for the 5 Eagles (4 wilds + 1 eagle). Multiply by x6 and you have 1,320,000 coins - or $13,200 dollars at $0.01

If you move Reels 1 & 5 up one and Reel 3 down one in the example above, you get the same result.

Incidentally, a story: I hit 50 spins at 1x today. Being a slow laborious feature to watch, i went for a ciggie while it span them out, and came back to 116,000 coins ($1160) - dunno what fell in tho Also had a 19,000 hit while Free Spinning at 5x ($950)

 

[Webzcas]

Is your winning streak ever going to stop Simmo!!??

 

[Simmo!]

Is your winning streak ever going to stop Simmo!!??

Yeah it took about $2k back before that

 

[Chill]

Well Simmo, i was so close to your calculation, not shure if it should go in screenshots that suck or not

 

[Chill]

One more for the public, a nice free spin run

PS! I did say I was done with GG forever, but I decided to give it a go with $100, glad I did

 

[irebal]

Have any of you managed to get the 50 spins at 3x yet? I've had 50 spins quite a few times, but all I can manage for the multiplier is 1x. I would just like to hear that it can be done

 

[irebal]

Another 1600...i'm up a ton this month on the goose...all at 32red
I keep waiting for it to go cold.

Now if i just could get the dang 50 spins at 3x

 

[Bruce Hamilton]

Something tells me I should join 32Red and play the goose.

 

[tim5ny]

Have any of you managed to get the 50 spins at 3x yet? I've had 50 spins quite a few times, but all I can manage for the multiplier is 1x. I would just like to hear that it can be done

Had the 50 spins lots of times, but only at 1X multiplier only. I have never had a decent turnout with the fifty spins. My best was 10 spins@ 3X for over $600.00 on a $1.00 bet.

 

[tim5ny]

Another 1600...i'm up a ton this month on the goose...all at 32red
I keep waiting for it to go cold.

Now if i just could get the dang 50 spins at 3x

One thing I've noticed about these Goose games is that the big hits will come if your bankroll can survive the dry periods.. You need one hell of a bankroll to survive on $5.00/spin Irebal. After I hit the 5 scatters today on Totem @ $1.00 wager, I had close to $400.00, so I boosted the bet to $2.50/spin, and it disappeared in no time. That's what happens to me on this game every time. I hit a nice one or two on small bets, and then I go to $2.50/spin, and several hundred dollars just disappears in a flash.

 

[vgyhnji]

Simmo

On entering Spin Palace casino the message board there tells of a player having recently won a $10K jackpot at GG Totem Treasure.

Do you know what combination/coinage etc this jackpot might refer to?

 

[Simmo!]

Simmo

On entering Spin Palace casino the message board there tells of a player having recently won a $10K jackpot at GG Totem Treasure.

Do you know what combination/coinage etc this jackpot might refer to?

If its *exactly* 10k then its likely to be 5 eagles with a wild at 10c max coins ($25 a spin) or the same combo in Free Spins at 5x playing 2c max coins ($5) a spins IMHO.

 

[Chill]

wow, $500 on an 80 cent bet

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)

 

[why0why]

Is it just me, or do the GG slots seem to be playing MUCH tighter than they were? I would be interested to hear feedback from others. I know there are streaks, but I can't hit anything on these for the last week or so. Simmo??? How's it going for you?

 

[spearmaster]

Nice hit Chill! I keep getting close but no dice - and I always play max bet

why0why, it has definitely seemed a bit tighter the last week, I haven't had any of those 80K hits, nor anything of any real size since the last posts I made, but the last day or two it seems to have loosened up a bit - I hit 50 spins (at 1x) three times and cashed out a bit after getting my butt kicked by GG and Jungle Jim.