General Election 2024 Thread

[pinnit2014]

Probably distilling it a bit too simply, but the French results will have sent a shockwave through centrist parties across Europe: an outward rejection of it (the new left wing coalition polls better) - think the blueprint, unfortunately some may say, is going further to the right is what will win you elections.

 

[Webzcas]

What an absolute this is

Thank the Lord Rees Mogg for VPN's ;-)

Odds on still for Reform to get 7 or more seats. My prediction stands, 20% vote share and likely north of 10 seats.

 

[Webzcas]

Good watch during the last few hours of the Purdah period on TV.

 

[mcgameboy]

View attachment 198588

Unless of course all the pollsters and media get proven wrong and the country is actually "Ready 4 Rishi"

Are you Ready for Rishi
To deliver your dishi
Such as Filet O Fishi?
Nah, cuz it tastes like Pishi

1/10 honeyjars. Poor effort. I'll get my coat...

 

[jasonuk]

Probably distilling it a bit too simply, but the French results will have sent a shockwave through centrist parties across Europe: an outward rejection of it (the new left wing coalition polls better) - think the blueprint, unfortunately some may say, is going further to the right is what will win you elections.

Given the disaster of the past decade, it's clear we need a new direction. People are getting desperate enough (as in extreme poverty) that they'll consider anything at this point - and if the right and far-right are telling them what they want to hear (even if they have no meaningful plan), with the appropriate media push it will resonate with people.

Much like Brexit - they won't get what they voted for because they can't deliver it - and the rest of us will be left picking up the pieces.

It's somewhat frustrating we had a chance at a change of direction in 2016 (US) and 2017 (UK) but the media smears put paid to both efforts. I'm not going to say things would have been perfect, but coming from a better starting point has to mean something - and if we're going to piss a trillion pounds up the wall (UK national debt increase from 2010 to 2024), maybe we could have had something to show for it?

--
As discussed above, Reform 7+ seats now 1.95 on the exchanges.

 

[mcgameboy]

I wonder if Chops is just resting his fingers or is he too busy buying all the champagne on the IOM?

Didn't think he would be this quiet on what is going to be the third greatest day of his life....

 

[jasonuk]

I wonder if Chops is just resting his fingers or is he too busy buying all the champagne on the IOM?

Didn't think he would be this quiet on what is going to be the third greatest day of his life....

Perhaps ask him after Islington North has declared. The first stage is getting rid of the Tories, the second stage would be putting the Labour back into the Labour party - New Labour is going to be same shit, different tie... but at least the party as a whole (rather than the PLP) can pull in a better direction.

 

[dunover]

I wonder if Chops is just resting his fingers or is he too busy buying all the champagne on the IOM?

Didn't think he would be this quiet on what is going to be the third greatest day of his life....

Nah, having a pre-results night pint in his local:

 

[ChopleyIOM]

I'm not even watching the coverage, the results don't start to come through in earnest until around 3-4am, prior to that point it's mostly just flapping jaws, and I'm out at the pub tomorrow (it's a bank holiday here tomorrow for Tynwald Day), so staying up all night isn't really an option.

As such I'll go to bed as usual, witness the DAWN OF A NEW AGE * tomorrow morning, and then bugger off to the pub around lunchtime, armed with plenty of cash for the machines when the gambling bug descends (usually around the 5-6 pint mark). We're going to be out in Peel again, and because I'm stupid, I'm going to take £400 in cash with me to facilitate BIG £2 SPINS. What can possibly go wrong?

Ideally I'll hit another £300 like I did on Senor Burrito last time, after three spins on £2 (Recent video on my channel for that one.)

* I don't even think Labour are going to be that great. They'll be better than the Tories, more competent, less corrupt, they'll make some stuff better, but their policy agenda isn't nearly radical enough to make the fundamental changes that are needed. I'm not even convinced on the economy side of things, since Starmer has explicitly ruled out SM/CU in the last couple of days, which is what we really need.

 

[mcgameboy]

Looks like it has an eerily similar lighting scheme to that seen in David Lammy's male cervix creation lab....

 

[dunover]

Looks like SNP and Tories wiped out and Dave's won his Reform bet!

 

[DreamRJ]

I was hoping that the tories would win a lot less seats than what the Exit Poll is suggesting. Hopefully they will we shall see. Got my popcorn ready to go for a fun entertaining night ahead

 

[Webzcas]

Exit poll

I think it’s wrong. Can see Reform getting 20 seats…

 

[Webzcas]

Alas odds got too short so didn’t put it on. But wow. SNP 10 seats

 

[jasonuk]

I guess we'll be swapping the Scottish question for the Irish question for the next few years then...

 

[dealer wins]

Welcome to 5 years of woke, trans bollocks, and being robbed blind if you work, save or own anything.

And full steam ahead with the climate bollocks and agenda 2030.

Buckle up UK people, its going to get bad, really bad!

 

[DreamRJ]

Exit poll

I think it’s wrong. Can see Reform getting 20 seats…

I agree I think labour will get around 430 or 440 seats, ,reform 20 and cons below 100 and lib dems a few extra maybe nearly 70. But SNP is also pretty much wiped out winning only 10 that might be wrong as well, because most predictions was saying between 15 to 25 for SNP over the last few weeks. So Labour has gained massively in Scotland. Took back what they lost since SNP won all Labours seats.

 

[megadam]

Welcome to 5 years of woke, trans bollocks, and being robbed blind if you work, save or own anything.

And full steam ahead with the climate bollocks and agenda 2030.

Buckle up UK people, its going to get bad, really bad!

Pardon me but where in the UK have you been living for the past 14 years when it hasn't been really really bad? Tax burden at it's highest point, living standards at the lowest and all of the chums budding together to continue to rob the public purse (Mone and Co). Sure, a lot of the MPs have provided a lot of comedic value up until the point you're realizing they are making political decisions.

I've always voted Conservative. This is the first election where I voted Labour. The Conservatives completely and utterly deserve this annihilation and to actually get some candidates that actually have some integrity.

 

[Webzcas]

Yeah Scotland has some very close seats. But if it is close to 10 for the separatists, then that has made my night

 

[dealer wins]

Pardon me but where in the UK have you been living for the past 14 years when it hasn't been really really bad? Tax burden at it's highest point, living standards at the lowest and all of the chums budding together to continue to rob the public purse (Mone and Co). Sure, a lot of the MPs have provided a lot of comedic value up until the point you're realizing they are making political decisions.

I've always voted Conservative. This is the first election where I voted Labour. The Conservatives completely and utterly deserve this annihilation and to actually get some candidates that actually have some integrity.

Im a former life long Tory voter, but gave my vote to reform.

I can never vote Tory again (Or Labour) as they both voted for me to be a second class citizen in my country of birth because of my medical choices. That alone breached the law on Informed Consent, as well as many international laws and treaties.

 

[DreamRJ]

Can I say this though, I wonder if they have played down the scale of the tory wipeout in the exit poll by giving them more seats on purpose to make it look better for them than it is on the ground or as the results come in.

I really do believe the tories will lose more seats than what the exit poll is predicting so I do not think that exit poll is accurate at all after following the whole election campaign closely in most of the major constituencies.

Anyway I suppose we will find out in the next 7 or 8 hours.

OR people lied when they got asked how they voted when they left the polling stations to make the exit poll look better OR did shy tories or tory voters just think I still have to vote tory when they got to the voting booth and had a last minute change of heart/mind?

 

[amandajm]

Be nice to see the back of the Tories.

If early results show Labour leave voters who lent the Tories their vote, go Reform, as a born and bred Labour (dad said), my thought is Starmer will need to take on board what Farage says, by tomorrow morning, or next time up who knows...

All this calling him far right, waffle, is tiresome anyway tbh. The guy ain't calling for an ethnostate or forced repatriation of the Windrush folk.

 

[mack341]

According to the results so far, labour have only got 7 million votes to the Tories 5, reform have gained 3 million, that's without any real party structure (£ millions spent on adverts etc) and few household names.

Obviously, lab have a hefty seat majority but old Nige will keep them on their toes.

 

[pinnit2014]

I guess we'll be swapping the Scottish question for the Irish question for the next few years then...

It'll be fraught with greater issues but yes, with SF's rise North and South there will come a time when something will be instigated - probably not in my lifetime mind you. Think there's something in the Good Friday Agreement contains a border poll proviso but is relatively high level: if it appears likely that....a majority would....'

 

[pinnit2014]

Yeah Scotland has some very close seats. But if it is close to 10 for the separatists, then that has made my night

Another 5/10 years to a 'generation' so just biding our time to escape from Westmonster

 

[sufferinsilence]

According to the results so far, labour have only got 7 million votes to the Tories 5, reform have gained 3 million, that's without any real party structure (£ millions spent on adverts etc) and few household names.

Obviously, lab have a hefty seat majority but old Nige will keep them on their toes.

The UK's election system is even worse than the US. And that's putting it lightly

 

[pinnit2014]

The UK's election system is even worse than the US. And that's putting it lightly

That's the problem with FPTP - if you have broad support across the country but not really concentrated, unlikely to win many seats - if you have concentrated pockets, but not that widespread, you get more seats (Lib Dems)

PR's not without it's faults - like in Scotland you get the Green's, with as much support as Snorky loves Bonanza, who will have an arguably disproportionate power for a group with a low % of the vote in the form of coalitions etc.

 

[pinnit2014]

Ian Paisley Jr lost his seat (a cult of 50 years of family controlled), maybe followed by Donaldson losing his freedom - not the best of times for the DUP. Like to think it's a wake up call for Unionists but i doubt it, they seem to revel in implosion.

Not sure what the turnout is overall but there's been some really low TO's recorded as well.

Waiting to see if mad Liz holds her seat - she'll blame it on the woke ESG reporting or something

 

[pinnit2014]

Edit - she's not even turned up

Edit - there she is

Edit - there she goes

 

[ChopleyIOM]

That's a map of the country I can get on board with.

And Loony Liz has just lost her seat too.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Oh and Jezza won too. Splendid.

Not a bad night for Reform, questions need to be asked when they can secure around 14% of the vote.

Looking at some of the key results from the night, lots of big Tory scalps gone, and in many of the seats Reform have split the right wing vote straight down the middle. Cheers Nige!

Very low overall turnout too, the 'None Of You Bloody Lot' party has done quite well. Labour's share of the vote is not exactly impressive either, FPTP is a pretty wonky electoral system.

Well, it now rests to Keir Starmer and a Labour Government to try and get some decency and probity back into politics in the UK, and hopefully we'll have a better landscape to look out over in five years time.

Oh right and Nige is now an MP at the 846th time of trying. Maybe he'll actually have to do some work for a change, and declare his financial interests too! (Top tip Nige, don't cash the cheques signed by 'V Putin'.)

 

[pinnit2014]

That's a map of the country I can get on board with.

And Loony Liz has just lost her seat too.

View attachment 198621

Good result for 1/3 of the popular vote

 

[mack341]

Can't find the up-to-date vote numbers on the bbc site, will be interesting to compare Starmer's with Corbyn's 2019 (10.2 million) share.

Not sure Corbyn could've even beat these Tories though; but then would they have been so careless in government if they knew they'd risk handing over power to Jezza, (rather than centrist/blairite Starmer), I think not.

Edit: Tobias 'we must go to war with russia' ellwood has lost his seat, oh dear, must've been putin's bot army to blame!

 

[ChopleyIOM]

FPTP is impossible to defend IMO. Here are the numbers at the moment.

Whatever result you wanted from this election, you can't look at these vote numbers and vote share, and how those have translated (or didn't!) into seats in parliament, and conclude it's anything other than an insane and broken system.

I still remember studying A Level Politics back in 1990-1992 (fuck I'm old), we did a whole module on electoral systems, and reached the conclusion as a group that FPTP is bonkers - and that was back in the days when you could argue that FPTP worked relatively well. (Compared to these results.)

If Starmer really wants to show he's made of different stuff, and wants the best for the country, he'll use his first term to reform the UK's electoral system.

 

[mack341]

FPTP is impossible to defend IMO. Here are the numbers at the moment.

Whatever result you wanted from this election, you can't look at these vote numbers and vote share, and how those have translated (or didn't!) into seats in parliament, and conclude it's anything other than an insane and broken system.

I still remember studying A Level Politics back in 1990-1992 (fuck I'm old), we did a whole module on electoral systems, and reached the conclusion as a group that FPTP is bonkers - and that was back in the days when you could argue that FPTP worked relatively well. (Compared to these results.)

If Starmer really wants to show he's made of different stuff, and wants the best for the country, he'll use his first term to reform the UK's electoral system.

View attachment 198622

So 700,000 less than Jezza, just shows the buy-in from the public is dropping.

Starmer has got a massive job to restore faith and confidence in the system. (Hope he succeeds in a way)

Tice, 30p, farage and lowe is not a bad quartet, things could get interesting

 

[pinnit2014]

Can't find the up-to-date vote numbers on the bbc site, will be interesting to compare Starmer's with Corbyn's 2019 (10.2 million) share.

Not sure Corbyn could've even beat these Tories though; but then would they have been so careless in government if they knew they'd risk handing over power to Jezza, (rather than centrist/blairite Starmer), I think not.

Edit: Tobias 'we must go to war with russia' ellwood has lost his seat, oh dear, must've been putin's bot army to blame!

Bit of analysis earlier: Labour up by <2% overall: really via the surge in Scotland, dropped 4% in Wales and remained unchanged more/less in England. Probably accounts for why there's a distinct lack of '97 feel about it.

 

[dunover]

The FPTP system has a few advantages, namely keeping extremists out and making it easy to dismiss a lame duck party in government, something for example that the French and Germans have trouble doing due to PR.

So @ChopleyIOM 's polls he took great pleasure in posting constantly were total bollocks. LieBore ran from 41-44%, over 40% on average and ended up well under with less than 35%.

If you combined the Tory and Reform votes, Labour would have lost the election by a mile.

Reform were 10-12, got over 14% and became third largest party in terms of votes.
Got about 41% of the amount of votes Labour did, but less than 1% of the seats they ended up with, that's FPTP for ya! Got 1/18th. of the seats the LDs did, with 30% more votes!

Farage and Anderson won, so will quickly expose Labour's lies and failings which is good.

The turnout was a record low as most voters realized they were picking from different heads of the same hydra. Never has such a massive majority been won with such a small proportion of the votes, just over a third.

Corbyn is an irrelevance, not sure why he's even mentioned, simply a vote from the Islington set of chatterati, trendies and muslims.

What is most concerning is that as we rapidly see our native population supplanted, beginning with the inner urban areas, is the ethno-voting. In colonised areas, MPs are being elected for their race or religion or both and this means their views on a foreign conflict are deciding parliamentary seats - you are witnessing the germination of the seeds of future civil strife and societal conflict. History will tell you that.

So a weird yet very concerning election result; politics has gone over to high-volatility maths.

 

[thr0b]

Interesting thing about the Reform Share is whether they can hold it up when Farage inevitably gets bored and fucks off, as he is wont to do. When your party is led by a cult (I SAID CULT) of personality, as the Tories were for a good while, that vote share vanishes pretty sharply when that personality goes.

I was amazed to note that UKIP fielded some candidates last night. Remember them being the next big electoral force?

 

[Webzcas]

Woah, what a night. Some two hours sleep grabbed, plus having to go out at 1am in the morning to pick my son up from the 'After School Prom Party' he went to.

Glad I didn't place that ton on Reform now. Although it is very clear we need electoral reform. How can 4 million votes ( yes I got my vote share prediction of 20% plus wrong lol ) only garner 4 seats, yet 3.4 million votes get you as it currently stands 71?

Well, hats off to the Lib Dems, their ground support has always been and is first class in the seats where they have a chance of winning.

Seeing the Tories all but destroyed makes this a good morning, along with the SNP getting a serious bloody nose in Scotland.

The winner though overall, has to be voter apathy. What a shockingly low turnout.

Starmer is no magician though and I expect we have some VERY tough times ahead. I am just pleased we are no longer under the rule of the Selfservatives

 

[megadam]

The FPTP system has a few advantages, namely keeping extremists out and making it easy to dismiss a lame duck party in government, something for example that the French and Germans have trouble doing due to PR.

So @ChopleyIOM 's polls he took great pleasure in posting constantly were total bollocks. LieBore ran from 41-44%, over 40% on average and ended up well under with less than 35%.

Reform were 10-12, got over 14% and became third largest party in terms of votes.
Got about 41% of the amount of votes Labour did, but less than 1% of the seats they ended up with, that's FPTP for ya! Got 1/18th. of the seats the LDs did, with 30% more votes!

Farage and Anderson won, so will quickly expose Labour's lies and failings which is good.

The turnout was a record low as most voters realized they were picking from different heads of the same hydra. Never has such a massive majority been won with such a small proportion of the votes, just over a third.

Corbyn is an irrelevance, not sure why he's even mentioned, simply a vote from the Islington set of chatterati, trendies and muslims.

What is most concerning is that as we rapidly see our native population supplanted, beginning with the inner urban areas, is the ethno-voting. In colonised areas, MPs are being elected for their race or religion or both and this means their views on a foreign conflict are deciding parliamentary seats - you are witnessing the germination of the seeds of future civil strife and societal conflict. History will tell you that.

So a weird yet very concerning election result; politics has gone over to high-volatility maths.

While I've agreed with you on some points you've made Dunover, jeez saying that Farage and Anderson (Who are pathological charlatans) are going to expose Labour's lies is pure fantasy land.

Like saying I'm going to get a max win on Bonanza falls or Dizzy Lizzy getting re-elected, pure fantasy.

 

[pinnit2014]

While I've agreed with you on some points you've made Dunover, jeez saying that Farage and Anderson (Who are pathological charlatans) are going to expose Labour's lies is pure fantasy land.

Like saying I'm going to get a max win on Bonanza falls or Dizzy Lizzy getting re-elected, pure fantasy.

Aye: Anderson's a self serving charlatan - his TV show is pretty bonkers though; for a moment i thought i was watching a shite version of Brass Eye. Least we know how to get him to renege on his principles though - just laugh at him during a Commons vote

 

[irish-ranger]

I guess we'll be swapping the Scottish question for the Irish question for the next few years then...

Yup we're screwed good Friday agreement was signed under the last Labour government, suspect we'll be paying 50 euro to see a GP in the not to distant future

 

[dealer wins]

Labour actually got less votes in 2024 than they did in 2019. Astonishing really.

 

[Webzcas]

Labour actually got less votes in 2024 than they did in 2019. Astonishing really.

As said voter turnout way down. Their share of the vote only up by 2%. They now have many many seats with wafer thin majorities. This is dressed up as a Blair like 97 landslide, but scratch beneath the surface and it is held up by sand.

 

[ollygarch]

So there we have it, a Labour landslide. I doubt Rishi will last out the next month. My money is on Suella to become the new Conservative leader. We and she can then look forward to at least five years of Socialist rampage of what is left of our economy.

 

[pinnit2014]

Yup we're screwed good Friday agreement was signed under the last Labour government, suspect we'll be paying 50 euro to see a GP in the not to distant future

Sinn Fein did take a bit of a beating in last months local Irish elections (% wise) - the next GE there is next year i think and be interesting to see if they dip from their 36 seats. -possibly yes, as there's been a movement of 'Ireland for Ireland' recently, as the left wing will probably take a dent because of it.

Who doesn't like watching Michelle O'Neil grin like a Cheshire Cat

 

[ChopleyIOM]

So there we have it, a Labour landslide. I doubt Rishi will last out the next month. My money is on Suella to become the new Conservative leader. We and she can then look forward to at least five years of Socialist rampage of what is left of our economy.

The Tories have learned the hard way that you can't out-Farage Farage, a lurch to the right has just seen them obliterated.

They'll be back to a nice centrist leader next.

As for Farage, I'm quite glad he's won. He was a famously lazy MEP, hardly ever turning up to debates or participating in the 'day job' of being an MEP, whilst trousering every last penny possible in payments and expenses (and still gets his MEP pension to this day).

Actually having a bit of scrutiny placed on his work ethic (or lack thereof) might not be the worst thing in the world.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

So that's Sunak resigning as leader of the Tories as well now.

Brexit is the ultimate force of destruction, it's seen off FOUR Tory Prime Ministers, it's destroyed the Conservative Party at a general election, and it's seen the rise of far-right populism in the form of Farage/Reform.

I mean, can we at least agree now that Brexit was a really bad idea, really badly done?

(My long term challenge remains open, can anyone name one single thing that Brexit has made better?)

Fair play to Sunak though, it was a decent and civil resignation speech, with generous words for Starmer.

I really just hope that over the next five years we can see politics in the UK be detoxified, and get back to a more civil, and dare I say, more British style of politics - and put Farage back in the racist loony bin where he belongs.

 

[Webzcas]

I really just hope that over the next five years we can see politics in the UK be detoxified, and get back to a more civil, and dare I say, more British style of politics - and put Farage back in the racist loony bin where he belongs.

Couple of points here. This video below sums up the comments the likes of you Chopley like to throw at people who vote for or support Reform UK.

Secondly, Reform UK have four elected Members of Parliament, obtaining over 4 million votes. This thus enables them to take advantage of 'Short Money' that they will now receive. My rough calculations makes that around £5,500,000 give or take a couple of quid.

More than enough to enable them to setup a professional operation over the next few years.

I think your wish for Farage and Co to go away, is up there with Count Binface unseating Sunak last night.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Couple of points here. This video below sums up the comments the likes of you Chopley like to throw at people who vote for or support Reform UK.

See now I didn't say that, at all. I've also EXPLICITLY stated in this thread, more than once, that I don't think everyone who votes for Reform is racist.

I do however believe Farage himself is a fascist and a racist, (his words and actions over the years make that pretty clear IMO).

You can't just completely make something up and then criticise me for it.

That video is total cringe BTW.