Ok, here's another semi-theoretical question!
About BlackJack......
We all know that after a big run of losses, the maths says you are no more or less likely to win than at any other point (although I'm sure we've all had experiences other than that at some point!).
So, Suppose you go for a bonus, and bet 1/2 bankroll bet at start, and continue betting 1/2 your starting bankroll, until you have 2 net losses, or 2 net wins. If you lose, oh well you didnt waste too much time, and if you win, then you can play it out slowly but for a much higher win. So for the first bonus, you just play it.
Now, suppose you win the first time. When the next bonus comes round, supposing you don't play any BJ inbetween (ie you play off WR with pai gow or something) then the current BJ state would be net +2 wins.
We all know that you can never keep winning indefinitely. So.... is it better to keep the same as before, (ie bet 1/2 bankroll straight off) and just hope you can get another +2 in that session for an overall +4 net wins? Or is it better to play a few small hands until you reach a return of say 95% or 4 losses in a row or something, hoping for a change in fortunes?
I was wondering this because recently I managed to double my bonus, and then play it off with a different game, before returning to a spot of BJ and losing 3 in a row before winning 1. So in theory (obv the RNG would have recycled anyway) if I had not played those extra hands, the next time I would have lost 2 in a row and lost the whole bonus - so it was clearly worth wasting a few "losses" in small bets. Any ideas!?
I know that some of this is counter-intuitive to the maths, but then so is real life sometimes! We all know each outcome is independant, but then the maths also says the chances of wininng every hand in a row is basically zero!
About BlackJack......
We all know that after a big run of losses, the maths says you are no more or less likely to win than at any other point (although I'm sure we've all had experiences other than that at some point!).
So, Suppose you go for a bonus, and bet 1/2 bankroll bet at start, and continue betting 1/2 your starting bankroll, until you have 2 net losses, or 2 net wins. If you lose, oh well you didnt waste too much time, and if you win, then you can play it out slowly but for a much higher win. So for the first bonus, you just play it.
Now, suppose you win the first time. When the next bonus comes round, supposing you don't play any BJ inbetween (ie you play off WR with pai gow or something) then the current BJ state would be net +2 wins.
We all know that you can never keep winning indefinitely. So.... is it better to keep the same as before, (ie bet 1/2 bankroll straight off) and just hope you can get another +2 in that session for an overall +4 net wins? Or is it better to play a few small hands until you reach a return of say 95% or 4 losses in a row or something, hoping for a change in fortunes?
I was wondering this because recently I managed to double my bonus, and then play it off with a different game, before returning to a spot of BJ and losing 3 in a row before winning 1. So in theory (obv the RNG would have recycled anyway) if I had not played those extra hands, the next time I would have lost 2 in a row and lost the whole bonus - so it was clearly worth wasting a few "losses" in small bets. Any ideas!?
I know that some of this is counter-intuitive to the maths, but then so is real life sometimes! We all know each outcome is independant, but then the maths also says the chances of wininng every hand in a row is basically zero!