Gambler's fallacy is a fallacy --- And i'll prove it !!

[RouletteTools]

"If you flip a fair coin, the odds of getting heads or tails on any given flip are always 50% (1 in 2), regardless of what happened before.

Even if you’ve flipped heads 20 times in a row, the probability of getting tails on the next flip is still 50%. This is because each coin flip is independent and not influenced by previous outcomes.

The sequence of 20 heads is rare (with odds of 1220\frac{1}{2^{20}}2201, or about 1 in a million), but once it happens, it doesn't affect the next flip. This is a common example of the gambler's fallacy, which is the mistaken belief that past events influence future independent events."



The above statement is actually not true, If it was 50/50 then we would see 30, 40, 50, 100 heads in a row and this never happens, the longer the streak the rarer it is, meaning there's a tails due the more heads there is ... Without a doubt.


As the longer they are the rarer they are this means 5 heads in a row have more chance going to tails rather than another 5 reds.


Looking at 1/1 bets on roulette as a 3 sided coin, flipping the coin and it going red, odd, low consistently for 10 spins would be 3x rarer !!



Try convince me otherwise

 

[SYPlayer95]

All very contradictory. It's just maths

 

[mulven]

All very contradictory. It's just maths

joe croupier is cross posting sort of, I've already tried extensively in another thread to explain probability and fallacies but this guy is either trolling, rage-baiting or just thick.

The thing he quoted isn't even right, the first in the sequence is a freebie so the probability calculation is 1/(0.5^x-1) where x is the number of outcomes in a row, so it would be 1/(0.5^19) for 20 in a row

 

[RouletteTools]

joe croupier is cross posting sort of, I've already tried extensively in another thread to explain probability but this guy is either trolling, rage-baiting or just thick.

and now you're getting abusive ... dam shame, and there's me thinking ur smart


There's always one

 

[mulven]

and now you're getting abusive ... dam shame, and there's me thinking ur smart


There's always one

The ad hominem has indeed entered the fray. Although it appeared in earlier posts when I compared your thinking to a flat earthers.

Your continued posting of nonsense has frustrated me and you seem to actually avoid reading/understanding any of the thorough explanations I've tried to give you.

Not to mention you are still pretending that you and "free roulette tools"/joe croupier are not one and the same.

 

[mulven]

Looking at 1/1 bets on roulette as a 3 sided coin, flipping the coin and it going red, odd, low consistently for 10 spins would be 3x rarer !!

Also hitting a 13.51% (5/37) chance ten times in a row is 1 in 66.5 million compared to a coin flip which is.. 1 in 512 so not 3x rarer but 129,962x rarer.

 

[RouletteTools]

has frustrated me

lol, you've frustrated urself bro

I ain't done a god dam thing wrong other than disagree with you ha ha ha ha !!


You're on the wrong planet buddy, try living on "i get upset over nothing" planet lol

 

[mulven]

lol, you've frustrated urself bro

I ain't done a god dam thing wrong other than disagree with you ha ha ha ha !!


You're on the wrong planet buddy, try living on "i get upset over nothing" planet lol

It is fine if you keep it to yourself but you've been actively spreading demonstrably incorrect information surrounding roulette and probabilities. It's important that members who don't know any better can see corrections to this kind if misinformation and avoid playing certain strategies based off of it that can be dangerous.

I also do not like liars. I have made it clear I know exactly who you after you shilled yourself and yet you continue to deny it.

I don't need a masters degree in forensic linguistics to prove it either. You like multiple hyphens too much.

 

[RouletteTools]

wow, what a moron you are sir, dam shame, and there's me thinking you was smart.

Enjoy ur ignore haha!!

 

[SYPlayer95]

It is fine if you keep it to yourself but you've been actively spreading demonstrably incorrect information surrounding roulette and probabilities. It's important that members who don't know any better can see corrections to this kind if misinformation and avoid playing certain strategies based off of it that can be dangerous.

I also do not like liars. I have made it clear I know exactly who you after you shilled yourself and yet you continue to deny it.

I don't need a masters degree in forensic linguistics to prove it either. You like multiple hyphens too much.

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I think he's made an account here to try sell some useless method and it's obviously backfired.

 

[RouletteTools]

I think he's made an account here to try sell some useless method and it's obviously backfired.

"I think"

u think wrong, without a doubt

 

[mulven]

I think he's made an account here to try sell some useless method and it's obviously backfired.

Funniest bit to me is the self-shill sounded like a trump tweet.

• "some people call him a scammer"
• "he's actually a genius to most"

I do think its a case of him drinking his own kool-aid at this point. He almost definitely believes every word he is saying. The Dunning-Kruger effect is present also. I would have mentioned Hanlon's Razor but given some deceitful behaviour there would appear to be an element of malice.

 

[RouletteTools]

Can i borrow your book on "assumptions" please ?


I sounds like a best seller lol

 

[itsme123]

It is fine if you keep it to yourself but you've been actively spreading demonstrably incorrect information surrounding roulette and probabilities. It's important that members who don't know any better can see corrections to this kind if misinformation and avoid playing certain strategies based off of it that can be dangerous.

I also do not like liars. I have made it clear I know exactly who you after you shilled yourself and yet you continue to deny it.

I don't need a masters degree in forensic linguistics to prove it either. You like multiple hyphens too much.

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Looks very much like you Columbo'd him, ID'd him at the start and put the case together with the self incriminating evidence.
I can't recall the last time I saw anyone using hyphens in the way he does, most people use one not multiple, and he still denies it.

 

[mulven]

Looks very much like you Columbo'd him, ID'd him at the start and put the cast together with the self incriminating evidence.
I can't recall the last time I saw anyone using hyphens in the way he does, most people use one not multiple, and he still denies it.

It's not even just the hyphens, his use of other punctuation such as !! or ?? is present in both the shilled youtube and the titles of his forum posts.

There was even enough evidence from the shilling post combined with his 3rd post on the forum:

ok thxs, how do i get approval for outside links, they go to some zero-cost roulette-wheel tools and youtube stuff

Then proceeds to shill a youtube channel (the name of which is actually present in the post indirectly so i've changed it slightly in the quote) that promotes the very tools mentioned in the 3rd post.

I'm actually a little bit shocked he has the gall to continue denying it even now.

You were correct in your hypothesis that he made the account solely for potential personal gain and his 3rd post is almost enough evidence for that alone.

 

[snorky510238]

Anyone who knows anything about electronic roulette, knows that it’s 100% rigged (not random), anyway. It doesn’t matter what strategy you use, it’ll stuff you over.

 

[RouletteTools]

Anyone who knows anything about electronic roulette, knows that it’s 100% rigged (not random), anyway. It doesn’t matter what strategy you use, it’ll stuff you over.

Very true, but gamblers fallacy has nothing to do with etgs, they'll just rob you whenever they feel lol

 

[snorky510238]

Just like online slots will do the same. It’s the term “random”, that’s the fallacy.

 

[RouletteTools]

Just like online slots will do the same. It’s the term “random”, that’s the fallacy.

very true, roulette is far from random, we're lucky there's only 37 numbers, 2 colors, 2 number properties, and highs and lows.

If we had 153 numbers, 13 colors, highs, not as highs, just little less than high, mediums, lower ones and even lower than lower numbers we wouldn't see the order in chaos as easy.

We're lucky lol

 

[johnnymcc1966]

wow, what a moron you are sir, dam shame, and there's me thinking you was smart.

Enjoy ur ignore haha!!

I think a smart person would have better grammar than you are currently displaying. Admit that you are wrong and take your medicine. It doesn't matter, we are all wrong at least some of the time.

 

[RouletteTools]

I think a smart person would have better grammar than you are currently displaying. Admit that you are wrong and take your medicine. It doesn't matter, we are all wrong at least some of the time.

Grow up


We have money to make, to feed a family, pay the bills, buy some smoke, bet on roulette etc etc etc

 

[johnnymcc1966]

Grow up


We have money to make, to feed a family, pay the bills, buy some smoke, bet on roulette etc etc etc

Now you are the one insulting people.

 

[itsme123]

Now you are the one insulting people.

Its a typical response from someone who was found out and who's only here to get a few tenners of people for his " surefire" strategy to beat a game that can't be beaten in the long term--- or in other words just another BS artist trying to wind people up.

 

[goatwack]

The first barney in a post-Bryan landscape, and yet almost like a glorious throwback to the early days of 'differing opinions' leading to name-calling aplenty!

And whilst gambling patterns can be streaky, having each result independent from the last and being randomly drawn with the element of human dealers and not robots, even Simple Jack would know that getting eg 100 reds in a row on Roulette is farcical, however tiny the possibility...

Now, please, bring on the mum-cusses

 

[Guntis]

But did you know that it's theoretically possible to flip tails forever? True in math, but BS in reality.

 

[goatwack]

And to think, out there somewhere, a lucky player's still running on the Unlimited Multiplier from their very first Bonanza session all those years ago!

Worst part being, rumour has it they're still on the 31x multiplier!

 

[Reelsoffun]

the Unlimited Multiplier

Yeah but like a lot of things related to gambling that is just misunderstood.

What that actually means, is that the multiplier isn’t capped, unlike older games that had a “increasing multiplier” that was. Obviously there will be a mathematical expected highest point but nothing stopping it exceeding that etc.

Much in the same way of seeing 20 reds in a row on roulette is rare but it isn’t capped and on rare occasions it will exceed that an unlimited amount of times.

Some players just see the words “unlimited multiplier” and just think wow it could get to 100+ when in reality 30/40 is going to be top end of the outliers.

 

[Jono777]

....wait, coins have 3 sides ??? ??

 

[Reelsoffun]

Yeah, heads, tails, and on their edge/side,

If I was to call heads AND tails thats the side it would land on! :xxx: