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Corona virus - Covid 19 discussion

Just leaving these here to form your own opinion

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Add on top the far less collateral damage swedes will face compared to the uk approach, this damage will appear through the coming years as well as this year.

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According to that map: per capita Sweden has slightly lower number of cases than the UK: 1022 vs 1043.

Collateral damage of letting people get the illness might not show immediately, as Chopley posted earlier today "long covid" might be a thing and is being researched. That's why most governments don't let a new disease run rampant and try to protect the general population. Don't get me wrong tho: the immediate economical, social and health issues of everyone else worries me too. I think we underestimate the fact the hard choices governments have to take.
 
Whilst the positivity rate or hospitalisation rate is not as high as in april we are seeing exponential growth in hospitalisations and are at the rate of mid march now.

Percentages mean nothing when your hospitals are filling up and getting in trouble. It might be only 3% that's hospitalised now but if it's 3% of 10.000 positive tests compared to 10% of 3.000 that's exactly the same.

I'm only posting in regard to the UK situation and stats, our politicians were recently considering another national lockdown when different regions have different hospitilisation rates and case numbers [pcr tests]
 
I'm only posting in regard to the UK situation and stats, our politicians were recently considering another national lockdown when different regions have different hospitilisation rates and case numbers [pcr tests]

Same here, the southern part of the country is being hit the worst right now whilst in spring it was the northern part. But the situation is precarious here too, it doesn't take much right now and it's generally underestimated how exponential growth works.
 
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According to that map: per capita Sweden has slightly lower number of cases than the UK: 1022 vs 1043.

Collateral damage of letting people get the illness might not show immediately, as Chopley posted earlier today "long covid" might be a thing and is being researched. That's why most governments don't let a new disease run rampant and try to protect the general population. Don't get me wrong tho: the immediate economical, social and health issues of everyone else worries me too. I think we underestimate the fact the hard choices governments have to take.

On average about 20,000 people die in the uk from seasonal influenza, no masks or social distancing [or other lockdown measures] have ever been introduced to reduce that; about 80% of covid cases have no or only mild symptoms; bearing in mind sweden aren't using masks and all the other uk restrictions like rule 6, according to the lockdown scientists logic they should be experiencing much higher cases?
 
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On average about 20,000 people die in the uk from seasonal influenza, no masks or social distancing [or other lockdown measures] have ever been introduced to reduce that; about 80% of covid cases have no or only mild symptoms; bearing in mind sweden aren't using masks and all the other uk restrictions like rule 6, according to the lockdown scientists logic they should be experiencing much higher cases?

Population density and social culture are big motors in an epidemic. Sweden's numbers in the cities probably look different than where Kroffe lives, and according to stories I read they are far less social than Brits, Spanish, Italians or Belgians.
 
Anyway, all these theories...

Just heard today that a friend of mine has to quarantine because a work collegue tested positive, he's being tested himself later this week. He said he doesn't fear for himself as he's relatively healthy but he's recently been in contact with his parents tho: his dad has heart disease and his mom is recovering from cancer. I hope it'll work out fine for them.
 
Population density and social culture are big motors in an epidemic. Sweden's numbers in the cities probably look different than where Kroffe lives, and according to stories I read they are far less social than Brits, Spanish, Italians or Belgians.

I wont buy the population density argument (Which is all the world have got left to throw at Sweden), because other countries with similar densities to Sweden are also doing just as badly as the UK and most European countries.

Sweden got it right, and its plain as day to see. And I have no idea why the rest of the world are not immediately employing what Sweden have done/are doing.

Makes you wonder if its about more than covid, because the world's countries cannot all be that stupid can they?
 
I wont buy the population density argument (Which is all the world have got left to throw at Sweden), because other countries with similar densities to Sweden are also doing just as badly as the UK and most European countries.

Sweden got it right, and its plain as day to see. And I have no idea why the rest of the world are not immediately employing what Sweden have done/are doing.

Makes you wonder if its about more than covid, because the world's countries cannot all be that stupid can they?

But do what exactly? Protect the vulnerable and let it run rampant amongst the rest of the population? Eventually the younger generation will pass it on to their parents or grandparents... The wave going on in Belgium right now also started out with the younger generation, hospitalisation numbers were very low and most people that were tested had very low viral loads. But since 3 weeks it has been getting out of hand and jumped to the more vulnerable too which lead to more people in the hospitals and deaths are on the rise :(
 
Its a virus, all lockdowns do is cause job losses, debt, mental health issues, untreated cancers and other serious health conditions. These will cost many many more lives than covid will, and leave us all poorer and bring widespread poverty and deprivation. (Coming to the UK next year big time)

As Sweden's data shows, covid will get its exact % of victims whether we lockdown or not, but not locking down avoids all the other horrific consequences I mention.
 
I would probably favour an adjusted swedish approach to take account of differences, e.g. more people in the uk suffer from chronic illness - asthma, obesity, heart disease etc...so targeted assistance to let them reduce their risk - if they wish to receive it - right to work from home if job can be done that way, priority food deliveries, GP visits etc...

Masks for confined spaces like the underground and buses I wouldn't disagree with; some people in sweden do choose to wear a mask, but on the other hand if they were that effective we wouldn't be seeing the figures rise again in europe and uk where mask wearing is common.

-------------

It's hard not to see klaus schwab and his 'great reset' as the elephant in the room, along with the fourth industrial revolution which he has also written about.

1603070751321.webp


If this is why we have to have a 'new normal' and can't go back to normality, I can't see it working. I'm sure there are still enough conservative people that will object and kick boris and his chums out.

The first part of this recent video of boris speaking is letting the cat out of the bag "to think that life will go on as before the plague, and it will not...these events are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change"

 
Wouldnt it be better to look at our neighbours Norway&Finland since they have done alot better with the virus than we have.
I think the only reason you are comparing with Sweden is because you are against lockdowns,masks etc, not because what we are doing is working.

I tried asking Ternur what they were doing in the beginning to stop the spread, but this was all i got out of him, so you will have to use google or something.

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I would probably favour an adjusted swedish approach to take account of differences, e.g. more people in the uk suffer from chronic illness - asthma, obesity, heart disease etc...so targeted assistance to let them reduce their risk - if they wish to receive it - right to work from home if job can be done that way, priority food deliveries, GP visits etc...

Masks for confined spaces like the underground and buses I wouldn't disagree with; some people in sweden do choose to wear a mask, but on the other hand if they were that effective we wouldn't be seeing the figures rise again in europe and uk where mask wearing is common.

-------------

It's hard not to see klaus schwab and his 'great reset' as the elephant in the room, along with the fourth industrial revolution which he has also written about.

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If this is why we have to have a 'new normal' and can't go back to normality, I can't see it working. I'm sure there are still enough conservative people that will object and kick boris and his chums out.

The first part of this recent video of boris speaking is letting the cat out of the bag "to think that life will go on as before the plague, and it will not...these events are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change"



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From the UK gov site. look who sucks up to that evil man. This is not about covid anymore!!
 
Wouldnt it be better to look at our neighbours Norway&Finland since they have done alot better with the virus than we have.
I think the only reason you are comparing with Sweden is because you are against lockdowns,masks etc, not because what we are doing is working.

I tried asking Ternur what they were doing in the beginning to stop the spread, but this was all i got out of him, so you will have to use google or something.

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You must have seen the charts I posted earlier, are you saying I am only against the lockdown in the uk because it worked?

I am not aware of anything norway or finland did different to the uk, perhaps there are other intrinsic reasons, that could not be replicated, which have led to better outcomes?
 
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You must have seen the charts I posted earlier, are you saying I am only against the lockdown in the uk because it worked?

I am not aware of anything norway or finland did different to the uk, perhaps there are other intrinsic reasons, that could not be replicated, which have led to better outcomes?
But why compare with Sweden when we did so much worse than Norway&Finland?
Wouldnt it make more sense to try to figure out what they did different, and why it worked so well there instead of copying a failing method.
 
Is it a coincidence the worlds biggest nations all employed economic suicide by lockdowns and suppression of their citizens basic freedoms, and now all have the "build back better slogan" on their podiums.

This is not about covid anymore, and was it ever?

'build back better', very much like doublespeak in 1984, will likely have the opposite meaning for the majority of people and their freedoms; but better for the 1%, I think the billionaires have already seen their fortunes increase by 27% during this pandemic/lockdown [ 2.3 trillion$ iirc ]
 
But why compare with Sweden when we did so much worse than Norway&Finland?
Wouldnt it make more sense to try to figure out what they did different, and why it worked so well there instead of copying a failing method.

I think I covered that point, I'm not aware of anything finland and norway did per lockdown that was different to the uk, nothing has been brought to my attention by the bbc and msm; matt mancock the uk health minister hasn't mentioned anything, as far as I'm aware, why finland and norway have had better outcomes, surely it's his job to find that out.

Compared to the UK, france, spain, italy and belgium, sweden's method is not failing. According to the pro- lockdown scientists sweden should be doing worse than the uk but it is faring better, that is a big anomaly that needs to be explained by them.
 
I think I covered that point, I'm not aware of anything finland and norway did per lockdown that was different to the uk, nothing has been brought to my attention by the bbc and msm; matt mancock the uk health minister hasn't mentioned anything, as far as I'm aware, why finland and norway have had better outcomes, surely it's his job to find that out.

Compared to the UK, france, spain, italy and belgium, sweden's method is not failing. According to the pro- lockdown scientists sweden should be doing worse than the uk but it is faring better, that is a big anomaly that needs explaining by them.

Well, I know Finland had a big stockpile of PPE so that might've helped if they could supply elderly homes and medical institutions with masks and other protective gear immediately.

One other reason I can think of that Sweden's method is "not failing" is because people there in general listen to the governments advice whilst when the British (and other countries) gov't gives out an advice or guidelines people are ignoring it just because it's not a rule or law.
 
Didnt it take alot of time to get testing&tracing going in the uk?
Is it working good now?


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"Finland appears to have used that lockdown wisely, building up its capacity for testing as well as contact tracing. Mr Salminen pointed to a big increase in staff dealing with contact tracing as well as an app that has been downloaded by 2.1m people out of a population of 5.5m. "

May be a culture/mindset thing aswell that plays a part.
If 2.1m people has downloaded the app, that probably means almost every adult has it, atleast every family.
Ive not seen any articles about people going against the rules put in place to sun bathe, have parties etc like the ones ive seen from the uk.
 
Had a brief look on google but searching for 'finland, norway lockdown compared to UK' for some reason only brought up articles about sweden...

have just found this one though about Norway, 28th may

Norway health chief claims coronavirus could have been controlled without lockdown

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One of Norway’s most senior public health officials has claimed the Nordic country could have controlled the coronavirus outbreak without a lockdown.

Camille Stoltenberg, head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), says that analysis suggests less restrictive measures would have been sufficient - and has urged the authorities to avoid taking such a heavy-handed approach in the event of a second wave of infections.

....according to
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, the NIPH published a
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at the start of May stating that the country’s outbreak was already slowing when the nationwide lockdown was announced.

“It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1... We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down,” the report says.
 
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Well, I know Finland had a big stockpile of PPE so that might've helped if they could supply elderly homes and medical institutions with masks and other protective gear immediately.

One other reason I can think of that Sweden's method is "not failing" is because people there in general listen to the governments advice whilst when the British (and other countries) gov't gives out an advice or guidelines people are ignoring it just because it's not a rule or law.

There is some truth to that, but I believe by and large people followed the advice/rules, and also there are various articles/thoughts that the virus was circulating earlier in the uk from december/january, in which case a lockdown applied mid march may have been bolting the stable door after the horse had already bolted.

We should have been stricter regarding international air travel early on, but then apparently boris and his advisers were strongly considering going down the HI route before changing their mind and settling on a lockdown.
 
South korea is somewhat close to UK population-wise. 55m SK 66m UK
They only have 25k cases, and 444 deaths compared to uks 720k cases and 43k deaths.
They went pretty hard on the lockdown if i remember correct.

I won't deny it is interesting how countries have achieved such good results against this virus, that's not even a week of influenza deaths in the winter in the uk, hopefully there will be investigations and studies telling the truth even if it shames govt failings.

edit: Apparently peru had the toughest lockdowns and yet one of the worst fatality rates, so all angles need looking into.
 
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It is interesting how countries have achieved such good results against this virus, that's not even a week of influenza deaths in the winter in the uk, hopefully there will be investigations and studies telling the truth even if it shames govt failings.
Will probably be a while before anything like that gets done.
Maybe south korea will get hit harder in the coming months due to zero people with antibodies.
But who knows how efficient antibodies even are since you can get it more than once apparently.

I think it will be first after the virus is gone, or atleast close to it that we can really see what worked and what didnt.
Looks to me like alot of countries are just feeling their way forward, and learning as they go.
There are probably many different ways that can be effective, as long as there is a clear plan to follow and its followed by the people.
 
South korea is somewhat close to UK population-wise. 55m SK 66m UK
They only have 25k cases, and 444 deaths compared to uks 720k cases and 43k deaths.
They went pretty hard on the lockdown if i remember correct.

Japan also has interesting numbers. They don't do that much testing tho, according to one of their head honcho's PCR testing won't help much because of the amount of asymptomatic carriers. Their strategy is to go hard on cluster busting. Whenever there's a couple of infections popping up in the same neighborhood they start tracing it back to where it originates and aren't afraid to close down certain restaurants or bars when it turns out it originated there.
 
The cases in Finland are going up fast atm. Mostly among the younger population, a demographic which has far less severe cases than older population.

We did have strict lockdown measures in the spring, even closed one county all together -- nobody in or out without a very good reason.

IMO, the lockdown worked earlier. We didn't get nowhere near the numbers like e.g. Sweden has had.

In the spring, the virus situation was new and not well known.

If Sweden was going for herd immunity (even if they deny that), that really hasn't worked, has it? If by going through covid results in having antibodies for mere months, it's hardly effective.

Rather than looking at the self-centered western countries, maybe we should look at some SE Asian countries? Where the situation is actually great (if the reported numbers are accurate):

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Huh?

The chart doesn't show any such thing, and there is no herd immunity to Covid-19 in Sweden.

I just don't even begin to understand where you can draw that conclusion from.

We have had zero deaths on the IOM to Covid since May, but that doesn't mean we have immunity to it, it just means we have suppressed the virus and eliminated it from local circulation.

We did all this last month, with evidence and sources.

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Huh?

The chart doesn't show any such thing, and there is no herd immunity to Covid-19 in Sweden.

I just don't even begin to understand where you can draw that conclusion from.

We have had zero deaths on the IOM to Covid since May, but that doesn't mean we have immunity to it, it just means we have suppressed the virus and eliminated it from local circulation.

We did all this last month, with evidence and sources.

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Old URL

Chop you're a small island with a lowish population, that has banned tourists/travellers coming to the island, you're more comparable to new zealand than sweden; if the virus is still around all through 2021 and the vaccine is 50% effective, if you've then got to open back up for tourism [tt race esp] then things get more complicated once more.

Antibodies are not the only measure of immunity, [t-cells play a roll] that is well documented, why do you think 80% of cases in the uk have hardly any symptoms to this 'novel deadly' virus, may not even know they've had it; possibly because it's a coronavirus and shares similar features with the other members of that virus family, that is enough to help the immune system fight it in some people, others facing a small viral load also helps the immune system fight it off.

Immune cells for common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2
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.

  • A study of blood samples taken before the COVID-19 pandemic showed that some people already had certain immune cells that recognize SARS-CoV-2.
  • These immune cells also reacted with coronaviruses that cause common colds.
  • The findings suggest that existing immune cells may help account for the wide range of symptoms experienced by people with COVID-19.

Your body’s disease defense system, the immune system, makes B and T cells when exposed to pathogens like viruses and bacteria. B cells make antibodies, which neutralize the microbes, rendering them harmless. T cells have a variety of functions, including killing infected cells and activating or recruiting other immune cells.

To investigate further, a research team led by Drs. Alessandro Sette and Daniela Weiskopf at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology tested blood samples collected between March 2015 and March 2018 for T-cell responses against different pieces of SARS-CoV-2.

“We have now proven that, in some people, pre-existing T cell memory against common cold coronaviruses can cross-recognize SARS-CoV-2, down to the exact molecular structures
,” Weiskopf says. “This could help explain why some people show milder symptoms of disease while others get severely sick.”

“It still remains to be addressed whether this immune memory reactivity influences clinical outcomes and translates into some degrees of protection from more severe disease,” adds Sette. “Having a strong T cell response, or a better T cell response may give you the opportunity to mount a much quicker and stronger response.”

Notably, these findings contrast with those from antibodies, which haven’t shown significant cross-reactivity between common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2. More research is needed to determine whether immune cell cross-reactivity contributes to the wide range of symptoms seen with COVID-19.

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Whether sweden has achieved the scientific/technical definition of total herd immunity I don't know, but their cases and deaths now [with no real measures in place to prevent social interactions] suggest they have achieved greater immunity than the UK? [ and to make the critical point again with far less collateral damage ]
 
from the mail 15th oct:

Anders Wallensten, deputy to the state's leading epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, said the country has 'some immunity as a consequence of how we have managed' the crisis.

As a result, cases are not rising as drastically as in the UK, france and spain because a layer of immunity has stopped people from catching it, he suggested.

He said Swedes have not become tired of the restrictions because they have remained the same throughout the whole pandemic in order to avoid confusion.



edit: right I'm all covided out, so pro-lockdown readers will be happy no more posts from me on this for the foreseeable!
 
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Ermmmm absolutely.. or maybe not . Help.... me no speaky lingo
Great report.

Agree with the bits I understood. :laugh:

Yes. And apologies.

New corona variant discovered in Trondheim.

- Municipal chief physician Tove Røsstad went out early last week and warned that Trondheim may have a more contagious virus in circulation.

- At the first sequencing of the samples, the analysis has shown that the variant of the virus that can be linked to this outbreak is unknown.

- The virus seems more contagious, but we have not seen that it causes more serious disease.


Or something along those lines.
 
Yes. And apologies.

New corona variant discovered in Trondheim.

- Municipal chief physician Tove Røsstad went out early last week and warned that Trondheim may have a more contagious virus in circulation.

- At the first sequencing of the samples, the analysis has shown that the variant of the virus that can be linked to this outbreak is unknown.

- The virus seems more contagious, but we have not seen that it causes more serious disease.


Or something along those lines.

I just read it as:

Me want-y Beer.

And left you to it.
 
Yes. And apologies.

New corona variant discovered in Trondheim.

- Municipal chief physician Tove Røsstad went out early last week and warned that Trondheim may have a more contagious virus in circulation.

- At the first sequencing of the samples, the analysis has shown that the variant of the virus that can be linked to this outbreak is unknown.

- The virus seems more contagious, but we have not seen that it causes more serious disease.


Or something along those lines.

Mutating usually means the virus is having a harder time finding hosts and has to adapt to find more, in the process it usually gets a tad milder everytime it has to do this because in the end it doesn't want to run out of hosts.

Atleast that's what I've read early in the pandemic, the human coronaviruses we have now that mostly cause a common cold also once originated from different species and adapted. People get them on the regular and they have to keep mutating so we don't get immune to them.

It's a reason for me to have a hard time believing in herd immunity. A vaccin might help for a bit but would also be limited in time. By the time the most essential workers are vaccinated they have to start round 2 :confused:
 
Whether sweden has achieved the scientific/technical definition of total herd immunity I don't know, but their cases and deaths now [with no real measures in place to prevent social interactions] suggest they have achieved greater immunity than the UK? [ and to make the critical point again with far less collateral damage ]

You can't compare Sweden and the UK as they are so different. A major factor being population density.
In fact, don't they have a worse record than Norway and Denmark, who had similar lockdowns to the UK?
 
You can't compare Sweden and the UK as they are so different. A major factor being population density.
In fact, don't they have a worse record than Norway and Denmark, who had similar lockdowns to the UK?

This isn't a new post by me [so I'm sticking to my decision above regarding no covid posting for the meantime] but just reposting the information I wrote to vorcirion regarding sweden's density of pop.

wikipedia:

87% of the population live in urban areas, which cover 1.5% of the entire land area.
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63% of Swedes are in large urban areas.
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The population density is substantially higher in the south than in the north.
 
This isn't a new post by me [so I'm sticking to my decision above regarding no covid posting for the meantime] but just reposting the information I wrote to vorcirion regarding sweden's density of pop.

wikipedia:

87% of the population live in urban areas, which cover 1.5% of the entire land area.
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63% of Swedes are in large urban areas.
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The population density is substantially higher in the south than in the north.
ok, that doesn't tell me anything though? How does that compare to the UK density wise?

There are about 10 million people in Sweden, there are about 9 million live in London alone (obviously that doesn't include people who travel in daily for work).
Sweden is roughly 450000 km2
London is roughly 1500km2

You surely can't say the population density is anywhere close.
However Norway and Denmarks is similar I believe.
 
That cant be true.
If it was, 8.7 out of 10 of my friends would be living in an urban area, but they dont.
Explain that Mr numbers-guy.

Not a good example as you know you only have 8 friends who i listed and they all stay in a sparsely populated wood. But majority of people stay in busier areas

  • Christopher Robin.
  • Piglet.
  • Tigger.
  • Eeyore.
  • Rabbit.
  • Owl.
  • Kanga.
  • Roo.
 
Not a good example as you know you only have 8 friends who i listed and they all stay in a sparsely populated wood. But majority of people stay in busier areas

  • Christopher Robin.
  • Piglet.
  • Tigger.
  • Eeyore.
  • Rabbit.
  • Owl.
  • Kanga.
  • Roo.
Is the reason Owl is not in bold because hes a bit of a bastard?
Because he is.


@colinsunderland
I think the density in the bigger cities of Sweden are probably pretty close to cities in the UK.
Atleast Stockholm is crowded like crazy everywhere you go.
People walking in escalators and other crazy things.

Whats the point of building stairs that move if you are just going to use it like normal stairs.
Southerners are not right in the head.
 
Is the reason Owl is not in bold because hes a bit of a bastard?
Because he is.

Nope. It is because unlike you and the rest owl is wise. And fact he is flying makes him further away so less noticeable than the rest of you.
 

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