Brexit - whats the difference.....

Where you get your info from? From Brexit busses? The ability to separate facts from fiction is a good skill to have.
And one which you should acquire...:thumbsup:
 
Analysis of the actual agreement is now starting to come through, the EU have got all their headline boxes ticked, and have compromised where it suited them. That said, I also agree with this comment, the Conservative Party have done well, and indeed have successfully polished the turd, in a way, they have 'won' Brexit.

What follows now of course is years and years more negotiations with the EU to build upon the framework of this deal, and over time we will align and converge more, but I guess the walking Daily Mails such as dunover will be content that it's all done from a position of UK 'sovereignty'.

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Final thoughts for this evening as I'm going to stick a film on.

It's good that there's a deal, whatever the crazies said about No Deal being just fine, it would have been a catastrofuck, bad for the EU but even worse for the UK - so I'm glad that the negotiators managed to put something together in a very tight timeframe.

There are quite a few mitigations and allowances to make January 1st not too much of a seismic shock, although it remains to be seen what Customs is going to look like, but I'm hopeful there are sufficient agreements in place to keep air, sea and road travel running in something like a normal fashion, which will also extend to freight of course. There's a school of thought that it might all break down badly early on, that remains to be seen.

So really what we're likely to be looking at is a sort of gradual decline, there are literally no credible economic studies that suggest that the UK will end up anything other than poorer due to Brexit, with all sorts of extra costs and bureaucracy conjured into being where businesses and individuals have not had to deal with such things for decades.

Ultimately things are going to get a bit shitter, over time, for no real benefit, but it's not going to be the calamity that No Deal would have been.

It's preferable to No Deal, it's the best that could have been managed given the red lines on both sides, but as the detail of the agreement is studied, it's clear who got most of what they wanted, but the UK got enough to throw to the headbangers and it'll get through parliament OK (well, especially since Starmer has said Labour will vote for it), even Loonybin Farage has declared 'the war is over' and hopefully we'll see an end to terrible language such as that being used at all.

Overall, meh, could have been worse.

3/10 - Would not Brexit again.
 
So then, THE MIDNIGHT SKY on Netflix, directed by and starring that there George Clooney. Takes too long with a disjointed dual narrative to get to admittedly a very effective ending. Not a total disaster but I couldn't go more than 575/1000.

----------------

Back to Brexit, here are all the committees we're signed up to with the EU going forward, this excludes the Withdrawal Agreement and NI Protocol.

Now personally I think this is a good thing, it means we'll be talking to, and working with, the EU on an ongoing basis. For those who dreamed of a 'clean break' and us going it alone in the world, dream on, we are simply too intertwined for that.

What this also means of course is absolutely endless bureaucracy and meetings and debates, the likes of which Brexit was allegedly designed to eliminate, but will in fact magnify. We just have to do it all ourselves now instead of basically having the EU do it for us.

My personal feeling is that now 'BREXIT HAS BEEN DONE', what will actually happen over the years to come, quietly and without fanfare, because no one really cares anymore and everyone got thoroughly fed up with Brexit first time around, is we'll largely align with, and fundamentally co-operate with the EU, because ultimately that works out best for both the UK and the EU. (Well that's not just my personal feeling, a lot of better informed people than me seem to think that's what'll happen.)

I still think the whole thing is a monumental waste of time, effort and money, but we're out of the EU, we've left, transition is coming to an end, and at least we have something to build on. Brexit was always much favoured by older people, the young were very much against it, those young people will grow up, and one day, we'll be back in. Not in 5 years, I doubt in 10 years, but maybe 15-20 years down the line I can see the UK being an EU member again.

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So then, THE MIDNIGHT SKY on Netflix, directed by and starring that there George Clooney. Takes too long with a disjointed dual narrative to get to admittedly a very effective ending. Not a total disaster but I couldn't go more than 575/1000.

----------------

Back to Brexit, here are all the committees we're signed up to with the EU going forward, this excludes the Withdrawal Agreement and NI Protocol.

Now personally I think this is a good thing, it means we'll be talking to, and working with, the EU on an ongoing basis. For those who dreamed of a 'clean break' and us going it alone in the world, dream on, we are simply too intertwined for that.

What this also means of course is absolutely endless bureaucracy and meetings and debates, the likes of which Brexit was allegedly designed to eliminate, but will in fact magnify. We just have to do it all ourselves now instead of basically having the EU do it for us.

My personal feeling is that now 'BREXIT HAS BEEN DONE', what will actually happen over the years to come, quietly and without fanfare, because no one really cares anymore and everyone got thoroughly fed up with Brexit first time around, is we'll largely align with, and fundamentally co-operate with the EU, because ultimately that works out best for both the UK and the EU. (Well that's not just my personal feeling, a lot of better informed people than me seem to think that's what'll happen.)

I still think the whole thing is a monumental waste of time, effort and money, but we're out of the EU, we've left, transition is coming to an end, and at least we have something to build on. Brexit was always much favoured by older people, the young were very much against it, those young people will grow up, and one day, we'll be back in. Not in 5 years, I doubt in 10 years, but maybe 15-20 years down the line I can see the UK being an EU member again.

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Great story bro!
 
Here's one of the first full, impartial analysis of THE DEAL. (BIG RED LETTERS OOOOHHHHH.)

It's a longish read but they are condensing down hundreds of pages into a few relatively digestible paragraphs per area, and converting the legal document speak into plain English.

In honesty I'm surprised at some of the ground the EU has given, I really didn't expect them to move an inch on LPF and whilst the provisions are still there, they're not the same as the EU's starting position.

The UK has not done well on fish at all, and don't let Johnson's lies convince you otherwise.

Tariff and quota free access on goods is welcome, although very much in the EU's interests as they have a large trade surplus with us.

On services however (where the UK has a large surplus to the EU), there's really very little, the UK has done poorly there, and for an economy that is 80% services, well, that's not great.

It's also worth noting that this is going to be an organic, evolving agreement, major negotiations come around every five years, which just so happens to synchronise with the EU elections. If you wanted Brexit to mean the UK is out of the EU, then yes, you've got that, but the gravitational pull between the two doesn't vanish overnight, and we'll be negotiating with the EU forever. Literally forever.

There's a lot of 'boring' stuff in there, that's also very important, such as data sharing and security, we'll be renegotiating that on an ongoing basis.

It's strange in a way as both Leavers and Remainers have cause to be content on some level, but discontented in others.

For Leavers the UK is out of the EU, but very much still aligning with the EU in all sorts of key areas and we're basically going to track what the EU does without influencing its decisions, but hey, we're out of the EU and doing it as a SOVEREIGN NATION. Yes we'll take an economic hit, but it's worth it for < insert Daily Mail headline here >.

For Remainers the UK is out of the EU, but we have a Deal which provides a framework upon which to rebuild co-operation and trust over the years, and in many regards we're still going to be doing what the EU does anyway. As a country we'll get poorer, but we've avoided the catastrophe of No Deal.

One could legitimately ask the question what the bloody point of it all is.

Anyway, here it is if you want to read it for yourself:

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Here's one of the first full, impartial analysis of THE DEAL. (BIG RED LETTERS OOOOHHHHH.)

It's a longish read but they are condensing down hundreds of pages into a few relatively digestible paragraphs per area, and converting the legal document speak into plain English.

In honesty I'm surprised at some of the ground the EU has given, I really didn't expect them to move an inch on LPF and whilst the provisions are still there, they're not the same as the EU's starting position.

The UK has not done well on fish at all, and don't let Johnson's lies convince you otherwise.

Tariff and quota free access on goods is welcome, although very much in the EU's interests as they have a large trade surplus with us.

On services however (where the UK has a large surplus to the EU), there's really very little, the UK has done poorly there, and for an economy that is 80% services, well, that's not great.

It's also worth noting that this is going to be an organic, evolving agreement, major negotiations come around every five years, which just so happens to synchronise with the EU elections. If you wanted Brexit to mean the UK is out of the EU, then yes, you've got that, but the gravitational pull between the two doesn't vanish overnight, and we'll be negotiating with the EU forever. Literally forever.

There's a lot of 'boring' stuff in there, that's also very important, such as data sharing and security, we'll be renegotiating that on an ongoing basis.

It's strange in a way as both Leavers and Remainers have cause to be content on some level, but discontented in others.

For Leavers the UK is out of the EU, but very much still aligning with the EU in all sorts of key areas and we're basically going to track what the EU does without influencing its decisions, but hey, we're out of the EU and doing it as a SOVEREIGN NATION. Yes we'll take an economic hit, but it's worth it for < insert Daily Mail headline here >.

For Remainers the UK is out of the EU, but we have a Deal which provides a framework upon which to rebuild co-operation and trust over the years, and in many regards we're still going to be doing what the EU does anyway. As a country we'll get poorer, but we've avoided the catastrophe of No Deal.

One could legitimately ask the question what the bloody point of it all is.

Anyway, here it is if you want to read it for yourself:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.


View attachment 147996
 
Here's one of the first full, impartial analysis of THE DEAL. (BIG RED LETTERS OOOOHHHHH.)

It's a longish read but they are condensing down hundreds of pages into a few relatively digestible paragraphs per area, and converting the legal document speak into plain English.

In honesty I'm surprised at some of the ground the EU has given, I really didn't expect them to move an inch on LPF and whilst the provisions are still there, they're not the same as the EU's starting position.

The UK has not done well on fish at all, and don't let Johnson's lies convince you otherwise.

Tariff and quota free access on goods is welcome, although very much in the EU's interests as they have a large trade surplus with us.

On services however (where the UK has a large surplus to the EU), there's really very little, the UK has done poorly there, and for an economy that is 80% services, well, that's not great.

It's also worth noting that this is going to be an organic, evolving agreement, major negotiations come around every five years, which just so happens to synchronise with the EU elections. If you wanted Brexit to mean the UK is out of the EU, then yes, you've got that, but the gravitational pull between the two doesn't vanish overnight, and we'll be negotiating with the EU forever. Literally forever.

There's a lot of 'boring' stuff in there, that's also very important, such as data sharing and security, we'll be renegotiating that on an ongoing basis.

It's strange in a way as both Leavers and Remainers have cause to be content on some level, but discontented in others.

For Leavers the UK is out of the EU, but very much still aligning with the EU in all sorts of key areas and we're basically going to track what the EU does without influencing its decisions, but hey, we're out of the EU and doing it as a SOVEREIGN NATION. Yes we'll take an economic hit, but it's worth it for < insert Daily Mail headline here >.

For Remainers the UK is out of the EU, but we have a Deal which provides a framework upon which to rebuild co-operation and trust over the years, and in many regards we're still going to be doing what the EU does anyway. As a country we'll get poorer, but we've avoided the catastrophe of No Deal.

One could legitimately ask the question what the bloody point of it all is.

Anyway, here it is if you want to read it for yourself:

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.


View attachment 147996

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There's a lot of this sort of stuff going on @sufferinsilence

It's what I've referred to previously as 'The Brexit Of Small Things', which is where the world doesn't end overnight (and no one ever said it would), and particularly with a Deal (albeit a very shit, very thin deal), the worst of what would have happened with a No Deal scenario has been avoided.

However, the problems are starting to pile up and some people are feeling them already. Many EU companies have stopped trading with the UK already, many UK businesses (not just the fishermen) are now realising what a nightmare it is to deal with the EU, and there is far more to come.

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The 'Brexit Of Small Things' and not so small things continues. There are shortages of some foodstuffs in NI and it looks like the UK really dropped the ball on something rather dull called 'Rules Of Origin' which is creating an absolute nightmare for UK businesses, and has led to many of them moving their EU hubs to other other countries (ones that are in the EU).

Fishing is turning into a bombsite because guess what, we sell most of the fish we catch to the EU, and it's become a hellscape of red-tape since the end of transition.

There will be lots of this, none of them will be a killer blow, but each will be a wound that will damage the UK's economy and its position in the world. We will be smaller, weaker, and diminished.

Oh yes and individuals and companies alike are finding there are lots more forms to fill in and bills to pay.



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Fishing update. UK fishermen are getting utterly wrecked by Brexit, and guess what, there isn't a massive queue of Brits wanting to eat mackerel and langoustines.

Another story that's starting to come through is that freight volumes UK<>EU overall are massively down, we're sending/selling less stuff to the EU, and vice versa, and there's nothing to replace it.

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You just trim your fish and chips habits a little bit, within few years all happily eat fresh and healthy langoustine salads instead of fish and chips :) Happily this fishing think if i remember right was just really really small industry so even totally losing it wouldn't make permanent damage for UK (if it's some 1% of GDP)?
 
'We can't export anything to the EU, it's a nightmare, we've lost all the stock we've sent this week, Brexit is the gift that just keeps giving, it's going to put me out of business'

 
'We can't export anything to the EU, it's a nightmare, we've lost all the stock we've sent this week, Brexit is the gift that just keeps giving, it's going to put me out of business'



This points to either bad red tape and systems implemented by uk govt, and not at the behest of the EU, or Boris got a crap deal for the uk fishermen.

I thought the IOM did a roaring trade with the EU, selling them its kippers etc, if so I wonder what the paperwork situation is, seeing as you are not in the EU ? [is trade between eu and iom free trade, no tariffs, no paperwork etc...?]
 
The fishermen weren't the only group that Johnson threw under the bus, Northern Ireland has been well and truly stuffed too.

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Industry figures speak with derision about Mr Lewis’s denial of that reality. One of the printable responses from a senior businessman is that “anyone who claims the process isn’t cumbersome and complicated hasn’t tried to do it”.

In fact, the first week of the new border has actually largely involved officials turning a blind eye to widespread infringements of the new rules. On Wednesday, Northern Ireland’s chief vet, Robert Huey, was blunt about what happened over recent days. Drawing on the famous words of the 19th century Prussian general Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, he told a Stormont committee: “We had a plan and it didn’t survive first contact with the enemy.”

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A bunch of tired old discredited tropes, spouted by the usual motley collection of talking heads.

Gotcha.

Daniel Hannan, for god's sake. The man who pretended he was going on a patriotic walk through the countryside and used stock photographs to illustrate his imaginary ramble with.

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Well not really, the EU will get on fine without is, we've just converted what was our UK mainline 'EU train station' into a little Englander branch line that doesn't go anywhere.

Fortunately there are more BREXIT DIVIDENDS incoming.

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The Road Haulage Association, the trade body representing road transport and freight logistics operators, told the Standard on Friday the “real extent of the impact this red tape is having on industry and businesses” will only start to be felt in the coming weeks.

Traffic through the port of Dover is currently down 85% from its 2019 average.

RHA spokesperson Paul Mummery said: “We are not trying to be doom-mongers, but this is just the tip of the iceberg.
“The volumes for import export are at the lowest point in the year anyway, and it is probably even quieter than usual, because the feedback we are getting from the industry is that firms were stockpiling before the Brexit deadline.

“When volumes of freight movement get back to normal levels, and they are set to start rising from next week, we will start seeing the real extent of the impact this red tape is having on industry and businesses.

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EU/UK trade is starting to fall apart, many EU purchasers of UK goods are going elsewhere, and there many eager companies in other EU countries more than happy to take the business from us.

Many UK companies are finding it intolerably difficult to trade with the EU.

And this is going to get worse.



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One example of what selling fish to the EU now looks like, as we are FREE OF THE RED TAPE OF BRUSSELS.

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Wasn't that fishing thing near to 0% of UK GDP and still it's almost daily used hear as an example about the catastrophic situation? Wouldn't yet find it either end of the world if many haven't get along with new procedures in less than two weeks time since they came in place, obviously it looks with these examples that planning and forecasting changes has been really poor in many companies (only can say about ones posted to this thread who have totally fcked up their businesses, there was quite many years to prepare and now everything comes as surprise...).

Maybe they get better within next few years if they didn't do anything to prepare this since Brexit won referendum, if people who run these businesses do it by slogans in busses and tv shows, god bless them in competition in real-world...
 
They didn't have years to prepare though Slottery, the deal was only finalised right at the end of December. Some things were known and could be prepared for, but fundamentally the whole thing was up in the air until the end of last month.

Yes the referendum was back in 2016, but the actual Brexit we ended up getting wasn't known until six days before it actually happened.

Many businesses were simply trying to survive 2020 as it is with Covid, they simply had no spare capacity or resource to prepare for an unknown Brexit as well.

Also remember the lies of the Brexit campaign itself.

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Would just have thought that many would have prepared themselves for many possible different scenarios which could be possible to happen, from no deal to everything stays same and everything from the middle.

edit: of course there are challenges and things are worse for many but believe that most can sort their problems somehow and stay alive.
 
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Did my first big shop since December 21st. The shelves were bare, everything was stuck on lorries, no fresh veg, no meat. Then I woke up at home with a full shop, everything I normally buy was there. It seems some stuff has been getting through Dover after all. :laugh::laugh::laugh:
 
Stuff will be getting in reasonably unimpeded, not least because we've basically decided to just wave everything through for six months. NI is in a much stickier situation as they're still inside the single market and a lot of stuff is now getting stopped, and there are shortages of some products on the shelves.

Just because you can still buy everything you want from Tesco doesn't mean that UK businesses aren't suffering horrendous strife, added cost, paperwork and red-tape in dealing with the EU, with many of them now facing ruination.
 
Here is a bit of a paradox for remainers who are also fully paid up supporters of the covid measures.
The EU have been so frozen by delays,in fighting,red tape and selfishness among its member states that the UK has thousands more French living in London alone than have had the vaccine in France.
Still,we could always send the EU Cod Liver Oil capsules to tide them over?

Edit. I was going to use the word Oxymoron but I knew where using that would lead too :p
 
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Many businesses were simply trying to survive 2020 as it is with Covid, they simply had no spare capacity or resource to prepare for an unknown Brexit as well.

What the heck has Covid to do with not having the resource? Or can this preparing not get done by working from home?
 
This is all speculation and worry at the moment.

Dover is always busy and the queues are the effects of Covid restrictions i would assume.

The Rules Of Origin look like a change for some businesses but not all. They also encourage our own exports - what you need for a push on GDP.

Too early to see any real effects yet isnt it? Apart from the fisherman moaning but both sides have always felt hard done by and been passionate.
 
Stuff will be getting in reasonably unimpeded, not least because we've basically decided to just wave everything through for six months. NI is in a much stickier situation as they're still inside the single market and a lot of stuff is now getting stopped, and there are shortages of some products on the shelves.

Just because you can still buy everything you want from Tesco doesn't mean that UK businesses aren't suffering horrendous strife, added cost, paperwork and red-tape in dealing with the EU, with many of them now facing ruination.
Is NI in a stickier situation? funny that because I was in tescos in Newtownards today and there was no empty shelfs loads of fruit/veg etc.
 
Just a short one,

as you know I voted brexit etc..

anyhow the past few months it’s astonishing how many sites, new builds etc ive been on that have been solely funded by the EU, I’m talking almost all of them..

just hoping now we left there is something in place to replace what we lost regards the above.

many projects I’m now managing are massive, one will be the biggest high rise in manchester, guess whom paid and funded it? The EU and it’s projects..

this is paid for and signed off so no issues, but what about future projects?

as a massive advocate of brexit I’m happy to say work wise I may of shot myself in the foot.
 
Just a short one,

as you know I voted brexit etc..

anyhow the past few months it’s astonishing how many sites, new builds etc ive been on that have been solely funded by the EU, I’m talking almost all of them..

just hoping now we left there is something in place to replace what we lost regards the above.

many projects I’m now managing are massive, one will be the biggest high rise in manchester, guess whom paid and funded it? The EU and it’s projects..

this is paid for and signed off so no issues, but what about future projects?

as a massive advocate of brexit I’m happy to say work wise I may of shot myself in the foot.
No, the EU did NOT fund it, the UK taxpayer did, by paying £10bn into the E-USSR, of which they grudgingly gave us about half back in 'grants' where they saw fit as to how the UK taxpayers should spend their own money.
 
No, the EU did NOT fund it, the UK taxpayer did, by paying £10bn into the E-USSR, of which they grudgingly gave us about half back in 'grants' where they saw fit as to how the UK taxpayers should spend their own money.
Fair point.

only going on when I get said projects, I get the budgeting etc from the start..

also what we have whilst said project is ongoing.

I’ve now enough work on paper to see me into retirement (in theory)

but it’s after these projects, they are officially EU funded, I’ve seen it.

where will the other funding come from?
 
Fair point.

only going on when I get said projects, I get the budgeting etc from the start..

also what we have whilst said project is ongoing.

I’ve now enough work on paper to see me into retirement (in theory)

but it’s after these projects, they are officially EU funded, I’ve seen it.

where will the other funding come from?
UK funded, via the EU.

The UK now decides where those regional grants (which is what you have there, regeneration etc.) go. Some they may retain, some will be changed and some new ones could replace the ones the 'EU paid for' that have been halted. Who knows? This is where your local government comes in, i.e. a bit of democracy is thrown into the mix which was an anathema to the old EU.
 
UK funded, via the EU.

The UK now decides where those regional grants (which is what you have there, regeneration etc.) go. Some they may retain, some will be changed and some new ones could replace the ones the 'EU paid for' that have been halted. Who knows? This is where your local government comes in, i.e. a bit of democracy is thrown into the mix which was an anathema to the old EU.
Yeah get that,

just a tad daunting when your faced with where it comes from exactly to where is it going to come from.

hope we thrive I really do, in fairness since I re trained my sector has never been as busy, infact it’s booming and they are throwing money at us..

but this is on projects and contracts already paid for and signed off with most things in place, that said we had zero issues for goods on any site thus far regarding delivery from europe.

maybe over anxious.
 
No, the EU did NOT fund it, the UK taxpayer did, by paying £10bn into the E-USSR, of which they grudgingly gave us about half back in 'grants' where they saw fit as to how the UK taxpayers should spend their own money.

As reductive and disingenuous an outlook as ever there dunover :)

A lot of these builds were done through EU regeneration funds and other socially aware projects designed to spend money on neglected areas of the country, and indeed in many cases directed funds into projects that would never have been funded directly by the UK government.

We can argue the numbers endlessly and never agree, but several studies have shown that the economic damage caused by Brexit has already outstripped all our contributions to the EU over the entire course of our membership.

As for Ben's question about what will replace the spend of these EU projects, that in many cases have regenerated parts of the UK that were crying out for the investment, the Tories are notoriously bad at spending money on areas that don't vote for them (which also tend to be poorer areas), so I expect vast swathes of the North and other left-leaning regions will just get fucked again.

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As reductive and disingenuous an outlook as ever there dunover :)

A lot of these builds were done through EU regeneration funds and other socially aware projects designed to spend money on neglected areas of the country, and indeed in many cases directed funds into projects that would never have been funded directly by the UK government.

We can argue the numbers endlessly and never agree, but several studies have shown that the economic damage caused by Brexit has already outstripped all our contributions to the EU over the entire course of our membership.

As for Ben's question about what will replace the spend of these EU projects, that in many cases have regenerated parts of the UK that were crying out for the investment, the Tories are notoriously bad at spending money on areas that don't vote for them (which also tend to be poorer areas), so I expect vast swathes of the North and other left-leaning regions will just get fucked again.

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In fairness chop, a lot of the new builds I’m on are actually social housing.

hence my concern about funding.
 
In fairness chop, a lot of the new builds I’m on are actually social housing.

hence my concern about funding.

Yes, the EU regeneration funds were disbursed very heavily towards projects of that nature, stuff that isn't very 'glamorous' and is often neglected, but has a great societal value, and is generally targeted at poorer areas and/or stuff like social housing.

It is not clear at all that they will be replaced by the UK government, hence reports such as this.

So yes, technically we do regain 'control' of the spend, but you're then relying on the kind and generous nature of a bunch of multi-millionaire Tories to, for example, help out poor people with social housing.

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