BJ Streak at SandsOftheCaribbean

[caruso]

Yes Eek, but the same tool is used to establish the probability, whatever the hypothesis in question is. 3 SDs wouldn't have done it as proof of seconds dealing; 6.83 (I was close) proved the matter conclusively:

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and Michael made some comments in a thread I posted back then:

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(That thread has been LOCKED???)

That is unreal

Put in context with the "absolute" proof of Casino Bar: you'd need a run of 36 consecutive losses to equal the same level of improbability that Casino Bar achieved. Two card's experience comes in the twilight zone of 1) extremely unconvincing game play but 2) it won't hold up in court because it's just not awful enough.

 

[sw2003]

I thought that Casinobar was nailed by a specific procedure for determining whether they were dealing seconds.

I'm sure I recall the Wiz writing about it.

Yes Casinobar was nailed with a 6 units SD phenomenon when it came to whether dealer busting while player was hold 12--16 vs dealer having a small initial card if remember correctly.

 

[Clayman]

The prob. of 22 losing hands is ... a little short of one in eleven million....
And FTR, Two Card's 22 hand dry run comes in at just over 4 SDs.

Thanks for posting your logs two-card. Such streaks have a perverse beauty to me just knowing they actually do happen, even with perfect play. Not sure I would have believed it otherwise.

I just found it interesting how a 1 in 11,000,000 event, when looked at from the perspective of losing 23 units in 22 hands, becomes a 1 in 52,000 event of losing that much or more in 22 hands. Or about 4 SD's, as Caruso says. Looked at from that point of view, it's not too much different than getting a Royal Flush. I guess there are lots of other ways to lose 23 units in 22 hands than the method you chose! Try not to find one though